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Tsunami preparedness and resilience: Evacuation logistics and time estimations
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Tsunami Squares simulation of megathrust-generated waves: Application to the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami
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Post Fukushima tsunami simulations for Malaysian coasts
The recent recurrences of mega tsunamis in the Asian region have rekindled concern regarding potential tsunamis that could inflict severe damage to affected coastal facilities and communities. The 11 March 2011 Fukushima tsunami that crippled nuclear power plants in Northern Japan has further raised the level of caution. The recent discovery of petroleum reserves in the coastal water surrounding Malaysia further ignites the concern regarding tsunami hazards to petroleum facilities located along affected coasts. Working in a group, federal government agencies seek to understand the dynamics of tsunami and their impacts under the coordination of the Malaysian National Centre for Tsunami Research, Malaysian Meteorological Department. Knowledge regarding the generation, propagation and runup of tsunami would provide the scientific basis to address safety issues. An in-house tsunami simulation models known as TUNA has been developed by the authors to assess tsunami hazards along affected beaches so that mitigation measures could be put in place. Capacity building on tsunami simulation plays a critical role in the development of tsunami resilience. This paper aims to first provide a simple introduction to tsunami simulation towards the achievement of tsunami simulation capacity building. The paper will also present several scenarios of tsunami dangers along affected Malaysia coastal regions via TUNA simulations to highlight tsunami threats. The choice of tsunami generation parameters reflects the concern following the Fukushima tsunami.
Using GPS to Detect Imminent Tsunamis
A promising method of detecting imminent tsunamis and estimating their destructive potential involves the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) data in addition to seismic data. Application of the method is expected to increase the reliability of global tsunami-warning systems, making it possible to save lives while reducing the incidence of false alarms. Tsunamis kill people every year. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed about 230,000 people. The magnitude of an earthquake is not always a reliable indication of the destructive potential of a tsunami. The 2004 Indian Ocean quake generated a huge tsunami, while the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) quake did not, even though both were initially estimated to be of the similar magnitude. Between 2005 and 2007, five false tsunami alarms were issued worldwide. Such alarms result in negative societal and economic effects. GPS stations can detect ground motions of earthquakes in real time, as frequently as every few seconds. In the present method, the epicenter of an earthquake is located by use of data from seismometers, then data from coastal GPS stations near the epicenter are used to infer sea-floor displacements that precede a tsunami. The displacement data are used in conjunction with local topographical data and an advanced theory to quantify the destructive potential of a tsunami on a new tsunami scale, based on the GPS-derived tsunami energy, much like the Richter Scale used for earthquakes. An important element of the derivation of the advanced theory was recognition that horizontal sea-floor motions contribute much more to generation of tsunamis than previously believed. The method produces a reliable estimate of the destructive potential of a tsunami within minutes typically, well before the tsunami reaches coastal areas. The viability of the method was demonstrated in computational tests in which the method yielded accurate representations of three historical tsunamis for which well-documented ground-motion measurements were available. Development of a global tsunami-warning system utilizing an expanded network of coastal GPS stations was under consideration at the time of reporting the information for this article.
Sedimentological effects of tsunamis, with particular reference to impact-generated and volcanogenic waves
Impulse-generated waves (tsunamis) may be produced, at varying scales and global recurrence intervals (RI), by several processes. Meteorite-water impacts will produce tsunamis, and asteroid-scale impacts with associated mega-tsunamis may occur. A bolide-water impact would undoubtedly produce a major tsunami, whose sedimentological effects should be recognizable. Even a bolide-land impact might trigger major submarine landslides and thus tsunamis. In all posulated scenarios for the K/T boundary event, then, tsunamis are expected, and where to look for them must be determined, and how to distinguish deposits from different tsunamis. Also, because tsunamis decrease in height as they move away from their source, the proximal effects will differ by perhaps orders of magnitude from distal effects. Data on the characteristics of tsunamis at their origin are scarce. Some observations exist for tsunamis generated by thermonuclear explosions and for seismogenic tsunamis, and experimental work was conducted on impact-generated tsunamis. All tsunamis of interest have wave-lengths of 0(100) km and thus behave as shallow-water waves in all ocean depths. Typical wave periods are 0(10 to 100) minutes. The effect of these tsunamis can be estimated in the marine and coastal realm by calculating boundary shear stresses (expressed as U*, the shear velocity). An event layer at the K/T boundary in Texas occurs in mid-shelf muds. Only a large, long-period wave with a wave height of 0(50) m, is deemed sufficient to have produced this layer. Such wave heights imply a nearby volcanic explosion on the scale of Krakatau or larger, or a nearby submarine landslide also of great size, or a bolide-water impact in the ocean.
