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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Electric-current Neutralization, Magnetic Shear, and Eruptive Activity in Solar Active Regions

The physical conditions that determine whether or not solar active regions (ARs) produce strong flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are not yet well understood. Here, we investigate the association between electric-current neutralization, magnetic shear along polarity inversion lines (PILs), and eruptive activity in four ARs: two emerging and two well-developed ones. We find that the CME-producing ARs are characterized by a strongly non-neutralized total current, while the total current in the ARs that did not produce CMEs is almost perfectly neutralized. The difference in the PIL shear between these two groups is much less pronounced, which suggests that the degree of current neutralization may serve as a better proxy for assessing the ability of ARs to produce CMEs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in different layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Revisiting the question: Does high-latitude solar activity lead low-latitude solar activity in time phase?

Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are used to investigate whether high-latitude solar activity leads low-latitude solar activity in time phase or not, using the data of the Carte Synoptique solar filaments archive from 1919 March to 1989 December. From the cross-correlation analysis, high-latitude solar filaments have a time lead of 12 Carrington solar rotations with respect to low-latitude ones. Both the cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence indicate that high-latitude solar filaments lead low-latitude ones in time phase. Furthermore, low-latitude solar activity is better correlated with high-latitude solar activity of the previous cycle than with that of the following cycle, which is statistically significant. Thus, the present study confirms that high-latitude solar activity in the polar regions is indeed better correlated with the low-latitude solar activity of the following cycle than with that of the previous cycle, namely, leading in time phase.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Statistical analysis of the horizontal divergent flow in emerging solar active regions

Solar active regions (ARs) are thought to be formed by magnetic fields from the convection zone. Our flux emergence simulations revealed that a strong horizontal divergent flow (HDF) of unmagnetized plasma appears at the photosphere before the flux begins to emerge. In our earlier study, we analyzed HMI data for a single AR and confirmed presence of this precursor plasma flow in the actual Sun. In this paper, as an extension of our earlier study, we conducted a statistical analysis of the HDFs to further investigate their characteristics and better determine the properties. From SDO/HMI data, we picked up 23 flux emergence events over a period of 14 months, the total flux of which ranges from 10{sup 20} to 10{sup 22} Mx. Out of 23 selected events, 6 clear HDFs were detected by the method we developed in our earlier study, and 7 HDFs detected by visual inspection were added to this statistic analysis. We found that the duration of the HDF is on average 61 minutes and the maximum HDF speed is on average 3.1 km s{sup –1}. We also estimated the rising speed of the subsurface magnetic flux to be 0.6-1.4 km s{sup –1}. These values are highly consistent with our previous one-event analysis as well as our simulation results. The observation results lead us to the conclusion that the HDF is a rather common feature in the earliest phase of AR emergence. Moreover, our HDF analysis has the capability of determining the subsurface properties of emerging fields that cannot be directly measured.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth’s climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth’s global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Block-induced Complex Structures Building the Flare-productive Solar Active Region 12673

Solar active region (AR) 12673 produced 4 X-class, 27 M-class, and numerous lower-class flares during its passage across the visible solar disk in 2017 September. Our study is to answer the questions why this AR was so flare-productive and how the X9.3 flare, the largest one of the past decade, took place. We find that there was a sunspot in the initial several days, and then two bipolar regions emerged nearby it successively. Due to the standing of the pre-existing sunspot, the movement of the bipoles was blocked, while the pre-existing sunspot maintained its quasi-circular shaped umbra only with the disappearance of a part of penumbra. Thus, the bipolar patches were significantly distorted, and the opposite polarities formed two semi-circular shaped structures. After that, two sequences of new bipolar regions emerged within the narrow semi-circular zone, and the bipolar patches separated along the curved channel. The new bipoles sheared and interacted with the previous ones, forming a complex topological system, during which numerous flares occurred. At the highly sheared region, a great deal of free energy was accumulated. On September 6, one negative patch near the polarity inversion line began to rapidly rotate and shear with the surrounding positive fields, and consequently the X9.3 flare erupted. Our results reveal that the block-induced complex structures built the flare-productive AR and the X9.3 flare was triggered by an erupting filament due to the kink instability. To better illustrate this process, a block-induced eruption model is proposed for the first time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

SIGN SINGULARITY AND FLARES IN SOLAR ACTIVE REGION NOAA 11158

Solar Active Region NOAA 11158 has hosted a number of strong flares, including one X2.2 event. The complexity of current density and current helicity are studied through cancellation analysis of their sign-singular measure, which features power-law scaling. Spectral analysis is also performed, revealing the presence of two separate scaling ranges with different spectral index. The time evolution of parameters is discussed. Sudden changes of the cancellation exponents at the time of large flares and the presence of correlation with Extreme-Ultra-Violet and X-ray flux suggest that eruption of large flares can be linked to the small-scale properties of the current structures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

CORONAL MAGNETOGRAPHY OF A SIMULATED SOLAR ACTIVE REGION FROM MICROWAVE IMAGING SPECTROPOLARIMETRY

We have simulated the Expanded Owens Valley Solar Array (EOVSA) radio images generated at multiple frequencies from a model solar active region, embedded in a realistic solar disk model, and explored the resulting data cube for different spectral analysis schemes to evaluate the potential for realizing one of EOVSA’s most important scientific goals—coronal magnetography. In this paper, we focus on modeling the gyroresonance and free–free emission from an on-disk solar active region model with realistic complexities in electron density, temperature and magnetic field distribution. We compare the magnetic field parameters extrapolated from the image data cube along each line of sight after folding through the EOVSA instrumental profile with the original (unfolded) parameters used in the model. We find that even the most easily automated, image-based analysis approach (Level-0) provides reasonable quantitative results, although they are affected by systematic effects due to finite sampling in the Fourier (UV) plane. Finally, we note the potential for errors due to misidentified harmonics of the gyrofrequency, and discuss the prospects for applying a more sophisticated spectrally based analysis scheme (Level-1) to resolve the issue in cases where improved UV coverage and spatial resolution are available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

REGULARITY OF THE NORTH–SOUTH ASYMMETRY OF SOLAR ACTIVITY: REVISITED

Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) extended the Greenwich series of sunspot area from the year 1874 back to 1821. The ESAI's yearly sunspot area in the northern and southern hemispheres from 1821 to 2013 is utilized to investigate characteristics of the north–south hemispherical asymmetry of sunspot activity. Periodical behavior of about 12 solar cycles is also confirmed from the ESAI data set to exist in dominant hemispheres, linear regression lines of yearly asymmetry values, and cumulative counts of yearly sunspot areas in the hemispheres for solar cycles. The period is also inferred to appear in both the cumulative difference in the yearly sunspot areas in the hemispheres over the entire time interval and in its statistical Student's t-test. The hemispherical bias of sunspot activity should be regarded as an impossible stochastic phenomenon over a long time period.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

MAGNETIC PROPERTIES OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS THAT GOVERN LARGE SOLAR FLARES AND ERUPTIONS

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), especially the larger ones, emanate from active regions (ARs). With the aim of understanding the magnetic properties that govern such flares and eruptions, we systematically survey all flare events with Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite levels of ≥M5.0 within 45° from disk center between 2010 May and 2016 April. These criteria lead to a total of 51 flares from 29 ARs, for which we analyze the observational data obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory . More than 80% of the 29 ARs are found to exhibit δ -sunspots, and at least three ARs violate Hale’s polarity rule. The flare durations are approximately proportional to the distance between the two flare ribbons, to the total magnetic flux inside the ribbons, and to the ribbon area. From our study, one of the parameters that clearly determine whether a given flare event is CME-eruptive or not is the ribbon area normalized by the sunspot area, which may indicate that the structural relationship between the flaring region and the entire AR controls CME productivity. AR characterization shows that even X-class events do not require δ -sunspots or strong-field, high-gradient polarity inversion lines. An investigation of historical observational data suggests the possibility that the largest solar ARs, with magnetic flux of 2 × 10{sup 23} Mx, might be able to produce “superflares” with energies of the order of 10{sup 34} erg. The proportionality between the flare durations and magnetic energies is consistent with stellar flare observations, suggesting a common physical background for solar and stellar flares.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Periodic analysis of solar activity and its link with the Arctic oscillation phenomenon

