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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase III

The AMU created new logistic regression equations in an effort to increase the skill of the Objective Lightning Forecast Tool developed in Phase II (Lambert 2007). One equation was created for each of five sub-seasons based on the daily lightning climatology instead of by month as was done in Phase II. The assumption was that these equations would capture the physical attributes that contribute to thunderstorm formation more so than monthly equations. However, the SS values in Section 5.3.2 showed that the Phase III equations had worse skill than the Phase II equations and, therefore, will not be transitioned into operations. The current Objective Lightning Forecast Tool developed in Phase II will continue to be used operationally in MIDDS. Three warm seasons were added to the Phase II dataset to increase the POR from 17 to 20 years (1989-2008), and data for October were included since the daily climatology showed lightning occurrence extending into that month. None of the three methods tested to determine the start of the subseason in each individual year were able to discern the start dates with consistent accuracy. Therefore, the start dates were determined by the daily climatology shown in Figure 10 and were the same in every year. The procedures used to create the predictors and develop the equations were identical to those in Phase II. The equations were made up of one to three predictors. TI and the flow regime probabilities were the top predictors followed by 1-day persistence, then VT and Ll. Each equation outperformed four other forecast methods by 7-57% using the verification dataset, but the new equations were outperformed by the Phase II equations in every sub-season. The reason for the degradation may be due to the fact that the same sub-season start dates were used in every year. It is likely there was overlap of sub-season days at the beginning and end of each defined sub-season in each individual year, which could very well affect equation performance.

Crawford, Winifred C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Uncertainty Analysis of Historical Hurricane Data

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was conducted for historical hurricane data dating back to 1851 that was obtained from the U. S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The data set was chosen because it is a large, publicly available collection of information, exhibiting great variability which has made the forecasting of future states, from current and previous states, difficult. The availability of substantial, high-fidelity validation data, however, made for an excellent uncertainty assessment study. Several factors (independent variables) were identified from the data set, which could potentially influence the track and intensity of the storms. The values of these factors, along with the values of responses of interest (dependent variables) were extracted from the data base, and provided to a commercial software package for processing via the ANOVA technique. The primary goal of the study was to document the ANOVA modeling uncertainty and predictive errors in making predictions about hurricane location and intensity 24 to 120 hours beyond known conditions, as reported by the data set. A secondary goal was to expose the ANOVA technique to a broader community within NASA. The independent factors considered to have an influence on the hurricane track included the current and starting longitudes and latitudes (measured in degrees), and current and starting maximum sustained wind speeds (measured in knots), and the storm starting date, its current duration from its first appearance, and the current year fraction of each reading, all measured in years. The year fraction and starting date were included in order to attempt to account for long duration cyclic behaviors, such as seasonal weather patterns, and years in which the sea or atmosphere were unusually warm or cold. The effect of short duration weather patterns and ocean conditions could not be examined with the current data set. The responses analyzed were the storm latitude, longitude and intensity, as recorded in the data set, 24 or 120 hours beyond the current state. Several ANOVA modeling schemes were examined. Two forms of validation were used: 1) comparison with official hurricane prediction performance metrics and 2) cases studies conducted on hurricanes from the 2005 season, which were not included within the model construction and ANOVA assessment. In general, the ANOVA technique did not perform as well as the established official prediction performance metrics published by NOAA; still, the technique did remarkably well in this demonstration with a difficult data set and could probably be made to perform better with more knowledge of hurricane development and dynamics applied to the problem. The technique provides a repeatable prediction process that eliminates the need for judgment in the forecast.

Green, Lawrence L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Kicking the can down the road: understanding the effects of delaying the deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection

Abstract Climate change is a prevalent threat, and it is unlikely that current mitigation efforts will be enough to avoid unwanted impacts. One potential option to reduce climate change impacts is the use of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). Even if SAI is ultimately deployed, it might be initiated only after some temperature target is exceeded. The consequences of such a delay are assessed herein. This study compares two cases, with the same target global mean temperature of ∼1.5° C above preindustrial, but start dates of 2035 or a ‘delayed’ start in 2045. We make use of simulations in the Community Earth System Model version 2 with the Whole Atmosphere Coupled Chemistry Model version 6 (CESM2-WACCM6), using SAI under the SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway. We find that delaying the start of deployment (relative to the target temperature) necessitates lower net radiative forcing (−30%) and thus larger sulfur dioxide injection rates (+20%), even after surface temperatures converge, to compensate for the extra energy absorbed by the Earth system. Southern hemisphere ozone is higher from 2035 to 2050 in the delayed start scenario, but converges to the same value later in the century. However, many of the surface climate differences between the 2035 and 2045 start simulations appear to be small during the 10–25 years following the delayed SAI start, although longer simulations would be needed to assess any longer-term impacts in this model. In addition, irreversibilities and tipping points that might be triggered during the period of increased warming may not be adequately represented in the model but could change this conclusion in the real world.

