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At least 19 records

Convective potential and fuel availability complement near-surface weather in regulating global wildfire activity

Wildfires are favored by hot, dry, windy, rainless conditions—this knowledge about fire weather informs both short-term forecast and long-term prediction of wildfire activity. Yet, wildfires rely on the availability of ignition and fuel, which are underrepresented in fire forecast and prediction practices. By analyzing satellite measurements and atmospheric reanalysis, here we show that near-surface weather only partially captures wildfire occurrence and intensity across the daily to seasonal timescales. Beyond near-surface weather, convection and fuel abundance play a complementary role in regulating burning processes. Specifically, enhanced atmospheric convection is identified for over 40% of the low-human-impact regions and 61% of global burnable areas during wildfire ignition and spreading periods. Meanwhile, 56% of shrublands and 54% of grasslands see higher fuel load with actual occurrence of fire. Our results highlight the role of convection and fuel in wildfire forecast, prompting a revisit of wildfire prediction under intertwined atmospheric and terrestrial changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Weather Data from BSEC Weather Stations

This dataset provides measurements of temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind, and sunlight at Ambient Weather and OttHydro stations across Baltimore city. These surface weather stations were deployed by the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC) Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (UIFL) project, funded by the Department of Energy (DOE). This dataset currently contains measurements from 2023 to June 2026 and will be periodically updated to include more stations and recent observations when available. Data File Information This dataset contains surface weather measurements data in comma-separated value (CSV) format and documents that describe the weather stations, locations, and measured parameters and units. data/[TIMEAVG]/[YEAR]/BSEC-[STATIONID]_[SENSORTYPE]_[TIMEAVG]_[YEAR].csv Surface weather measurements data in CSV format, where STATIONID indicates the weather station, SENSORTYPE is the type of weather station ('AWS' = Ambient Weather Station and 'OTT' = 'OttHydro Station'), TIMEAVG is time period for each entry (= daily, hourly, or 5min), and YEAR indicate the year in which the measurements were made. Example data file name: BSEC-AAC_AWS_hourly_2023.csv. documents/Station_Locations.csv This CSV file provides location information and measurement start date for each surface weather station. documents/Weather_Station_Descriptions.pdf This document provides detailed description of the instruments along with their setup and accuracy of measurement. documents/File_Contents.pdf This document describes the contents on the data files, including time notation, weather parameters and units of measurement. documents/site-metadata/[STATOINID]-metadata.pdf These PDF files provide information on weather station sites, including land cover characteristics, station mounting, and photographs. Each PDF file corresponds to one station, as indicated by STATIONID.

Ambient Weather Stations

A 30-yr high-resolution weather research and forecasting model downscaling data over California and Nevada

This dataset presents a 30-year high resolution meteorological dataset obtained using the WRF model (Advanced version Research WRF version 4.4). We used WRF and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 as initial and boundary conditions to generate gridded meteorological variables. A large number of surface weather stations was used for model validation. A multi-physics analysis was first developed to identify a good physics suite extended from 6 November 00 UTC to 10 November 23 UTC, 2018, which included the Camp Fire in northern California. Based on the best physics suite, the downscaling dataset extends from 1 December to 28 February, 1990–2021 and the horizontal domain has 1.5 km grid spacing covering the entire states of California and Nevada in the United States. Comparisons between hourly surface observations and WRF simulations of air temperature, relative humidity and wind speeds show mean absolute errors on the order of (1.6-2.0 C), (10 %) and 1.2–1.5 m s -1 , respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Constraining Erosion Rates and Landscape Evolution With In Situ 10 Be and 26 Al Cosmogenic Nuclides at Table Mountain, Antarctica

