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DOE OSTI2026

The 2025 Evaluation of Experimental Thermonuclear Reaction Rates (ETR25)

This work describes the formalism for estimating thermonuclear reaction rates for astrophysical applications, emphasizing modern statistical approaches such as Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian models. We discuss related topics including the calculation of resonance energies from nuclear Q values, indirect estimates of particle partial widths, and matching of reaction rates at elevated temperatures to statistical model results. We have evaluated available experimental data on cross sections, resonance energies and strengths, partial widths, lifetimes, spin-parities, and spectroscopic factors. Based on these results, we have estimated numerical values of 78 experimental charged-particle thermonuclear reaction rates for target nuclei in the A = 2–40 mass region, for temperatures ranging from 1 MK to 10 GK. For each reaction, three rate values are provided: low, median, and high, corresponding to the 16th, 50th, and 84th percentiles, respectively, of the cumulative reaction rate probability density distribution. Additionally, we present the factor uncertainty of each rate at each temperature grid point. These results enable users to sample the reaction rate probability density in nucleosynthesis calculations, facilitating uncertainty estimates of nuclidic abundances. The rates presented here refer to their laboratory values. For use in stellar model simulations, these values need to be corrected for the effects of thermal excitations of the interacting nuclei. For each reaction, we include graphs that illustrate the fractional contributions to the overall reaction rate along with the associated uncertainty. These visuals are designed to assist both stellar modelers and nuclear experimentalists by identifying the primary sources of rate uncertain=^texttx);ty at specific stellar temperatures. A graphical comparison with earlier Monte Carlo rates is also provided.

Nuclear astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Thermonuclear Reaction Rate Uncertainties on the Identification of Presolar Grains from Classical Novae

Approximately 30%–40% of classical novae generate dust between 20 and 100 days following the eruption. However, there has yet to be a definitive identification of presolar stardust grains originating from classical novae. While multiple studies have suggested a nova origin for specific grains, aligning simultaneously all measured isotopic ratios of a specific grain with those predicted from simulations remains challenging. Using Monte Carlo simulations, this work investigates how uncertainties in thermonuclear reaction rates influence the isotopic ratios predicted in simulations of classical novae, specifically impacting the identification of presolar grains. In particular, we address two questions: (i) What is the impact of uncertainties in reaction rates on the range of isotopic ratios predicted by classical nova simulations? (ii) Which reaction rate uncertainties most significantly influence the predicted abundance ratios in presolar grains? Our results show that current reaction rate uncertainties affect the isotopic ratios of 12 C/ 13 C, 14 N/ 15 N, 16 O/ 17 O, 16 O/ 18 O, 24 Mg/ 25 Mg, 24 Mg/ 26 Mg, 26 Al/ 27 Al, and 28 Si/ 29 Si by less than 20% in either carbon–oxygen or oxygen–neon (ONe) novae, especially when considering the mixing of matter throughout the entire envelope. However, the isotopic ratios of 28 Si/ 30 Si, 32 S/ 33 S, and 32 S/ 34 S in ONe novae are exceptions: their variability greatly exceeds a factor of 2 due to the uncertainties in the reaction rates of 30 P(p,γ) 31 S, 33 S(p,γ) 34 Cl, and 34 S(p,γ) 35 Cl, respectively. These results highlight the significant influence of specific reaction rates on the predicted abundance ratios and underscore the necessity for accurate nuclear measurements to reduce these uncertainties.

