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Legacy surface change analyses of the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence for direct comparison to planned NA-22 underground conventional high-explosive experiments (Source Physics Experiment 3 (SPE3) - RV/DC Task 1.3 FY22 Final Report)

Recent work under two previous phases of the NNSA NA-22 Source Physics Experiment (SPE) have shown that underground chemical high-explosive experiments can produce detectable surface changes that differ in spatial extent and vertical magnitude depending on the geologic media at the site (Schultz-Fellenz et al., 2018; 2020; Crawford et al., 2021). Neither of these two prior phases of SPE identified natural earthquake-related surface effects in the same region that occurred at a similar depth as the explosive experiments for direct comparison. While earthquakes can also produce surface changes that are detectable using remote sensing data analyses, it is expected that the pattern and spatial extent of surface changes would vary between earthquakes and explosions. However, no direct-observed surface-change signature comparison between earthquakes and explosions has ever been performed. The SPE Phase 3 Rock Valley/Direct Comparison (RV/DC) program presents a unique opportunity to investigate and characterize co-occurrence of both earthquakes and explosions. In this project, we worked to address five tasks in a workflow, as follows: 1. Identify and obtain existing high-resolution legacy satellite and aerial imagery as close in time before and after the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence to temporally constrain the analyses. 2. Transform these pre-earthquake and post-earthquake datasets into digital elevation models (DEMs) using geospatial analysis software packages (e.g., ArcGIS, Agisoft Metashape, and Google Earth Engine). 3. Perform DEM differencing analyses to assess and quantify earthquake-related changes from the 1993 sequence, and develop map products that visualize these analyses. 4. Use the analyses from (3) to: (a) assess spatial distribution and magnitude of surface changes due to the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence, and (b) determine parameters of forthcoming, planned explosion-related surface change data collection from sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (e.g., spatial extent of collection, design and density of survey control, sensors to deploy, forward speed and line spacing of UAV flight lines, flight altitude). 5. Develop a summary report on the analyses, including how the analyses define parameters and identify focus areas for any future surface change analytical field campaigns related to the explosive experiment. Analyzing these legacy data and identifying whether they can detect any surface changes related to the earthquake sequence facilitates opportunities for direct signature comparison of surface change from explosions at one location, which has never previously been performed. Comparing the surface change signatures from a co-located and depth-equivalent earthquake and an explosion could help to advance remote sensing event discrimination techniques. This report summarizes the work completed toward this ambitious goal.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Acoustic Research under the Source Physics Experiment

The Source Physics Experiment series is a long-term research and development (R&D) effort under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration focused on improving the physical understanding of how chemical explosions generate seismoacoustic signals. Beginning in 2011, a series of subsurface chemical explosions in two different and highly contrasting geologies were conducted at the Nevada National Security Site in Nevada, USA with the objective of improving simulation and modeling approaches to explosion identification, yield estimation and other monitoring applications. The two executed phases of the series provide new explosion signature source data from a wide range of geophysical diagnostic equipment; recorded data from the test series is now openly available to the broader seismoacoustic community. This manuscript details the executed test series, deployed seismoacoustic networks, and summarizes major scientific achievements utilizing recorded signatures from the explosive tests.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Material Property Determinations for Rock Valley Legacy Samples in Support of Source Physics Experiment

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve nonproliferation verification and monitoring capabilities. The overarching goals of the SPE program are to improve understanding of prompt signals and physical signatures that develop from underground chemical explosions and associated modeling capabilities. Our work focuses on a primary factor controlling chemical explosion induced signals and signatures: the material properties of the rocks in which the chemical explosion takes place. This document reports on material property determinations of legacy core USGS Test Well F and outcrop analogs for the subsurface stratigraphy for the third phase of SPE in the Rock Valley (RV) area of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The objective of this work is to establish a baseline set of lithologic descriptions and material properties expected prior to observatory borehole drilling in support of the SPE-RVDC (Rock Valley Direct Comparison) experiment. We determine for each rock type the compressional failure envelope, elastic properties as a function of stress (bulk modulus versus mean stress, shear modulus versus shear stress, Young’s modulus versus axial stress and Poisson’s ratio versus axial stress), indirect tensile strength, and porosity. Geologic characterization, both at the core-scale and microscale, provides context for using the data in modeling efforts and to inform interpretations for the material properties testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Aftershocks of a Chemical Explosion in Granite from the Source Physics Experiment Phase I

