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At least 19 records

Interannual variability versus seasonal variability in the tropical Atlantic

Monthly fields of sea surface temperature and wind stress for the tropical Atlantic are constructed for January 1964 to December 1979. Inside the Gulf of Guinea the amplitude of the seasonal variability of SST ranges between 2.5 and 4 times greater than the interannual variability. In the remainder of the equatorial Atlantic this measure is less than 2. Standard deviations of wind stress anomalies indicate that, except near the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the magnitude of interannual fluctuations is greater than that of seasonal ones. The joint analyses of these SST and wind stress fields indicate the largest positive SST anomaly in the Gulf of Guinea (July, 1968) was immediately preceded by the only reversal of the trade winds west along the equator.

Picaut, J.

Technical Note: On Seasonal Variability of the M2 Tide

Seasonal variability of the M2 ocean tide can be detected at many ports, perhaps most. Examination of the cluster of tidal constituents residing within the M2 tidal group can shed light on the physical mechanisms underlying seasonality. In the broadest terms these are astronomical, frictional–advective interactions, and climate processes; some induce annual modulations and some semiannual, in amplitude, phase, or both. This note reviews how this occurs and gives an example from each broad category. Phase conventions and their relationship with causal mechanisms, as well as nomenclature, are also addressed.

Richard D Ray

Modeling the seasonal variability of a coupled Arctic ice-ocean system

The seasonal variability of the ice-ocean system in the Arctic Basin and the Norwegian, Greenland, and Barents Seas was modeled using a three-dimensional coupled ice-ocean model developed at Princeton University. The snow-ice model uses a three-level thermodynamic scheme similar to Semtner's (1976), but is extended to include the effect of leads. It is shown that simulations using the climatological monthly forcing fields produce a realistic seasonal variability of the ice cover. The ice thickness had a considerable sensitivity to the choice of the long-wave back radiation scheme, but these effects can be reduced through dynamical factors.

Hakkinen, Sirpa

Seasonal Variability of Saturn's Atmosphere

The seasonal variability of Saturn's clouds and weather layer, currently displaying a variety of phenomena (convective storms, planetary waves, giant storms and lightning-induced events, etc.) is not yet fully understood. Variations of Saturn's radiance at 5.2 microns, a spectral region dominated by thermal emission in an atmospheric window containing weak gaseous absorption, contain a strong axisymmetric component as well as large discrete features at low and mid-latitudes that are several degrees colder than the planetary average and uncorrelated with features at shorter wavelengths that are dominated by reflected sunlight (Yanamandra-Fisher et al., 2001. Icarus, Vol. 150). The characterization of several fundamental atmospheric properties and processes, however, remains incomplete, namely: How do seasons affect (a) the global distribution of gaseous constituents and aerosols; and (b) temperatures and the stability against convection and large scale-atmospheric transport? Do 5-micron clouds have counterparts at other altitude levels? What changes occur during the emergence of Great White Storms? Data acquired at the NASA/IRTF and NAOJ/Subaru from 1995 - 2011; since 2004, high-resolution multi-spectral and high-spatial imaging data acquired by the NASA/ESA Cassini mission, represents half a Saturnian year or two seasons. With the addition of detailed multi-spectral data sets acquired by amateur observers, we study these dramatic phenomena to better understand the timeline of the evolution of these events. Seasonal (or temporal) trends in the observables such as albedo of the clouds, thermal fields of the atmosphere as function of altitude, development of clouds, hazes and global abundances of various hydrocarbons in the atmosphere can now be modeled. We will present results of our ongoing investigation for the search and characterization of periodicities over half a Saturnian year, based on a non-biased a priori approach and time series techniques (such as Principal Component Analysis, PCA and Lomb-Scargle periodograms, LSP).

Yanamandra-Fisher, Padma A.

