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At least 19 records

Partial defect verification of spent fuel assemblies by PDET: Principle and field testing in Interim Spent fuel Storage Facility (CLAB) in Sweden

Here, the need for the development of a credible method and instrument for partial defect verification of spent fuel has been emphasized over a few decades in the safeguards communities as the diverted spent fuel pins can be the source of nuclear terrorism or devices. The need is increasingly more important and even urgent as many countries have started to transfer spent fuel to so called "difficult-to-access" areas such as dry storage casks, reprocessing or geological repositories. Partial defect verification is required by IAEA before spent fuel is placed into "difficult-to-access" areas. Earlier, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has reported the successful development of a new, credible partial defect verification method for pressurized water reactor (PWR) spent fuel assemblies without use of operator data, and further reported the validation experiments using commercial spent fuel assemblies with some missing fuel pins. The method was found to be robust as the method is relatively invariant to the characteristic variations of spent fuel assemblies such as initial fuel enrichment, cooling time, and burn-up. Since then, the PDET system has been designed and prototyped for 17×17 PWR spent fuel assemblies, complete with data acquisition software and acquisition electronics. In this paper, a summary description of the PDET development followed by results of the first successful field testing using the integrated PDET system and actual spent fuel assemblies performed in a commercial spent fuel storage site, known as Central Interim Spent fuel Storage Facility (CLAB) in Sweden will be presented. In addition to partial defect detection initial studies have determined that the tool can be used to verify the operator declared average burnup of the assembly as well as intra-assembly bunrup levels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Sweden surpasses the UNAIDS 95-95-95 target: estimating HIV-1 incidence, 2003 to 2022

Background: Sweden reached the UNAIDS 90–90–90 target in 2015. It is important to reassess the HIV epi- demiological situation due to ever-changing migration patterns, the roll-out of PrEP and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Aim: We aimed to assess the pro- gress towards the UNAIDS 95–95–95 targets in Sweden by estimating the proportion of undiagnosed people with HIV (PWHIV) and HIV incidence trends. Methods: We used routine laboratory data to inform a biomarker model of time since infection. When available, we used previous negative test dates, arrival dates for PWHIV from abroad and transmission modes to inform our incidence model. We also used data collected from the Swedish InfCareHIV register on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Results: The yearly incidence of HIV in Sweden decreased after 2014. In part, this was because the fraction of undiagnosed PWHIV had decreased almost twofold since 2006. After 2015, three of four PWHIV in Sweden were diagnosed within 1.9 and 3.2 years after infection among men who have sex with men and in heterosexual groups, respectively. While 80% of new PWHIV in Sweden acquired HIV before immigration, they make up 50% of the current PWHIV in Sweden. By 2022, 96% of all PWHIV in Sweden had been diag- nosed, and 99% of them were on ART, with 98% virally suppressed. Conclusions: By 2022, about half of all PWHIV in Sweden acquired HIV abroad. Using our new biomarker model, we assess that Sweden has reached the UNAIDS goal at 96–99–98.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Time trends and exposure determinants of lead and cadmium in the adult population of northern Sweden 1990–2014