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is a multiphase experiment to better understand explosion source physics and thereby improve explosion monitoring. The rst phase (Phase I) examined the explosion source in a hard-rock medium and took place in a granite outcrop called the Climax Stock section of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). This series of chemical explosions are called the Wet Granite Geology (WGG) events, but are usually referred to simply as the SPE events (i.e., SPE-1, SPE-2, etc.). Event information for the chemical explosions is given in Table 1. The study of explosion aftershocks can aid in understanding of in-situ stresses and be used as a discriminant for earthquakes [Ford and Walter, 2010]. Sweeney and Harben reported no observed aftershocks for SPE-1 and -2, respectively. They calculated a minimum magnitude of observation based on the noise oor of the seismic array and predicted at least one or two events in the week after the events using the hard-rock aftershock model from Ford and Labak. Possible explanations for the null observation ranged from instrumental - poor seismometer coupling, to physical - the shallow depth of burial was unable to access the deep tectonic stress that causes some explosion aftershocks. We extend the analysis of Sweeney and Harben to the largest of the SPE Phase I chemical explosions, SPE-5, which was approximately a 5 tonne TNT-equivalent shot at 76.5 m depth. This event registered as an M L 2 on the University of Nevada, Reno seismic network and should produce a measurable aftershock sequence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Relative Source Time Functions, Spectral Ratios, and Near‐Source Spallation in the Source Physics Experiment Phase I Chemical Explosions

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase I was composed of six chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Sites (NNSS) between 2011 and 2016. The experiment provided a robust set of dense, local to regional distance observations suitable for characterizing shallow chemical explosions located within the same borehole. We investigate the time-dependent source processes of each chemical explosion using Relative Source Time Function (RSTF) estimation, derived from five linear seismometer profiles located between 100 and 2000 m of the shot location. The RSTF estimate provide a detailed characterization of each chemical explosion's time-history. Subsequent modeling efforts suggest these measurements may be useful for precise characterization of explosion processes and spallation. RSTF estimation allows us to expand our understanding of the SPE Phase I chemical explosion series. Application of these techniques contributes to our understanding of explosion source physics and facilitates future applications to additional seismic source experiments and characterization of explosion phenomenology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Science Plan

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) series is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve U.S. arms control and nuclear nonproliferation verification and monitoring capabilities. The findings from the SPE will advance the United States’ nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities, particularly with respect to detection, discrimination and determination of yields associated with small nuclear explosions that can be lost amid the noisy seismo-acoustic background from other sources. The data generated from the SPE, a series of well-designed and recorded chemical explosions, will contribute to the development and validation of first-principles explosive source generated seismo-acoustic modeling codes. These codes will then facilitate the update of semi-empirical methods, currently based on historic test site data, such that key explosion observables can be reproduced, thus improving confidence in nuclear test monitoring in new areas and/or under novel emplacement conditions. The overall SPE project is comprised of both the development of the new explosion simulation codes and the chemical explosion test series. The chemical explosion test series will generate the empirical data required to both develop and validate the new simulation codes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data Release Report for Source Physics Experiments 2 and 3 (SPE-2 and SPE-3) Nevada National Security Site

The second Source Physics Experiment shot (SPE-2) was conducted in Nevada on October 25, 2011, at 1900:00.011623 Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). The explosive source was 997 kilograms (kg) trinitrotoluene (TNT) equivalent of sensitized heavy ammonium fuel oil (SHANFO) detonated at a depth of 45.7 meters (m). The third Source Physics Experiment shot (SPE-3) was conducted in Nevada on July 24, 2012, at 1800:00.44835 GMT. The explosive source was 905 kg TNT equivalent of SHANFO detonated at a depth of 45.8 m. Both shots were recorded by an extensive set of instrumentation that includes sensors both at near-field (less than 100 m) and far-field (100 m or greater) distances. The near-field instruments consisted of three-component accelerometers deployed in boreholes at 15, 46, and 55 m depths around the shot and a set of single-component vertical accelerometers on the surface. The far-field network was composed of a variety of seismic and acoustic sensors, including short-period geophones, broadband seismometers, three-component accelerometers, and rotational seismometers at distances of 100 m to 25 kilometers. This report coincides with the release of these data for analysts and organizations that are not participants in this program. This report describes the second and third Source Physics Experiment shots and the various types of near-field and farfield data that are available.This revised document includes reports on baseline shift corrections for the SPE-2 and SPE-3 shots that were missing from the original January 2015 version.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Chemical Explosion Experiments to Improve Nuclear Test Monitoring [Developing a New Paradigm for Nuclear Test Monitoring with the Source Physics Experiments (SPE)]

A series of chemical explosions, called the Source Physics Experiments (SPE), is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to develop a new more physics-based paradigm for nuclear test monitoring. Currently, monitoring relies on semi-empirical models to discriminate explosions from earthquakes and to estimate key parameters such as yield. While these models have been highly successful monitoring established test sites, there is concern that future tests could occur in media and at scale depths of burial outside of our empirical experience. This is highlighted by North Korean tests, which exhibit poor performance of a reliable discriminant, mb:Ms (Selby et al., 2012), possibly due to source emplacement and differences in seismic responses for nascent and established test sites. The goal of SPE is to replace these semi-empirical relationships with numerical techniques grounded in a physical basis and thus applicable to any geologic setting or depth.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Data Release Report for Source Physics Experiment 1 (SPE-1), Nevada National Security Site

