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At least 19 records

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial dependences in the distant solar wind: Pioneers 10 and 11

Pioneer 10, 11 observations of the solar wind and magnetic field between 1 and 20 AU are reviewed. Spatial dependences, which are emphasized, must be inferred in the presence of large temporal variations including solar cycle effects. The separation of spatial and temporal dependences is achieved principally through the use of multipoint observations including baseline measurements at 1 AU. Measurements of the solar wind parameters (radial speed, flux, proton temperature) and of the magnetic field magnitude and components are compared with two theories, the Parker theory which assumes radial, azimuthally symmetric flow and the Goldstein-Jokipii theory which includes effects associated with stream-stream interactions. The observed radial gradients in the proton density and velocity and the magnetic field are consistent with the Parker model. A qualitative dependence of field magnitude on heliomagnetic latitude, i.e., referred to the observed location of the heliospheric current sheet, was derived. The field strength was found to decrease with distance from the current sheet.

Smith, E. J.↗

Stabilization and control of distributed systems with time-dependent spatial domains

This paper considers the problem of the stabilization and control of distributed systems with time-dependent spatial domains. The evolution of the spatial domains with time is described by a finite-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations, while the distributed systems are described by first-order or second-order linear evolution equations defined on appropriate Hilbert spaces. First, results pertaining to the existence and uniqueness of solutions of the system equations are presented. Then, various optimal control and stabilization problems are considered. The paper concludes with some examples which illustrate the application of the main results.

Wang, P. K. C.↗

Nonempirical Range-Separated Hybrid Functional with Spatially Dependent Screened Exchange

Electronic structure calculations based on density functional theory (DFT) have successfully predicted numerous ground-state properties of a variety of molecules and materials. However, exchange and correlation functionals currently used in the literature, including semilocal and hybrid functionals, are often inaccurate to describe the electronic properties of heterogeneous solids, especially systems composed of building blocks with large dielectric mismatch. Here, in this study, we present a dielectric-dependent range-separated hybrid functional, screened-exchange range-separated hybrid (SE-RSH), for the investigation of heterogeneous materials. We define a spatially dependent fraction of exact exchange inspired by the static Coulomb-hole and screened-exchange (COHSEX) approximation used in many-body perturbation theory, and we show that the proposed functional accurately predicts the electronic structure of several nonmetallic interfaces, three- and two-dimensional, pristine, and defective solids and nanoparticles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

FLAMES─Fast, Low-Storage, Accurate, and Memory-Efficient Adaptive Sampling─Approach to Resolve Spatially Dependent Dynamics of Molecular Liquids

Many critical phenomena in soft matter occur at large length scales, necessitating the resolution of their structure and dynamics at low wavenumbers. However, resolving wavenumber-dependent dynamics computationally via molecular dynamics simulations presents significant challenges, as these phenomena span several orders of magnitude in both time and length scales, resulting in high computational costs and memory demands. Here, this work highlights the computational and memory challenges associated with analyzing molecular trajectories in reciprocal space and demonstrates a method to address them. We introduce FLAMESFast, Low-storage, Accurate, and Memory-Efficient adaptive Sampling, which is a direct method for calculation of structure factors, allowing us to select only the required number of wavevectors for binning. We also use wavenumber-dependent time steps to extract dynamics. Our FLAMES approach effectively mitigates computational and memory/storage bottlenecks. We demonstrate the method using simulations of a model system, liquid octane, at various temperatures. Comparisons with experimental data and real space computation show that the FLAMES technique achieves high accuracy in resolving temperature- and spatially dependent dynamics while being significantly more computationally efficient and requiring less memory and storage than methods based on a uniform wavevector grid and fixed temporal spacing.

Chen, Guang [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Ar↗

Dielectric screening at TMD:hBN interfaces: Monolayer-to-bulk transition, local-field effect, and spatial dependence

The dielectric effects of a substrate have been shown to be important for modulating the electronic properties of an adsorbate, especially in van der Waals heterostructures. Here, using the first-principles dielectric embedding GW approach within the framework of many-body perturbation theory, we perform a case study on the dielectric screening effects of hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) on various transition-metal dichalcogenides (TMDs). We consider three systems, monolayer MoS 2 , bilayer MoS 2 , and a mixed WS 2 /MoS 2 bilayer adsorbed on hBN, and examine three aspects of the substrate dielectric screening: (i) the thickness dependence and the monolayer-to-bulk transition, for which we consider the effects of one-, two-, three-, and four-layer hBN; (ii) the local-field effect, for which we numerically assess a common approximation of neglecting the in-plane local-field components of the substrate polarizability; and (iii) the spatial dependence, for which we consider the mixed WS 2 /MoS 2 bilayer adsorbed on hBN with either side facing the substrate. Finally, our results provide quantitative insight into how the substrate screening effects can be leveraged for band structure engineering.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Spectral and Spatial Dependencies in the Validation of Satellite-Based Aerosol Optical Depth from the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager Using the Aerosol Robotic Network

