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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Concurrent Inter-Model Spread of Boreal Winter Westerly Jet Meridional Positions Between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in CMIP6 Models

Here, this study investigates the inter-model spread of climatological extratropical westerly jets in boreal winter, using the historical simulation of 52 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models from 1851 to 2014. The results show that there is a substantial spread in the latitude of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet across models, characterised by large inter-model standard deviations to both the poleward and equatorward sides of the jet axis, although the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) performs well in simulating meridional position of westerly jets. Furthermore, we detect the consistency of inter-model jet position spread between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, based on the inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and correlation of regional-averaged zonal winds. Specifically, the models that simulate the westerly jets poleward/equatorward relative to the MME position in one hemisphere also tend to simulate the jets poleward/equatorward in the other hemisphere. Accordingly, we define a global jet spread index to depict the concurrence of jet shift in the two hemispheres. The results of inter-model regression analyses based on this index indicate that the models positioning the jets poleward than the MME tend to simulate a wider Hadley Cell, a poleward-shifted Ferrel Cell in the Southern Hemisphere, enhanced precipitation in the subtropics and suppressed precipitation in the tropics, and warmer sea surface temperatures in the subtropics and mid-latitudes. The present results suggest that improving the simulation of jet positions in climate models requires a comprehensive consideration of thermal states in the tropics and subtropics/mid latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Priori Subgrid Analysis of Temporal Mixing Layers with Evaporating Droplets

Subgrid analysis of a transitional temporal mixing layer with evaporating droplets has been performed using three sets of results from a Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) database, with Reynolds numbers (based on initial vorticity thickness) as large as 600 and with droplet mass loadings as large as 0.5. In the DNS, the gas phase is computed using a Eulerian formulation, with Lagrangian droplet tracking. The Large Eddy Simulation (LES) equations corresponding to the DNS are first derived, and key assumptions in deriving them are first confirmed by computing the terms using the DNS database. Since LES of this flow requires the computation of unfiltered gas-phase variables at droplet locations from filtered gas-phase variables at the grid points, it is proposed to model these by assuming the gas-phase variables to be the sum of the filtered variables and a correction based on the filtered standard deviation; this correction is then computed from the Subgrid Scale (SGS) standard deviation. This model predicts the unfiltered variables at droplet locations considerably better than simply interpolating the filtered variables. Three methods are investigated for modeling the SGS standard deviation: the Smagorinsky approach, the Gradient model and the Scale-Similarity formulation. When the proportionality constant inherent in the SGS models is properly calculated, the Gradient and Scale-Similarity methods give results in excellent agreement with the DNS.

Okongo, Nora↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Priori Subgrid Scale Modeling for a Droplet Laden Temporal Mixing Layer

Subgrid analysis of a transitional temporal mixing layer with evaporating droplets has been performed using a direct numerical simulation (DNS) database. The DNS is for a Reynolds number (based on initial vorticity thickness) of 600, with droplet mass loading of 0.2. The gas phase is computed using a Eulerian formulation, with Lagrangian droplet tracking. Since Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of this flow requires the computation of unfiltered gas-phase variables at droplet locations from filtered gas-phase variables at the grid points, it is proposed to model these by assuming the gas-phase variables to be given by the filtered variables plus a correction based on the filtered standard deviation, which can be computed from the sub-grid scale (SGS) standard deviation. This model predicts unfiltered variables at droplet locations better than simply interpolating the filtered variables. Three methods are investigated for modeling the SGS standard deviation: Smagorinsky, gradient and scale-similarity. When properly calibrated, the gradient and scale-similarity methods give results in excellent agreement with the DNS.

Okongo, Nora↗
NASA NTRS1977

A model for simulating random atmospheres as a function of latitude, season, and time

An empirical stochastic computer model was developed with the capability of generating random thermodynamic profiles of the atmosphere below an altitude of 99 km which are characteristic of any given season, latitude, and time of day. Samples of temperature, density, and pressure profiles generated by the model are statistically similar to measured profiles in a data base of over 6000 rocket and high-altitude atmospheric soundings; that is, means and standard deviations of modeled profiles and their vertical gradients are in close agreement with data. Model-generated samples can be used for Monte Carlo simulations of aircraft or spacecraft trajectories to predict or account for the effects on a vehicle's performance of atmospheric variability. Other potential uses for the model are in simulating pollutant dispersion patterns, variations in sound propagation, and other phenomena which are dependent on atmospheric properties, and in developing data-reduction software for satellite monitoring systems.