Brody, Ezra (ORCID:000900030008681X)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerocapture Solutions for Uranus Flagship-class Orbiter and Probe

Recent planetary mission assessments, such as the 2022 Planetary Science Decadal Survey released by the National Academies of Science, have focused on the need for a flagship-class mission to the Ice Giant planets, particularly Uranus. The Uranus Orbit and Probe mission proposal was used by the National Academies of Science as the baseline while making its recommendation as the top flagship-class mission for NASA in the 2020-2030\'s. This mission which was based on a launch date of 2031 or 2032, used a fully-propulsive orbit insertion maneuver at Uranus (requiring 60-70% of total mass for propellant), and reached the planet after 13 years of interplanetary cruise before the 2049 equinox, a goal of the science community. A pre-2033 launch date is required to conduct a necessary Jupiter fly-by as the giant planet will be not be in the proper alignment for a later launch date. However, as the budget constraints of the NASA budget have pushed back the start date of a Uranus mission, a launch date of a flagship mission before 2033 seems unreasonable. Aerocapture, an orbit insertion maneuver that uses the atmosphere to decelerate, can reduce the propellant load needed for a captured orbit. Additionally, the aerocapture maneuver can decelerate safely while approaching the planet at higher arrival velocities, thus allowing a mission to use a highly energetic trajectory and reduce the cruise time by several years. An aerocapture-enabled solution has launch opportunities in the mid 2030's, including as late as 2038 to reach Uranus by 2049. This paper will discuss the feasibility of an aerocapture option for a Flagship-class mission to Uranus.

Soumyo Dutta↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerocapture Solutions for Uranus Flagship-class Orbiter and Probe

Recent planetary mission assessments, such as the 2022 Planetary Science Decadal Survey released by the National Academies of Science, have focused on the need for a flagship-class mission to the Ice Giant planets, particularly Uranus. The Uranus Orbit and Probe mission proposal was used by the National Academies of Science as the baseline while making its recommendation as the top flagship-class mission for NASA in the 2020-2030\'s. This mission which was based on a launch date of 2031 or 2032, used a fully-propulsive orbit insertion maneuver at Uranus (requiring 60-70% of total mass for propellant), and reached the planet after 13 years of interplanetary cruise before the 2049 equinox, a goal of the science community. A pre-2033 launch date is required to conduct a necessary Jupiter fly-by as the giant planet will be not be in the proper alignment for a later launch date. However, as the budget constraints of the NASA budget have pushed back the start date of a Uranus mission, a launch date of a flagship mission before 2033 seems unreasonable. Aerocapture, an orbit insertion maneuver that uses the atmosphere to decelerate, can reduce the propellant load needed for a captured orbit. Additionally, the aerocapture maneuver can decelerate safely while approaching the planet at higher arrival velocities, thus allowing a mission to use a highly energetic trajectory and reduce the cruise time by several years. An aerocapture-enabled solution has launch opportunities in the mid 2030's, including as late as 2038 to reach Uranus by 2049. This paper will discuss the feasibility of an aerocapture option for a Flagship-class mission to Uranus.

Soumyo Dutta↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

MISR Browse data (MISBR_V5)

A MISR Browse Tool is available to allow easy access to ellipsoid-derived, true-color images for each camera reduced to 2.2 km resolution. The MISR red, green and blue bands are used to create the true-color image in JPEG format. The image is intentionally clipped and gamma-stretched to make cloud, ocean and land features visible. The user may find the Browse Tool helpful before ordering data. The tool's purpose is to search and view images in the on-line user interface. However, the browse product can be ordered separately. The Browse Tool page has Orbit-to-Date and Lat/Lon-to-Path/Block conversion tools to help identify particular MISR geographic locations and data files. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=2000-02-24; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=2.2 km; Longitude_Resolution=2.2 km; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=1 km - < 10 km or approximately .01 degree - < .09 degree; Temporal_Resolution=about 15 orbits/day; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Daily - < Weekly].