Classical novae↗

DOE OSTI2025

Elemental and Isotopic Yields from T Coronae Borealis: Predictions and Uncertainties

T Coronae Borealis (T CrB) is a symbiotic recurrent nova system expected to undergo its next outburst within the next 2 yr. Recent hydrodynamic simulations have predicted the nucleosynthetic yields for both carbon–oxygen (CO) and oxygen–neon (ONe) white-dwarf models, but without accounting for thermonuclear reaction rate uncertainties. We perform detailed Monte Carlo postprocessing nucleosynthesis calculations based on updated thermonuclear reaction rates and uncertainties from the 2025 evaluation. We quantify the resulting abundance uncertainties and identify the key nuclear reactions that dominate them. Our results show that both the CO and ONe nova models robustly produce characteristic CNO isotopes. More pronounced abundance differences emerge for elements with A ≥ 20. Sulfur is the most robust observational discriminator between the CO and ONe nova models, with a model-to-model difference of a factor of ≈30 and minimal sensitivity to reaction rate uncertainties. Neon, silicon, and phosphorus exhibit even larger abundance differences (factors of ≈150–250), providing strong diagnostic potential. While their predicted yields are subject to larger uncertainties, these remain smaller than the model-to-model differences, allowing these elements to serve as useful, though less precise, tracers of white-dwarf composition. Chlorine, argon, and potassium also differ between models, but the 1σ-abundance ranges for the CO and ONe models overlap, reducing their present usefulness as composition tracers. We find that only nine nuclear reactions dominate the abundance uncertainties of the most diagnostically important isotopes, and their influence is largely independent of the underlying white-dwarf composition. These results provide guidance for future experimental efforts and for interpreting ejecta compositions in the next eruption of T CrB.

Chemical Abundances↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian analysis of the 86 Sr ⁢(𝛼,𝛼) reaction to constrain the 86 Sr ⁢(𝛼,𝑛) cross section at astrophysical energies

The alpha optical model potential (𝛼-OMP ) is a phenomenological approach used to describe elastic scattering where multiple reaction channels are open. It is one of the most critical inputs for the calculation of thermonuclear reaction rates in explosive stellar environments, but uncertainties within the 𝛼-OMP lead to imprecise predictions hindering comparisons between calculations and observations. In order to improve the precision of the 𝛼-OMP, additional nuclear physics data are required. In this paper, a measurement of the 86 Sr (𝛼, 𝛼) elastic scattering cross section at multiple energies is reported. Here, a local optical potential is constructed via a fully Bayesian analysis of the elastic scattering data. The resulting uncertainties on the low-energy cross sections relevant to nuclear astrophysics are then calculated and shown to be on the order of 50%.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ab initio calculations of scattering and fusion reactions

We review recent advancements achieved within the ab initio no-core shell model with continuum (NCSMC), a unified first-principle (or, ab initio) approach to nuclear bound and continuum states. We highlight its application to reactions of astrophysical interests, including the 7 Be(p, γ) 8 B solar fusion and α-α scattering, and to the structure of the exotic 12 Be nucleus. Furthermore, our findings provide a solid foundation for integrating ab initio calculations with experimental measurements, allowing for more precise evaluations of key thermonuclear reaction rates at astrophysical energies, and offer new insights into the factors that contribute to the emergence of clustering.

Quaglioni, Sofia [Lawrence Livermore National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2024

Time-of-flight vs time-of-arrival in neutron spectroscopic measurements for high energy density plasmas

The neutron time-of-flight (nToF) diagnostic technique has a lengthy history in Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) and High Energy Density (HED) Science experiments. Its initial utility resulted from the simple relationship between the full width half maximum of the fusion peak signal in a distant detector and the burn averaged conditions of an ideal plasma producing the flux [Lehner and Pohl, Z. Phys. 207, 83–104 (1967)]. More recent precision measurements [Gatu-Johnson et al., Phys. Rev. E 94(8), 021202 (2016)] and theoretical studies [Munro, Nucl. Fusion 56, 035001 (2016)] have shown the spectrum to be more subtle and complicated, driving the desire for an absolute calibration of the spectrum to disambiguate plasma dynamics from the conditions producing thermonuclear reactions. In experiments where the neutron production history is not well measured, but the neutron signal is preceded by a concomitant flux of photons, the spectrum can be in situ calibrated using a set of collinear detectors to obtain a true “time-of-flight” measurement. This article presents the motivation and overview of this technique along with estimates of the experimental precision needed to make useful measurements in existing and future nToF systems such as the pulsed power Z-machine located in Albuquerque, NM, at Sandia National Laboratories.