Campbell, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Atmospheric Angular Momentum Fluctuations During 1979-1988 Simulated by Global Circulation Models

Changes in major global dynamical phenomena in the Earth's atmosphere are manifested in the time series of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), as determined directly from meteorological observations and indirectly from geodetic observations of small fluctuations in the rotation of the solid Earth which are proportional to length of day. AAM fluctuations are intimately linked with energetic processes throughout the whole atmosphere and also with the stresses at the Earth's surface produced largely by turbulent momentum transport in the oceanic and continental boundary layers and by the action of normal pressure forces on orographic features. A stringent test of any numerical global circulation model (GCM) is therefore provided by a quantitative assessment of its ability to represent AAM fluctuations on all relevant timescales, ranging from months to several years. From monthly data provided by the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the World Climate Research Programme, we have investigated seasonal and interannual fluctuations and the decadal mean in the axial component of AAM in 23 AMIP GCMs over the period 1979-1988. The decadal means are generally well simulated, with the model median value (1.58 x 10(exp 26) kg sq m/s) being only 3.5% larger than the observed mean and with 10 of the models being within 5% of the observed. The seasonal cycle is well reproduced, with the median amplitude of the models seasonal standard deviations being only 2.4% larger than observed. Half the seasonal amplitudes lie within 15% of the observed, and the median correlation found between the observed and model seasonal cycles is 0.95. The dominant seasonal error is an underestimation of AAM during northern hemisphere winter associated with errors in the position of subtropical jets. Less robust are the modeled interannual variations, although the median correlation of 0.61 between model simulations and observed AAM is statistically significant. The two El Nino-Southem Oscillation events that occurred during the AMIP decade 1979-1988 have the expected positive AAM anomalies, although the AAM signature of the 1982-1983 event tends to be underestimated and that of the 1986-1987 event overestimated.

Hide, R.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Atmospheric Angular Momentum Fluctuations During 1979-1988 Simulated by Global Circulation Models

Changes in major global dynamical phenomena in the Earth's atmosphere are manifested in the time series of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), as determined directly from meteorological observations and indirectly from geodetic observations of small fluctuations in the rotation of the solid Earth which are proportional to length of day. AAM fluctuations are intimately linked with energetic processes throughout the whole atmosphere and also with the stresses at the Earth's surface produced largely by turbulent momentum transport in the oceanic and continental boundary layers and by the action of normal pressure forces on orographic features. A stringent test of any numerical global circulation model (GCM) is therefore provided by a quantitative assessment of its ability to represent AAM fluctuations on all relevant timescales, ranging from months to several years. From monthly data provided by the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the World Climate Research Programme, we have investigated seasonal and interannual fluctuations and the decadal mean in the axial component of AAM in 23 AMIP GCMs over the period 1979-1 988. The decadal means are generally well simulated, with the model median value (1.58 x 10(exp 26) kg sq m/s) being only 3.5% larger than the observed mean and with 10 of the models being within 5% of the observed. The seasonal cycle is well reproduced, with the median amplitude of the models' seasonal standard deviations being only 2.4% larger than observed. Half the seasonal amplitudes lie within 15% of the observed, and the median correlation found between the observed and model seasonal cycles is 0.95. The dominant seasonal error is an under- estimation of AAM during northern hemisphere winter associated with errors in the position of subtropical jets. Less robust are the modeled interannual variations, although the median correlation of 0.61 between model simulations and observed AAM is statistically significant. The two El Nino-Southern Oscillation events that occurred during the AMIP decade 1979-1988 have the expected positive AAM anomalies, although the AAM signature of the 1982-1983 event tends to be underestimated and that of the 1986-1987 event overestimated.

