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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Machine‐Learning‐Assisted Stochastic Cloud Population Model as a Parameterization of Cumulus Convection

Abstract A machine‐learning‐assisted stochastic cloud population model is coupled with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to represent fluctuations in the cloud‐base mass flux associated with the life cycles and interactions among cumulus convection cells. In this cloud population model, the size distribution and the associated cloud‐base mass flux of the convective cells are related to their previous state and to the change in the total convective area via a transition function. The convective area tendency in turn is assumed to depend on the cloud‐base mass flux that is resolved by the host WRF model. The transition function is represented by a single hidden‐layer neural network trained by the evolution of convective cell size distributions in a 1‐km grid‐spacing WRF simulation run over the Australian Monsoon region. At every grid point of the host model, the cloud population model predicts the cell size and cloud‐base mass flux distributions from which a random sample of cells is fed to an entraining parcel model that calculates precipitation as well as the associated liquid water potential temperature and total moisture tendencies. These tendencies are averaged over the cells and provided to the host model. Several regional simulations are performed over tropical and midlatitude domains to test this as a potential approach to scale‐aware parameterization. It is shown that such an approach could be a new promising path to simulating realistic precipitation statistics and propagation of precipitation associated with the Madden‐Julian Oscillation while maintaining realistic depictions of the diurnal cycle over both land and ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ecological niche models display nonlinear relationships with abundance and demographic performance across the latitudinal distribution of Astragalus utahensis (Fabaceae)

Abstract The potential for ecological niche models (ENMs) to accurately predict species' abundance and demographic performance throughout their geographic distributions remains a topic of substantial debate in ecology and biogeography. Few studies simultaneously examine the relationship between ENM predictions of environmental suitability and both a species' abundance and its demographic performance, particularly across its entire geographic distribution. Yet, studies of this type are essential for understanding the extent to which ENMs are a viable tool for identifying areas that may promote high abundance or performance of a species or how species might respond to future climate conditions. In this study, we used an ensemble ecological niche model to predict climatic suitability for the perennial forb Astragalus utahensis across its geographic distribution. We then examined relationships between projected climatic suitability and field‐based measures of abundance, demographic performance, and forecasted stochastic population growth (λ s ). Predicted climatic suitability showed a J‐shaped relationship with A. utahensis abundance, where low‐abundance populations were associated with low‐to‐intermediate suitability scores and abundance increased sharply in areas of high predicted climatic suitability. A similar relationship existed between climatic suitability and λ s from the center to the northern edge of the latitudinal distribution. Patterns such as these, where density or demographic performance only increases appreciably beyond some threshold of climatic suitability, support the contention that ENM‐predicted climatic suitability does not necessarily represent a reliable predictor of abundance or performance across large geographic regions.

Baer, Kathryn C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of structured latent spaces from neural population activity with the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model

The brain produces diverse functions, from perceiving sounds to producing arm reaches, through the collective activity of populations of many neurons. Determining if and how the features of these exogenous variables (e.g., sound frequency, reach angle) are reflected in population neural activity is important for understanding how the brain operates. Often, high-dimensional neural population activity is confined to low-dimensional latent spaces. However, many current methods fail to extract latent spaces that are clearly structured by exogenous variables. This has contributed to a debate about whether or not brains should be thought of as dynamical systems or representational systems. Here, we developed a new latent process Bayesian regression framework, the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model (OSLMM) which introduces an orthogonality constraint amongst time-varying mixture coefficients, and provide Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedures. We demonstrate superior performance of OSLMM on latent trajectory recovery in synthetic experiments and show superior computational efficiency and prediction performance on several real-world benchmark data sets. We primarily focus on demonstrating the utility of OSLMM in two neural data sets: μ ECoG recordings from rat auditory cortex during presentation of pure tones and multi-single unit recordings form monkey motor cortex during complex arm reaching. We show that OSLMM achieves superior or comparable predictive accuracy of neural data and decoding of external variables (e.g., reach velocity). Most importantly, in both experimental contexts, we demonstrate that OSLMM latent trajectories directly reflect features of the sounds and reaches, demonstrating that neural dynamics are structured by neural representations. Together, these results demonstrate that OSLMM will be useful for the analysis of diverse, large-scale biological time-series datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The neutron number probability distribution in coupled lumped assemblies

