Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Soil CO2 concentration”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

15 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Ecohydrological controls on root and microbial respiration in the East River watershed of Colorado

The main objective of this project was to conduct exploratory work to quantify how snow and rain water inputs influence the CO2 coming from the soil surface (soil CO2 flux), and its plant and microbial sources, in the East River watershed, near Crested Butte, Colorado. Knowledge gained from this effort laid the groundwork for a more comprehensive (ongoing) follow-on grant that is using a combination of experiments, field observations, machine learning and simulation modeling to fully disentangle these relationships. New field measurements were made at four locations along an elevational transect on Snodgrass Mountain at Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory. These sites were chosen to differ in total snowpack and water table depth, and included both deciduous (aspen) and evergreen (spruce/fir) forest types. We used automated measurements of soil CO2 concentrations to quantify the total soil CO2 flux, and the vertical CO2 production within the soil profile at each site. Isotope (radiocarbon, 14C) measurements determined how much of the CO2 emitted from the soil surface came from plant respiration (root metabolism) versus microbial respiration (decomposition of soil organic matter) sources. Supporting data on plant phenology and microbial dynamics provided context for the observed variation in respiration sources. This work was motivated by our overarching hypothesis that quantifying belowground plant and microbial processes separately, and how they are influenced by snow and rain inputs, is necessary for understanding and predicting how the East River watershed ecosystems will respond to future environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Raw soil carbon dioxide, moisture, temperature and micrometeorological data in the East River Watershed, Colorado June 2021-June 2024. (DE-SC0021139)

This dataset contains raw data from four tripod stations along an elevation gradient on Snodgrass Mountain in the East River Watershed, CO, USA. Each station contains a datalogger connected to 3 soil Carbon Dioxide CO2 gas probes, 3 soil temperature/moisture sensors and a micrometeorological station. Sensors are scanned every minute, and the 30 minute average is reported. The file snodgrass_soil_ESS.csv contains raw data, a row of column descriptors, and units of measurements. some data processing and QA/QC was done to filter out data from sensors that went bad and extreme outliers. CO2 sensors that went bad were replaced with new sensors as soon as possible. This research was performed to investigate the ecohydrological linkages of belowground carbon processes in the East River watershed forested communities to better understand how these ecosystems will respond to a changing cold-season moisture input. This is the second version of this data set and was modified on 10/01/2024. The primary change in the data was the addition of data from the fall of 2022 to June of 2024. In addition, minor QA/QC was done to filter out data from sensors that went bad and extreme outliers. THe filtered data are now NA's in this data frame and primarily the CO2 sensors. Limited to no QA/QC has been done on the other environmental data. This is now the third version of the data set, and was modified 03/25/2026. The primary change in the data was the addition of data from the June of 2024 to December 2025. Further r QA/QC was done with the new data to filter out bad data from faulty sensors and extreme outliers. The filtered data are now NA's in this data frame and primarily the CO2 sensors. Limited to no QA/QC has been done on the other environmental data. ##This additional data was funded under DE-SC0024218( Responses of Plant and Microbial Respiration Sources to Changing Cold Season Climate Drivers in the East River Watershed)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CO2 and CH4 leaf-level fluxes and soil porewater concentrations from common vegetation patches in Louisiana’s coastal wetlands