Based on spectrum analysis, we provide the arithmetic expressions of the quasi 11 yr cycle, 110 yr century cycle of relative sunspot numbers, and quasi 22 yr cycle of solar magnetic field polarity. Based on a comparative analysis of the monthly average geopotential height, geopotential height anomaly, and temperature anomaly of the northern hemisphere at locations with an air pressure of 500 HPa during the positive and negative phases of AO (Arctic Oscillation), one can see that the abnormal warming period in the Arctic region corresponds to the negative phase of AO, while the anomalous cold period corresponds to its positive phase. This shows that the abnormal change in the Arctic region is an important factor in determining the anomalies of AO. In accordance with the analysis performed using the successive filtering method, one can see that the AO phenomenon occurring in January shows a clear quasi 88 yr century cycle and quasi 22 yr decadal cycle, which are closely related to solar activities. The results of our comparative analysis show that there is a close inverse relationship between the solar activities (especially the solar magnetic field index changes) and the changes in the 22 yr cycle of the AO occurring in January, and that the two trends are basically opposite of each other. That is to say, in most cases after the solar magnetic index MI rises from the lowest value, the solar magnetic field turns from north to south, and the high-energy particle flow entering the Earth's magnetosphere increases to heat the polar atmosphere, thus causing the AO to drop from the highest value; after the solar magnetic index MI drops from the highest value, the solar magnetic field turns from south to north, and the solar high-energy particle flow passes through the top of the Earth's magnetosphere rather than entering it to heat the polar atmosphere. Thus the polar temperature drops, causing the AO to rise from the lowest value. In summary, the variance contribution rate of the changes in the quasi 110 yr century cycle and quasi 22 yr decadal cycle for the AO reaches 62.9%, indicating that solar activity is an important driving factor of the AO.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

DATA ASSIMILATION APPROACH FOR FORECAST OF SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLES

Numerous attempts to predict future solar cycles are mostly based on empirical relations derived from observations of previous cycles, and they yield a wide range of predicted strengths and durations of the cycles. Results obtained with current dynamo models also deviate strongly from each other, thus raising questions about criteria to quantify the reliability of such predictions. The primary difficulties in modeling future solar activity are shortcomings of both the dynamo models and observations that do not allow us to determine the current and past states of the global solar magnetic structure and its dynamics. Data assimilation is a relatively new approach to develop physics-based predictions and estimate their uncertainties in situations where the physical properties of a system are not well-known. This paper presents an application of the ensemble Kalman filter method for modeling and prediction of solar cycles through use of a low-order nonlinear dynamo model that includes the essential physics and can describe general properties of the sunspot cycles. Despite the simplicity of this model, the data assimilation approach provides reasonable estimates for the strengths of future solar cycles. In particular, the prediction of Cycle 24 calculated and published in 2008 is so far holding up quite well. In this paper, I will present my first attempt to predict Cycle 25 using the data assimilation approach, and discuss the uncertainties of that prediction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

ON THE NON-KOLMOGOROV NATURE OF FLARE-PRODUCTIVE SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS

A magnetic power spectral analysis is performed on 53 solar active regions, observed from 2011 August to 2012 July. Magnetic field data obtained from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, inverted as Active Region Patches, are used to study the evolution of the magnetic power index as each region rotates across the solar disk. Active regions are classified based on the numbers and sizes of solar flares they produce in order to study the relationship between flare productivity and the magnetic power index. The choice of window size and inertial range plays a key role in determining the correct magnetic power index. The overall distribution of magnetic power indices has a range of 1.0–2.5. Flare-quiet regions peak at a value of 1.6. However, flare-productive regions peak at a value of 2.2. Overall, the histogram of the distribution of power indices of flare-productive active regions is well separated from flare-quiet active regions. Only 12% of flare-quiet regions exhibit an index greater than 2, whereas 90% of flare-productive regions exhibit an index greater than 2. Flare-quiet regions exhibit a high temporal variance (i.e., the index fluctuates between high and low values), whereas flare-productive regions maintain an index greater than 2 for several days. This shows the importance of including the temporal evolution of active regions in flare prediction studies, and highlights the potential of a 2–3 day prediction window for space weather applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

INVESTIGATION OF HELICITY AND ENERGY FLUX TRANSPORT IN THREE EMERGING SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS

We report the results of an investigation of helicity and energy flux transport from three emerging solar active regions (ARs). Using time sequence vector magnetic field observations obtained from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager, the velocity field of plasma flows is derived by the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms. In three cases, the magnetic fluxes evolve to pump net positive, negative, and mixed-sign helicity flux into the corona. The coronal helicity flux is dominantly coming from the shear term that is related to horizontal flux motions, whereas energy flux is dominantly contributed by the emergence term. The shear helicity flux has a phase delay of 5–14 hr with respect to absolute magnetic flux. The nonlinear curve of coronal energy versus relative helicity identifies the configuration of coronal magnetic fields, which is approximated by a fit of linear force-free fields. The nature of coronal helicity related to the particular pattern of evolving magnetic fluxes at the photosphere has implications for the generation mechanism of two kinds of observed activity in the ARs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

WHY IS THE GREAT SOLAR ACTIVE REGION 12192 FLARE-RICH BUT CME-POOR?

Solar active region (AR) 12192 of 2014 October hosts the largest sunspot group in 24 years. It is the most prolific flaring site of Cycle 24 so far, but surprisingly produced no coronal mass ejection (CME) from the core region during its disk passage. Here, we study the magnetic conditions that prevented eruption and the consequences that ensued. We find AR 12192 to be “big but mild”; its core region exhibits weaker non-potentiality, stronger overlying field, and smaller flare-related field changes compared to two other major flare-CME-productive ARs (11429 and 11158). These differences are present in the intensive-type indices (e.g., means) but generally not the extensive ones (e.g., totals). AR 12192's large amount of magnetic free energy does not translate into CME productivity. The unexpected behavior suggests that AR eruptiveness is limited by some relative measure of magnetic non-potentiality over the restriction of background field, and that confined flares may leave weaker photospheric and coronal imprints compared to their eruptive counterparts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Sustainable Buildings. Using Active Solar Power

The objective of this project is to promote awareness and knowledge of active solar energy technologies by installing and monitoring the following demonstration systems in Kentucky: 1) Pool heating system, Churchill Park School, 2) Water heating and daylighting systems, Middletown and Aiken Road Elementary Schools, 3) Photovoltaic street light comparison, Louisville Metro, 4) up to 25 domestic water heating systems across Kentucky. These tasks will be supported by outreach activities, including a solar energy installer training workshop and a Kentucky Solar Energy Conference.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scaler Rates from the Pierre Auger Observatory: A New Proxy of Solar Activity

The modulation of low-energy galactic cosmic rays reflects interplanetary magnetic field variations and can provide useful information on solar activity. An array of ground-surface detectors can reveal the secondary particles, which originate from the interaction of cosmic rays with the atmosphere. In this work, we present an investigation of the low-threshold rate (scaler) time series recorded in 16 yr of operation by the Pierre Auger Observatory surface detectors in Malargüe, Argentina. Through an advanced spectral analysis, we detected highly statistically significant variations in the time series with periods ranging from the decadal to the daily scale. We investigate their origin, revealing a direct connection with solar variability. Thanks to their intrinsic very low noise level, the Auger scalers allow a thorough and detailed investigation of the galactic cosmic-ray flux variations in the heliosphere at different timescales and can, therefore, be considered a new proxy of solar variability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

PATTERNS OF ACTIVITY IN A GLOBAL MODEL OF A SOLAR ACTIVE REGION

In this work we investigate the global activity patterns predicted from a model active region heated by distributions of nanoflares that have a range of frequencies. What differs is the average frequency of the distributions. The activity patterns are manifested in time lag maps of narrow-band instrument channel pairs. We combine hydrodynamic and forward modeling codes with a magnetic field extrapolation to create a model active region and apply the time lag method to synthetic observations. Our aim is not to reproduce a particular set of observations in detail, but to recover some typical properties and patterns observed in active regions. Our key findings are the following. (1) Cooling dominates the time lag signature and the time lags between the channel pairs are generally consistent with observed values. (2) Shorter coronal loops in the core cool more quickly than longer loops at the periphery. (3) All channel pairs show zero time lag when the line of sight passes through coronal loop footpoints. (4) There is strong evidence that plasma must be re-energized on a timescale comparable to the cooling timescale to reproduce the observed coronal activity, but it is likely that a relatively broad spectrum of heating frequencies are operating across active regions. (5) Due to their highly dynamic nature, we find nanoflare trains produce zero time lags along entire flux tubes in our model active region that are seen between the same channel pairs in observed active regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