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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend treatment gaps during radiotherapy, apart from decreasing the probability of eradicating the primary cancer, substantially increase the risk of later second cancers.

Sachs, Rainer K.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Shortsighted Evolution Constrains the Efficacy of Long-Term Bet Hedging

To survive unpredictable environmental change, many organisms adopt bet-hedging strategies that are initially costly but provide a long-term fitness benefit. The temporal extent of these deferred fitness benefits determines whether bet-hedging organisms can survive long enough to realize them. In this article, we examine a model of microbial bet hedging in which there are two paths to extinction: unpredictable environmental change and demographic stochasticity. In temporally correlated environments, these drivers of extinction select for different switching strategies. Rapid phenotype switching ensures survival in the face of unpredictable environmental change, while slower-switching organisms become extinct. However, when both switching strategies are present in the same population, then demographic stochasticity—enforced by a limited population size—leads to extinction of the faster-switching organism. As a result, we find a novel form of evolutionary suicide whereby selection in a fluctuating environment can favor bet-hedging strategies that ultimately increase the risk of extinction. Population structures with multiple subpopulations and dispersal can reduce the risk of extinction from unpredictable environmental change and shift the balance so as to facilitate the evolution of slower-switching organisms.

Bet hedging↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Stochastic Cratering Model for Asteroid Surfaces

The observed cratering records on asteroid surfaces (four so far: Gaspra, Ida, Mathilde, and Eros [1-4]) provide us with important clues to their past bombardment histories. Previous efforts toward interpreting these records have led to two basic modeling styles for reproducing the statistics of the observed crater populations. The first, and most direct, method is to use Monte Carlo techniques [5] to stochastically populate a matrix-model test surface with craters as a function of time [6,7]. The second method is to use a more general, parameterized approach to duplicate the statistics of the observed crater population [8,9]. In both methods, several factors must be included beyond the simple superposing of circular features: (1) crater erosion by subsequent impacts, (2) infilling of craters by impact ejecta, and (3) crater degradation and era- sure due to the seismic effects of subsequent impacts. Here we present an updated Monte Carlo (stochastic) modeling approach, designed specifically with small- to medium-sized asteroids in mind.

Richardson, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Electrochemical storage

The source of the problem within the individual single cell which is related to the stochastic properties of cell populations and to the actual electrochemistry and chemistry taking place is described. The complications which arise in multicell batteries to show how different electrochemistries might alleviate or accentuate these problems is described. The concept of the electrochemical system is introduced to show how certain shortcomings of the single cell/battery string concept can be circumvented. Some of these electrochemical systems permit performance characteristics that are impossible by using conventional battery design philosophies. Projections for energy density and performance characteristics of the concepts are addressed.

Thaller, L. H.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Particle Acceleration in Active Galactic Nuclei