This dataset contains leaf-level flux and soil porewater concentration measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4 ) in plots in the footprint of Ameriflux sites US-LA2 and US-LA3. Leaf fluxes in US-LA2 were measured on patches dominated by Sagittaria lancifolia and co-dominated by Sagittaria lancifolia and Typha latifolia. In US-LA3, fluxes were measured from distinct Juncus roemerianus and Spartina alterniflora patches. The porewater concentrations were collected across a vertical profile (~50 cm depth) at centric locations within 25 m2 plots where we measured the leaf fluxes. US-LA3 included an additional set of measurements in open water spots. We aimed to evaluate differences in leaf fluxes and porewater pools of CO2 and CH4 of representative ecohydrological patches across a salinity gradient. We also used this dataset to help develop ELM-Wet, a more realistic representation of wetland carbon biogeochemical processes within the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model version 1 (ELM v.1). The files can be opened with regular text editors or spreadsheet programs. Version 2.0 (8/26/2025): This is the latest version of this dataset. The update includes additional samples of soil porewater CH4/CO2 concentrations from June-2021 to November-2022, as well as minor adjustments made to V1 samples via changing Henry's solubility to account for porewater salinity. Additionally leaf-level measurments of spectral indices, PSRI, NDVI, and PRI have been added to complement Leaf-level flux measurements. All V1 data sets have been integrated into V2 sheets, ensuring data from the previous version is contained with the additional samples and consistent with V2 metadata.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for Myers-Pigg et al. (2026), "Short-term coastal forest responses to a hurricane-scale freshwater and saltwater flooding experiment"

Coastal upland forests are exposed to intensifying precipitation regimes and sea level rise, increasing tree mortality and transforming these coastal forests into wetland ecosystems. Despite these well-known risks, the differing degrees to which hydrological, biogeochemical, and biological components of upland forests respond to novel salinity exposure is relatively unknown. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experiment decouples two distinct disturbances associated with hydrological extremes: (1) flooding from heavy precipitation and (2) exposure to saline conditions from storm surge. This dataset includes data reported in Myers-Pigg et al. (2025), which analyzed data from the first TEMPEST flooding treatment in 2022. This includes: - Colored dissolved organic matter in porewaters - Soil temperature and oxygen - Groundwater temperature and chemistry - Dissolved organic carbon concentrations in porewaters - Soil-to-atmosphere CH4 and CO2 fluxes - Soil temperature, water content, and electrical conductivity - Root-influenced CH4 and CO2 flux - Tree sap flow velocity - The R analytical code and documentation about the computational environmental in which it was run (the "sessionInfo.txt" file) All data files are plain-text comma separated value (CSV) and no special software is required to read them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

2D reactive transport model of shale chemical weathering and biogeochemical fluxes along a mountainous hillslope, East River Watershed, Colorado: Input files and simulation results

This data package contains input files and simulation results for a two-dimensional (2D) reactive transport model used to quantitatively analyze the coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes governing shale weathering and associated biogeochemical fluxes under realistic environmental conditions in the high-elevation East River Watershed. These data support the conclusions presented in Stolze et al. (Water Resources Research, under review), "Model-based interpretation of solute exports and carbon partitioning during shale weathering in a mountainous hillslope". The model simulates atmospheric-subsurface gas exchange, subsurface water flow, and shale weathering processes under dynamic, year-scale conditions along a shale-underlain hillslope located in the East River watershed. The simulations were performed using the PFLOTRAN flow and reactive transport code and executed on the Perlmutter supercomputer to leverage its large-scale parallel computing capabilities. The data package contains two zipped folders, "model_input_files" and "simulation_results", and one readme.txt file. "model_input_files" contains the necessary input files to run the calibrated base-base model presented in Stolze et al. (Water Resources Research, under review). "simulation_results" contains a single hdf5 file ("Output_2D_hillslope_model.h5") which includes the results of simulation performed using the base-case model. This file can be opened with HDFView 3.1.4, Python, or MATLAB. "readme.txt" contains relevant information about the base-case model and provides guidelines on how to run the associated input files provided in the folder "model_input_files". Furthermore, readme.txt provides information regarding the model results provided in "Output_2D_hillslope_model.h5" such as matrix dimensionality and output units. Field datasets used to evaluate model performance were collected at three monitoring wells located along a hillslope transect (PLM1, PLM2, and PLM3). Dissolved ion concentration data were collected from November 2016 to October 2021 for Ca, Mg, DIC, Na, K, SO4 (Dong et al., 2025 - dic_npoc_data_2014_2024.zip - DOI:10.15485/1660459; Williams et al., 2025 - anion_data_2014_2024.zip - DOI:10.15485/1668054; Dong et al., 2025 - cation_data_2014_2024.zip - DOI:10.15485/1668055). Note that we used the files named er_PLM1_xx_yy, er_PLM2_xx_yy, and er_PLM3_xx_yy where xx stands for the name of the aqueous species and yy stands for the depth where the measurements were performed. Soil water content ([0 - 1] m) and water table depth were collected from November 2016 to October 2021 (Wan et al., 2024 - Dynamic_water_table__depthsFig2b.csv and Soil_water_content_Fig4e.csv - DOI:10.15485/2322567). Gaseous CO2 concentration were collected from October 2020 to December 2021(Wan et al., 2024 - Soil_CO2_concentrations_Fig4h.csv - DOI:10.15485/2322567) Gaseous CO2 flux from the subsurface to the atmosphere were collected in the vicinity of PLM2 from October 2019 to May 2022 (Wu et al., 2025). Soil microbial biomass concentration was measured from August 2016 to June 2017 (Sorensen et al., 2019 - 2017_East_River_Pumphouse_Microbial_Biomass__1_.csv - DOI:10.15485/1577267) All field data are published as CSV files compatible with Microsoft Excel, MATLAB, and Python, or as text files. The coordinates of the monitoring wells and the CO2(g) flux sensor in the coordinate system WGS84 are: -PLM1: [38.9197710 ; -106.9492750] -PLM2: [38.9201580 ; -106.9487170] -PLM3: [38.9207843 ; -106.9483668] -PLM4: 38.9210060 ; -106.9479528] -CO2(g) flux sensor: [38.9199180 ; -106.9489906] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. This research used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), a Department of Energy User Facility using NERSC award BER-ERCAP 23980, BER-ERCAP 28550, and BER-ERCAP 33789.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