EOSDIS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

MISR Browse data (MISBR_V3)

A MISR Browse Tool is available to allow easy access to ellipsoid-derived, true-color images for each camera reduced to 2.2 km resolution. The MISR red, green and blue bands are used to create the true-color image in JPEG format. The image is intentionally clipped and gamma-stretched to make cloud, ocean and land features visible. The user may find the Browse Tool helpful before ordering data. The tool's purpose is to search and view images in the on-line user interface. However, the browse product can be ordered separately. The Browse Tool page has Orbit-to-Date and Lat/Lon-to-Path/Block conversion tools to help identify particular MISR geographic locations and data files. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=2000-02-24; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=2.2 km; Longitude_Resolution=2.2 km; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=1 km - < 10 km or approximately .01 degree - < .09 degree; Temporal_Resolution=about 15 orbits/day; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Daily - < Weekly].

EOSDIS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

MISR Browse data (MISBR_V4)

A MISR Browse Tool is available to allow easy access to ellipsoid-derived, true-color images for each camera reduced to 2.2 km resolution. The MISR red, green and blue bands are used to create the true-color image in JPEG format. The image is intentionally clipped and gamma-stretched to make cloud, ocean and land features visible. The user may find the Browse Tool helpful before ordering data. The tool's purpose is to search and view images in the on-line user interface. However, the browse product can be ordered separately. The Browse Tool page has Orbit-to-Date and Lat/Lon-to-Path/Block conversion tools to help identify particular MISR geographic locations and data files. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=2000-02-24; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=2.2 km; Longitude_Resolution=2.2 km; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=1 km - < 10 km or approximately .01 degree - < .09 degree; Temporal_Resolution=about 15 orbits/day; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Daily - < Weekly].

IMAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ex-Situ Surface Characterization Studies and Boundary Plasma Diagnostic Development for DIII-D (Final Report)

This report details the accomplishments for award DE-SC0016318, which sponsored collaborative research activities between the University of Tennessee-Knoxville and the DIII-D experiment at General Atomics, led by the PI (Donovan), which officially began on August 1, 2016 and ended July 31, 2020. Though the official start date for the award was August 1, 2016, the PI had already initiated collaborative activities with DIII-D during 2015 supported by internal UTK start-up funds utilized by the PI. This prior work enabled UTK to have a substantial role in the June 2016 Metal Rings Campaign (MRC). The DOE funds then provided the opportunity to expand the UTK team with funding for students and a postdoc to perform ex-situ analysis on the wide array of samples exposed during the MRC and develop more sophisticated analysis tools and interpretive modeling techniques.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2023

Passive Microwave Arctic Sea Ice Melt Onset Dates From the Advanced Horizontal Range Algorithm 1979 - 2022

The onset of the summer melt season is a key stage of the Arctic sea ice seasonal cycle and is an indicator of climate change. Surface melting of the bare or snow-covered sea ice is detected using passive microwave satellite observations. The data set presented here is a 44 year record of Arctic sea ice annual melt onset (MO) dates for 1979–2022 produced using an updated version of the Advanced Horizontal Range Algorithm (AHRA). This data product contains annual maps of the sea ice MO date and a set of descriptive statistics summarizing the data. This paper describes a new update of the AHRA methodology, now AHRA V5, including key changes to the algorithm starting date and sea ice mask methodology to improve estimates of early-season MO dates especially near the sea ice periphery. AHRA V5 data are suitable for monitoring trends in Arctic and regional sea ice MO dates and for process studies of atmosphere-sea ice interactions during the early spring and summer months.

Angela C. Bliss↗
DOE OSTI2025

Label-based Virtual Directories In dCache

Traditional filesystems organize data in directories. These directories are typically a collection of files whose grouping is based on a single criterion, e.g., the starting date of an experiment, experiment name, beamline ID, measurement device, or instrument. However, each file in a directory can belong to several logical groups, such as a special event type, experiment condition, or a part of a selected dataset. dCache is a storage system developed to store large amounts of scientific data, used by many HEP and Photon Science experiments. With recent developments in dCache, we have introduced a concept of file tagging, which dynamically groups files with the same label into virtual directories. The file labels can be added, removed, renamed, and deleted through the admin interface or via REST API. The files in virtual directories are exposed through all protocols supported by dCache. This contribution will describe the details of the implementation for file tagging in dCache and present our future development plans on automatic metadata extractions, a feature that will significantly simplify data management. Additionally, we are exploring the future use of virtual directories as a way to translate scientific data catalogs into filesystem views for direct data analysis.