Fusion experiments↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermonuclear 28 P(p, γ ) 29 S reaction rate and astrophysical implication in ONe nova explosion

An accurate 28 P(p, γ) 29 S reaction rate is crucial to defining the nucleosynthesis products of explosive hydrogen burning in ONe novae. Using the recently released nuclear mass of 29 S, together with a shell model and a direct capture calculation, we reanalyzed the 28 P(p, γ) 29 S thermonuclear reaction rate and its astrophysical implication. We focus on improving the astrophysical rate for 28 P(p, γ) 29 S based on the newest nuclear mass data. Our goal is to explore the impact of the new rate and associated uncertainties on the nova nucleosynthesis. We evaluated this reaction rate via the sum of the isolated resonance contribution instead of the previously used Hauser-Feshbach statistical model. The corresponding rate uncertainty at different energies was derived using a Monte Carlo method. Nova nucleosynthesis is computed with the 1D hydrodynamic code SHIVA. The contribution from the capture on the first excited state at 105.64 keV in 28 P is taken into account for the first time. We find that the capture rate on the first excited state in 28 P is up to more than 12 times larger than the ground-state capture rate in the temperature region of 2.5 × 10 7 K to 4 × 10 8 K, resulting in the total 28 P(p, γ) 29 S reaction rate being enhanced by a factor of up to 1.4 at ~1 × 10 9 K. In addition, the rate uncertainty has been quantified for the first time. It is found that the new rate is smaller than the previous statistical model rates, but it still agrees with them within uncertainties for nova temperatures. The statistical model appears to be roughly valid for the rate estimation of this reaction in the nova nucleosynthesis scenario. Using the 1D hydrodynamic code SHIVA, we performed the nucleosynthesis calculations in a nova explosion to investigate the impact of the new rates of 28 P(p, γ) 29 S. Our calculations show that the nova abundance pattern is only marginally affected if we use our new rates with respect to the same simulations but statistical model rates. Finally, the isotopes whose abundance is most influenced by the present 28 P(p, γ) 29 S uncertainty are 28 Si, 33,34 S, 35,37 Cl, and 36 Ar, with relative abundance changes at the level of only 3% to 4%.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Burn mode signatures enabled by high dynamic range fusion reaction history

The evolution of the fusion burn of a compressed inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosion gives information about the evolution of the temperature, mass, and volume of the hot spot. Currently, the fusion reaction history has been measured with about a decade of dynamic range, giving information about just the peak of the fusion burn. There are proposals for extending the dynamic range to 1000×, measuring the rising edge of the burn earlier in time. Using fusion hot spot theory and a set of ICF simulations, we identify and categorize different stages of fusion burn and what signatures could be measured. For ice layered implosions, the details, conditions, and dynamics of the fusion burn propagation could be observed. For double shell and OMEGA scale implosions, the evolution of the final compression and rebounding shock before ignition could be observed. Higher dynamic range expands investigation into the logarithmic derivative, α, as a signature of various mechanisms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Studies of localized mix and asymmetry caused by the stalk in inertial fusion experiments at OMEGA

In an inertially confined fusion experiment, a capsule of fusion fuel is compressed to high temperatures and densities using lasers, creating a hot plasma in which thermonuclear fusion reactions take place. To achieve efficient conversion of laser energy to fuel heating, the implosion must be as spherically symmetric as possible. One common source of asymmetry that degrades performance is the stalk and glue spot that hold the capsule in place before the experiment. The exact nature and magnitude of this perturbation had not been previously quantified. In this work, inertially confined fusion experiments were executed with an additional stalk on the capsule to measure and quantify the effect of the stalk and glue spot on the symmetry and performance. It is found that the stalk drives low-mode asymmetry by shadowing the laser drive on the part of the shell near the glue spot, enhancing the hot-spot velocity toward the stalk by 40–80 km/s and elongating the hot-spot along the stalk axis. It is also found that localized mix due to the additional stalk has a negligible effect on implosion performance. Two-dimensional radiation-hydrodynamic simulations using the xRAGE code reproduce the direction of the experimentally observed change to hot-spot velocity and implosion performance metrics, but not the observed elongation, suggesting that this feature results from an interaction between stalk perturbations and other preexisting asymmetry seeds, such as laser drive asymmetry.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Direct numerical simulations of three-component Rayleigh–Taylor mixing and an improved model for multicomponent reacting mixtures