A Case Study in the Application of TSUNAMI-3D - Part 1, Multigroup
The use of the sensitivity and uncertainty tool suite within SCALE, known as the TSUNAMI suite, has grown following its initial introduction more than a decade ago. Proper use of these tools provides a more complete understanding of system responses to perturbations, especially in the area of nuclear cross section uncertainties. Recent advances within TSUNAMI have added generalized perturbation theory to the k{sub eff} sensitivity capability that was included in TSUNAMI originally. The generation of sensitivity data is encouraged in the review process for new critical experiment requests sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) to demonstrate that the proposed experiment will satisfy the identified data need. Many individuals participate in this process, but many analysts have not received proper training in the use of the TSUNAMI tools. The adjoint perturbation theory used to calculate sensitivities is not typically included in nuclear engineering curricula, leaving inexperienced engineers particularly at risk for incorrect use of the tools. The first step in the use of the TSUNAMI tools is the generation of a sensitivity data file (SDF), which contains all of the energy-dependent sensitivity data generated for a model. Most often, the SDF is generated from a three-dimensional (3D) model using either the KENO V.a or KENO-VI code within the TSUNAMI-3D sequence. The sensitivity data generated in TSUNAMI-3D must be accurate for correct quantification of system similarity or any other use of the sensitivity data. The sensitivities calculated by TSUNAMI can be affected by many of the input parameters, cross section processing models, and geometry modeling techniques used within the TSUNAMI-3D input. Fortunately, the total sensitivity of the most important nuclides can be confirmed simply by using direct perturbation (DP) calculations. Confirmation of the total sensitivity of these important nuclides provides confidence that the flux and importance function calculated within the TSUNAMI sequence will yield accurate sensitivities for all nuclides, reactions, and energies of interest. This process is essentially identical for the multigroup (MG) methods and the continuous-energy (CE) methods introduced in SCALE 6.2. This paper discusses the use of DP calculations and provides a case study to confirm that accurate sensitivities are generated by TSUNAMI-3D for a particular benchmark experiment. A companion paper provides a similar case study applying the CE TSUNAMI capability to the same critical experiment. (authors)
A Case Study in the Application of TSUNAMI-3D - Part 2, Continuous Energy
The use of the sensitivity and uncertainty tool suite within SCALE, which is known as the TSUNAMI suite, has grown following its initial introduction more than a decade ago. Proper use of this tool provides a more complete understanding of system responses to perturbations, especially in the area of nuclear cross section uncertainties. Recent advances within TSUNAMI have added generalized perturbation theory to the k{sub eff} sensitivity capability that was included in TSUNAMI originally. The sensitivities can also be used to quantify the similarity of two systems. As an example, calculated sensitivities can be combined with cross section uncertainties to determine the similarity index ck. The generation of sensitivity data is encouraged in the review process for new critical experiment requests sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) to demonstrate that the proposed experiment will satisfy the identified data need. Many analysts participate in this process, but many have not received proper training in the use of the TSUNAMI tools. The adjoint perturbation theory used to calculate sensitivities is not typically included in nuclear engineering curricula, leaving inexperienced engineers particularly at risk for incorrect use of the tools. The first step in the use of the TSUNAMI tools is the generation of a sensitivity data file (SDF), which contains all of the energy-dependent sensitivity data generated for a model. Most often, the SDF is generated from a three-dimensional (3D) model using either the KENO V.a or KENO-VI code within the TSUNAMI-3D sequence. The sensitivity data generated in TSUNAMI-3D must be accurate for correct quantification of system similarity or any other use of the sensitivity data. The sensitivities calculated by TSUNAMI can be affected by many of the input parameters, cross section processing models, and geometry modeling techniques used within the TSUNAMI-3D input. Fortunately, the total sensitivity of the most important nuclides can be confirmed simply by using direct perturbation (DP) calculations. Confirmation of the total sensitivity of these important nuclides provides confidence that the flux and importance function calculated within the TSUNAMI sequence will yield accurate sensitivities for all nuclides, reactions, and energies of interest. This process is essentially identical for multigroup (MG) and continuous-energy (CE) methods introduced in SCALE 6.2. This paper discusses the use of direct perturbation calculations and provides a case study in the use of DP calculations to confirm accurate sensitivities generated by the CE CLUTCH methods in TSUNAMI-3D for a particular benchmark experiment. A companion paper provides a similar case study applying the MG TSUNAMI capability to the same critical experiment. (authors)
Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai
The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.