The first Source Physics Experiment shot (SPE-1) was conducted in May 2011. The explosive source was a ~100-kilogram TNT-equivalent chemical set at a depth of 60 meters. It was recorded by an extensive set of instrumentation that includes sensors both at near-field (less than 100 meters) and far-field (more than 100 meters) distances. The near-field instruments consisted of three-component accelerometers deployed in boreholes around the shot and a set of singlecomponent vertical accelerometers on the surface. The far-field network comprised a variety of seismic and acoustic sensors, including short-period geophones, broadband seismometers, three-component accelerometers, and rotational seismometers at distances of 100 meters to 25 kilometers. This report coincides with the release of these data for analysts and organizations that are not participants in this program. This report describes the first Source Physics Experiment and the various types of near-field and far-field data that are available.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Data Release Report for Source Physics Experiments 2 and 3 (SPE-2 and SPE-3) Nevada National Security Site

The second Source Physics Experiment shot (SPE-2) was conducted in Nevada on October 25, 2011, at 1900:00.011623 Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). The explosive source was 997 kilograms (kg) trinitrotoluene (TNT) equivalent of sensitized heavy ammonium fuel oil (SHANFO) detonated at a depth of 45.7 meters (m). The third Source Physics Experiment shot (SPE-3) was conducted in Nevada on July 24, 2012, at 1800:00.44835 GMT. The explosive source was 905 kg TNT equivalent of SHANFO detonated at a depth of 45.8 m. Both shots were recorded by an extensive set of instrumentation that includes sensors both at near-field (less than 100 m) and far-field (100 m or greater) distances. The near-field instruments consisted of three-component accelerometers deployed in boreholes at 15, 46, and 55 m depths around the shot and a set of single-component vertical accelerometers on the surface. The far-field network was composed of a variety of seismic and acoustic sensors, including short-period geophones, broadband seismometers, three-component accelerometers, and rotational seismometers at distances of 100 m to 25 kilometers. This report coincides with the release of these data for analysts and organizations that are not participants in this program. This report describes the second and third Source Physics Experiment shots and the various types of near-field and far-field data that are available.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Data Release Report Source Physics Experiments 5 and 6 (SPE-5 and SPE-6), Nevada National Security Site

The fifth Source Physics Experiment test (SPE-5) was conducted in Nevada on April 26, 2016, at 20:49:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The explosive source was 4,288.7 kilograms (kg) of polymer-bonded explosive (PBXN) –110, equivalent to 5,035 kg of trinitrotoluene (TNT) detonated at a depth of 76.5 meters (m). The sixth Source Physics Experiment test (SPE-6) was conducted in Nevada on October 12, 2016 at 18:36:00 UTC. The explosive source was 1,982.2 kg of PBXC-141, equivalent to 2,240.2 kg of TNT detonated at the depth of 31.4 m. Both tests were recorded by an extensive set of instrumentation that includes sensors both at near-field (less than 100 m) and far-field (100 m or greater) distances. The near-field instruments consisted of three-component accelerometers installed at various depths ranging from 4 to 99 m below ground surface in boreholes positioned around the shot, and a set of single-component vertical accelerometers on the surface. The far-field network was composed of a variety of seismic and acoustic sensors, including short-period geophones, broadband seismometers, and three-component accelerometers at distances of 100 m to 400 kilometers. In addition, both explosions were recorded in a temporary array of 996 geophones arranged in a densely spaced grid pattern (“large N”). This report coincides with the release of these data for analysts and organizations that are not participants in this program. This report describes the fifth and sixth Source Physics Experiment tests and the various types of near-field and far-field data that are available.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic Wave Coherence as a Function of Propagation Azimuth at the Large-N Array, Source Physics Experiment

The Large-N array of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) consisted, in part, of 496 vertical component geophones that recorded the seismic wave field produced by the SPE-5 buried chemical explosion. Preliminary observations of the data showed a large degree of azimuthally dependent seismic scattering, particularly for post-P wave arrivals, hindering surface wave analysis. We document and quantify the azimuthal dependence of the wave field scattering in order to guide future coherent wave field processing methods. Specifically, we form three linear arrays, with different nominal source-receiver azimuths, by extracting a subset of the Large-N stations. For each linear array, we evaluate wave field coherence as a function of frequency and inter-station distance. For P waves, we observe that there is a strong azimuthal dependence of wave coherence, with the highest degree of scattering occurring in a northwest/southeast propagation direction. This suggests that there are structural elements beneath the Large-N array that affect the direct source to receiver body wave ray path. We also observe that the scattering of the post-P energy displays a coherence that is dependent on both frequency and azimuthal direction. This energy is preferentially coherent in the southwest-to-northeast propagation direction, consistent with the strike of the steeply dipping fault (Boundary fault) adjacent to the northeast side of the Large-N array, but only at low frequencies (<10 Hz). At higher frequencies, the azimuthally dependent wave coherence diminishes, suggesting that the scattering of high frequency portion of the post-P wave field is independent of the large-scale geologic structure at this site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Science Plan (Version 2.4c)