We present direct numerical simulations of a three-layer Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) problem with a configuration based on the experiments of Suchandra & Ranjan ( J. Fluid Mech. , vol. 974, 2023, A35) and Jacobs & Dalziel ( J. Fluid Mech. , vol. 542, 2005, pp. 251–279). The problem consists of a layer of light fluid between two layers of heavy fluid with an Atwood number of 0.3. These simulations are first validated through comparison with available experimental data. The validated simulations are then utilized to analyse statistics in this three-component flow. First, length scales are examined utilizing spectra and two-point spatial correlations of velocity and species concentration fluctuations. Next, joint probability density functions (p.d.f.s) of species concentration are compared against several model p.d.f.s representing generalizations of the bivariate beta distribution. Notably, the joint p.d.f.s do not appear to be accurately described by a Dirichlet distribution, indicating the marginal distributions do not conform to a beta distribution. Finally, similarity of the present configuration to three-component mixing found in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) applications is exploited to develop and validate an improved model for the impact of multicomponent mixing on thermonuclear (TN) reaction rates. A single time instant from the present simulations is chosen for a TN burn calculation under the hypothetical assumption of ICF materials and temperatures. Total TN output from this second calculation is then compared against the prediction of the improved model. The new model is found to accurately predict TN reaction rates in both premixed and non-premixed configurations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the impact of an applied axial magnetic field on efficient current coupling on the Z machine

Magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) is an attractive concept for producing thermonuclear fusion reactions. The MagLIF platform involves the operation of Helmholtz coils to apply a 15 Tesla axial magnetic field to the load region, where a cylindrical, fuel-filled metal liner is imploded by a ∼ 2 0 MA current pulse. The fringe field from these coils extends into the transmission line that delivers the current to the target. We investigated the extent to which this applied field disturbs the nominal power flow within that transmission line. A simplified model of the geometry shows that adding the applied magnetic field results in magnetic field lines that connect the cathode to the anode, suggesting electrons may not be magnetically insulated in this region. Particle-in-cell simulations indicated the addition of the applied magnetic field would not significantly impact the current delivery to the load. Velocimetry was used to experimentally assess the current delivery with and without the applied magnetic field. We find no measurable effects of the applied field on current delivery in the configuration investigated in this study. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of 31 P levels near the proton threshold with nuclear resonance fluorescence and the impact on the 30 Si (𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 31 P thermonuclear rate

We investigated the nuclear structure of 31 P near the proton threshold using nuclear resonance fluorescence (NRF) to refine the properties of key resonances in the 30 Si (𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 31 P reaction, which is critical for nucleosynthesis in stellar environments. Excitation energies and spin-parities were determined for several states, including two unobserved resonances at 𝐸 𝑟 = 18.7keV and 𝐸 𝑟 = 50.5keV. The angular correlation analysis enabled the first unambiguous determination of the orbital angular momentum transfer for these states. These results provide a significant update to the 30 Si (𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 31 P thermonuclear reaction rate, with direct implications for models of nucleosynthesis in globular clusters and other astrophysical sites. The revised rate is substantially lower than previous estimates at temperatures below 200 MK, affecting predictions for silicon isotopic abundances in stellar environments. Furthermore, our work demonstrates the power of NRF in constraining nuclear properties, and provides a framework for future studies of low-energy resonances relevant to astrophysical reaction rates.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗

DOE OSTI2025

Solar fusion III: New data and theory for hydrogen-burning stars

In stars that lie on the main sequence in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram, like our Sun, hydrogen is fused to helium in a number of nuclear reaction chains and series, such as the proton-proton chain and the carbon-nitrogen-oxygen cycles. Precisely determined thermonuclear rates of these reactions lie at the foundation of the standard solar model. This review, the third decadal evaluation of the nuclear physics of hydrogen-burning stars, is motivated by the great advances made in recent years by solar neutrino observatories, putting experimental knowledge of the proton-proton (𝑝⁢𝑝)-chain neutrino fluxes in the few-percent precision range. The basis of the review is a one-week community meeting held in July 2022 in Berkeley, California, and many subsequent digital meetings and exchanges. The relevant reactions of solar and stellar hydrogen burning are reviewed here from both theoretical and experimental perspectives. Recommendations for the state of the art of the astrophysical 𝑆 factor and its uncertainty are formulated for each of them. Furthermore, several other topics of paramount importance for the solar model are reviewed as well: recent and future neutrino experiments, electron screening, radiative opacities, and current and upcoming experimental facilities. In addition to reaction-specific recommendations, general recommendations are also formed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Discrete Hankel Transform Approach to Nuclear Data Processing for Fusion Applications

This study introduces advancements to the numerical solutions employed in the processing of nuclear data for fusion applications. It leverages the convolution theorem and Fourier transform techniques to enhance computational efficiency and broaden applicability. Building upon a previously reported discrete Hankel transform approach for Doppler broadening, this work refines the solution of convolution integrals central to these applications. The methodology provides a general and unified framework for evaluating any convolution operation, regardless of whether the underlying problem involves temperature effects in nuclear reactions. The applicability to the nuclear data processing for fusion is demonstrated by deriving the convolution integrals for some of the fusion-related quantities. As before, the convolution operation utilizes a Gaussian-based kernel; however, the discrete Hankel transform of order $𝛼$ = $\frac{1}{2}$ is now applied to the forward Fourier transform of the nonkernel argument, rather than the inverse Fourier transform. This modification eliminates the need for the integration of the nonkernel, cross section–based function, which is a step that posed challenges for certain pointwise cross-section representations. It also removes the requirement for cross-section linearization. Optimized for graphics processing unit architectures, the approach significantly improves computational performance. These advancements are currently under evaluation as the foundation for the next-generation thermonuclear data file processing codes being developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Nuclear science and engineering↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding X-ray bursts via direct measurements of ( α , p ) reactions

X-ray bursts, which are thermonuclear explosions on neutron stars accreting mass from companion stars, are the most frequent stellar explosions. To understand the mechanisms behind these bursts, astrophysical models need to incorporate the reaction rates of key nuclear reactions occurring in these stellar environments. This, however, presents significant challenges due to the typically small cross sections of these reactions and the experimental complexities associated with the use of low-intensity radioactive beams. Consequently, most of these reaction rates remain unknown. However, recent advancements in radioactive ion beam facilities and experimental techniques have opened new opportunities to measure these crucial astrophysical reactions. Furthermore, this work explores these advances and highlights recent measurements relevant to X-ray bursts.