NCAR/EOL ISFS Data for LASSO-CACTI Overview Paper

5 minute averages of surface meteorology and flux data collected by the NCAR/EOL Integrated Surface Flux System (ISFS) at 15 sites during the RELAMPAGO field campaign. These data have been quality-controlled and are available in NetCDF format. Winds reported by the sonic anemometers have been tilt corrected and rotated into geographic coordinates. Data providence, citation, and acknowledgement This ARM data set is a copy of v2.0 of the NCAR data set obtained on 6-Jun-2024 from https://doi.org/10.26023/ZPHJ-JW9W-2B0Y. The citation for the original data source is: NCAR/EOL In-situ Sensing Facility, Oncley, S. 2021. NCAR/EOL ISFS Surface Meteorology and Flux Products, 5-minute. Version 2.0. UCAR/NCAR - Earth Observing Laboratory. https://doi.org/10.26023/ZPHJ-JW9W-2B0Y Accessed 06 Jun 2024. In addition to the citation reference and any other acknowledgements, please acknowledge NCAR/EOL in your publications with text such as: "Data provided by NCAR/EOL under the sponsorship of the National Science Foundation. https://data.eol.ucar.edu/"

atmosphere: surface↗
DOE OSTI2025

CO2 Profiling System for CO2 Storage (a1-level)

The Southern Great Plains (SGP) carbon dioxide flux (CO2FLUX) measurement systems provide half-hour average fluxes of CO2, H2O (latent heat), sensible heat, and momentum. The systems use the eddy covariance technique, which computes the fluxes from the vertical wind speed in combination with the concentrations of CO2 and H2O, temperature, and horizontal wind speed, respectively. A 3D sonic anemometer obtains the wind components and the temperature, while an infrared gas analyzer measures CO2 and H2O. A sub-system also measures half-hour averages of radiation, meteorological, and soil measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Patch-level CO2 and CH4 fluxes and porewater concentrations in experimental wetlands, 5 and 10 PPT saltwater intrusion simulations, Louisiana 2023-2024