The regional and global scale of aerosols in the atmosphere can be quantified using the aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from satellite observations. To obtain reliable satellite AODs, conducting consistent validations and refining retrieval algorithms are crucial. AODs and Ångström exponents (AEs) measured with the aerosol robotic network (AERONET) are considered as the ground truth for satellite validations. AERONET AEs are used to collocate the wavelength of the AERONET AODs to those of the satellite AODs when there is a discordancy in their wavelengths. However, numerous validation studies have proposed different strategies by applying the AERONET AODs and AEs, and spatiotemporal collocation criteria. This study examined the impact of the wavelength and spatial collocation radius variations by comparing AODs at 550 nm derived from the geostationary ocean color imager (GOCI) with those obtained from the AERONET for the year 2016. The estimated AERONET AODs at 550 nm varied from 5.18% to 11.73% depending on the selection of AOD and AE, and the spatial collocation radii from 0 to 40 km, respectively. The longer the collocation radius and the higher the AODs, the greater the variability observed in the validation results. Overall, the selection of the spatial collocation radius had a stronger impact on the variability in the validation results obtained compared to the selection of the wavelength. The variability was also found in seasonal analysis. Therefore, it is recommended to carefully select the data wavelength and spatial collocation radius, consider seasonal effects, and provide this information when validating satellite AODs using AERONET.

GOCI↗

A spline-based method to obtain spatially dependent viscosity in confined flows

Coupling chemical physics to continuum theories is a critical step to understanding multi-scale phenomena. This paper will connect non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations to a continuum-based Navier-Stokes equation that has relaxed the assumption of spatial uniformity in viscosity. Using a form for viscosity based on spline interpolation, viscosity as a function of position is obtained from the least squares fit of the velocity profile measured from molecular simulations of flow in a nanochannel. Viscosity can vary widely, particularly near the channel boundaries, indicating that uniform viscosity is no longer appropriate. Variations of the viscosity near the channel surfaces imply that considering solution and surface chemistry could be necessary to rigorously understand molecular-scale flows in nanochannels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Benchmark solutions for the galactic ion transport equations: Energy and spatially dependent problems

Nontrivial benchmark solutions are developed for the galactic ion transport (GIT) equations in the straight-ahead approximation. These equations are used to predict potential radiation hazards in the upper atmosphere and in space. Two levels of difficulty are considered: (1) energy independent, and (2) spatially independent. The analysis emphasizes analytical methods never before applied to the GIT equations. Most of the representations derived have been numerically implemented and compared to more approximate calculations. Accurate ion fluxes are obtained (3 to 5 digits) for nontrivial sources. For monoenergetic beams, both accurate doses and fluxes are found. The benchmarks presented are useful in assessing the accuracy of transport algorithms designed to accommodate more complex radiation protection problems. In addition, these solutions can provide fast and accurate assessments of relatively simple shield configurations.

Ganapol, Barry D.↗

Spatial dependence of the local diffusion coefficient measured upstream of the November 12, 1978 interplanetary traveling shock

Characteristics of wuprathermal particles accelerated by quasi-parallel interplanetary traveling shocks have been generally explained in terms of a first order Fermi mechanism. Such models require diffusive scattering of particles upstream of the shock. This scattering is characterized by a local diffusion coefficient, kappa, which is determined by the local power density of waves in the upstream region. The dependence of the diffusion coefficient of suprathermal upstream protons on distance from the November 12, 1978 interplanetary traveling shock using a different approach is studied. Unlike previous studies this method, which is based on measurements of particle streaming and intensity gradients, does not rely on predictions. The local spatial variations of Kappa upstream of the November 12, 1978 shock have been chosen for study because the characteristics of this quasi-parallel shock have been extensively studied, and also because of its favorable geometry (i.e. B field nearly radial).

Gloeckler, G.↗

An Investigation on the Spatial Dependence of Autoconversion and Accretion in Eastern North Atlantic Boundary Layer Clouds (Final Report)

In many climate models, small clouds over the ocean rain too often and too lightly. This affects the amount of water in the clouds and ultimately the area covered by clouds both of which must be predicted by climate models. This in turn impacts how much sunlight these clouds can reflect to space and ultimately has a significant impact on the Earth radiation balance and climate. The purpose of this project was to use cloud and precipitation data being collected by DOE to evaluate the spatial variability of boundary layer clouds and precipitation, and the relationships between them with a view towards improving the representation of the physics that control the generation of precipitation in models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Spatially Dependent Seismic Wavefield Scattering from an Underground Chemical Explosion: Analysis of the Source Physics Experiment Dry Alluvium Geology Large- N Array