Introduction: This study follows cadmium and lead concentrations in blood in the adult population in northern Sweden over 24 years. Material and methods: Concentrations of lead and cadmium were measured in single whole blood samples (B-Pb and B-Cd) from 619 men and 926 women participating in the Northern Sweden WHO MONICA Study on one occasion 1990–2014. Associations with smoking and dietary factors were investigated. Consumption of moose meat was asked for in 2014. Results: In the adult population in northern Sweden, the median B-Pb in 2014 was 11.0 µg/L in young (25–35 years) men and 9.69 µg/L in young women. In an older age-group (50–60 years), the median B-Pb was 15.1 µg/L in men and 13.1 µg/L in women. B-Pb decreased from 1990 to 2009, after which time no further decrease was observed. B-Pb was higher in smokers than in non-smokers. In never-smokers, positive associations were found between B-Pb and consumption of wine and brewed coffee (women only) in 2004–2014. Higher B-Pb with consumption of moose meat was demonstrated in men, but not in women. B-Cd was essentially stable over the whole period, but an increase in B-Cd, of 3% per year, was detected in never-smoking women between 2009 and 2014. In 2014, median B-Cd in never-smokers in the four groups was; 0.11 µg/L in younger men, 0.15 µg/L in younger women, 0.14 µg/L in older men, and 0.21 µg/L in older women. B-Cd was higher in smokers than in non-smokers. The only positive association between B-Cd and food items in 2004–2014 was with consumption of brewed coffee (men only). Conclusions: The lack of a decrease in B-Cd from 1990 to 2014 and the absence of a further decrease in B-Pb after 2009 are unsatisfactory considering the health risks these metals pose in the general population at current concentrations. - Highlights: • Lead concentrations in blood have not decreased further after 2009 in northern Sweden. • Cadmium concentrations in blood were essentially unchanged over time in northern Sweden 1990–2014. • More knowledge on current sources of human exposure to lead and cadmium is needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Delayed HIV diagnosis common in Sweden, 2003–2010

Background: Early diagnosis of HIV is important for the prognosis of individual patients, because antiretroviral treatment can be started at the appropriate time, and for public health, because transmission can be prevented. Methods: Data were collected from 767 HIV patients who were diagnosed in Sweden during 2003–2010 and were infected in Sweden or born in Sweden and infected abroad. A recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) was applied to BED-EIA test results (OD-n < 0.8), CD4 counts (≥ 200 cells/μl), and clinical information. A recent infection classification was used as indicator for early diagnosis. Time trends in early diagnosis were investigated to detect population changes in HIV testing behavior. Patients with early diagnosis were compared to patients with delayed diagnosis with respect to age, gender, transmission route, and country of infection (Sweden or abroad). Results: Early diagnosis was observed in 271 patients (35%). There was no statistically significant time trend in the yearly percentage of patients with early diagnosis in the entire study group (p = 0.836) or in subgroups. Early diagnosis was significantly more common in men who have sex men (MSM) (45%) than in heterosexuals (21%) and injecting drug users (27%) (p < 0.001 and p = 0.001, respectively) in both univariate and multivariable analyses. The only other factor that remained associated with early diagnosis in multivariable analysis was young age group. Conclusion: Approximately one-third of the study patients were diagnosed early with no significant change over time. Delayed HIV diagnosis is a considerable problem in Sweden, which does not appear to diminish.

delayed diagnosis↗

Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018

In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forestfires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from ameteorological perspective. This is done by studying the Canadian FireWeather Index (FWI) based on sub-daily data, both in reanalysis data sets(ERA-Interim, ERA5, the Japanese 55 year Reanalysis, JRA-55, and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2, MERRA-2) and three large-ensemble climatemodels (EC-Earth, weather@home, W@H, and Community Earth System Model, CESM) simulations. The FWI, based on reanalysis, correlates well with the observed burnt area in summer (r=0.6 to 0.8). We find that the maximum FWI in July 2018 had return times of ~24 years (90 % CI, confidence interval, > 10 years) for southern and northern Sweden. Furthermore, we find a negative trend of the FWI for southern Sweden over the 1979 to 2017 time period in the reanalyses, yielding a non-significant reduced probability of such an event. However, the short observational record, large uncertainty between the reanalysis products and large natural variability of the FWI give a large confidence interval around this number that easily includes no change, so we cannot draw robust conclusions from reanalysis data. The three large-ensembles with climate models point to a roughly 1.1 (0.9 to 1.4) times increased probability (non-significant) for such events in the current climate relative to preindustrial climate. For a future climate (2 °C warming), we find a roughly 2 (1.5 to 3) times increased probability for such events relative to the preindustrial climate. The increased fire weather risk is mainly attributed to the increase intemperature. The other main factor, i.e. precipitation during summer months, isprojected to increase for northern Sweden and decrease for southern Sweden. We, however, do not find a clear change in prolonged dry periods in summer months that could explain the increased fire weather risk in the climate models. In summary, we find a (non-significant) reduced probability of such eventsbased on reanalyses, a small (non-significant) increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust (significant) increase in the risk for such events in the future based on the climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measuring greenhouse gas emissions from international air travel of a country’s residents methodological development and application for Sweden