Hide, R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

CMPLE: Correlation Modeling to Decode Photosynthesis Using the Minorize–Maximize Algorithm

In plant genomic experiments, correlations among various biological traits (phenotypes) give new insights into how genetic diversity may have tuned biological processes to enhance fitness under diverse conditions. Consequently, knowing how the correlations are affected by genetic (G) and environmental (E) factors helps develop climate-resilient plants. However, the current literature lacks any method for assessing the effect of predictors on pairwise correlations among multiple phenotypes together with easily interpretable model parameters. To address this need, we propose to model pairwise correlations directly in terms of G and E and develop a computationally efficient inference procedure. Two major novelties in our methodology are (1) the use of a composite pairwise likelihood method to avoid the positive definiteness restriction on the correlation matrix and (2) the use of a novel Minorize–Maximize (MM) algorithm for the efficient estimation of a large number of parameters. The proposed method shows excellent numerical performance on synthetic datasets. Here, the analysis of the motivating data on cowpea reveals that the rates of solar energy storage by photosynthesis (the aggregate trait) are differentially affected by different genetic loci through two distinct processes: “photoinhibition” which results from photodamage caused by excess light, and “photoprotection” which protects plants from photodamage but also results in energy loss.

Correlation modeling↗
NASA NTRS2014

Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

Data assimilation has been demonstrated very useful in improving both global and regional numerical weather prediction. Alaska has very coarser surface observation sites. On the other hand, it gets much more satellite overpass than lower 48 states. How to utilize satellite data to improve numerical prediction is one of hot topics among weather forecast community in Alaska. The Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) at University of Alaska is conducting study on satellite data assimilation for WRF model. AIRS/CRIS sounder profile data are used to assimilate the initial condition for the customized regional WRF model (GINA-WRF model). Normalized standard deviation, RMSE, and correlation statistic analysis methods are applied to analyze one case of 48 hours forecasts and one month of 24-hour forecasts in order to evaluate the improvement of regional numerical model from Data assimilation. The final goal of the research is to provide improved real-time short-time forecast for Alaska regions.

Zhu, Jiang↗
NASA NTRS2020

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W/sq. m, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W/sq. m from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W/sq. m from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W/sq. m from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W/sq. m from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W/sq. m. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W/sq. m is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W/sq. m, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

effective radiative forcing↗
DOE OSTI2024

GLAD-M35: a joint P and S global tomographic model with uncertainty quantification

We present our third and final generation joint P and S global adjoint tomography (GLAD) model, GLAD-M35, and quantify its uncertainty based on a low-rank approximation of the inverse Hessian. Starting from our second-generation model, GLAD-M25, we added 680 new earthquakes to the database for a total of 2160 events. New P-wave categories are included to compensate for the imbalance between P- and S-wave measurements, and we enhanced the window selection algorithm to include more major-arc phases, providing better constraints on the structure of the deep mantle and more than doubling the number of measurement windows to 40 million. Two stages of a Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton inversion were performed, each comprising five iterations. With this BFGS update history, we determine the model’s standard deviation and resolution length through randomized singular value decomposition.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Search for new physics in the final state with a single photon and large missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at √𝑠 =13 TeV

A search for new physics in events featuring a single photon and missing transverse momentum is presented, using proton-proton √𝑠 =13 TeV collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb −1 collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC between 2017 and 2018. This analysis, combined with a previous study of 36 fb −1 of 2016 data (totaling 137 fb −1 ), reveals no significant deviations from standard model expectations. The results are then used to establish 95% confidence level limits on parameters in theoretical models involving dark matter and large extra dimensions. Compared to the 2016-only analysis, this search achieves up to a 14% improvement in exclusion reach for mediator masses in simplified dark matter models, along with 11% and 10% enhancements in the limits on the effective field theory suppression scale and the fundamental Planck scale, respectively. These results are the most stringent constraints on these parameters to date.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of Angular Coefficients of B ¯ → D * ℓ ν ¯ ℓ : Implications for | V c b | and Tests of Lepton Flavor Universality

We measure the complete set of angular coefficients J i for exclusive B ¯ → D * ℓ ν ¯ ℓ decays ( ℓ = e , μ ). Our analysis uses the full 711 fb − 1 Belle dataset with hadronic tag-side reconstruction. The results allow us to extract the form factors describing the B ¯ → D * transition and the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element | V cb | . Using recent lattice QCD calculations for the hadronic form factors, we find | V cb | = ( 40.7 ± 0.7 ) × 10 − 3 using the Boyd-Grinstein-Lebed parametrization, compatible with determinations from inclusive semileptonic decays. We search for lepton flavor universality violation as a function of the hadronic recoil parameter w and investigate the differences of the electron and muon angular distributions. We find no deviation from standard model expectations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simultaneous Unbinned Differential Cross-Section Measurement of Twenty-Four Z+jets Kinematic Observables with the ATLAS Detector