Abstract This study investigates surface weathering and sediment preservation at Table Mountain, a high‐elevation, hyperarid, polar landscape in the Transantarctic Mountains. We report cosmogenic nuclide concentrations ( 10 Be and 26 Al) in quartz from bedrock surfaces, erratic boulder lag, and cobbles embedded within Sirius Group sediments to quantify erosion rates. In situ 10 Be and 26 Al depth profiles from a 2.95 m permafrost core in the Sirius Group further constrain surface erosion rates and elucidate landscape stability. Measured 10 Be and 26 Al concentrations from two sandstone bedrock surfaces adjacent to Sirius Group sediments give erosion rates of 0.18–0.28 m/Myr. An erratic sandstone boulder within the lag above the Sirius Group yields erosion rates of ∼0.42 ± 0.03 m/Myr, whereas two cobbles embedded within the Sirius Group yield higher rates of 0.81–1.12 m/Myr. Depth profiles of in situ 10 Be and 26 Al indicate no vertical mixing of Sirius Group permafrost since deposition. Depth profile models are best explained by erosion rates of 0.53 +0.13 / −0.12 m/Myr, and an exposure age of 0.78 +0.06 / −0.08 Ma. We view the model “age” to represent the ∼0.8‐million‐year time‐scale for surface lowering equivalent to one attenuation length of cosmic ray production to achieve steady‐state conditions. Continual exhumation of embedded clasts from within the Sirius Group results in an accumulation of clasts forming the observed erosional lag deposit covering the landscape. Our erosion rates of the Sirius Group surface based on in situ 10 Be and 26 Al depth profiles are an order‐of‐magnitude larger than those based on meteoric 10 Be infiltration and further clarification is required.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Production rate calibration for cosmogenic 10 Be in pyroxene by applying a rapid fusion method to 10 Be-saturated samples from the Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica

Measurements of multiple cosmogenic nuclides in a single sample are valuable for various applications of cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating and allow for correcting exposure ages for surface weathering and erosion and establishing exposure–burial history. Here we provide advances in the measurement of cosmogenic 10 Be in pyroxene and constraints on the production rate that provide new opportunities for measurements of multi-nuclide systems, such as 10 Be/ 3 He, in pyroxene-bearing samples. We extracted and measured cosmogenic 10 Be in pyroxene from two sets of Ferrar Dolerite samples collected from the Transantarctic Mountains in Antarctica. One set of samples has 10 Be concentrations close to saturation, which allows for the production rate calibration of 10 Be in pyroxene by assuming production–decay equilibrium. The other set of samples, which has a more recent exposure history, is used to determine if a rapid fusion method can be successfully applied to samples with Holocene to Last Glacial Maximum exposure ages. From measured 10 Be concentrations in the near-saturation sample set we find the production rate of 10 Be in pyroxene to be 3.74 ± 0.10 atoms g -1 yr -1 , which is consistent with 10 Be/ 3 He paired nuclide ratios from samples assumed to have simple exposure. Given the high 10 Be concentration measured in this sample set, a sample mass of ~ 0.5 g of pyroxene is sufficient for the extraction of cosmogenic 10 Be from pyroxene using a rapid fusion method. However, for the set of samples that have low 10 Be concentrations, measured concentrations were higher than expected. We attribute spuriously high 10 Be concentrations to failure in removing all meteoric 10 Be and/or a highly variable and poorly quantified procedural blank background correction.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Use of Satellite, Surface Observations and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Data to Improve Cloud Base Height and Cloud Base Vertical Velocity Estimation

Cloud base height (CBH) and cloud base vertical velocity (CBVV) are important variables that impact the overall climate in a region as they influence the formulation, longevity, and evolution of clouds. Retrieval of both parameters have long used ground instrumentation (e.g., Doppler lidar (DL), ground base radar); however, retrieving CBH from satellites is particularly challenging given that space-based instruments only observe cloud tops. In this manuscript, CBH is retrieved using a multi-linear regression equation, while CBVV used a random forests model. Both retrievals combine satellite and numerical weather prediction data. The satellite data used are the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite imagery, while measurements of CBH and CBVV include DL and radiosonde data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement observatory. Data from 83 summer days (May-August) in 2018–2021 featuring cumulus clouds forced by solar heating were examined and used to train the models, with years 2022–2023 used for validation. Various spatial domains were defined with one large (2.4° longitude by 2.0° latitude) SGP domain being split into smaller sections (smallest being 0.99° and 0.61° longitude and latitude respectably). CBH and CBVV values obtained from the DL as compared to the models show root mean square errors between 150 and 200 m, with CBVV values between 0.45 and 1 ms -1 . Finally, it was found that the CBH formulation performs well over all domains, while the CBVV retrievals become less accurate due to more turbulence being introduced into the observations as the number of DL stations decreases in the smaller domains.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

The High-resolution Urban Meteorology for Impacts Dataset (HUMID) daily for the Conterminous United States

