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NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗

NASA NTRS1997

Comparison of interplanetary type 2 radio burst observations by ISEE-3, Ulysses, and WIND with applications to space weather prediction

Interplanetary (IP) type 2 radio bursts are produced by IP shocks driven by solar ejecta, presumably involving shock acceleration of electrons that leads to radio emission. These radio bursts, which can be detected remotely by a sensitive spacecraft radio receiver, provide a method of tracking the leading edge of solar ejecta moving outward from the sun. Consequently, observations of these bursts sometimes provide advance warning of one or more days prior to the onset of geomagnetic activity induced by the solar ejecta. A robust lower limit on the fraction of intense geomagnetic storms, that are preceded by IP type 2 bursts, is provided. It is shown that 41 percent of the geomagnetic storms occurring during the interval September 1978 to February 1983 were preceded by type 2 events in this catalog, and reasons why the fraction is not larger are addressed. Differences in the observing capabilities of the International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) 3, Ulysses, and WIND, to explain why each of these similar spacecraft radio investigations provides a different perspective of IP type 2 emissions are reviewed.

MacDowall, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Coronal Transients and Space Weather Prediction Missions

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Coronal material ejections coronal mass ejections ↗

NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

No abstract available

Conjuction↗

NASA NTRS2006

The STEREO Mission: A New Approach to Space Weather Research

With the launch of the twin STEREO spacecraft in July 2006, a new capability will exist for both real-time space weather predictions and for advances in space weather research. Whereas previous spacecraft monitors of the sun such as ACE and SOH0 have been essentially on the sun-Earth line, the STEREO spacecraft will be in 1 AU orbits around the sun on either side of Earth and will be viewing the solar activity from distinctly different vantage points. As seen from the sun, the two spacecraft will separate at a rate of 45 degrees per year, with Earth bisecting the angle. The instrument complement on the two spacecraft will consist of a package of optical instruments capable of imaging the sun in the visible and ultraviolet from essentially the surface to 1 AU and beyond, a radio burst receiver capable of tracking solar eruptive events from an altitude of 2-3 Rs to 1 AU, and a comprehensive set of fields and particles instruments capable of measuring in situ solar events such as interplanetary magnetic clouds. In addition to normal daily recorded data transmissions, each spacecraft is equipped with a real-time beacon that will provide 1 to 5 minute snapshots or averages of the data from the various instruments. This beacon data will be received by NOAA and NASA tracking stations and then relayed to the STEREO Science Center located at Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland where the data will be processed and made available within a goal of 5 minutes of receipt on the ground. With STEREO's instrumentation and unique view geometry, we believe considerable improvement can be made in space weather prediction capability as well as improved understanding of the three dimensional structure of solar transient events.

Kaiser, michael L.↗

NASA NTRS2019

ISEP: A Joint SRAG/CCMC Collaboration to Improve Mitigation of Space Weather Effects on Crew Health in the Exo-LEO Era

The Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is tasked with monitoring changes to space weather and mitigating any resultant impacts to crew health and safety. As human spaceflight goals extend from Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) missions like the International Space Station (ISS) to the moon, Mars and beyond, SRAG will need to update their current approach for crew monitoring of and protection from radiation exposure due to energetic Solar Particle Events (ESPEs). Challenges faced in planning exo-LEO missions include the lack of protection from the Earth’s geomagnetic field employed by the ISS in addition to limited communication capability between the crew and the ground. In the event of an ESPE, the current ISS trajectory ensures that the vehicle is only traveling through fields of higher radiation exposure for a brief period of time; the Earth’s geomagnetic field prevents the penetration of the high-energy particles of concern throughout the majority of the orbit. Exo-LEO missions, on the other hand, require that the vehicle travel through free space, exposing vehicle and crew to the full impact of the ESPE. NASA has combined multiple approaches to resolve this radiation exposure issue. New vehicles are designed to take advantage of advances in particle transport modeling capabilities and shielding technology, allowing redistribution of mass throughout the vehicle to areas of thinner shielding when the energetic particle flux has increased to levels of concern. Although vehicle shielding is an important aspect of radiation exposure protection, there is a continued requirement to monitor and predict the space weather environment. To this end, SRAG maintains a console position in Mission Control with 24/7 mission support capability. In the event of increased solar activity, SRAG collaborates with the Flight Control Team (FCT) to determine if crew action (i.e., shelter) is required. During any increase in solar activity, the FCT needs three pieces of information to effectively decide the crew response in light of other required mission tasks: if an event (ESPE) will occur, how ‘intense’ an observed event will be, and how long will an observed event will last. An ideal alert system limits false alarms, therefore causing the crew to take action unnecessarily, without ignoring events that pose a hazard to the crew. SRAG’s current operational concept for ISS missions focuses on short-term forecasts, best described as ‘now-casting’. Console operators are in daily communication with the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for situational awareness purposes. When conditions exist that may lead to increased solar activity, operators receive notifications from SWPC. In the case of a well-connected ESPE, the console operator may only have on the order of minutes to several hours to notify the FCT of the event and provide a recommendation for crew action. As NASA shifts to exo-LEO missions, the increased time in free space as well as the reduced ability to communicate with the crew will force a transition in crew protection strategy that emphasizes improvments to both the accuracy and the lead time in forecasting capabilities.

Barzilla, Janet E.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Cloudy with a Chance of Solar Flares: The Sun as a Natural Hazard

Space weather is a naturally occurring phenomenon that represents a quantifiable risk to space- and ground-based infrastructure as well as society at large. Space weather hazards include permanent and correctable faults in computer systems, Global Positioning System (GPS) and high-frequency communication disturbances, increased airline passenger and astronaut radiation exposure, and electric grid disruption. From the National Space Weather Strategy, published by the Office of Science and Technology Policy in October 2015, space weather refers to the dynamic conditions of the space environment that arise from emissions from the Sun, which include solar flares, solar energetic particles, and coronal mass ejections. These emissions can interact with Earth and its surrounding space, including the Earth's magnetic field, potentially disrupting technologies and infrastructures. Space weather is measured using a range of space- and ground-based platforms that directly monitor the Sun, the Earth's magnetic field, the conditions in interplanetary space and impacts at Earth's surface, like neutron ground-level enhancement. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Space Weather Research Center and their international collaborators in government, industry, and academia are working towards improved techniques for predicting space weather as part of the strategy and action plan to better quantify and mitigate space weather hazards. In addition to accurately measuring and predicting space weather, we also need to continue developing more advanced techniques for evaluating space weather impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructure. Within the Earth's atmosphere, elevated neutron flux driven by atmosphere-particle interactions from space weather is a primary risk source. Ground-based neutron sources form an essential foundation for quantifying space weather impacts in a variety of systems.

neutron flux↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards a flexible framework for community-wide ensemble forecasting tailored for major space environment impacts

To build continuously improving space weather predictive capabilities based on science and enable assessments and rapid implementations of advances in research into source-to-impact modelling systems we need: to assemble parts of the puzzle by solving problems focused on specific physical domains; to identify essential space environment quantities (ESEQs) passed between domains and linked to impacts; evaluate modeling capabilities for each ESEQ; connect all validated solutions from space weather origins on the sun to impacts on humans and critical infrastructure; to design displays for ensemble predictions tailored for major space weather user groups; to build a collaborative environment for efficient sharing of information and capabilities (models/data/expertise) and collaborative development. The presentation will overview existing community-wide space weather forecasting frameworks and research-to-operations pipelines and discuss opportunities to build a collaborative plug-and-play platform for interconnecting predictive capabilities developed under different space weather programs.