Here, the validity of the gamma distribution in describing the neutron number probability distribution function for both isolated and coupled multiplying assemblies when constrained to reproduce the true mean and variance is investigated in lumped geometry by numerical comparison with kinetic Monte Carlo simulations. The mean and variance are obtained from numerical solution of moment equations constructed from the relevant forward Master equation with assembly coupling coefficients obtained from a view factor method. Numerical results for a two-group, two coupled assemblies model, with static and dynamic reactivity insertion, show that except for subcritical assemblies, the gamma distribution well-approximates the number distribution. Differences in the fast and thermal neutron population shapes are explained in terms of effective source strengths due to downscatter and coupling.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

SSA Monte Carlo and Master Equation Modeling of Neutron Leakage Distributions

Strongly stochastic neutron populations in highly subcritical multiplying media containing weak spontaneous fission sources are unique indicators of the presence of SNM. For instance, in neutron multiplicity counting, an extended tail in the count number probability distribution is observed that is a characteristic of and sensitive to the amount of SNM present. Theoretical modeling and efficient computation of stochastic neutron distributions are complementary to experimental measurements and moreover shed light on the fundamental interactions and transport processes that underlie nuclear signatures. Modeling approaches that are intermediate between gross-system level models and high-fidelity but computationally demanding Monte Carlo simulations are of particular interest in this regard. Furthermore we present three advances on existing work in point kinetic or lumped geometry: (i) implementation of the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA), a system state-updating Monte Carlo method that is more e cient than single-event Monte Carlo in lumped geometries, (ii) application of the backward Master equation to obtain time-gated count moments, and (iii) reconstructing the count number distribution from the deterministically computed moments using a generalized Laguerre polynomial expansion.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Machine Learning Assisted Development of a Model for the Populations of Convective and Stratiform Clouds

Abstract Traditional parameterizations of the interaction between convection and the environment have relied on an assumption that the slowly varying large‐scale environment is in statistical equilibrium with a large number of small and short‐lived convective clouds. They fail to capture nonequilibrium transitions such as the diurnal cycle and the formation of mesoscale convective systems as well as observed precipitation statistics and extremes. Informed by analysis of radar observations, cloud‐permitting model simulation, theory, and machine learning, this work presents a new stochastic cloud population dynamics model for characterizing the interactions between convective and stratiform clouds, with the goal of informing the representation of these interactions in global climate models. Fifteen wet seasons of precipitating cloud observations by a C‐band radar at Darwin, Australia are fed into a machine learning algorithm to obtain transition functions that close a set of coupled equations relating large‐scale forcing, mass flux, the convective cell size distribution, and the stratiform area. Under realistic large‐scale forcing, the derived transition functions show that, on the one hand, interactions with stratiform clouds act to dampen the variability in the size and number of convective cells and therefore in the convective mass flux. On the other, for a given convective area fraction, a larger number of smaller cells is more favorable for the growth of stratiform area than a smaller number of larger cells. The combination of these two factors gives rise to solutions with a few convective cells embedded in a large stratiform area, reminiscent of mesoscale convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Contrasting Community Assembly Forces Drive Microbial Structural and Potential Functional Responses to Precipitation in an Incipient Soil System