Many current gridded surface meteorological datasets are inadequate for quantifying near surface spatiotemporal variability because they do not fully represent the impacts of land surface heterogeneity. Of note, explicit representation of the spatial structure and magnitude of local urban warming are usually lacking. Here we enhance the representation of spatial meteorological variability over urban areas in the conterminous United States (CONUS) by employing the High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS), which accounts for the fine-scale impacts of spatiotemporally varying land surfaces on weather. We also synthesize in situ meteorological data including local mesonets to create a 1 km grid spacing model-observation fusion product spanning 1981-2018 over the CONUS. Daily maximum, minimum, and mean values for a variety of temperature estimates, humidity, and surface energy budget terms, among others, are included. This High-resolution Urban Meteorology for Impacts Dataset (HUMID) will be useful for studies examining spatial variability of near surface meteorology and the impacts of urban heat islands across many disciplines including epidemiology, ecology, and climatology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Amapari Marker Band Metal‐Enrichments: Potential Mechanisms and Implications for Surface and Subsurface Water and Weathering in Gale Crater

NASA's Curiosity rover is exploring a 5 km tall sedimentary mound that is hypothesized to record the transition from a warm and wet (phyllosilicate-rich) to a cold and drier (sulfate-rich) Mars. Evidence of magnesium sulfate-bearing rock has shown that Curiosity has crossed through this phyllosilicate-sulfate transition. Recently, Curiosity arrived at the Amapari Marker Band, a darker, indurated unit that can be traced laterally for tens of kilometers in orbiter images. Here, Curiosity found evidence for a very broad lake, and bedforms interpreted as wave-ripple laminated sedimentary rock that likely was deposited in shallow water in the explored location, before becoming a deeper lake. These rocks are enriched in Fe, Mn, and Zn which has major implications for groundwater paleohydrology in Gale crater. Three formation hypotheses are considered: concretion formation during early diagenetic alteration of shallow lake sediments, laterization or leaching of the sediments, and addition of Fe, Mn, and Zn by a mildly acidic and reducing groundwater interacting with a redox and/or pH front in a stratified lake. The preferred interpretation of the metal enrichments within the Amapari Marker band sedimentary rocks is that they formed in a shallow water environment at a redox and/or pH front within the ripple unit, which drove precipitation and concentration of metals. If the enrichments are due to groundwater alteration, these processes could link subsurface and surface environments. Water and the presence of high amounts of redox sensitive elements and other metals are favorable indicators for habitability.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Coupled feldspar dissolution and secondary mineral precipitation in batch systems: 6. Labradorite dissolution, calcite growth, and clay precipitation at 60 °C and pH 8.2–8.4

Here, we conducted experiments on concurrent labradorite dissolution, calcite precipitation, and clay precipitation in batch reactor systems and tracked reaction processes using multiple isotope tracers. Labradorite was chosen for its role as a major and reactive component in basalt; the experiments thus directly impact our understanding of CO 2 storage in basalt aquifers and enhanced rock weathering. We doped initial solutions with 29 Si, 43 Ca, and Ca 13 CO 3 (s). Experiments were conducted at 60 °C and pH ~ 8.3 for up to 840 h, with isotope ratios in the experimental aqueous solutions measured using MC-ICP-MS. Unidirectional rates of labradorite dissolution near equilibrium were approximately two orders of magnitude slower than far-from-equilibrium rates reported in the literature. Calcite growth occurred near equilibrium and the rates were limited by the labradorite dissolution rates. In the steady state phase, the interplay of these three heterogeneous reactions—labradorite dissolution, calcite growth, and clay precipitation—results in a coupled system that approaches a near-equilibrium state. The system does not reach true equilibrium because labradorite continues to dissolve, albeit at a much slower rate near equilibrium. The overall reaction can be approximated as, Na 0.4 Ca 0.6 Al 1.6 Si 2.4 O 8 + 0.6HCO 3 - + 1·.7H 2 O + 0.4H + → 0.4Na + + 0.6CaCO 3(s) + 0.5Al 2 Si 2 O 5 (OH) 4(s) + 0.6Al(OH) 4 - + 1.4SiO 2 o (aq). The experimental results show that using short-term far-from-equilibrium rate constants would lead to an overestimation of feldspar weathering rates at the Earth’s surface (e.g., basalt weathering and enhanced rock weathering) and CO 2 mineralization in basalt aquifers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Indirect climate impacts of the Hunga eruption