Seasonal variability of the Gulf Stream from satellite altimetry

The nearly continuous 3.5 years of altimeter data in the western North Atlantic Ocean from the GEOS 3 mission (April 1975 to November 1978) have been used to study the seasonal variability of the Gulf Stream. The differences between altimetric measurements of sea surface height made at satellite ground track intersections, called crossovers, are utilized to construct time series of sea level variations. The results indicate that the Gulf Stream in the region off Cape Hatteras has a pronounced seasonal variability. The peak-to-peak amplitude of the seasonal cycle in terms of cross-stream sea level difference is about 15 cm, with a maximum in April and a minimum in December. The result is in good agreement with historic hydrographic observations and recent direct measurements of the Gulf Stream. The mechanisms responsible for the observed seasonal variability are discussed.

Fu, Lee-Lueng

Tracking seasonal variability in plant traits from spaceborne PRISMA and NEON AOP across forest types and ecoregions

Plant traits serve as critical indicators of how plants adapt to environmental changes and influence ecosystem functions. While airborne hyperspectral remote sensing effectively maps plant traits through detailed reflectance properties, it is limited by cost and scale, making large-scale and temporal studies challenging. The recently launched spaceborne hyperspectral imager, PRecursore IperSpettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA), offers frequent, large scale and high-fidelity observations on a spatial resolution of 30 m and a revisit time of around 29 days, making it suitable for large-scale seasonal trait mapping. However, their potential remains largely unexplored. This study developed a multi-stage framework by leveraging the PRISMA spaceborne hyperspectral data and National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) hyperspectral data to investigate the seasonal dynamics of four key plant traits — chlorophyll content, carotenoid content, equivalent water thickness, and nitrogen content — across eleven NEON sites representing diverse forest types and ecoregions in the contiguous U.S. Our results demonstrated that PRISMA hyperspectral data can reliably track seasonal variability in plant traits, achieving overall R 2 values ranging from 0.78 to 0.88 and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) values ranging from 5.4% to 8.4% for the four traits. Seasonal patterns revealed bell-shaped trajectories for chlorophyll and carotenoids, while equivalent water thickness decreased steadily across most sites, driven by structural changes during leaf maturation and senescence. Nitrogen content exhibited less pronounced seasonal variation but followed expected nutrient resorption patterns. Analysis of environmental drivers showed that seasonal variability is primarily controlled by solar radiation and day length in northern sites, vapor pressure in semi-arid regions, and temperature in mid-southeastern sites. Spatial variability, meanwhile, was primarily driven by soil properties, particularly during the peak growing season. However, the influence of soil variables slightly declines toward the end of the season at several sites, as climatic factors become more prominent. This study highlights the capability of PRISMA, and potentially other similar spaceborne hyperspectral data for large-scale, time-series plant trait mapping and provides valuable insights into the interactions between plant traits and environmental factors. In conclusion, these findings contribute to advancing our understanding of plant functional ecology and improving predictions of ecosystem responses to environmental changes.

Environmental drivers

Seasonal variability of bio-optical and physical properties in the Sargasso Sea

The seasonal variability of bio-optical and physical properties within the upper ocean at a site in the Sargasso Sea has been observed in multivariable moored systems during a 9-month period. In addition, complementary meteorological data, sea surface height and sea surface temperature maps, and expendable bathythermograph and shipboard profile data have been utilized for interpretation. The observations during March are characteristic of late wintertime conditions of a deep isothermal layer, but with intervening periods of warming due to the advection of warm outbreak waters associated with Gulf Stream meanders. The mixed layer depth shoals from greater than 160 m to about 25 m in late March (spring transition). Phytoplankton blooms follow the mixed layer shoaling. A succession of phytoplankton populations occurs during this transitional interval. The mixed layer remains near 25 m for the summer and deepens in mid-September. A relatively intense subsurface maximum in chlorophyll develops at about 75 m following the spring transition. The maximum persists, but weakens in mid-summer.

Dickey, T.