Microbial communities in incipient soil systems serve as the only biotic force shaping landscape evolution. However, the underlying ecological forces shaping microbial community structure and function are inadequately understood. We used amplicon sequencing to determine microbial taxonomic assembly and metagenome sequencing to evaluate microbial functional assembly in incipient basaltic soil subjected to precipitation. Community composition was stratified with soil depth in the pre-precipitation samples, with surficial communities maintaining their distinct structure and diversity after precipitation, while the deeper soil samples appeared to become more uniform. The structural community assembly remained deterministic in pre- and post-precipitation periods, with homogenous selection being dominant. Metagenome analysis revealed that carbon and nitrogen functional potential was assembled stochastically. Sub-populations putatively involved in the nitrogen cycle and carbon fixation experienced counteracting assembly pressures at the deepest depths, suggesting the communities may functionally assemble to respond to short-term environmental fluctuations and impact the landscape-scale response to perturbations. We propose that contrasting assembly forces impact microbial structure and potential function in an incipient landscape; in situ landscape characteristics (here homogenous parent material) drive community structure assembly, while short-term environmental fluctuations (here precipitation) shape environmental variations that are random in the soil depth profile and drive stochastic sub-population functional dynamics.

16S amplicon sequencing↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Optical Signatures of Stochastic Processes in Many-Body Exciton Scattering

We review our recent quantum stochastic model for spectroscopic lineshapes in the presence of a coevolving and nonstationary background population of excitations. Starting from a field theory description for interacting bosonic excitons, we derive a reduced model whereby optical excitons are coupled to an incoherent background via scattering as mediated by their screened Coulomb coupling. The Heisenberg equations of motion for the optical excitons are then driven by an auxiliary stochastic population variable, which we take to be the solution of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. Here, we present an overview of the theoretical techniques we have developed as applied to predicting coherent nonlinear spectroscopic signals. We show how direct (Coulomb) and exchange coupling to the bath give rise to distinct spectral signatures and discuss mathematical limits on inverting spectral signatures to extract the background density of states.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations

Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scalable Generation of High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the U.S. via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. The study involves two scenarios: creating ensembles for (1) 17 U.S. metropolitan areas in 2019 and (2) full U.S. Census Divisions in 2023, with each scenario consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system within a research cloud, comprised of virtual containerizations, GPU-enhanced functionality, and orchestrated deployments of UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. Results demonstrate we maintained high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by areas of interest and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods while reducing manual workflow burdens. Finally, we discuss plans to fine-tune and further develop our automated workflows for truly distributed job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide an outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Cluster computing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Producing High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles at Scale

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the US via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. Our initial task involves creating ensembles for 17 US metropolitan areas, each consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system comprised of a research cloud, virtual containerization, GPU-enhanced functionality, and a dual API/CLI to interact with UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. We observe a reduction in theoretical execution time while maintaining high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by metropolitan area and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods. We discuss expansion of our approach to produce synthetic population ensembles for the entire US, particularly plans to establish automated workflows for job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Gaboardi, James [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247766826)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Structural Aspects of Neutron Survival Probabilities

The neutron survival probability (and related quantities including probabilities of extinction and initiation) is a central element of the broader stochastic theory of neutron populations and finds application in fields including reactor start-up, analysis of reactor power bursts and criticality accidents, and safeguards. In a full neutron transport formulation, the equation governing the single-neutron survival probability is a backward or adjoint-like integro-partial differential equation with the added complexity of being highly nonlinear. Analogous formulations of this equation exist in the context of many approximate theories of neutron transport, with the point kinetics formulation having received significant theoretical attention since the 1940s. This work continues this tradition by providing a novel analysis of the single-neutron survival probability equation using the tools of boundary layer theory. The analysis reveals that the “fully dynamic” solution of the single-neutron survival probability equation—and some key probability distributions derived from it—may be cast as a singular perturbation around the underlying quasi-static single-neutron probability of initiation. In this perturbation solution, the expansion parameter is the ratio of the neutron generation time to a macroscopic time scale characterizing the overall system evolution; this interpretation illuminates some of the fundamental structural aspects of neutron survival phenomena.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Collapsar R-process Yields Can Reproduce [Eu/Fe] Abundance Scatter in Metal-poor Stars

It is unclear if neutron star mergers can explain the observed r-process abundances of metal-poor stars. Collapsars, defined here as rotating massive stars whose collapse results in a rapidly accreting disk around a black hole that can launch jets, are a promising alternative. We find that we can produce a self-consistent model in which a population of collapsars with stochastic europium yields synthesizes all of the r-process material in metal-poor ([Fe/H] < - 2.5) stars. Our model reproduces the observed scatter and evolution of scatter of [Eu/Fe] abundances. We find that if collapsars are the dominant r-process site for metal-poor stars, r-process synthesis may be linked to supernovae that produce long γ-ray bursts. Our results also allow for the possibility that core-collapse supernovae beyond those that launch γ-ray bursts also produce r-process material (e.g., potentially a subset of Type Ic-BL supernovae). Furthermore, we identify collapsar jet properties (isotropic energy, engine luminosity, or engine time) that may trace r-process yield and verify that the amount of r-process yield produced per collapsar in our model ( ~ 0.07M⊙) is consistent with other independent estimates. In the future, achieving 0.05 dex precision on distribution scatter or a reliable selection function would further constrain our probe of r-process production. Our model would also hold for another prompt r-process site with a power-law yield, and work is needed to determine if, for example, fast-merging neutron stars can also explain abundance scatter.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Patchy nuclear chain reactions

Stochastic fluctuations of the neutron population within a nuclear reactor are typically prevented by operating the core at a sufficient power, since a deterministic (i.e., exactly predictable) behavior of the neutron population is required by automatic safety systems to detect unwanted power excursions. In order to characterize the reactor operating conditions at which the fluctuations vanish, an experiment was designed and took place in 2017 at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Reactor Critical Facility. This experiment however revealed persisting fluctuations and striking patchy spatial patterns in neutron spatial distributions. Here we report these experimental findings, interpret them by a stochastic modeling based on branching random walks, and extend them using a “numerical twin” of the reactor core. Consequences on nuclear safety will be discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Patchy snapshots of nuclear chain reactions

Stochastic fluctuations of the neutron population within a nuclear reactor are typically prevented by operating the core at a sufficiently high power. This regime, where the evolution of the neutron density is essentially deterministic, is key for automatic protection and safety systems to safely detect unwanted power excursions during an accident, and to rapidly initiate a reactor trip procedure in case it is needed. Recent works, supported by numerical simulations, have however reported that, for large reactors, the branching nature of the fission reactions might induce strongly non-Poissonian patterns in the neutron spatial distribution, and that stochastic fluctuations might still persist at reactor powers close to operating conditions (startup phase). An international program conducted by LANL, IRSN and CEA was therefore setup to experimentally detect and characterize such fluctuations and correlations. An experiment took place in 2017 at the Reactor Critical Facility (RCF) of the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (USA). In this paper we will report the main findings of this experimental program, supported by stochastic models and by the development of a dedicated high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulation code. We will in particular describe and explain the strong patchiness in neutron power distributions measured at the RCF, as well as a peculiar ‘blinking’ behavior of the core, and discuss the consequences of these findings on nuclear safety.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Differentiable Predictions for Large Scale Structure with SHAMNet

In simulation-based models of the galaxy-halo connection, theoretical predictions for galaxy clustering and lensing are typically made based on Monte Carlo realizations of a mock universe. In this paper, we use Subhalo Abundance Matching (SHAM) as a toy model to introduce an alternative to stochastic predictions based on mock population, demonstrating how to make simulation-based predictions for clustering and lensing that are both exact and differentiable with respect to the parameters of the model. Conventional implementations of SHAM are based on iterative algorithms such as Richardson-Lucy deconvolution; here we use the JAX library for automatic differentiation to train SHAMNet, a neural network that accurately approximates the stellar-to-halo mass relation (SMHM) defined by abundance matching. In our approach to making differentiable predictions of large-scale structure, we map parameterized PDFs onto each simulated halo, and calculate gradients of summary statistics of the galaxy distribution by using autodiff to propagate the gradients of the SMHM through the statistical estimators used to measure one- and two-point functions. Our techniques are quite general, and we conclude with an overview of how they can be applied in tandem with more complex, higher-dimensional models, creating the capability to make differentiable predictions for the multi-wavelength universe of galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The eROSITA Final Equatorial-Depth Survey (eFEDS)