Injection of sulfur and water vapour by the Hunga volcanic eruption significantly altered chemical composition and radiative budget of the stratosphere. Yet, whether the eruption could also affect surface climate, especially via indirect pathways, remains poorly understood. Here we investigate these effects using large ensembles of simulations with the CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system model, incorporating interactive chemistry and aerosols in both coupled ocean and atmosphere-only configurations. We find some statistically significant extratropical regional climate responses to the eruption driven by circulation changes; these are partially linked to the modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and its associated teleconnections, and to perturbations of the stratospheric polar vortex in both hemispheres. The stratospheric anomalies affect surface climate through modulating the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere (up to three boreal winters following the eruption) and the Southern Annular Mode in the Southern Hemisphere in late 2023. The latter is partly related to a concurrent reduction in Antarctic ozone, as increased stratospheric aerosols and water vapor reach the polar vortex. Our study suggests that the eruption could have had a non-negligible influence on regional surface climate, and discusses the mechanisms via which such an influence could occur. However, the results also highlight that this forcing is relatively weak compared to interannual variability, and is subject to model uncertainties in the representation of key processes. More research is thus needed before definitive statements on the role of the eruption in contributing to surface climate and weather events in the following years are made.

Geosciences

Climate forcing controls on carbon terrestrial fluxes during shale weathering

Climate influences near-surface biogeochemical processes and thereby determines the partitioning of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in shale, and yet the controls on carbon (C) weathering fluxes remain poorly constrained. Using a dataset that characterizes biogeochemical responses to climate forcing in shale regolith, we implement a numerical model that describes the effects of water infiltration events, gas exchange, and temperature fluctuations on soil respiration and mineral weathering at a seasonal timescale. Our modeling approach allows us to quantitatively disentangle the controls of transient climate forcing and biogeochemical mechanisms on C partitioning. We find that ~3% of soil CO 2 (1.02 mol C/m 2 /y) is exported to the subsurface during large infiltration events. Here, net atmospheric CO 2 drawdown primarily occurs during spring snowmelt, governs the aqueous C exports (61%), and exceeds the CO 2 flux generated by pyrite and petrogenic organic matter oxidation (~0.2 mol C/m 2 /y). We show that shale CO 2 consumption results from the temporal coupling between soil microbial respiration and carbonate weathering. This coupling is driven by the impacts of hydrologic fluctuations on fresh organic matter availability and CO 2 transport to the weathering front. Diffusion-limited transport of gases under transient hydrological conditions exerts an important control on CO 2 (g) egress patterns and thus must be considered when inferring soil CO 2 drawdown from the gas phase composition. Our findings emphasize the importance of seasonal climate forcing in shaping the net contribution of shale weathering to terrestrial C fluxes and suggest that warmer conditions could reduce the potential for shale weathering to act as a CO 2 sink.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Evaluating Cloud Properties at Scott Base: Comparing Ceilometer Observations With ERA5, JRA55, and MERRA2 Reanalyses Using an Instrument Simulator

This study compares CL51 ceilometer observations made at Scott Base, Antarctica, with statistics from the ERA5, JRA55, and MERRA2 reanalyses. To enhance the comparison we use a lidar instrument simulator to derive cloud statistics from the reanalyses which account for instrumental factors. The cloud occurrence in the three reanalyses is slightly overestimated above 3 km, but displays a larger underestimation below 3 km relative to observations. Unlike previous studies, we see no relationship between relative humidity and cloud occurrence biases, suggesting that the cloud biases do not result from the representation of moisture. We also show that the seasonal variation of cloud occurrence and cloud fraction, defined as the vertically integrated cloud occurrence, are small in both the observations and the reanalyses. We also examine the quality of the cloud representation for a set of weather states derived from ERA5 surface winds. The variability associated with grouping cloud occurrence based on weather state is much larger than the seasonal variation, highlighting weather state is a strong control of cloud occurrence. All the reanalyses continue to display underestimates below 3 km and overestimates above 3 km for each weather state. But the variability in ERA5 statistics matches the changes in the observations better than the other reanalyses. We also use a machine learning scheme to estimate the quantity of supercooled liquid water cloud from the ceilometer observations. Ceilometer low-level supercooled liquid water cloud occurrences are considerably larger than values derived from the reanalyses, further highlighting the poor representation of low-level clouds in the reanalyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sensitivity of thermodynamic profiles retrieved from ground-based microwave and infrared observations to additional input data from active remote sensing instruments and numerical weather prediction models