This dataset containes carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) flux measurements collected from wetland vegetation patches dominated by Typha domingensis and Panicum hemitomon to assess greenhouse gas flux responses to experimental saltwater intrusion (SWI) pulses. Measurements were conducted before, during, and after simulated SWI events at target salinities of approximately 5 parts per thousand (ppt) with durations of 6, 10, and 17 days and 10 ppt with a duration of 48 days, alongside a control wetland (with no salinity added, flood manipulation only). These data were generated to evaluate how the magnitude and duration of SWI alter wetland carbon exchange and related biogeochemical and plant responses. This data package includes flux measurements from the wetland surface (i.e, soil/water surface and enclosed vegetation) and from the soil/water surface only; porewater and surface water concentrations of CO2 and CH4; salinity, pH, electrical conductivity collected in porewater (at 5, 10, and 20 cm soil depths) and in surface water; soil redox potential; leaf spectral indices, leaf vapor pressure deficit, stomatal conductance; water level, salinity, and photosynthetically active radiation; and aboveground biomass.

EARTH SCIENCE > AGRICULTURE > SOILS > SOIL RESPIRA↗
DOE OSTI2026

Meteorological and Soil Data from Ecohydrology Sensor Towers at Pump House and Snodgrass Mountain in East River Watershed, Colorado, 2019-2025

This data package includes hourly meteorological and soil sensor data at eight ecohydrology monitoring sites in East River Watershed, Colorado as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (WFSFA) research led by Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL). Four field sites were located on the hillslope of East River (ER) near Pump House (PH) at Mount Crested Butte (ER-PHS1 to 4), and the other four are in the Snodgrass Mountain (SG) area (SG-EHS5 to 8). In terms of vegetation cover, three sites are in montane grasslands (ER-PHS1, ER-PHS2, and SG-EHS5), three are below evergreen conifer canopy (ER-PHS3, SG-EHS6, and SG-EHS7), and two are below deciduous aspen canopy (ER-PHS4 and SG-EHS8). The monitoring period began in October 2019 at the East River sites, in October 2020 at SG-EHS5 and SG-EHS6, and in October 2021 at SG-EHS7 and SG-EHS8. In September 2024, all four East River sites were fully retired. The four Snodgrass Mountain sites remain active. Each site is equipped with a comprehensive suite of meteorological sensors on a tripod and soil sensors that measure weather, energy fluxes, and soil variables. This data package includes measurements from ten different types of sensors and up to thirteen individual sensors per site, including (1) a weather station (measurement height ranges from 2.8~3.8 meters (m) above ground), (2) a quantum sensor for photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) (2.4~3.3m), (3) a net radiometer (1.7~2.1m), (4) an infrared radiometer (1.6~2.2m), (5) a sonic distance sensor (1.5~1.9m), (6) a soil carbon dioxide (CO2) flux chamber (0m), (7) a soil heat flux plate (-0.05m below ground), (8) a soil oxygen sensor (-0.3m), (9) a soil water potential sensor (-0.3m), and (10) soil water content sensors at 3~4 depths (-1.15 ~ -0.1m). A total of twenty-three variables is reported in this data package, including (1) atmospheric variables: air temperature (TA), atmospheric pressure (PA), vapor pressure (VP), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), (2) precipitation variables: rain precipitation (P) and snow depth (D_SNOW), (3) energy fluxes variables: four-component net radiation (NETRAD) (shortwave/longwave incoming/outgoing radiation, SW_IN, SW_OUT, LW_IN, LW_OUT), photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD), and soil heat flux (G), (4) soil variables: soil water content (SWC), soil water potential (SWP), soil temperature (TS), soil bulk electrical conductivity (COND_SOIL), and soil gaseous oxygen concentration (O2_SOIL), (5) wind variables: two-dimensional wind speed (WS), gust speed (WS_MAX), and wind direction (WD), and (6) surface variables: surface infrared temperature (T_CANOPY) and soil CO2 flux (CO2_SOIL). Please see the Methods section for data processing and QA/QC steps taken to generate the hourly datasets. The following files are included in this data package (notes on version: v{x}-{y}, where x is the metadata version, and y is the data version, when applicable): (1) “metadata_site_v{x}-{y}.csv” - a site metadata file that summarizes location information of all sites, including site ID, description, coordinates, timeframe, elevation, and vegetation cover, (2) “metadata_instrument_v{x}-{y}.csv” - an instrument metadata file that summarizes sensor information of all sites, including sensor manufacturer and model, measurement height, and sampling and averaging interval of all variables, (3) "data_{SITE_ID}_v{x}-{y}.csv" - eight data files that contain hourly data of each site indicated by {SITE_ID} in the filename, (4) “/figure/data_{SITE_ID}_v{x}-{y}.png" - eight figures that help visualize data of each site indicated by {SITE_ID} in the filename, (5) “/photo/*” - photos of each site indicated by {SITE_ID} in the filename, and (6) four file level metadata (flmd.csv) and data dictionary (*_dd.csv) files that summarize file, header, column, and variable information of all files. Notes: (1) Measurement height: Each variable name is followed by conventional positional qualifiers “H_V_R”, where H indicates the relative horizontal positions of that specific variable, V the vertical positions, and R the replicates. In this data package, only the vertical qualifier V varies, and V increases from the highest vertical position (V=1) to the lowest. Variables with the same qualifier are not necessarily measured by the same sensor, and the same variable with the same qualifier across different sites are not necessarily measured at the same height. Please refer to “metadata_instrument.csv” for the sensor information and measurement heights, and whether a variable is measured below the canopy. (2) Variable availability: Snow depth is not available at ER-PHS3 and SG-EHS7. SWC, soil temperature, and soil bulk EC at the deepest depth (<-1m) are not available at SG-EHS6 and SG-EHS7. The missing value code for numeric variables is -9999, except for SWP. For SWP, the missing value code is +9999, because SWP values are negative. (3) Sampling frequency: Please refer to “metadata_instrument.csv” for the increase of sampling frequency of some variables from 30-min to 1-min at ER-PHS1 to 4 in July 2020. (4) Sensors: While the methods of each sensor are not detailed, all sensors are commercially available, and their methods can be found in their manuals. Please refer to “metadata_instrument.csv” for the sensor manufacturer and model information. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