space weather↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards A Flexible Framework for Community-Wide Ensemble Forecasting Tailored for Major Space Environment Impacts

space weather↗

NASA NTRS2015

Forecasting Space Weather Events for a Neighboring World

Shortly after NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission (MAVEN) spacecraft entered Mars' orbit on 21 September 2014, scientists glimpsed the Martian atmosphere's response to a front of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). In response to some solar flares and CMEs, streams of SEPs burst from the solar atmosphere and are further accelerated in the interplanetary medium between the Sun and the planets. These particles deposit their energy and momentum into anything in their path, including the Martian atmosphere and MAVEN particle detectors. MAVEN scientists had been alerted to the likely CME-Mars encounter by a space weather prediction system that had its origins in space weather forecasting for Earth but now forecasts space weather for Earth's neighboring planets. The two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft and Solar Heliospheric Observatory observed a CME on 26 September, with a trajectory that suggested a Mars intercept. A computer model developed for solar wind prediction, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model [e.g., Zheng et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2011], running in real time at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA Goddard since 2006, showed the CME propagating in the direction of Mars (Figure 1). According to MAVEN particle detectors, the disturbance and accompanying SEP enhancement at the leading edge of the CME reached Mars at approximately 17 hours Universal Time on 29 September 2014. Such SEPs may have a profound effect on atmospheric escape - they are believed to be a possible means for driving atmospheric loss. SEPs can cause loss of Mars' upper atmosphere through several loss mechanisms including sputtering of the atmosphere. Sputtering occurs when atoms are ejected from the atmosphere due to impacts with energetic particles.

space weather↗

NASA NTRS2022

Building Space Weather Literacy Through Sustained Engagement

Space weather affects all space systems, both natural and artificial. There is a rapid growth of awareness in past decades of this reality and a critical need for space weather prediction due to technology advances. Above all, space weather science and its history are outstanding vehicles for teaching science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) topics. As a white paper group, we recommend that the Decadal Survey builds space weather literacy within K–14 classrooms and the general public, covering all areas of studies in Heliophysics through sustained engagement beyond celestial and spacecraft events.

Space Weather↗

NASA NTRS2022

CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting

Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multipoint measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyze the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, that is, the M4.4 flare of 29 November and the C7.4 flare of 7 December. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located ∼60° east of the Sun–Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of “predictions at 360°” using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA–Enlil–SEPMOD modeling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a “mini-ensemble.” We validate our results using in situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock-accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here.

Coronal mass ejections↗

NASA NTRS2014

Geospace Missions for Space Weather and the Next Scientific Challenges

Currently there is an active international flotilla of spacecraft that continuously observe and measure the dynamic space environment that surrounds our planet. These spacecraft have remote sensors for photons and particles, and in situ instruments for plasmas, fields and particles. They provide the data input to guide, motivate, and validate predictive space weather models used by decision makers and for a myriad of scientific investigations. This talk will briefly survey the current Geospace missions relevant to space weather, what they observe, and why. This talk will conclude with the description of two most significant scientific challenges that must be met in order to advance our understanding and prediction of space weather, and its impacts to society. They are the genesis and evolution of ionospheric variability and the interplanetary magnetic field. Concepts of possible solutions for these two challenges will be discussed.

Spann, James↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Increasing Accessibility of the Runs-on-Request Metadata, Data, and Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

Space weather models are essential to our ability to understand and predict space weather events. For over 20 years, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) has been providing transformative tools and platforms for hosting space weather models and associated services, free and open to anyone interested in studying space weather. Runs-on-Request system (ROR) is one of the popular services at CCMC that permits researchers and other end-users to exercise cutting-edge hosted heliophysics and space weather models using a simple web interface, as well as collaborate on an extensive and continuously growing archive of over 28,000 model run results. Similar to other projects at CCMC, ROR has grown as a community project that strives to be open and transparent to its users. In this poster, we discuss some of our recent efforts to further expose ROR data, metadata, and services to the end users through both custom and community-developed access protocols. We also discuss how in-house science support provided by the CCMC team plays a paramount role in making ROR data and services truly accessible by the community.