Z boson events at the Large Hadron Collider can be selected with high purity and are sensitive to a diverse range of QCD phenomena. As a result, these events are often used to probe the nature of the strong force, improve Monte Carlo event generators, and search for deviations from standard model predictions. All previous measurements of Z boson production characterize the event properties using a small number of observables and present the results as differential cross sections in predetermined bins. In this analysis, a machine learning method called omnifold is used to produce a simultaneous measurement of twenty-four Z +jets observables using 139 fb -1 of proton-proton collisions at √s =13 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector. Unlike any previous fiducial differential cross-section measurement, this result is presented unbinned as a dataset of particle-level events, allowing for flexible reuse in a variety of contexts and for new observables to be constructed from the twenty-four measured observables.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Composition changes and empirical models

Empirical model descriptions of the response of the neutral thermosphere to magnetic activity have become increasingly sophisticated over the last two decades. The latest CIRA model (MSIS-86) includes a dependence of the thermospheric response to magnetic activity on altitude, latitude, local time, season, longitude, UT, and time history of magnetic activity. A primary assumption is that density changes are directly related to the measured magnetic activity and the goal is for the model to be representative of the typical or average response for any given level of magnetic activity under specified ancillary conditions. Unfortunately, available measurements for the larger storms are too sparse to give good averages and storm response may not be uniquely represented by current magnetic indices. Point by point comparisons with the MSIS-86 model have standard deviations of 20 percent for 0 and 30 percent for N2 and He at high latitudes during storm conditions.

Hedin, A. E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Search for Higgs bosons produced in association with a high-energy photon via vector-boson fusion and decaying to a pair of b -quarks in the ATLAS detector

A search for Standard Model Higgs bosons produced in association with a high-energy photon and decaying to $b\bar{b}$ is performed using 133 fb −1 of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV pp collision data collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. The photon requirement reduces the multijet background, and the H → $b\bar{b}$ decay is the dominant decay mode. Event selection requirements target events produced by vector-boson fusion, the dominant production mode in this channel. Several improvements enhance the search sensitivity compared to previous measurements. These improvements include better background modelling and characterization, the use of a neural-network classifier, and an updated signal extraction strategy adopting a direct binned-likelihood fit to the classifier output. With these improvements, the Higgs boson signal strength is measured to be 0.2 ± 0.7 relative to the Standard Model prediction. This corresponds to an observed significance of 0.3 standard deviations, compared to an expectation of 1.5 standard deviations assuming the Standard Model.

ATLAS experiment↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantifying Food Security and Mitigation Risks Consequential to Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.

crop yields↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamical dark energy from lattice quantum gravity

We study the behavior of the vacuum in Euclidean dynamical triangulations (EDT). Algorithmic improvements and better lattice spacing determinations allow us to test the properties of the emergent de Sitter geometries of our simulations to higher precision than previously possible. Although the agreement with de Sitter is good, the improved precision reveals deviations that can be interpreted as nontrivial vacuum dynamics, well described by a cosmological constant that runs with scale. The simulations show that the dominant running is quadratic and that the scale can be identified with the Hubble rate. Several key cross-checks support this picture, including consistent results across multiple lattice spacings and the fact that the null energy condition is not violated. The parameters of the running are fully determined by simulations, enabling predictions when extrapolated to the scales relevant for our Universe. This leads to a model for dark energy that is compatible with current observations, but which predicts deviations from the Standard Model of cosmology at the 𝒪⁡(10 −3 ) level in observables that could be tested with future improvements in precision measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1982

The influence of turbulence models on computer-simulated aircraft landing

Three models of simulated atmospheric turbulence were used to determine their respective influence on a computer-simulated, DC-8 type, aircraft landing. Statistical results based on a sample of 20 simulated landings illustrate the influence of turbulence simulated by the different models. For the same spectrum function, a non-Gaussian turbulence model produces the higher degree of touchdown variability. When different spectrum functions are used the von Karman model induces a smaller standard deviation in position error than the Dryden model. The turbulence energy contained by the higher frequency fluctuation has little effect on the landing position.

Frost, W.↗