Sahakyan, Marina [DESY]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of sensitivity analysis in DYMOND/Dakota to fuel cycle transition scenarios

The ability to perform sensitivity analysis has been enabled for the nuclear fuel cycle simulator DYMOND through its coupling with the design and analysis toolkit Dakota. To test and demonstrate these new capabilities, a transition scenario and multi-parameter study were devised. The transition scenario represents a partial transition from the US nuclear fleet to a closed fuel cycle with small modular LWRs and fast reactors fueled by reprocessed used nuclear fuel. Four uncertain parameters in this transition were studied – start date of reprocessing, total reprocessing capacity, the nuclear energy demand growth, and the rate at which the fast reactors are deployed – with respect to their impact on four response metrics. The responses – total natural uranium consumed, maximum annual enrichment capacity required, total disposed mass, and total cost of the nuclear fuel cycle – were chosen based on measures known to be of interest in transition scenarios and to be significantly impacted by the varying parameters. Furthermore, analysis of this study was performed both from the direct sampling and through surrogate models developed in Dakota to calculate the global sensitivity measures Sobol’ indices. This example application of this new capability showed that the most consequential parameter to most metrics was the share of new build capacity that is fast reactors. However, for the cost metric, the scaling factor of the energy demand growth was significant and had synergistic behavior with the fast reactor new build share.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Systems Engineering and Analysis in Support of a US Federal Staging Facility for UNF

The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Office of Spent Fuel and High-Level Waste Disposition is examining a set of system options and conducting supporting analyses to inform the development of an integrated waste management system, which may include one or more federal staging facilities (FSFs) for used nuclear fuel (UNF ) sited using a collaborative siting process. This paper focuses on the ongoing activities in two systems engineering and analysis work areas: (1) data and tools development, validation, and maintenance and (2) systems engineering execution. Within the first work area, the STANDARDS 5.0 UNF data and analysis tool, formerly known as UNF-ST&DARDS, is being developed as a foundational resource to assist in the management of UNF data. It has the key capability to model UNF throughout the entire back end of the fuel cycle. STANDARDS also includes several compatible analysis tools for the time-dependent characterization of UNF and related systems by interfacing with the SCALE code system for nuclear analysis and COBRA-SFS for thermal analysis. Also, within the data and tools area is the Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM), which is an agent-based simulation software tool expressly designed to be capable of modeling the waste management system, including the transportation of UNF to and from a FSF. NGSAM has been developed to enable informed decision-making by providing the capability to analyze various potential system options for the management of UNF and high-level radioactive waste. Finally, in the systems engineering execution area, the team has begun to apply a disciplined systems engineering approach at the system level along with supporting analysis to guide the development of the FSF project requirements (including associated transportation infrastructure). Systems engineering principles and practices and their adaptation/application to design and development activities will ensure that the waste management system is effectively implemented as work proceeds. Other activities include investigating the implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters related to waste management systems, such as UNF acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, and different assumed facility operation start dates. Keywords: federal staging facility (FSF), used nuclear fuel (UNF), integrated waste management (IWM) system, Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM), STANDARDS, systems engineering

Joseph, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2021

CCF Parameter Estimations, 2020 Update

This report documents the quantitative results of the common-cause failure (CCF) data collection effort (which included data through 2020) and summarizes the results of the parameter estimation quantification process performed on CCF data in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CCF database. This is the 2020 update to NUREG/CR-5497, updating data and parameter estimations for CCFs. This release, CCF Parameter Estimation 2020, reflects the CCF data contained within the CCF database, https://rads.inl.gov/Pages/CCF.aspx, by executing (in August 2021) the CCF query rules in the folder SPAR Rules 2020. The data covers the period from 1/1/2006 to 12/31/2020, the most recent 15-year period in which data are available. The use of the most recent rolling 15-year data in parameter estimation differs from previous updates, in which 1/1/1997 was used as the starting date (e.g., 1/1/1997 to 12/31/2015 for the 2015 update, 1/1/1997 to 12/31/2012 for the 2012 update). The new date range (i.e., the most recent 15-year period), was selected for this CCF update so as to be consistent with the date range chosen for the component reliability parameter estimation, and with the effort to include sufficient data for analysis while simultaneously reflecting the most recent industry performance. These results are appropriate for use in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies, including the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the U.S. This update may be referred as: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, "CCF Parameter Estimations, 2020 Update," https://nrcoe.inl.gov/publicdocs/CCF/ccfparamest2020.pdf, November 2021.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flexible Siting Criteria and Staff Minimization for Micro-Reactors