Explosion sources have been observed to generate significant shear‐wave energy despite their isotropic nature. To investigate this phenomenon, we conduct an analysis of the seismic data collected as part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE): Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) and investigate the generation of shear‐wave energy via scattering. The data were produced by three underground chemical explosions and consist of three‐component seismograms, which were recorded by the DAG Large‐N array. Synthetic tests suggest that for the DAG experiments, small‐scale stochastic heterogeneities, defined as features with correlation lengths of 10–100s of meters, are more effective than large‐scale geologic structure (scales >1–10 km) at reproducing the scattering of explosion generated wavefields observed at DAG. We analyze the seismic data for spatially variable ratios between transversely and radially polarized seismic energy, and then estimate the mean free path of P and S waves. All analyses are conducted within a frequency band of 5–50 Hz. The ratio of transversely to radially polarized energy is the highest in the east and west portion of the Large‐N array. In addition, the magnitude of the estimated S‐wave mean free path is shorter in the eastern portion of the Large‐N array. This variation indicates that the eastern area of the DAG array is where more scattering is occurring, suggesting azimuthal dependence of P‐to‐P and P‐to‐S scattering. Furthermore, this azimuthal dependence of P‐to‐S scattering can have implications for explosion discrimination based on spectral ratios of seismic wave types, because the general assumption is that explosions do not generate shear‐wave energy. Synthetic tests modeling only larger‐scale geologic structure had lower transversely polarized energy (only four stations showing a transversely to radially polarized energy ratio greater than 1) and fewer stations (<10) displaying shorter (<300 m) mean free paths than what was observed in the DAG data results.

Darrh, Andréa Nicole↗

Scale-dependent spatial variabilities of hydrological exchange flows and transit time in a large regulated river

Hydrological exchange flows (HEF) across the river-aquifer interface and the associated residence time of river water in the aquifer have important implications for contaminant plume migration and biogeochemical processes in the river corridor. HEFs and residence time are influenced by both subsurface physical features and hydrologic forcing related to the transport process, which can exhibit complex spatial and temporal variations. In this study, we used a massively parallel subsurface flow model and a particle-tracking model to study the influences of different control factors on spatial variability of HEFs and residence time distributions (RTD) in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River in Washington State. A total number of 100M particles were randomly injected in time and space and then tracked in a model domain that covers a 51-km 2 area (15.1M model cells). We used hourly river stages and groundwater levels to drive the model to provide dynamic velocity fields for the particle tracking in the simulation period that was longer than 2 years. The groundwater flow simulation and particle-tracking results provide the first comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution of HEFs and residence time in large complex river corridors. Overall, our results show that the aquifer hydrogeological structure has the strongest correlation with the extent and magnitude of exchange flux. The residence time exhibits complex patterns that are impacted by all the river geomorphologic, hydrodynamic, and hydrogeologic factors and are strongly correlated with the downwelling ratio of exchange flux. The new insights gained through this study can be used to support the development of reduced-order models of HEFs and RTDs for large complex river systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of the spatial dependence of temperature and gas and soot concentrations within large open hydrocarbon fuel fires

A series of large-scale JP-4 fuel pool fire tests was conducted to refine existing mathematical models of large fires. Seven tests were conducted to make chemical concentration and temperature measurements in 7.5 and 15 meter-diameter pool fires. Measurements were made at heights of 0.7, 1.4, 2.9, 5.7, 11.4, and 21.3 meters above the fires. Temperatures were measured at up to 50 locations each second during the fires. Chemistry samples were taken at up to 23 locations within the fires and analyzed for combustion chemistry and soot concentration. Temperature and combustion chemistry profiles obtained during two 7.5 meter-diameter and two 15 meter-diameter fires are included.

Johnson, H. T.↗

Geotail Observations of the Spatial Dependence of Kelvin-Helmholtz Waves on an Inbound Passage through the Dusk Flank Boundary Layer

On August 1, 1998, the Geotail spacecraft made an inbound passage perpendicular to the dusk magnetopause at the dusk terminator when the interplanetary magnetic field had been very northward for more than 10 hours. Typical 3-minute-period Kelvin-Helmholtz waves were observed and the density in the boundary layer and magnetopause was observed to have an unusually high value near 5 /cc. Compressible MHD calculations using the measured values at Geotail yield substantial growth rates that support the idea that the magnetopause was Kelvin-Helmholtz unstable. In contrast to many previous events where a spacecraft remained in the boundary layer, this passage allowed study of how the waves varied with distance inward from the magnetopause. In a layer adjacent to the magnetosheath, rapid magnetic field fluctuations were seen with variations of at least 50 nT/s. Initially the boundary waves led to transitions between the magnetosheath and the fluctuating region with magnetosheath-like densities and tailward velocities, but as the spacecraft moved inward, the transitions were more likely to be between the fluctuating region and a hotter region with magnetosphere-like densities of 5kc. Gradually the velocity perturbations began to exhibit 360 degree rotations. Such rotations are similar to the vortices seen earlier by the ISEE spacecraft throughout the magnetotail which were suspected of being caused by Kelvin-Helmholtz instability of the boundary.

Fairfield, D. H.↗