Avila, M. L. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗

DOE OSTI2024

Introduction to Special Issue on the Early History of Nuclear Fusion

This introductory paper to the special issue of Fusion Science and Technology commemorates early research on fusion conducted at Los Alamos (the singular entity denoted Los Alamos Laboratory/Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory/Los Alamos National Laboratory at different times is designated “Los Alamos” in this paper) in support of the eventual H-bomb program. We survey the historical origins of the thermonuclear program, what was known of fusion reactions at the outbreak of the war, and the remarkable breakthroughs involving particularly the prospect of deuterium-tritium (DT) reactions conducted during the war, and we summarize the papers in this volume. Much of the nuclear fusion technical history presented herein has not been previously reported. Papers describe aspects of fusion science during these days, on shock hydrodynamics and on electron-radiation coupling, and on nuclear physics including the discoveries of resonances in both the DT cross section and in the lithium tritium-breeding cross section. Three papers follow our colleague Mark Paris’s finding Arthur Ruhlig’s 1938 paper on the first observation of DT fusion: one on how it influenced subsequent Manhattan Project research, another on a modern calculation of that historic experiment, and a third that has repeated the experiment using modern experimental capabilities. Other papers discuss how the first H-bomb test, Ivy Mike, led to the discovery of the new elements einsteinium and fermium and how the DT fusion processes played a key role in our universe’s development after the Big Bang. We also present a paper that analyzes the pioneering Cambridge University 1934 experiment by Marcus Oliphant, Paul Harteck, and Ernest Rutherford where deuterium-deuterium fusion was first observed and that describes how Ernest Lawrence missed identifying fusion in 1933. Finally, we present a summary of early concepts for controlled fusion energy that grew out of wartime discussions at Los Alamos. The papers show how J. Robert Oppenheimer played a leading technical role in the early developments of the H-bomb, before his later opposition—our first paper in this issue addresses the U.S. Department of Energy’s 2022 vacation of the earlier 1954 decision to revoke his security clearance.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2024

How numerical simulations helped to achieve breakeven on the NIF

The inertial confinement fusion program relies upon detailed simulations with inertial confinement fusion (ICF) codes to design targets and to interpret the experimental results. These simulations treat as much physics from essential principles as is practical, including laser deposition, cross beam energy transfer, x-ray production and transport, nonlocal thermal equilibrium kinetics, thermal transport, hydrodynamic instabilities, thermonuclear burn, and transport of reaction products. Improvements in radiation hydrodynamic code capabilities and vast increases in computing power have enabled more realistic, accurate 3D simulations that treat all known asymmetry sources. We describe how numerical simulations helped to guide the program, assess the impediments to breakeven, and optimize every aspect of target design. A preshot simulation of the first National Ignition Facility experiment that surpassed breakeven predicted an increased yield that matches the experimental result, within the preshot predicted uncertainty, with a target gain of 1.5. We will cover the key developments in Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ICF codes that enabled these simulations and give specific examples of how they helped to guide the program.

Marinak, M. M. (ORCID:0009000331127696)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neural-Network-Enhanced COTSIM: Advancing Predictive Capabilities for Fast DIII-D Simulations

Sustaining fusion reactions in tokamaks requires heating plasma to thermonuclear temperatures while maintaining confinement and stability. Neutral beam injection (NBI) provides heating, current drive, torque, and fueling, while electron cyclotron (EC) waves are widely used for heating and current drive; together, these actuators shape the plasma current, temperature, and density profiles. The control-oriented tokamak simulator (COTSIM), a predictive, control-oriented code, has been enhanced with neural-network surrogates for transport and sources. Turbulent transport is predicted by MMMnet—a neural-network version of the updated multimode model (MMM 9.0.10)—with significantly reduced computation time relative to MMM; neoclassical transport follows the Chang–Hinton model. NUBEAMnet, a surrogate of the Monte Carlo NUBEAM module, predicts beam-driven heating, current, and torque. EC heating and current drive use a control-oriented, empirically scaled source model; plasma resistivity follows the Spitzer formulation; bootstrap current uses the Sauter model. Equilibrium is computed using both prescribed and fixed-boundary solvers (FBSs), and the pedestal structure is modeled with an empirical pedestal model. For a representative DIII-D discharge, COTSIM predicts electron and ion temperature and safety-factor profiles in close agreement with TRANSP predictive and interpretive simulations while extending predictions through the pedestal region to the plasma edge (versus 80% of the minor radius in TRANSP). Furthermore, the equivalent COTSIM simulation runs in under 3 min compared to about 2 h for TRANSP, enabling rapid scenario planning, optimization of tokamak operation, and between-pulse control design.

Control-oriented tokamak simulator (COTSIM)↗