Highlights: • A new method for estimating a country's GHG emissions from international air travel. • A reliable method based on total statistics of departures and on surveys for distance to final destination. • Total emissions for Swedish residents' air travel increased by 61% between 1990 and 2014 • In 2014 Swedish residents air travel emissions was on par with emissions from Swedish car traffic - Abstract: Global civil aviation accounts for 4–5% of total greenhouse gas emissions and these emissions are increasing. In the absence of sufficiently effective global climate instruments, national instruments might be considered as a complement, in which case some way of allocating emissions from international air travel between countries is needed. The purpose of this paper is to develop an accounting method that reflects one country's greenhouse gas emissions from international air travel, and to apply this methodology to Sweden. The new methodology consists of three parts: the number of international air trips made by the country's residents; the average distance of these trips; and the greenhouse gas emissions per passenger km. For Sweden, data for 1990 to 2014 show an increase in the number of trips by Sweden's population of 3.6% per year, resulting in, on average, one international journey (round trip 5800 km) per capita in 2014. The average distance to the final destination has increased only marginally due to simultaneous growth in both long and short trips. However, global average greenhouse gas emissions per passenger km have decreased by 1.9% per year between 1990 and 2014. Because the increase in the number of their trips has outweighed the decrease in emissions per km, the total emissions from Swedish residents' international air travel have increased by 61% between 1990 and 2014. The total emissions from Swedish residents' air travel, including both CO{sub 2} and non-CO{sub 2}-effects, were 11 Mt CO{sub 2} equivalents in 2014, which is the same level as the emissions from Swedish car traffic. This type of reliable data is important when designing policies and for getting public support for new policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Primary and secondary battery consumption trends in Sweden 1996–2013: Method development and detailed accounting by battery type

Highlights: • Developed MFA method was validated by the national statistics. • Exponential increase of EEE sales leads to increase in integrated battery consumption. • Digital convergence is likely to be a cause for primary batteries consumption decline. • Factors for estimation of integrated batteries in EE are provided. • Sweden reached the collection rates defined by European Union. - Abstract: In this article, a new method based on Material Flow Accounting is proposed to study detailed material flows in battery consumption that can be replicated for other countries. The method uses regularly available statistics on import, industrial production and export of batteries and battery-containing electric and electronic equipment (EEE). To promote method use by other scholars with no access to such data, several empirically results and their trends over time, for different types of batteries occurrence among the EEE types are provided. The information provided by the method can be used to: identify drivers of battery consumption; study the dynamic behavior of battery flows – due to technology development, policies, consumers behavior and infrastructures. The method is exemplified by the study of battery flows in Sweden for years 1996–2013. The batteries were accounted, both in units and weight, as primary and secondary batteries; loose and integrated; by electrochemical composition and share of battery use between different types of EEE. Results show that, despite a fivefold increase in the consumption of rechargeable batteries, they account for only about 14% of total use of portable batteries. Recent increase in digital convergence has resulted in a sharp decline in the consumption of primary batteries, which has now stabilized at a fairly low level. Conversely, the consumption of integrated batteries has increased sharply. In 2013, 61% of the total weight of batteries sold in Sweden was collected, and for the particular case of alkaline manganese dioxide batteries, the value achieved 74%.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Vattenfall Decommissioning Planning in Sweden - 17544