The high efficiency of energy generation inferred from radio observations of quasars and X-ray observations of Seyfert active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is apparently achieved only by the gravitational conversion of the rest mass energy of accreting matter onto supermassive black holes. Evidence for the acceleration of particles to high energies by a central engine is also inferred from observations of apparent superluminal motion in flat spectrum, core-dominated radio sources. This phenomenon is widely attributed to the ejection of relativistic bulk plasma from the nuclei of active galaxies, and accounts for the existence of large scale radio jets and lobes at large distances from the central regions of radio galaxies. Reports of radio jets and superluminal motion from galactic black hole candidate X-ray sources indicate that similar processes are operating in these sources. Observations of luminous, rapidly variable high-energy radiation from active galactic nuclei (AGNs) with the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory show directly that particles are accelerated to high energies in a compact environment. The mechanisms which transform the gravitational potential energy of the infalling matter into nonthermal particle energy in galactic black hole candidates and AGNs are not conclusively identified, although several have been proposed. These include direct acceleration by static electric fields (resulting from, for example, magnetic reconnection), shock acceleration, and energy extraction from the rotational energy of Kerr black holes. The dominant acceleration mechanism(s) operating in the black hole environment can only be determined, of course, by a comparison of model predictions with observations. The purpose of the work proposed for this grant was to investigate stochastic particle acceleration through resonant interactions with plasma waves that populate the magnetosphere surrounding an accreting black hole. Stochastic acceleration has been successfully applied to the problem of ion and electron energization in solar flares, and is capable of accounting for a wide range of both neutral and charged particle emissions. It is also a component in diffusive shock acceleration, since pitch-angle scattering (which is necessary for multiple shock crossings) is accompanied by diffusion in momentum space, which in turn yields a net systematic energy gain; however, stochastic energization will dominate the first-order shock process only in certain parameter regimes. Although stochastic acceleration has been applied to particle energization in the lobes of radio galaxies, its application to the central regions of AGNs has only recently been considered, but not in detail. We proposed to systematically investigate the plasma processes responsible for stochastic particle acceleration in black hole magnetospheres along with the energy-loss processes which impede particle energization. To this end we calculated acceleration rates and escape time scales for protons and electrons resonating with Alfven waves, and for electrons resonating with whistlers. Assuming either a Kolmogorov or Kraichnan wave spectrum, accretion at the Eddington limit, magnetic field strengths near equipartition, and turbulence energy densities approx. 10% of the total magnetic field energy density, we find that Alfven waves accelerate protons to Lorentz factors approx, equals 10(exp 4) - 10(exp 6) before they escape from the system. Acceleration of electrons by fast mode and whistler waves can produce a nonthermal population of relativistic electrons whose maximum energy is determined by a competition with radiation losses.

Miller, James A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Particle Acceleration in Active Galactic Nuclei

The investigation of stochastic particle acceleration through resonant interactions with plasma waves that populate the magnetosphere surrounding an accreting black hole is presented. Stochastic acceleration has been successfully applied to the problem of ion and electron energization in solar flares, and is capable of accounting for a wide range of both neutral and charged particle emissions. It is also a component in diffusive shock acceleration, since pitch-angle scattering (which is necessary for multiple shock crossings) is accompanied by diffusion in momentum space, which in turn yields a net systematic energy gain; however, stochastic energization will dominate the first-order shock process only in certain parameter regimes. Although stochastic acceleration has been applied to particle energization in the lobes of radio galaxies, its application to the central regions of AGNs (active galactic nuclei) has only recently been considered, but not in detail. We proposed to systematically investigate the plasma processes responsible for stochastic particle acceleration in black hole magnetospheres along with the energy-loss processes which impede particle energization. To this end, we calculated acceleration rates and escape time scales for protons and electrons resonating with Alfven waves, and for electrons resonating with whistlers. We also considered the "hot" topic of gamma-ray line emission from the Orion complex. We proposed that the observed gamma-ray lines are produced by energetic ions that are stochastically accelerated by cascading Alfven waves in the accretion plasma near a black hole. Related research papers that were published in journals are listed.

Miller, James A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Critical Slowing Down in Time-to-Extinction: An Example of Critical Phenomena in Ecology

We study a model for two competing species that explicitly accounts for effects due to discreteness, stochasticity and spatial extension of populations. The two species are equally preferred by the environment and do better when surrounded by others of the same species. We observe that the final outcome depends on the initial densities (uniformly distributed in space) of the two species. The observed phase transition is a continuous one and key macroscopic quantities like the correlation length of clusters and the time-to-extinction diverge at a critical point. Away from the critical point, the dynamics can be described by a mean-field approximation. Close to the critical point, however, there is a crossover to power-law behavior because of the gross mismatch between the largest and smallest scales in the system. We have developed a theory based on surface effects, which is in good agreement with the observed behavior. The course-grained reaction-diffusion system obtained from the mean-field dynamics agrees well with the particle system.

Gandhi, Amar↗
NASA NTRS2004

Improving Project Management with Simulation and Completion Distribution Functions

Despite the critical importance of project completion timeliness, management practices in place today remain inadequate for addressing the persistent problem of project completion tardiness. A major culprit in late projects is uncertainty, which most, if not all, projects are inherently subject to. This uncertainty resides in the estimates for activity durations, the occurrence of unplanned and unforeseen events, and the availability of critical resources. In response to this problem, this research developed a comprehensive simulation based methodology for conducting quantitative project completion time risk analysis. It is called the Project Assessment by Simulation Technique (PAST). This new tool enables project stakeholders to visualize uncertainty or risk, i.e. the likelihood of their project completing late and the magnitude of the lateness, by providing them with a completion time distribution function of their projects. Discrete event simulation is used within PAST to determine the completion distribution function for the project of interest. The simulation is populated with both deterministic and stochastic elements. The deterministic inputs include planned project activities, precedence requirements, and resource requirements. The stochastic inputs include activity duration growth distributions, probabilities for events that can impact the project, and other dynamic constraints that may be placed upon project activities and milestones. These stochastic inputs are based upon past data from similar projects. The time for an entity to complete the simulation network, subject to both the deterministic and stochastic factors, represents the time to complete the project. Repeating the simulation hundreds or thousands of times allows one to create the project completion distribution function. The Project Assessment by Simulation Technique was demonstrated to be effective for the on-going NASA project to assemble the International Space Station. Approximately $500 million per month is being spent on this project, which is scheduled to complete by 2010. NASA project stakeholders participated in determining and managing completion distribution functions produced from PAST. The first result was that project stakeholders improved project completion risk awareness. Secondly, using PAST, mitigation options were analyzed to improve project completion performance and reduce total project cost.

Cates, Grant R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Stochastic histories of refractory interstellar dust

Histories of refractory interstellar dust particles (IDPs) are calculated. The profile of a particle population is assembled from a large number of stochastic, or Monte Carlo, histories of single particles; the probabilities for each of the events that may befall a given particle are specified, and the particle's history is unfolded by a sequence of random numbers. The assumptions that are made and the techniques of the calculation are described together with the results obtained. Several technical demonstrations are presented.

Liffman, Kurt↗
NASA NTRS1981

Interplanetary ions during an energetic storm particle event - The distribution function from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV

An ion velocity distribution function of the postshock phase of an energetic storm particle (ESP) event is obtained from data from the ISEE 2 and ISEE 3 experiments. The distribution function is roughly isotropic in the solar wind frame from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV. The ESP event studied (8/27/78) is superposed upon a more energetic particle event which was predominantly field-aligned and which was probably of solar origin. The observations suggest that the ESP population is accelerated directly out of the solar wind thermal population or its quiescent suprathermal tail by a stochastic process associated with shock wave disturbance. The acceleration mechanism is sufficiently efficient so that approximately 1% of the solar wind population is accelerated to suprathermal energies. These suprathermal particles have an energy density of approximately 290 eV cubic centimeters.

Gosling, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS1987

UV, optical and infrared properties of star forming galaxies

The UVOIR properties of galaxies with extreme star formation rates are examined. These objects seem to fall into three distinct classes which can be called (1) extragalactic H II regions, (2) clumpy irregulars, and (3) starburst galaxies. Extragalactic H II regions are dominated by recently formed stars and may be considered 'young' galaxies if the definition of young is having the majority of total integrated star formation occurring in the last billion years. Clumpy irregulars are bursts of star formation superposed on an old population and are probably good examples of stochastic star formation. It is possible that star formation in these galaxies is triggered by the infall of gas clouds or dwarf companions. Starburst galaxies are much more luminous, dustier and more metal rich than the other classes. These objects show evidence for shock induced star formation where shocks may be caused by interaction with massive companions or are the result of an extremely strong density wave.