The economic potential of micro-reactors is vast and underestimated. Commonly-emphasized applications include niche markets such as remote communities, mines and military bases. However, micro-reactors could be used as flexible energy generators also for larger markets, such as mobile and containerized agriculture and manufacturing facilities, district heating, micro-grids for data centers, sea ports, airports and hospitals. The implication is that micro-reactors may have to be deployed also in non-remote locations. Successful implementation of micro-reactors needs a navigable and predictable licensing process, technology-appropriate siting restrictions, risk-informed emergency and safety requirements, and practical operating and maintenance requirements. The primary goal of this project was to develop siting criteria that are tailored to micro-reactors deployable in densely-populated areas, e.g., urban environments. To achieve that goal, we compared the characteristics of the MIT research reactor (MITR) with those of leading micro-reactor concepts (e.g., eVinci, USNC, Aurora), and evaluated whether and how the MITR design basis (e.g., inherent safety features, engineered safety systems, source term, emergency planning and emergency operating procedures) and associated regulations may be applicable to these new micro-reactors as well. What makes MITR a unique analogue in this context is its small power rating (6 MWt) and physical size, mode of operations (24/7 with a somewhat more commercial flavor than typical university reactors), and especially its urban location. Of course significant differences exist, such as mission (power production vs. research) and the reactor design itself. Leveraging the MITR experience, this project was able to generate criteria that will allow micro-reactors to realize their full economic potential as flexible heat and electricity generators for a diverse portfolio of applications in non-remote locations. As such, the outcome of this project might encourage investment in and use of micro-reactors. A second goal of the project was to conceptualize a model of operations for micro-reactors that would minimize the staffing requirements, and thus reduce the cost of electricity and heat generated by these systems. Here too our approach was to systematically review the MITR experience and requirements, as well as survey the innovations in autonomous control technologies and monitoring (e.g., advanced sensors, drones, robotics, AI) that would permit a dramatic reduction in staffing at future micro-reactor installations. The scope of work was expanded after the start date to include also an evaluation of micro-reactor security, using the so-called consequence-based analysis, and the development of a methodology to perform dynamic risk assessment for micro-reactors, using system theory and modeling and simulation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

2D IR Microscopy—Technology for Visualizing Chemical Dynamics in Heterogeneous Environments (Final Technical Report)

The primary focus of this project was the design, prototype, and demonstration of a 2D IR microscope. The start date of this project was July 15, 2016 and the project end date was July 14, 2022. In the early years of this project our team designed, prototyped, and completely integrated a homebuilt microscope head with our high-repetition rate 2D IR spectrometer. Once in place our research team focused on characterizing the 2D IR microscope and using it to investigate model systems relevant to energy technologies. As part of this process, we identified two initial chemical systems to use to further develop 2D IR imaging modalities. The first chemical system developed was a room temperature ionic liquid (RTIL) electrolyte system and the second chemical system was a mixture of carbonates and salts developed as a battery electrolyte system. The completion of this project resulted in the full characterization of chemical dynamics in a bulk RTIL system and the demonstration of 2D IR imaging across the RTIL cast as a microdroplet in silicon oil. In addition, we explored the liquid structures and dynamics of organic carbonate mixtures from the vantage point of the vibrational probe, methyl thiocyanate. By the end of the project, we had moved toward in-depth studies of the organic carbonate mixtures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning approaches for integrating multi-omics data to expand microbiome annotation

Preliminary: This final report corresponds to a grant (DE-SC0021216) that was awarded to the University of Montana. Mid-way through the grant period, I relocated from the University of Montana to the University of Arizona. The grant was ended at University of Montana in late 2022, with all efforts concluding on 08/26/22; the remaining funds supporting the project were relinquished by University of Montana, and were later awarded to University of Arizona under a new grant, with start date 04/01/23. This report focuses on results of research efforts at UMontana through 08/26/22. Results: We made progress in each of the three aims of the proposal. We released software that identifies and fills gaps in the annotation of metabolic proteins within bacterial genomes. We made substantial progress in developing software for alignment-based annotation of protein coding DNA, allowing for coding frameshifts caused by sequencing error. Finally, we made notable progress in developing AI methods (specifically: a neural embedding model) for identifying similarities between protein sequences based on amino-wise latent vectors. These efforts were supplemented by development of methods for protein modeling in support of predicting protein-drug binding activity, and by my leadership of a team in the NIH/DOE 2021 Petabyte-Scale Sequence Search hack-a-thon.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