Observing Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances Caused by Tsunamis Using GPS TEC Measurements
Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following two recent seismic events: the American Samoa earthquake of September 29, 2009, and the Chile earthquake of February 27, 2010. Fluctuations in TEC correlated in time, space, and wave properties with these tsunamis were observed in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with wavelengths and periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the tsunamis in certain locations, but not in others. Where variations are observed, the typical amplitude tends to be on the order of 1% of the background TEC value. Variations with amplitudes ~ 0.1 - 0.2 TECU are observable with periods and timing affiliated with the tsunami. These observations are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement in some locations, though there are cases when the model predicts an observable tsunami-driven signature and none is observed. These TEC variations are not always seen when a tsunami is present, but in these two events the regions where a strong ocean tsunami was observed did coincide with clear TEC observations, while a lack of clear TEC observations coincided with smaller tsunami amplitudes. There exists the potential to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for early warning systems.
Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali
Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.
Sedimentary deposits study of the 2006 Java tsunami, in Pangandaran, West Java (preliminary result)
The 2006 Java Earthquake (Mw 7.2) has generated a tsunami that reached Pangandaran coastal plain with 9.7 m above sea level height of wave. In 2014 we examined the tsunami deposit exposed in shallow trenches along a∼300 m at 5 transect from shoreline to inland on Karapyak and Madasari, Pangandaran. We documented stratigraphically and sedimentologically, the characteristics of Java Tsunami deposit on Karapyak and Madasari and compared both sediments. In local farmland a moderately-sorted, brown soil is buried by a poorly-sorted, grey, medium-grained sand-sheet. The tsunami deposit was distinguished from the underlying soil by a pronounced increase in grain size that becomes finner upwards and landwards. Decreasing concentration of coarse size particles with distance toward inland are in agreement with grain size analysis. The thickest tsunami deposit is about 25 cm found at 84 m from shoreline in Madasari and about 15 cm found at 80 m from shoreline in Karapyak. The thickness of tsunami deposits in some transect become thinner landward but in some other transect lack a consistent suggested strongly affected by local topography. Tsunami deposits at Karapyak and Madasari show many similarities. Both deposits consist of coarse sand that sharply overlies a finer sandy soil. The presence mud drapes and other sedimentary structure like graded bedding, massive beds, mud clasts in many locations shows a dynamics process of tsunami waves. The imbrication coarse and shell fragments of the 2006 Java, tsunami deposits also provide information about the curent direction, allowing us to distinguish run up deposits from backwash deposits.
A Review of TSUNAMI Applications
The TSUNAMI-1D and TSUNAMI-3D sequences for generating k eff sensitivity coefficients were first released in SCALE 5 in 2004. Several other tools were introduced in the same release, including primarily the TSUNAMI-IP code for uncertainty analysis and similarity assessments. The TSUNAMI sequences added capabilities for identifying important reactions and data for systems using sensitivity coefficients and also introduced new quantitative tools for rigorously assessing the similarity of systems. Over time, the capabilities of these tools have grown, and their use has expanded into other areas such as nuclear data assessment and nuclear covariance data testing. This paper discusses applications of the TSUNAMI tools for sensitivity calculations, sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U)-based validation, and nuclear data testing. This paper is one of a series of papers at this conference on the development and use of TSUNAMI tools. The other papers address the development of the TSUNAMI methods and the use of TSUNAMI for critical experiment design and optimization.