A rapid decrease in the power prices in the Nordic market for the last three years has drastically reduced the profitability of the nuclear power plants in Sweden. This has resulted in a very quick re-evaluation of the optimal life-term of the older generation, from the 1970's, nuclear units in Sweden. Hence, it was decided last year to shut-down the Vattenfall Ringhals-1 BWR and the Ringhals-2 PWR by 2020 and 2019, respectively, for financial reasons. Before that decision, the planning had been to operate the units until 50 years life-time, i.e. 2024 and 2025. This decision resulted in a prompt start of the planning for decommissioning of the two units. The planning started with a project, called AVANS, to ensure that the overall planning and to-be-developed organisations had well defined requirements and a common platform. Another project, STURE, was started to ensure the continued operation and in some case movement of common site functions to the two younger units on the Ringhals site, i.e. the PWRs Ringhals-3 and Ringhals-4. This project also has the responsibility to optimise operation of Ringhals-1 and Ringhals-2 to EOL and the subsequent removal of the nuclear fuel from the units after necessary cool-down. A third project started is the actual decommissioning project, TYKO, benefiting from experience gained and staff involved in still ongoing decommissioning of a legacy materials reactor, i.e. the Studsvik R2/R2-0 reactor. The planning and experience to date for the three projects will be presented in the paper, as well as lessons-learned and future plans, including some critical items identified wrt dismantling and site function transfer. Half of the nuclear units in Sweden, six units, and one legacy power reactor, will be starting decommissioning within the next few years. Impacts on the back-end system; the financial situation, with respect to the state-controlled financial funding; and the supplier market are discussed in the paper. Furthermore, the planning process and the planned management of the interfaces between the involved organisations is described. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Integrated simulations of CO 2 spreading and pressure response in the multilayer saline aquifer of South Scania Site, Sweden

In this paper, an integrated modeling approach/workflow, in which a series of mathematical models of different levels of complexity are applied to evaluate the geological storage capacity of the Scania Site, southwest Sweden, is presented. The storage formation at the site is a layered formation limited by bounding fault zones, and injection is assumed to take place from one existing deep borehole into all layers. A semi-analytical model for two-phase flow is first used to evaluate the pressure response and related parameter sensitivity, as well as the first estimates of acceptable injection rates. These results are then used to guide the more detailed numerical simulations that address both pressure response and plume migration. The vertical equilibrium (VE) model is used to obtain a preliminary understanding of the plume migration with a larger number of simulations. Finally the full TOUGH2/ECO2N simulations are performed for the most detailed analyses of pressure responses and plume migration. Throughout, the results of the different modeling approaches are compared to each other. It is concluded that the key limiting factor for the storage capacity at the site in the injection scenario considered is the fast CO 2 migration within the high permeability layer. Finally, future studies can address alternative injection scenarios, including using horizontal injection wells and injection to other layers than the high permeability layer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of the reason for the vitrification of a wall at a hillfort. The example of Broborg in Sweden

It was discovered around 250 years ago that some of the rock material in the walls of some hillforts had been subjected to such high temperature that it had vitrified. This prompted a debate as to the reason for it that is still going on today: did the vitrification come about as a result of hostile action, by accident, or for the purpose of constructing the fort? The present paper is based on the prerequisite that hillforts are different, and therefore should be evaluated individually. All identifiable factors of interest should be included, and especially those that might disprove any alternative. Thus, incentives, competence and petrographic aspects were evaluated for the hillfort Broborg (dated Migration Period, in Sweden A.D. 400 - 550), and it is concluded that the vitrification came about for the purpose of constructing the fort. This capability was lost when mortar was introduced half a millennium later.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hydraulic Modeling of Induced and Propagated Fractures: Analysis of Flow and Pressure Data From Hydromechanical Experiments in the COSC-1 Deep Borehole in Crystalline Rock Near Åre, Sweden

