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This presentation details the current project status and approach for the VTO funded project "Holistic Modeling of Future Transportation Energy Use and Emissions" using the TEMPO model.
The present report is intended to provide process flow diagrams (PFDs) and energy and mass balance data sheets for a U.S. industrial sector subset with which nuclear heat and power could be integrated—a subset that includes the oil refining, methanol and pulp and paper industries. Coupling options for integrating nuclear energy into these industries are quantitatively outlined for reference systems, and future work will extend this analysis in greater detail. Opportunities for integrating small modular nuclear reactors (SMNRs) were investigated for each of the industrial process configurations. Aspen HYSYS and Cycle-Tempo models for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor were developed to evaluate the proposed integration. This introductory evaluation provides a general description and assessment of the operating principles, reactor coolant core outlet temperature, and reactor size to be integrated with industry. The industrial processes of oil refining and the production of methanol, pulp and paper were simulated by using Aspen HYSYS, Aspen Plus, and the PRELIM (Petroleum Refinery Life Cycle Inventory Model) tool to develop process details. Cycle-Tempo models then extend the process modeling results to obtain net energy demands (e.g., heat, steam, and electricity) when accounting for process steam and waste heat recovery. This information is intended to foster the analysis of integrating an SMNR to decarbonize industrial facilities. The SMNR would provide reliable, competitive, and sustainable clean energy while reducing carbon emissions and other environmental impacts, such as water withdrawals, consumption, and contamination. The refining industry, exhibited in Figure ES1, is a leading consumer of fossil -fuel-based heat, power, and hydrogen in the U.S. industrial sector, generating over 164 million metric tons (MMT) of CO 2 emissions in 2023. The overall mass and energy pertaining to a generalized complex refinery in the United States is reflected in Figure ES1, along with energy metrics regarding integration with a nuclear power plant (NPP). Data sheets were developed to indicate the energy requirements for the overall refinery and each refinery process. The data sheet for the overall refinery is shown in Table ES2.
This presentation details the current project status and approach for the VTO funded project "National Impacts of Community-Level Strategies to Improve Convenience of Mobility" - a multi lab project integrating the POLARIS and TEMPO models.
This project advances the state-of-the-art in infrastructure analysis to better inform deployment strategies. It enhances NLR's EVI-X Suite, a set of tools supporting national network planning, local site design, and financial evaluation. These capabilities will position DOE to provide timely analysis and inform the strategic buildout of the national charging network. EVI-X development is closely coordinated with other DOE-funded efforts to ensure consistent, integrated use of key inputs and outputs, including EV adoption scenarios from NLR's TEMPO model.
As electric vehicle (EV) adoption continues to accelerate, we explore the implications of different adoption trajectories that achieve a full transition to EVs by 2050 for U.S. light-duty passenger vehicles (LDVs). Using a vetted transportation system model, we find that achieving 100% EV sales by 2040 would decrease tailpipe greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 90% between 2022 and 2050, leaving about 45 million gasoline vehicles on the road. Achieving 100% sales by 2035, tailpipe emissions decrease 93%, with about 28 million gasoline vehicles on the road in 2050 (9% of stock). Slower EV adoption, reaching 100% sales by 2045, would result in 69 million gasoline vehicles on the road in 2050. Fully electrifying passenger vehicles by 2050 would require a full transition to EVs sales in the 2030s coupled with either changes to mobility, or an accelerated stock turnover in the 2040s with additional 19–30% annual LDV sales.
This project advances the development and application of the TEMPO transportation energy systems model to support DOE analysis of evolving mobility futures. Recent work has focused on improving model transparency, performance, and fidelity through a redesigned software architecture and updated technology adoption scenarios aligned with the latest data and assumptions. Ongoing efforts aim to expand TEMPO's ability to assess transportation affordability and consumer decision-making, including vehicle ownership dynamics and distributional impacts across households. These enhancements position TEMPO to better inform policy and R&D decisions by providing more behaviorally realistic and policy-relevant insights into transportation energy use, technology adoption, and system-level outcomes.
Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.
When and where electric vehicle (EV) charging occurs has significant implications for power systems supporting widespread EV adoption, especially with high shares of wind and solar generation. This study extends previous works by leveraging detailed simulation models for EV adoption, EV use, EV charging, and bulk power system operations, and by linking them with methods for describing charging flexibility at both the individual vehicle and aggregate levels. This technical potential study focuses on how the value of EV managed charging (EVMC) changes depending on charging flexibility type (within-charging session or within-week scheduling), dispatch mechanism (direct load control or one of several price-based mechanisms), and managed charging participation rate. We show that naively aggregating EV charging flexibility from individual vehicles into megawatt-scale resources grossly overestimates the flexibility of the fleet, because such aggregate models can unrealistically pair, e.g., one already-fully-charged vehicle's ability to increase load with another already-charging vehicle's ability to accept more charge, effectively requesting a charging rate that is infeasible for the latter vehicle. We find per-vehicle bulk system value is highest at low participation rates for all dispatch mechanisms. Factoring in production cost savings, avoided firm capacity savings, and combustion-related power sector emissions savings, we estimate the value of EVMC at low participation rates (5%) to be $33/vehicle-year to $69/vehicle-yr for within-session charging flexibility and $40/vehicle-yr to $120/vehicle-yr for within-week charging flexibility in an envisioned 2038 New England power system and monetary value reported in 2016 U.S. dollars. At 100% participation, per-vehicle value declines to $25/vehicle-yr to $31/vehicle-yr for within-session charging flexibility and to $29/vehicle-yr to $36/vehicle-yr for within-week charging flexibility; however, 100% participation yields the highest total system savings.
Hydrogen bronzes can be used as hydrogen donors for the broad class of reactions involving proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET). Here, in this work, we describe a method to prepare platinum-decorated hydrogen tungsten bronzes, Pt@H x WO 3 · n H 2 O with n = 0, 1, and 2, by reacting the pristine oxides at modest temperatures with a mild reducing agent, H 3 PO 2 , and H 2 PtCl 6 in an aqueous solution. We explored the tunability and kinetics of this reaction and compared it with that of archetypal gas–solid hydrogen spillover. We demonstrate that the identity of the noble metal affects the extent of bronze reduction. This suggests that the mechanism proceeds via the adsorption of a hydrogen-atom species on the noble metal. Finally, we explored the ability of the Pt-decorated hydrogen tungsten bronzes to hydrogenate a model H + /e – acceptor, 2,2,6,6-tetramethyl-1-piperidinyloxyl (TEMPO). The bronze phases return to their fully oxidized states along with the subsequent reduction of TEMPO to TEMPOH. Overall, this work demonstrates a solution-phase method to obtain hydrogen bronzes, which can then be used to perform hydrogen transfer reactions, providing a pathway for the use of extended transition metal oxides as stoichiometric reagents for broad classes of hydrogenation reactions.
The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has resulted in significant new household electric loads that have the potential to change how energy costs are incurred by homeowners and the landscape of utility operations and energy infrastructure. Whereas adoption patterns and magnitudes of residential building and EV charging loads are influenced by distinct factors, the loads themselves are tightly coupled with the behavior of the individual occupants and EV owners.