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) series is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve U.S. arms control and nuclear nonproliferation verification and monitoring capabilities. The findings from the SPE will advance the United States’ nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities, particularly with respect to detection, discrimination and determination of yields associated with small nuclear explosions that can be lost amid the noisy seismo-acoustic background from other sources. The data generated from the SPE, a series of well-designed and recorded chemical explosions, will contribute to the development and validation of first-principles explosive source generated seismo-acoustic modeling codes. These codes will then facilitate the update of semi-empirical methods, currently based on historic test site data, such that key explosion observables can be reproduced, thus improving confidence in nuclear test monitoring in new areas and/or under novel emplacement conditions. The overall SPE project is comprised of both the development of the new explosion simulation codes and the chemical explosion test series. The chemical explosion test series will generate the empirical data required to both develop and validate the new simulation codes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Characterization of Spall in Hard Rock from Observations and Simulations of the Source Physics Experiment Phase I

In this work, spall signals from the Source Physics Experiments are presented, analyzed, and modeled for insight to the explosion source. The observed signal is similar in nature to nearby historical nuclear explosions, and the surface force-time history or velocity can be interpreted with the same model. We use the models for peak spall velocity, spalled mass, and spall depth and radius derived from historical nuclear explosions to parameterize the physical force-time history model from Stump (1985) and show that this parameterized model can be used for spall prediction. The spall signal is also investigated with a numerical continuum model that incorporates gravity. Peak velocity and dwell time are well predicted, and the multiple slap-down phases are captured if one includes a weak near-surface layer similar to the geologic observation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Site Characterization of the Source Physics Experiment Phase II Location Using Seismic Reflection Data

An objective of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is to identify low-yield nuclear explosions from a regional distance. Low-yield nuclear explosions can often be difficult to discriminate among the clutter of natural and man-made explosive events (e.g., earthquakes and mine blasts). The SPE is broken into three phases. Phase I has provided the first of the physics-based data to test the empirical models that have been used to discriminate nuclear events. The Phase I series of tests were placed within a highly fractured granite body. The evolution of the project has led to development of Phase II, to be placed within the opposite end member of geology, an alluvium environment, thereby increasing the database of waveforms to build upon in the discrimination models. Both the granite and alluvium sites have hosted nearby nuclear tests, which provide comparisons for the chemical test data. Phase III of the SPE is yet to be determined.

Seismic↗

Spatially Dependent Seismic Wavefield Scattering from an Underground Chemical Explosion: Analysis of the Source Physics Experiment Dry Alluvium Geology Large- N Array

Explosion sources have been observed to generate significant shear‐wave energy despite their isotropic nature. To investigate this phenomenon, we conduct an analysis of the seismic data collected as part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE): Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) and investigate the generation of shear‐wave energy via scattering. The data were produced by three underground chemical explosions and consist of three‐component seismograms, which were recorded by the DAG Large‐N array. Synthetic tests suggest that for the DAG experiments, small‐scale stochastic heterogeneities, defined as features with correlation lengths of 10–100s of meters, are more effective than large‐scale geologic structure (scales >1–10 km) at reproducing the scattering of explosion generated wavefields observed at DAG. We analyze the seismic data for spatially variable ratios between transversely and radially polarized seismic energy, and then estimate the mean free path of P and S waves. All analyses are conducted within a frequency band of 5–50 Hz. The ratio of transversely to radially polarized energy is the highest in the east and west portion of the Large‐N array. In addition, the magnitude of the estimated S‐wave mean free path is shorter in the eastern portion of the Large‐N array. This variation indicates that the eastern area of the DAG array is where more scattering is occurring, suggesting azimuthal dependence of P‐to‐P and P‐to‐S scattering. Furthermore, this azimuthal dependence of P‐to‐S scattering can have implications for explosion discrimination based on spectral ratios of seismic wave types, because the general assumption is that explosions do not generate shear‐wave energy. Synthetic tests modeling only larger‐scale geologic structure had lower transversely polarized energy (only four stations showing a transversely to radially polarized energy ratio greater than 1) and fewer stations (<10) displaying shorter (<300 m) mean free paths than what was observed in the DAG data results.

Darrh, Andréa Nicole↗