COMPASS-FME Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) Soil Greenhouse Gas Fluxes 04/2020-06/2024

Both raw and processed data measured using a LI-COR 7810 Greenhouse Gas Analyzer in the TEMPEST experiment, part of COMPASS-FME (https://compass.pnnl.gov/FME/COMPASSFME), at Smithsonian Environmental Research Center. This ecosystem-scale experiment probes the effects of saltwater versus freshwater flooding in a coastal deciduous forest.The data consist of both concentrations and fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane measured using static chambers on the soil surface, approximately every two weeks from early 2020 to mid 2024. Some of the measurement points are controls, and some subject to root-exclusion techniques; all measurements are embedded in the TEMPEST control, freshwater, and saltwater plots (see Hopple et al. 2023). These data were generated to understand changing soil greenhouse gas (CO2 and CH4) production and consumption. File types are comma-separated value (.csv) for data, and markdown (.md) for supplementary information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

1H-NMR characterization of soil dissolved organic matter from soil samples in control and warming plots in Blodgett Forest, CA (2014 and 2018)

The pathways of carbon transport and loss through and from soils—soil organic matter (SOM) depolymerization to dissolved organic carbon and mineralization to carbon dioxide (CO2)—are fundamentally driven by microbial activity, which is strongly regulated by environmental conditions. As part of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area (SFA), we have established a novel whole-soil long-term warming experiment at the University of California (UC) Blodgett Forest Research Station (Sierra Nevada) in 2014, where we study the role of biogeochemical, microbial and geochemical process interactions in SOM (soil organic matter) decomposition and stabilization. This package contains metabolite data obtained through 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy on water-extracted soils. Soil samples were collected in 2014/06/03 and 2018/06/04 from 3 replicated paired plots that had been subjected to experimental warming since June 2014 to simulate a predicted climate change scenario for northern California. The following files are included: (1) nmr_h2o_data_raw.csv: raw data, (2) nmr_h2o_data_processed.csv: computed compound concentrations and metadata, (3) nmr_h2o_compound_metadata.csv: compound metadata, (4) nmr_h2o_sample_metadata.csv: sample metadata