Investigation of seasonal variability of the wind stress curl over the North Atlantic Ocean by means of empirical orthogonal function analysis

The seasonal variability of the wind stress curl over the North Atlantic is investigated by means of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The curl field is calculated from 1 year of First Global GARP Experiment wind data. It was found that 44 percent of the variability is contained in four significant eigenvectors. Their spatial patterns are characterized by basin-sized oscillations with larger amplitude to the north of 40 deg N. Their associated time series coefficients have the highest amplitude during the winter and show a tendency toward a white frequency spectrum which nevertheless exhibits noticeable peaks or gaps at certain frequencies. Physically, the first EOF is seen as the seasonal fluctuations of the mean wind stress curl pattern. Five other eigenvectors are also found to be above the noise level, but they account for only a smaller percentage of variability (19 percent). They are characterized by smaller spatial scales than the basin size. Their time series coefficients show a whiter frequency spectrum.

Barnier, B.

Observation of Trace Gases Seasonal Variability in the Marine Boundary Layer over the Atlantic Ocean during the ACTIVATE Field Campaign

High resolution in-situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and water vapor (H2O) were made onboard the NASA HU-25 aircraft during the ACTIVATE (Aerosol Cloud meteorology Interactions oVer the western Atlantic Experiment) campaign during 2020 and 2021 in different seasons (winter through summer) over the mid-latitude western Atlantic Ocean. As most of the flights focused on the marine boundary layer (MBL) during the campaign, these trace gas observations are an excellent data set to examine seasonal variability of trace gas background values in the MBL without the influence of localized point sources. We will describe the variability of these trace gases in the MBL background by filtering out concentrated point sources using back trajectory analysis along with trace gas ratios. Additionally, the ocean is a significant sink of anthropogenic CO2 capturing about one quarter of total anthropogenic carbon. By looking at the MBL CO2 variation as a function of season, we discuss observed changes in CO2 uptake over the ocean. These high accuracy observations of trace gas backgrounds in the MBL along with characterizing seasonal effects on oceanic sequestering of anthropogenic CO2 will improve the understanding of seasonal variations and change in climate and inverse modelling over the ocean.

Yonghoon Choi

Interannual and Seasonal Variability of the Tropopause Layer over the Tropical Americas

This study explores the thermodynamic and convective characteristics of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) over the Tropical Americas using multi-platform measurements collected during the last five years. This region is chosen for the following reasons: (i) it becomes the second most dominant source of air to the TTL, (ii) it exhibits the largest seasonal increase in percent contribution to stratospheric moisture, (iii) it has the warmest tropical tropopause temperatures, and (iv) it can be influenced by midlatitude and subtropical air masses that are transported equatorward by the upper-level circulation associated with the North American Monsoon. We examine the interannual and seasonal variability of water vapor, ozone, and temperature using aircraft data collected aboard the WB-57, satellite data from the Aura-MLS and Aqua-AIRS instruments, and GPS radio occultation measurements from the CHAMP satellite. We also examine the vertical extent and frequency of convection in the region using data from TRMM. In addition, we perform seasonal trajectory calculations to elucidate the origin and fate of air masses found in our region of interest.

Pittman, Jasna V.

Forced and Free Intra-Seasonal Variability Over the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by 10 AGCMs

This study examines intra-seasonal (20-70 day) variability in the South Asian monsoon region during 1997/98 in ensembles of 10 simulations with 10 different atmospheric general circulation models. The 10 ensemble members for each model are forced with the same observed weekly sea surface temperature (SST) but differ from each other in that they are started from different initial atmospheric conditions. The results show considerable differences between the models in the simulated 20-70 day variability, ranging from much weaker to much stronger than the observed. A key result is that the models do produce, to varying degrees, a response to the imposed weekly SST. The forced variability tends to be largest in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans where, for some models, it accounts for more than 1/4 of the 20-70 day intra-seasonal variability in the upper level velocity potential during these two years. A case study of a strong observed MJO (intraseasonal oscillation) event shows that the models produce an ensemble mean eastward propagating signal in the tropical precipitation field over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, similar to that found in the observations. The associated forced 200 mb velocity potential anomalies are strongly phase locked with the precipitation anomalies, propagating slowly to the east (about 5 m/s) with a local zonal wave number two pattern that is generally consistent with the developing observed MJO. The simulated and observed events are, however, approximately in quadrature, with the simulated response 2 leading by 5-10 days. The phase lag occurs because, in the observations, the positive SST anomalies develop upstream of the main convective center in the subsidence region of the MJO, while in the simulations, the forced component is in phase with the SST. For all the models examined here, the intraseasonal variability is dominated by the free (intra-ensemble) component. The results of our case study show that the free variability has a predominately zonal wave number one pattern, and has propagation speeds (10 - 15 m/s) that are more typical of observed MJO behavior away from the convectively active regions. The free variability appears to be synchronized with the forced response, at least, during the strong event examined here. The results of this study support the idea that coupling with SSTs plays an important, though probably not dominant, role in the MJO. The magnitude of the atmospheric response to the SST appears to be in the range of 15% - 30% of the 20-70 day variability over much of the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The results also highlight the need to use caution when interpreting atmospheric model simulations in which the prescribed SST resolve MJO time scales.