To characterize the coupled hydromechanical behavior of rock fractures, the step-rate injection method for fracture in-situ properties (SIMFIP) was conducted with a specialized downhole probe developed by Guglielmi et.al. In June 2019, a field campaign was carried out near Åre, Sweden, where the SIMFIP probe was applied in the Collisional Orogeny in the Scandinavian Caledonides-1 scientific borehole to understand the dynamics of injection-induced fracture initiation, fracture opening, and shearing due to water injection-withdrawal in a borehole interval isolated by two packers. Three intervals were investigated at ~500 m depth: (a) an unfractured section (intact rock), (b) a section with non-conductive fractures, and (c) a section with hydraulically conductive fractures. Pressure, injection flow rate, and borehole wall displacement were simultaneously measured during the tests. In the present study, the geometry of the induced fracture and deformation of existing fractures at different time stages of the tests are determined based on a hydrologic model by using the measured pressure and flow data during each time stage of the experiment. A numerical model for the fluid flow within the fracture and the packed-off borehole interval is implemented within COMSOL Multiphysics. By matching model simulations with observed data for all three sections, estimates of the induced and propagated fractures' radius and aperture at successive time stages have been obtained in each case. We could also determine the non-linear relationship between fracture aperture and pressure for values above fracture opening pressures. The model results provide insights for the understanding of pressure-induced fracture initiation and propagation in crystalline rock.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

CBF-dependent and CBF-independent regulatory pathways contribute to the differences in freezing tolerance and cold-regulated gene expression of two Arabidopsis ecotypes locally adapted to sites in Sweden and Italy

Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis) increases in freezing tolerance in response to low nonfreezing temperatures, a phenomenon known as cold acclimation. The CBF regulatory pathway, which contributes to cold acclimation, includes three genes—CBF1, CBF2 and CBF3—encoding closely-related transcription factors that regulate the expression of more than 100 genes—the CBF regulon—that impart freezing tolerance. Here we compare the CBF pathways of two Arabidopsis ecotypes collected from sites in Sweden (SW) and Italy (IT). Previous studies showed that the SW ecotype was more freezing tolerant than the IT ecotype and that the IT ecotype had a nonfunctional CBF2 gene. Here we present results establishing that the difference in CBF2 alleles contributes to the difference in freezing tolerance between the two ecotypes. However, other differences in the CBF pathway as well as CBF-independent pathways contribute the large majority of the difference in freezing tolerance between the two ecotypes. The results also provided evidence that most cold-induced CBF regulon genes in both the SW and IT ecotypes are coregulated by CBF-independent pathways. Additional analysis comparing our results with those published by others examining the Col-0 accession resulted in the identification of 44 CBF regulon genes that were conserved among the three accessions suggesting that they likely have important functions in life at low temperature. The comparison further supported the conclusion that the CBF pathway can account for a large portion of the increase in freezing tolerance that occurs with cold acclimation in a given accession, but that CBF-independent pathways can also make a major contribution.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

IEA Wind TCP Task 26–Wind Technology, Cost, and Performance Trends in Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, the European Union, and the United States: 2008-2016

The International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme (IEA Wind TCP) Task 26 - The Cost of Wind Energy represents an international collaboration dedicated to exploring the past, present, and future cost of wind energy. The countries that are currently represented by participating organizations in IEA Wind TCP Task 26 included in this report are Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, the European Union, and the United States. This report discusses trends from 2008 through 2016 that affected the cost of land-based wind energy in each country. The cost of wind energy during this period is compared with the market value of wind energy in the respective electricity market for each country. This report builds from previous analysis conducted since the inception of Task 26 in 2009. Schwabe et al. (2011) explored differences in the cost of wind energy in 2008 among countries participating in Task 26 at that time. Vitina et al. (2015) presented turbine- and project-level trends in the wind industry from 2008 to 2012, including wind project size, turbine size, specific power and hub height, project performance, investment costs, operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, and project financing. These inputs are used to calculate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), a widely recognized metric for understanding how technology performance, capital investment, operations, and financing impact the life cycle cost of building and operating a wind project. Both prior reports - as well as this report - used this metric to estimate the cost of wind energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

IEA Wind TCP Task 26: Wind Technology, Cost, and Performance Trends for Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the European Union, and the United States 2016-2019