1H-NMR (nucleic magnetic resonance) spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate-induced shifts in sulfate dynamics regulate anaerobic methane oxidation in a coastal wetland

Anaerobic methane oxidation (AMO) is a key microbial pathway that mitigates methane emissions in coastal wetlands, but the response of AMO to changing global climate remains poorly understood. Here, we assessed the response of AMO to climate change in a brackish coastal wetland using a 5-year field manipulation of warming and elevated carbon dioxide ( e CO 2 ). Sulfate (SO 4 2− )–dependent AMO (S-DAMO) was the predominant AMO process at our study site due to tidal inputs of SO 4 2− . However, SO 4 2− dynamics responded differently to the treatments; warming reduced SO 4 2− concentration by enhancing SO 4 2− reduction, while eCO 2 increased SO 4 2− concentration by enhancing SO 4 2− regeneration. S-DAMO rates mirrored these trends, with warming decreasing S-DAMO rates and e CO 2 stimulating them. These findings underscore the potential of climate change to alter soil AMO activities through changing SO 4 2− dynamics, highlighting the need to incorporate these processes in predictive models for more accurate representations of coastal wetland methane dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

SPRUCE Redox-Active Subsurface Organic Matter, Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota, 2023

This dataset contains measurements that report on the effects of the SPRUCE experimental treatments on redox-active organic matter (RAOM) reduction (Valenzuela and Cervantes, 2021). Measurements occurred at the SPRUCE Experiment site in the Marcell Experimental Forest in northern Minnesota, USA. This work is also a follow-up to Rush et al. (2021a) which investigated effects of temperature on RAOM reduction after two years of experimental warming (Rush et al. 2021b). This follow-up dataset addresses two main questions; (i) How does warming and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) directly affect in situ RAOM reduction, and subsequent methane (CH4) and CO2 production, across the peat depth profile? and (ii) How has long-term warming and elevated CO2 changed the total RAOM pool, and subsequent CH4 and CO2 production, across the peat depth profile? This dataset reports electron shuttling capacity (a proxy for RAOM reduction; Keller, and Takagi, 2013) and carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) concentrations both in one-week in situ incubations (2023-05-31 to 2023-08-01) and 42-day laboratory incubations from peat collected in 2023 (2023-05-31 to 2023-06-26). Laboratory incubations also measured acetate concentrations. The 2023 laboratory incubations were also compared with laboratory incubations conducted on peat collected in 2016 (Rush et al. 2021b). This dataset contains three data files in comma-separate (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: three data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Role of Forest Carbon Change in Shaping Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Global change, particularly the changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climatic variables, and nitrogen deposition, has been widely recognized and examined to have worldwide impacts on forest carbon. However, its influence on forest area required to meet the demand for timber and carbon storage and subsequent land use and land cover change (LULCC) is rarely studied. This study explores the role of global change-driven forest carbon change in shaping future global LULCC projections and investigates underlying drivers. We incorporated the global change impacts on forest carbon from the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles model simulations (driven by meteorological forcing projections from two Earth system models [ESMs]) into the Global Change Analysis Model, under three combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Including forest carbon change decreases the projected expansion of managed forest and managed pasture, reduces the loss of unmanaged pastures and forests, and provides more cropland. The relative change in managed forest by 2100 is -4.0%, -21.7%, and -31.9%, under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, when forest carbon change is considered. CO 2 fertilization is the dominant driver, increasing forest vegetation and soil carbon by 37% and 4.1%, and leading to 78.6% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585. In comparison, climate change reduces forest vegetation and soil carbon by -3.5% and -0.8%, influencing 23.9% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585, while nitrogen deposition has minor impacts. Using meteorological forcing data from two ESMs leads to similar impacts of forest carbon change on LULCC in terms of sign and trend but different magnitudes. This study highlights the large impact of forest carbon change on shaping future LULCC dynamics and the critical role of CO 2 fertilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Methane Budget 2000–2020

Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. CH4 is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2), and both emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CH4 have continued to increase since 2007 after a temporary pause. The relative importance of CH4 emissions compared to those of CO2 for temperature change is related to its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger radiative effect, and acceleration in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in quantifying the factors responsible for the observed atmospheric growth rate arise from diverse, geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the uncertain magnitude and temporal change in the destruction of CH4 by short-lived and highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to improve, synthesise, and update the global CH4 budget regularly and to stimulate new research on the methane cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), we present here the third version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal CH4 budget, integrating results of top-down CH4 emission estimates (based on in situ and Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations and an ensemble of atmospheric inverse-model results) and bottom-up estimates (based on process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). We present a budget for the most recent 2010–2019 calendar decade (the latest period for which full data sets are available), for the previous decade of 2000–2009 and for the year 2020. The revision of the bottom-up budget in this 2025 edition benefits from important progress in estimating inland freshwater emissions, with better counting of emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. This budget also reduces double counting across freshwater and wetland emissions and, for the first time, includes an estimate of the potential double counting that may exist (average of 23 Tg CH4 yr−1). Bottom-up approaches show that the combined wetland and inland freshwater emissions average 248 [159–369] Tg CH4 yr−1 for the 2010–2019 decade. Natural fluxes are perturbed by human activities through climate, eutrophication, and land use. In this budget, we also estimate, for the first time, this anthropogenic component contributing to wetland and inland freshwater emissions. Newly available gridded products also allowed us to derive an almost complete latitudinal and regional budget based on bottom-up approaches. For the 2010–2019 decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down) to be 575 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 553–586, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this amount, 369 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 65 % is attributed to direct anthropogenic sources in the fossil, agriculture, and waste and anthropogenic biomass burning (range 350–391 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 63 %–68 %). For the 2000–2009 period, the atmospheric inversions give a slightly lower total emission than for 2010–2019, by 32 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 9–40). The 2020 emission rate is the highest of the period and reaches 608 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 581–627), which is 12 % higher than the average emissions in the 2000s. Since 2012, global direct anthropogenic CH4 emission trends have been tracking scenarios that assume no or minimal climate mitigation policies proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (shared socio-economic pathways SSP5 and SSP3). Bottom-up methods suggest 16 % (94 Tg CH4 yr−1) larger global emissions (669 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 512–849) than top-down inversion methods for the 2010–2019 period. The discrepancy between the bottom-up and the top-down budgets has been greatly reduced compared to the previous differences (167 and 156 Tg CH4 yr−1 in Saunois et al. (2016, 2020) respectively), and for the first time uncertainties in bottom-up and top-down budgets overlap. Although differences have been reduced between inversions and bottom-up, the most important source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget is still attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and inland freshwaters. The tropospheric loss of methane, as the main contributor to methane lifetime, has been estimated at 563 [510–663] Tg CH4 yr−1 based on chemistry–climate models. These values are slightly larger than for 2000–2009 due to the impact of the rise in atmospheric methane and remaining large uncertainty (∼ 25 %). The total sink of CH4 is estimated at 633 [507–796] Tg CH4 yr−1 by the bottom-up approaches and at 554 [550–567] Tg CH4 yr−1 by top-down approaches. However, most of the top-down models use the same OH distribution, which introduces less uncertainty to the global budget than is likely justified. For 2010–2019, agriculture and waste contributed an estimated 228 [213–242] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 211 [195–231] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. Fossil fuel emissions contributed 115 [100–124] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 120 [117–125] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. Biomass and biofuel burning contributed 27 [26–27] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 28 [21–39] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. We identify five major priorities for improving the CH4 budget: (i) producing a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting CH4 based on a robust classification of different types of emitting ecosystems; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of CH4 observations at local (e.g. FLUXNET-CH4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, satellite imagery with pointing capabilities) to regional scales (surface networks and global remote sensing measurements from satellites) to constrain both bottom-up models and atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) integration of 3D variational inversion systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane as well as information in the bottom-up inventories on anthropogenic super-emitters detected by remote sensing (mainly oil and gas sector but also coal, agriculture, and landfills) to improve source partitioning. The data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GKQ9-2RHT (Martinez et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