The eROSITA Final Equatorial Depth Survey (eFEDS), completed in survey mode during the calibration and performance verification phase of the eROSITA instrument on Spectrum Roentgen Gamma, delivers data at and beyond the final depth of the 4-yr eROSITA all-sky survey (eRASS:8), f 0.5–2 keV = 1.1 × 10 –14 erg s –1 cm –2 , over 140 deg 2 . It provides the first view of normal galaxy X-ray emission from X-ray binaries (XRBs) and the hot interstellar medium at the full depth of eRASS:8. We used the Heraklion Extragalactic Catalogue (HECATE) of galaxies to correlate with eFEDS X-ray sources and identify X-ray detected normal galaxies. This flux-limited X-ray survey is relatively free from selection effects and enables the study of integrated normal galaxy X-ray emission and its relation to galaxy parameters such as the stellar mass, star formation rate (SFR), and metallicity. We cross-correlated 32 646 eFEDS X-ray sources to 1181 HECATE normal galaxies and obtained 94 matches. We classified galaxies as star-forming, early-type, composite, and active galactic nuclei (AGN) using Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and Six-degree Field (6dF) optical spectroscopy. The eFEDS field harbours 37 normal galaxies: 36 late-type (star-forming) galaxies and one early-type galaxy. There are 1.9 times as many normal galaxies as predicted by scaling relations via simulations, with an overabundance of late-type galaxies and a dearth of early-type galaxies. When compared with empirical relations, eFEDS dwarf galaxies with a high specific SFR have elevated L X /SFR at a fixed specific SFR and metallicity, indicating an increase in XRB emission due to low metallicity. We expect that eRASS:8 will detect 12 500 normal galaxies, the majority of which will be star-forming, with the caveat that there are unclassified sources in eFEDS and galaxy catalogue incompleteness issues that could increase the actual number of detected galaxies over these current estimates. eFEDS observations detected a rare population of galaxies – the metal-poor dwarf starbursts – that do not follow known scaling relations. eRASS is expected to discover significant numbers of these high-redshift analogues, which are important for studying the heating of the intergalactic medium at high redshift. Further investigation of the hot gas emission from normal galaxies and stochastic effects in the dwarf galaxy population are required to constrain their X-ray output.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Process-based Model with Temperature, Water, and Lab-derived Data Improves Predictions of Daily Culex pipiens/restuans Mosquito Density

While the number of human cases of mosquito-borne diseases has increased in North America in the last decade, accurate modeling of mosquito population density has remained a challenge. Longitudinal mosquito trap data over the many years needed for model calibration, and validation is relatively rare. In particular, capturing the relative changes in mosquito abundance across seasons is necessary for predicting the risk of disease spread as it varies from year to year. We developed a discrete, semi-stochastic, mechanistic process-based mosquito population model that captures life-cycle egg, larva, pupa, adult stages, and diapause for Culex pipiens (Diptera, Culicidae) and Culex restuans (Diptera, Culicidae) mosquito populations. This model combines known models for development and survival into a fully connected age-structured model that can reproduce mosquito population dynamics. Mosquito development through these stages is a function of time, temperature, daylight hours, and aquatic habitat availability. The time-dependent parameters are informed by both laboratory studies and mosquito trap data from the Greater Toronto Area. The model incorporates city-wide water-body gauge and precipitation data as a proxy for aquatic habitat. This approach accounts for the nonlinear interaction of temperature and aquatic habitat variability on the mosquito life stages. We demonstrate that the full model predicts the yearly variations in mosquito populations better than a statistical model using the same data sources. This improvement in modeling mosquito abundance can help guide interventions for reducing mosquito abundance in mitigating mosquito-borne diseases like West Nile virus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