Maksym Petrenko↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supporting Space Weather Modelling at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)

Space weather models are essential to our ability to understand and predict space weather events. Nonetheless, some of the most cutting-edge models may struggle to move past the initial research stage, remaining unknown and inaccessible to a wider research audience, thereby hindering validation, intercomparison and adoption of the models. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) closes this gap by providing a convenient platform for hosting space weather models and associated services. Using these services, researchers and other end-users may exercise, evaluate, and intercompare contributed models, as well as collaborate on a growing archive of model run results. In this presentation, we will discuss current and planned capabilities in some of the model services at CCMC, including Runs-on-Request, Instant Runs, and Real-Time Continuous Runs. We will also review new models added to the extensive collection of space weather models hosted at CCMC. Finally, we will talk about our efforts at streamlining model delivery to CCMC, including support for containerized models and establishment of an open collaborative environment based on Amazon Web Services (AWS).

space weather↗

NASA NTRS2013

Space Weather Impacts to Conjunction Assessment: A NASA Robotic Orbital Safety Perspective

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recognizes the risk of on-orbit collisions from other satellites and debris objects and has instituted a process to identify and react to close approaches. The charter of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) task is to protect NASA robotic (unmanned) assets from threats posed by other space objects. Monitoring for potential collisions requires formulating close-approach predictions a week or more in the future to determine analyze, and respond to orbital conjunction events of interest. These predictions require propagation of the latest state vector and covariance assuming a predicted atmospheric density and ballistic coefficient. Any differences between the predicted drag used for propagation and the actual drag experienced by the space objects can potentially affect the conjunction event. Therefore, the space environment itself, in particular how space weather impacts atmospheric drag, is an essential element to understand in order effectively to assess the risk of conjunction events. The focus of this research is to develop a better understanding of the impact of space weather on conjunction assessment activities: both accurately determining the current risk and assessing how that risk may change under dynamic space weather conditions. We are engaged in a data-- ]mining exercise to corroborate whether or not observed changes in a conjunction event's dynamics appear consistent with space weather changes and are interested in developing a framework to respond appropriately to uncertainty in predicted space weather. In particular, we use historical conjunction event data products to search for dynamical effects on satellite orbits from changing atmospheric drag. Increased drag is expected to lower the satellite specific energy and will result in the satellite's being 'later' than expected, which can affect satellite conjunctions in a number of ways depending on the two satellites' orbits and the geometry of the conjunction. These satellite time offsets can form the basis of a new technique under development to determine whether space weather perturbations, such as coronal mass ejections, are likely to increase, decrease, or have a neutral effect on the collision risk due to a particular close approach.

Ghrist, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2022

On the Importance of Investigating CME Complexity Evolution During Interplanetary Propagation

This perspective paper brings to light the need for comprehensive studies on the evolution of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) complexity during propagation. To date, few studies of ICME complexity exist. Here, we define ICME complexity and associated changes in complexity, describe recent works and their limitations, and outline key science questions that need to be tackled. Fundamental research on ICME complexity changes from the solar corona to 1 AU and beyond is critical to our physical understanding of the evolution and interaction of transients in the inner heliosphere. Furthermore, a comprehensive understanding of such changes is required to understand the space weather impact of ICMEs at different heliospheric locations and to improve on predictive space weather models.

CME↗

NASA NTRS2008

Space Weather: What is it, and Why Should a Meteorologist Care?

"Space weather" is a term coined almost 15 years ago to describe environmental conditions ABOVE Earth's atmosphere that affect satellites and astronauts. As society has become more dependent on technology, we nave found that space weather conditions increasingly affect numerous commercial and infrastructure sectors: airline operations, the precision positioning industry, and the electric power grid, to name a few. Similar to meteorology where "weather" often refers to severe conditions, "space weather" includes geomagnetic storms, radiation storms, and radio blackouts. But almost all space weather conditions begin at the Sun--our middle-age, magnetically-variable star. At NASA, the science behind space weather takes place in the Heliophysics Division. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, is manned jointly by NCAA and US Air Force personnel, and it provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth. Organizationally, it resides in NOAA's National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this seminar we hope to give the audience a brief introduction to the causes of space weather, discuss some of the effects, and describe the state of the art in forecasting. Our goal is to highlight that meteorologists are increasingly becoming the "first responders" to questions about space weather causes and effects.

SaintCyr, Chris↗