Wu, Man Li C.

Trends and Seasonal Variability of Atmospheric NO2 and HNO3 Concentrations Across Three Major African Biomes Inferred from Long-Term Series of Ground-Based and Satellite Measurements

In the framework of the INDAAF (International Network to study Deposition and Atmospheric chemistry in AFrica) programme, part of the ACTRIS (Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure), European Research Infrastructure for the long-term observation of Aerosol, Cloud, and Trace gases, this paper aims to study trends and seasonal variability of surface atmospheric NO2 and HNO3 concentrations, and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) NO2 over 6 sites in tropical Africa. Sites are located in west and central Africa to represent the major African biomes: dry savanna (Banizoumbou, Niger and Katibougou, Mali), wet savanna (Djougou, Benin and Lamto, Côte d’Ivoire) and forest (Bomassa, Republic of Congo and Zoétélé, Cameroon). Ground-based NO2 and HNO3 concentrations were obtained over the period 1998–2015 using INDAAF passive samplers at a monthly basis, and NO2 Vertical Column Densities (VCDs) from OMI for a 1-degree grid cell around each sites were obtained from 2005 to 2015. Mean annual NO2 concentrations ranged from 2.3 plus or minus 1.2 to 0.9 plus or minus 0.4 parts per billion (ppb) from dry savannas to forests, representing a north-south gradient. In dry savannas, we observe two concentration peaks of NO2 appearing at the beginning and the end of the wet season both for ground-based and satellite measurements, whereas at wet savannas and forest sites, NO2 concentrations are highest in the dry season. The seasonality of surface NO2 observations provide further evidence for a large role of microbial soil NOx emissions in dry savannas and of biomass burning NOx emissions in wet savanna and forest sites. Mean annual HNO3 concentrations ranged from 0.4 to 0.5 ppb in dry and wet savannas to 0.2 to 0.3 ppb in forest. In dry ecosystems, higher HNO3 concentrations are measured in the early wet season, consistent with NO2 results. The analysis of a long-term dataset of surface O3 concentrations indicates that HNO3 production can mainly be explained by the photo-oxidation of NOx. Mann-Kendall and Seasonal Kendall statistical tests showed that NO2 surface concentrations have a significant decreasing seasonal and annual trends at multiple sites (p-value less than 0.05) ranging from -2.96 percent per year (at Zoétélé) to -0.64 percent per year (at Banizoumbou). HNO3 results indicate no trends except at Bomassa (1.07 percent per year). The decreasing NO2 ground-based concentration trends observed in wet savannas sites are correlated with OMI NO2 decreasing trends at these sites. Trends obtained for NO2 concentrations in wet savanna and forest ecosystems are consistent with trends of NOₓ biomass burning emissions.

Trends

Mars: Seasonally variable radar reflectivity

Since reflectivity is a quantity characteristic of a given target at a particular geometry, the same (temporally unchanging) target examined by radar on different occasions should have the same reflectivity. Zisk and Mouginis-Mark noted that the average reflectivities in the Goldstone Mars data increased as the planet's S hemisphere passed from the late spring into early summer. The same data set was re-examined and the presence of the phenomenon of the apparent seasonal variability of radar reflectivity was confirmed. Two objections to these findings are addressed: (1) reflectivity variations may be present in the Goldstone Mars data as a result of an instrument/calibration error; and (2) the variations were introduced into the analysis through comparing reflectivities from two incompatible subsets of the data.