CE TSUNAMI-3D Algorithm Improvements in SCALE 6.2
The TSUNAMI (Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation) capabilities within the SCALE code system make use of sensitivity coefficients for an extensive number of criticality safety applications such as quantifying the data-induced uncertainty in the eigenvalue of critical systems, assessing the neutronic similarity between different systems, quantifying computational biases, and guiding nuclear data adjustment studies. The continuous-energy (CE) TSUNAMI-3D code is a new tool included in SCALE 6.2 that allows for eigenvalue and generalized response sensitivity calculations using high-fidelity CE Monte Carlo methods. This paper describes several improvements to CE TSUNAMI-3D beyond those previously published. These improvements primarily consist of - A multi-response capability for the CE TSUNAMI generalized response sensitivity calculation mode; and - Efficiency improvements in CE TSUNAMI's Iterated Fission Probability (IFP)-based algorithms. This paper documents several improvements to the CE TSUNAMI-3D sensitivity algorithms included in the SCALE 6.2 release. These improvements have enabled the simulation of multiple GPT responses within a single CE TSUNAMI simulation, a feature that increases the memory footprint of the simulations by approximately 1-3% per response and the runtime by approximately 1-2%, per response. These algorithmic improvements have also significantly improved the computational efficiency of CE TSUNAMI IFP-based sensitivity calculations, reducing the memory footprints approximately by a factor of 3 and the simulation runtimes by 10-70%. (authors)
A Medium‐Sized Paleo‐Tsunami Reconstruction by a Deep Neural Network Processing Sedimentary Deposits
Abstract Reconstructing the magnitude and recurrence time of tsunamis, one of the most destructive and unpredictable natural hazards impacting coastal communities, is essential. While major tsunamis are the most studied due to their disastrous impact, small/medium tsunamis (SMTs) are much more frequent and can still significantly impact the coast. Therefore, SMTs potentially provide an extensive archive of information preserved in the geological record. Analyzing the deposits of small/medium paleo‐tsunamis (SMPTs) opens a window into when their direct observation was unavailable. However, deposits of SMPTs are often degraded, traditional sediment deposition inversion models might fail. Recent research has shown that Deep Neural Networks (DNN) can effectively reconstruct the flow conditions of major tsunamis from their deposits. We evaluate the effectiveness of this approach in reconstructing the characteristics of a recent medium size tsunami (2006 Java) and of a medium paleo‐tsunami (1929 Grand Banks). We successfully reconstruct the flow characteristics of the 2006 Java event and show that an inversion of comparable quality is possible for the 1929 Grand Banks tsunami, despite greater uncertainties due to the deposit degradation. Our research shows that Machine Learning has the potential to unseal the meaning of data of thousands SMPTs.
Observing Tsunamis in the Ionosphere Using Ground Based GPS Measurements
Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following recent seismic events, including the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011. We observe fluctuations correlated in time, space, and wave properties with this tsunami in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the Tohoku tsunami near the epicenter, at Hawaii, and near the west coast of North America. Disturbance magnitudes are 1-10% of the background TEC value. Observations near the epicenter are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement. The potential exists to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for future early warning systems.
First tsunami gravity wave detection in ionospheric radio occultation data
After the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami off the coast of Tohoku, the ionospheric signature of the displacements induced in the overlying atmosphere has been observed by ground stations in various regions of the Pacific Ocean. We analyze here the data of radio occultation satellites, detecting the tsunami-driven gravity wave for the first time using a fully space-based ionospheric observation system. One satellite of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) recorded an occultation in the region above the tsunami 2.5 h after the earthquake. The ionosphere was sounded from top to bottom, thus providing the vertical structure of the gravity wave excited by the tsunami propagation, observed as oscillations of the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC). The observed vertical wavelength was about 50 km, with maximum amplitude exceeding 1 total electron content unit when the occultation reached 200 km height. We compared the observations with synthetic data obtained by summation of the tsunami-coupled gravity normal modes of the Earth/Ocean/atmosphere system, which models the associated motion of the ionosphere plasma. These results provide experimental constraints on the attenuation of the gravity wave with altitude due to atmosphere viscosity, improving the understanding of the propagation of tsunami-driven gravity waves in the upper atmosphere. They demonstrate that the amplitude of the tsunami can be estimated to within 20% by the recorded ionospheric data.