The Cost of Wind Energy represents an international collaboration dedicated to exploring the historical and future cost of wind energy in addition to the investigating the market value wind energy may provide. The countries that are currently represented by participating organizations in IEA Wind TCP Task 26 included in this report are Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the European Union, and the United States. This manuscript documents technology and cost trends from 2008 through 2019 and discusses the trends from 2016 through 2019 that affected the cost of land-based wind energy within each country. The cost of wind energy during this period is compared with the market value of wind energy in the respective electricity market for each country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Controls on Soil Organic Matter Degradation and Subsequent Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across a Permafrost Thaw Gradient in Northern Sweden

Warming-induced permafrost thaw could enhance microbial decomposition of previously stored soil organic matter (SOM) to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. The environmental parameters regulating microbe-organic matter interactions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in northern permafrost peatlands are however still largely unknown. The objective of this work is to understand controls on SOM degradation and its impact on porewater GHG concentrations across the Stordalen Mire, a thawing peat plateau in Northern Sweden. Here, we applied high-resolution mass spectrometry to characterize SOM molecular composition in peat soil samples from the active layers of a Sphagnum-dominated bog and rich fen sites in the Mire. Microbe-organic matter interactions and porewater GHG concentrations across the thaw gradient were controlled by aboveground vegetation and soil pH. An increasingly high abundance of reduced organic compounds experiencing greater humification rates due to enhanced microbial activity were observed with increasing thaw, in parallel with higher CH 4 and CO 2 porewater concentrations. Bog SOM however contained more Sphagnum-derived phenolics, simple carbohydrates, and organic- acids. The low degradation of bog SOM by microbial communities, the enhanced SOM transformation by potentially abiotic mechanisms, and the accumulation of simple carbohydrates in the bog sites could be attributed in part to the low pH conditions of the system associated with Sphagnum mosses. We show that Gibbs free energy of C half reactions based on C oxidation state for OM can be used as a quantifiable measure for OM decomposability and quality to enhance current biogeochemical models to predict C decomposition rates. We found a direct association between OM chemical diversity and δ 13 C-CH 4 in peat porewater; where higher substrate diversity was positively correlated with enriched δ 13 C-CH 4 in fen sites. Oxidized sulfur-containing compounds, produced by Sphagnum, were further hypothesized to control GHG emissions by acting as electron acceptors for a sulfate-reducing electron transport chain, inhibiting methanogenesis in peat bogs. These results suggest that warming-induced permafrost thaw might increase organic matter lability, in subset of sites that become wetlands, and shift biogeochemical processes toward faster decomposition with an increasing proportion of carbon released as CH 4 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing effects of permafrost thaw on C fluxes based on multiyear modeling across a permafrost thaw gradient at Stordalen, Sweden

Northern peatlands in permafrost regions contain a large amount of organic carbon (C) in the soil. Climate warming and associated permafrost degradation are expected to have significant impacts on the C balance of these ecosystems, but the magnitude is uncertain. We incorporated a permafrost model, Northern Ecosystem Soil Temperature (NEST), into a biogeochemical model, DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC), to model C dynamics in high-latitude peatland ecosystems. The enhanced model was applied to assess effects of permafrost thaw on C fluxes of a subarctic peatland at Stordalen, Sweden. DNDC simulated soil freeze–thaw dynamics, net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE), and CH 4 fluxes across three typical land cover types, which represent a gradient in the process of ongoing permafrost thaw at Stordalen. Model results were compared with multiyear field measurements, and the validation indicates that DNDC was able to simulate observed differences in seasonal soil thaw, NEE, and CH 4 fluxes across the three land cover types. Consistent with the results from field studies, the modeled C fluxes across the permafrost thaw gradient demonstrate that permafrost thaw and the associated changes in soil hydrology and vegetation not only increase net uptake of C from the atmosphere but also increase the annual to decadal radiative forcing impacts on climate due to increased CH 4 emissions. This study indicates the potential of utilizing biogeochemical models, such as DNDC, to predict the soil thermal regime in permafrost areas and to investigate impacts of permafrost thaw on ecosystem C fluxes after incorporating a permafrost component into the model framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