Accurate and continuous estimates of the thermodynamic structure of the lower atmosphere are highly beneficial to meteorological process understanding and its applications, such as weather forecasting. In this study, the Tropospheric Remotely Observed Profiling via Optimal Estimation (TROPoe) physical retrieval is used to retrieve temperature and humidity profiles from various combinations of input data collected by passive and active remote sensing instruments, in situ surface platforms, and numerical weather prediction models. Among the employed instruments are microwave radiometers (MWRs), infrared spectrometers (IRSs), radio acoustic sounding systems (RASSs), ceilometers, and surface sensors. TROPoe uses brightness temperatures and/or radiances from MWRs and IRSs, as well as other observational inputs (virtual temperature from the RASS, cloud-base height from the ceilometer, pressure, temperature, and humidity from the surface sensors) in a physical iterative retrieval approach. This starts from a climatologically reasonable profile of temperature and water vapor, with the radiative transfer model iteratively adjusting the assumed temperature and humidity profiles until the derived brightness temperatures and radiances match those observed by the MWR and/or IRS instruments within a specified uncertainty, as well as within the uncertainties of the other observations, if used as input. In this study, due to the uniqueness of the dataset that includes all the above-mentioned sensors, TROPoe is tested with different observational input combinations, some of which also include information higher than 4 km above ground level (a.g.l.) from the operational Rapid Refresh numerical weather prediction model. These temperature and humidity retrievals are assessed against independent collocated radiosonde profiles under non-cloudy conditions to assess the sensitivity of the TROPoe retrievals to different input combinations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Numerical case study of the aerosol–cloud interactions in warm boundary layer clouds over the eastern North Atlantic with an interactive chemistry module

The presence of warm boundary layer stratiform clouds over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) region is commonly influenced by the Azores High, especially during the summer season. To investigate comprehensive aerosol–cloud interactions, this study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem), incorporating aerosol chemical components that are relevant to the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and accounting for aerosol spatiotemporal variation. This study focuses on aerosol indirect effects, particularly the long-range transport of aerosols, in the ENA region under three different weather regimes: a ridge with a surface high-pressure system, a post-trough with a surface high-pressure system, and a weak trough. The WRF-Chem simulations conducted at a near-large-eddy scale offer valuable insights into the model's performance, especially in terms of its ability to use high spatial resolution to capture mesoscale cloud features across various weather regimes. Our result shows that introducing 5 times more aerosols to either non-precipitating or precipitating clouds significantly increases ambient CCN numbers, resulting in, to varying degrees, higher liquid water path (LWP) values. The substantial aerosol–cloud interaction especially occurs in the precipitating clouds and demonstrates the susceptibility of the LWP to changes in CCN under different regimes. Conversely, thin, non-rain clouds at the edges of a cloud system are prone to evaporation, exhibiting an aerosol drying effect. The aerosols released during this process transition back to the accumulation mode, facilitating future activation. This dynamic behavior is not adequately represented in prescribed-aerosol simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Evaluation of Monin‐Obukhov Similarity Theory Wind Profiles in Convective Storm Environments and Cold Pools at the ARM Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Observatory

Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) is widely used in numerical weather prediction to model surface fluxes of momentum, heat, and water vapor. However, MOST is based on assumptions of steady state and horizontally homogeneous turbulence that can lead to prediction errors in and around convective storms. To understand the nature of these errors, we used wind and eddy covariance flux measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Observatory to evaluate MOST wind profiles in fair-weather and convective storm environments, specifically those of mesoscale convective systems and ordinary thunderstorms. MOST wind profiles agreed well with observations in fair-weather cases, while in convective storm cases the theory systematically overestimated shear in cold pools after gust front passage. Surface layer stability was found to be important in assessing MOST within convective storm environments. The overestimation of wind shear in cold pools suggests the role of non-local fluxes in transferring momentum downward. We discuss reasons for differences and agreement with past studies, and conclude with recommendations to improve prediction of surface winds and fluxes in convective storm simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Sensitivity of mesoscale modeling to urban morphological feature inputs and implications for characterizing urban sustainability

We examine the differences in meteorological output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 270 m horizontal resolution using 10 m, 100 m and 1 km resolution 3D neighborhood morphological inputs and with no morphological inputs. We find that the spatial variability in temperature, humidity, and other meteorological variables across the city can vary with the resolution and the coverage of the 3D urban morphological input, and that larger differences occur between simulations run without 3D morphological input and those run with some type of 3D morphology. We also find that the inclusion of input-building-defined roughness length calculations would improve simulation results further. We show that these inputs produce different patterns of heat wave spatial heterogeneity across the city of Washington, DC. These findings suggest that understanding neighborhood level urban sustainability under extreme heat waves, especially for vulnerable neighborhoods, requires attention to the representation of surface terrain in numerical weather models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES