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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Workshop on Solar Activity, Solar Wind, Terrestrial Effects, and Solar Acceleration

A summary of the proceedings from the workshop are presented. The areas covered were solar activity, solar wind, terrestrial effects, and solar acceleration. Specific topics addressed include: (1) solar cycle manifestations, both large and small scale, as well as long-term and short-term changes, including transients such as flares; (2) sources of solar wind, as identified by interplanetary observations including coronal mass ejections (CME's) or x-ray bright points, and the theory for and evolution of large-scale and small-scale structures; (3) magnetosphere responses, as observed by spacecraft, to variable solar wind and transient energetic particle emissions; and (4) origin and propagation of solar cosmic rays as related to solar activity and terrestrial effects, and solar wind coronal-hole relationships and dynamics.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1965

Autocorrelation of solar activity.

Solar activity autocorrelation function R over time lags from 1 to 200 days measured at frequencies of 1000, 3750 and 9400 mc

AUTOCORRELATION↗
NASA NTRS2006

Solar Activity and Solar Eruptions

Our Sun is a dynamic, ever-changing star. In general, its atmosphere displays major variation on an 11-year cycle. Throughout the cycle, the atmosphere occasionally exhibits large, sudden outbursts of energy. These "solar eruptions" manifest themselves in the form of solar flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and energetic particle releases. They are of high interest to scientists both because they represent fundamental processes that occur in various astrophysical context, and because, if directed toward Earth, they can disrupt Earth-based systems and satellites. Research over the last few decades has shown that the source of the eruptions is localized regions of energy-storing magnetic field on the Sun that become destabilized, leading to a release of the stored energy. Solar scientists have (probably) unraveled the basic outline of what happens in these eruptions, but many details are still not understood. In recent years we have been studying what triggers these magnetic eruptions, using ground-based and satellite-based solar observations in combination with predictions from various theoretical models. We will present an overview of solar activity and solar eruptions, give results from some of our own research, and discuss questions that remain to be explored.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Electric-current Neutralization, Magnetic Shear, and Eruptive Activity in Solar Active Regions

The physical conditions that determine whether or not solar active regions (ARs) produce strong flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are not yet well understood. Here, we investigate the association between electric-current neutralization, magnetic shear along polarity inversion lines (PILs), and eruptive activity in four ARs: two emerging and two well-developed ones. We find that the CME-producing ARs are characterized by a strongly non-neutralized total current, while the total current in the ARs that did not produce CMEs is almost perfectly neutralized. The difference in the PIL shear between these two groups is much less pronounced, which suggests that the degree of current neutralization may serve as a better proxy for assessing the ability of ARs to produce CMEs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2007

Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets

A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty-eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (less than 10 deg. longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems.

Hung, Ching-Cheh↗
DOE OSTI2014

Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in different layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Effects of Low Activity Solar Cycle on Orbital Debris Lifetime

Long duration of low solar activity in the last solar minimum has an undesirable consequence of extending the lifetime of orbital debris. The AFRL TacSat-2 satellite decommissioned in 2008 has finally re-entered into the atmosphere on February 5th after more than one year overdue. Concerning its demise we have monitored its orbital decay and monthly forecasted Tacsat-2 re-entry since September 2010 by using the Orbital Element Prediction (OEP) model developed by the AFRL Orbital Drag Environment program. The model combines estimates of future solar activity with neutral density models, drag coefficient models, and an orbit propagator to predict satellite lifetime. We run the OEP model with solar indices forecast by the NASA Marshall Solar Activity Future Estimation model, and neutral density forecast by the MSIS-00 neutral density model. Based on the two line elements in 2010 up to mid September, we estimated at a 50% confidence level TacSat-2's re-entry time to be in early February 2011, which turned out to be in good agreement with Tacsat-2's actual re-entry date. The potential space weather effects of the coming low activity solar cycle on satellite lifetime and orbital debris population are examined. The NASA long-term orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of solar flux on the orbital debris population in the 200-600 km altitude environment. The results are discussed for developing satellite orbital drag application product.

Cable, Samual B.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Revisiting the question: Does high-latitude solar activity lead low-latitude solar activity in time phase?

Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are used to investigate whether high-latitude solar activity leads low-latitude solar activity in time phase or not, using the data of the Carte Synoptique solar filaments archive from 1919 March to 1989 December. From the cross-correlation analysis, high-latitude solar filaments have a time lead of 12 Carrington solar rotations with respect to low-latitude ones. Both the cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence indicate that high-latitude solar filaments lead low-latitude ones in time phase. Furthermore, low-latitude solar activity is better correlated with high-latitude solar activity of the previous cycle than with that of the following cycle, which is statistically significant. Thus, the present study confirms that high-latitude solar activity in the polar regions is indeed better correlated with the low-latitude solar activity of the following cycle than with that of the previous cycle, namely, leading in time phase.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2017

Building Reliable Forecasts of Solar Activity

Solar ionizing radiation critically depends on the level of the Sun’s magnetic activity. For robust physics-based forecasts, we employ the procedure of data assimilation, which combines theoretical modeling and observational data such that uncertainties in both the model and the observations are taken into account. Currently we are working in two major directions: 1) development of a new long-term forecast procedure on time-scales of the 11-year solar cycle, using a 2-dimensional mean-field dynamo model and synoptic magnetograms; 2) development of 3-dimensional radiative MHD (Magnetohydrodynamic) simulations to investigate the origin and precursors of local manifestations of magnetic activity, such as the formation of magnetic structures and eruptive dynamics.

Kitiashvili, Irina↗
NASA NTRS1989

The probability of SWF occurrence in relation to solar activity

Solar terrestrial researches have revealed substantial meaning of nonsteady events on the Sun, mainly solar flares, for the processes taking place in ionosphere. Solar flares result in the numerous consequences, account and prediction of which become necessary in our days. It is well known, that ionospheric disturbances following solar flares cause strong disturbances in the ionosphere, which severely violate radio systems (communication, navigation, etc.). Possibilities of sudden short wave fadeouts (SWF) prediction are considered.

Morozova, L. P.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Solar Activities Predictions: Long-Term Solar Activity

The need for long term solar activity predictions is addressed. The spatial organization of solar activity is described including applications for predictions, and ancient evidence for solar variability. Methods of predicting sunspot numbers are discussed. The inherent accuracy of the methods varies considerably, but a typical error bar 20%. The accuracy of sunspot cycle predictions is considered along with long term predictions of great solar events.

P S Mcintosh↗
NASA NTRS1981

Spectroscopy of the extreme ultraviolet dayglow during active solar conditions

The spectral characteristics of the mid-latitude daytime airglow observed between 530 and 1500 A under conditions of high solar activity are compared with those obtained at the same location during markedly lower solar activity. The spectral observations were made by two scanning spectrometers and an N2 3371 A photometer carried aboard Astrobee-F rockets launched from White Sands Missile Range, NM, on January 9, 1978 and June 27, 1980. The more recent data allow the partial resolution of the emission spectrum between 800 and 1200 A into a large number of weak N I, O I and N2 transitions. Data taken at 220 km altitude suggest an increase in atomic nitrogen density of more than a factor of 3 between the two observations, along with a doubling of the solar EUV flux at wavelengths less than 688 A. No evidence of a corresponding increase in the 10 to 50 eV photoelectron flux is found, however, an ionospheric sounding data indicate the peak electron density to have decreased during this period. The mechanism for this electron flux decrease in the face of increased EUV flux and only a three-fold increase in N concentration remains unknown.

Gentieu, E. P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The solar activity measurements experiments (SAMEX) for improved scientific understanding of solar activity

The Solar Activity Measurements Experiments (SAMEX) mission is described. It is designed to provide a look at the interactions of magnetic fields and plasmas that create flares and other explosive events on the sun in an effort to understand solar activity and the nature of the solar magnetic field. The need for this mission, the instruments to be used, and the expected benefits of SAMEX are discussed.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1985

The influence of nonstationarity of the solar activity and general solar field on modulation of cosmic rays

A numerical model of the propagation of galactic cosmic rays in interplanetary space was constructed for the case when the modulation depth determined by the level of solar activity changed in time. Also the contribution of particle drift in the regular field was calculated, and the agreement with experimental data concerning the ratio of protons and electrons in two solar activity minima is shown.

Zusmanovich, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Composite Mg II solar activity index for solar cycles 21 and 22

On the basis of version 1.0 of the composite MG II solar activity index data set, it is shown that the change in the 27-day running average of the Mg II index from solar maximum to solar minimum is about 8 percent for solar cycle 21 and about 9 percent for solar cycle 22 through January 1992. Scaling factors based on the short-term variations in the Mg II index and solar irradiance data sets are developed for each instrument to estimate solar variability at mid-UV and near-UV wavelengths. A set of composite scale factors are derived for use with the present composite MG index. Near 205 cm, where solar irradiance variations are important for stratospheric chemistry, the estimated change in irradiance during solar cycle 22 is about 10 +/- 1 percent using the composite Mg II index (version 1.0) and scale factors.

Deland, Matthew T.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Long-term persistence of solar activity

The solar irradiance has been found to change by 0.1% over the recent solar cycle. A change of irradiance of about 0.5% is required to effect the Earth's climate. How frequently can a variation of this size be expected? We examine the question of the persistence of non-periodic variations in solar activity. The Huerst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series (Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1969), is evaluated for the series of C-14 data for the time interval from about 6000 BC to 1950 AD (Stuiver and Pearson, 1986). We find a constant Huerst exponent, suggesting that solar activity in the frequency range of from 100 to 3000 years includes an important continuum component in addition to the well-known periodic variations. The value we calculate, H approximately equal to 0.8, is significantly larger than the value of 0.5 that would correspond to variations produced by a white-noise process. This value is in good agreement with the results for the monthly sunspot data reported elsewhere, indicating that the physics that produces the continuum is a correlated random process (Ruzmaikin et al., 1992), and that is is the same type of process over a wide range of time interval lengths. We conclude that the time period over which an irradiance change of 0.5% can be expected to occur is significantly shorter than that which would be expected for variations produced by a white-noise process.

Ruzmaikin, Alexander↗