Roth, L. E.

OH-asterisk (7-5) Meinel band dayglow and nightglow measured by the SME limb scanning near infrared spectrometer - Comparison of the observed seasonal variability with two-dimensional model simulations

Seasonal variations of the OH-asterisk (7-5) mesospheric hydroxyl emission at 1.89 microns observed by the SME near-IR spectrometer are compared with the theoretical predictions of a two-dimensional dynamical/chemical model. The good agreement found at low latitudes for both dayglow and nightglow provides support for the model assumption that breaking gravity waves induce seasonal and latitudinal variations in diffusion. The seasonal behavior of atomic hydrogen in the upper mesosphere (related to vertical transport) and/or uncertainties in the OH Meinel band parameters are proposed as possible explanations for the discrepancy noted between model and observational data for the middle latitudes.

Le Texier, H.

Impact of Dust-Cloud-Radiation-Precipitation Dynamical Feedback on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon in Global Variable-Resolution Simulations With MPAS-CAM5

In this study, we investigate the effects of increased dust emission from the Middle East deserts on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). Numerical experiments are performed using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) coupled with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) physics, with regional refinement at 30 km grid resolution over South Asia and the surrounding regions. Result shows that increased dust emission and transport from the Middle East/West Asia region induces a strong dust-cloud-radiation-precipitation-circulation feedback, resulting in a colder surface over the desert regions and the western Tibetan Plateau, but warmer and moister troposphere with enhanced cloudiness and precipitation over the Pakistan/Northwest India (PNWI) region. The latter changes are amplified by the dust aerosol induced Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) mechanism along the West Himalayas/Iranian Plateau foothill regions, most pronounced during May- June. During July-August, cloud radiation feedback further enhances the warming of the upper troposphere, and cooling of the land surface over the PNWI and adjacent regions overWest Asia. The upper tropospheric heating and increased precipitation over PNWI spur a large-scale anomalous Rossby wavetrain and a northward displacement of the subtropical jetstream, manifesting in a contraction of the South Asian High and westward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High. As a result, the entire ASM precipitation-cloud system is displaced westward. Precipitation and cloudiness are intensified over northwest and western India and west Asia, but suppressed over southern and central East Asia. Analyses of the S2S variability of the upper level vorticity balance suggests that heating by Middle East dust plays an important role in exciting, and anchoring a teleconnection pattern through interactions among dust cloud radiation, precipitation heating over the PNWI, the development of an upper level Rossby wavetrain, and the northward shift of the boreal summer jetstream over Eurasia.

Asian summer monsoon

Seasonal variability of alongshore geostrophic velocity off central California

The seasonal variation of the alongshore geostropic velocity (AGV) (relative to 500 dbar) over the outer continental slope off Point Sur and Point Conception, California, is investigated statistically on the basis of hydrographic data collected in the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations from 1949 through 1981. Previous observations and theoretical models of the AGV features are reviewed, the data are characterized, and the results are presented graphically and compared with the model predictions. Both locations have coherent mainly annual flow above 100-m depth, north during October-January and south during February-September; below 100 m, the flow is semiannually variable and always northward (with December and June maxima) at Point Conception but annual (with northward maximum in December and weak southward flow from March to May) at Point Sur.

Chelton, D. B.

Seasonal variability of the OH Meinel bands

The influence of seasonal and latitudinal changes in the distribution of mesospheric components on the OH Meinel-band nightglow is investigated by means of numerical simulations using the two-dimensional dynamical/chemical model of Garcia and Solomon (1985). The processes responsible for the formation and destruction of vibrationally excited OH in the mesosphere are described; the seasonal/latitudinal evolution for the higher (v greater than 6) and lower (v = 1-6) levels is shown in graphs and maps and characterized in detail; and the theoretical results are compared with published observational data. The lower-level emission is shown to depend on both O and H, suggesting that the variation of the Meinel-band nightglow can provide important information on the roles of advection and diffusion in the transport of water vapor and odd oxygen near the mesopause.

Le Texier, H.