Huchra, John P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Microbeam studies of the sensitivity of structures within living cells

Determining the biological effects of low doses of radiation with high linear energy transfer (LET) is complicated by the stochastic nature of charged-particle interactions. Populations of cells exposed to very low radiation doses contain a few cells which have been hit by a charged particle, while the majority of the cells receive no radiation damage. At somewhat higher doses, a few cells receive two or more events. Because the effects of damage produced by separate events can interact in the cell, we have had to make assumptions about the nature of these interactions in order to interpret the results of the experiments. Many of those assumptions can be tested if we can be sure of the number of charged-particle events which occur in individual cells, and correlate this number with the biological effect. We have developed a special irradiation facility at Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to control the actual number of charged particle tracks that pass through cell nuclei. The beam from a 2 MeV tandem accelerator is collimated to approximately 5 microns. Cells, grown in special dishes with 1.5 microns thick plastic bottoms, are positioned so that the desired portion of the cell aligns with the collimator. A shutter in the beam line is opened and closed after the desired number of particle tracks has been counted. This approach can be used to investigate the effects of the interaction between irradiated and unirradiated cells in an organized system, as well as to study the effects of spatial and temporal distribution of radiation damage within single cells.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS).

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Data-driven, Physics-based Transport Model of Solar Energetic Particles Accelerated by Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks Propagating through the Solar Coronal and Heliospheric Magnetic Fields

In an effort to develop computational tools for predicting radiation hazards from solar energetic particles (SEPs), we have created a data-driven physics-based particle transport model to calculate the injection, acceleration, and propagation of SEPs from coronal mass ejection (CME) shocks traversing through the solar corona and interplanetary magnetic fields. The model runs on an input of corona and heliospheric plasma and magnetic field configuration from a magnetohydrodynamic model driven by solar photospheric magnetic field measurements superposed with observed CME shocks determined from coronagraph images. SEP source particles are injected at the shock using the result of diffusive shock acceleration formulation from a characteristic obliquity-dependent injection from a heated solar wind thermal tail population. With several advanced computation techniques involving stochastic simulation and integration, the model obtains the particle intensity at any location in interplanetary space through the rigorous solution to the time-dependent 5D focus transport equation in the phase space that includes perpendicular diffusion. We apply the model to the 2011 November 3 CME event. The calculation results reproduce multispacecraft SEP observations at Earth and STEREO-B reasonably well without normalization of particle flux. The observations at STEREO-A can be reproduced by rescaling particle energy or modified energy dependence of particle diffusion coefficients. This circumsolar SEP event seen by spacecraft at Earth, STEREO-A, and STEREO-B at widely separated longitudes can be explained by diffusive shock acceleration by a single CME shock with a moderate speed.

Solar energetic particles↗
NASA NTRS1991

Combined energy and pitch angle diffusion of pickup ions at Comet Halley

It is well known that cometary pickup ions, e.g., H2O(+), OH(+), O(+), CO(+), H(+), initially form a ring-beam distribution in the solar wind reference frame, which is highly unstable to the growth of MHD waves (such as ion-cyclotron waves). The low-frequency magnetic fluctuations (or waves), which were observed upstream of Comet Halley, cannot only pitch-angle-scatter the pickup ions so that the distribution becomes at least partially isotropized, but also stochastically accelerate the ions, resulting in the energetic ion populations observed in the vicinity of Comet Halley. Here, numerical solutions of the quasi-linear diffusion equation were used to investigate the cometary ion pickup process at Comet Halley. Both pitch angle and energy diffusion are taken into account. Many quasi-linear models of cometary pickup ions exist which involve one type of diffusion or the other but not both types at once. It is found that the pitch angle scattering occurs faster than the energy diffusion, as expected. Moreover, the results demonstrate that the distribution of accelerated energetic ions is more isotropic than that of ions which have just been picked up. In fact, the ion distribution function on the initial pickup shell is quite anisotropic, even close to the Comet-Halley bow shock.

Ye, Gang↗
NASA NTRS2017

Asteroid Impact Risk: Ground Hazard versus Impactor Size

We utilized a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) model to stochastically assess the impact risk due to an ensemble population of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). Concretely, we present the variation of risk with impactor size. Results suggest that large impactors dominate the average risk, even when only considering the subset of undiscovered NEOs.

Mathias, Donovan↗