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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Warning Signs of Potential Black Swan Outbreaks in Infectious Disease

Black swan events in infectious disease describe rare but devastatingly large outbreaks. While experts are skeptical that such events are predictable, it might be possible to identify the warning signs of a black swan event. Specifically, following the initiation of an outbreak, key differentiating features could serve as alerts. Such features could be derived from meta-analyses of large outbreaks for multiple infectious diseases. We hypothesized there may be common features among the pathogen, environment, and host epidemiological triad that characterize an infectious disease black swan event. Using Los Alamos National Laboratory’s tool, Analytics for Investigation of Disease Outbreaks, we investigated historical disease outbreak information and anomalous events for several infectious diseases. By studying 32 different infectious diseases and global outbreaks, we observed that in the past 20–30 years, there have been potential black swan events in the majority of infectious diseases analyzed. Importantly, these potential black swan events cannot be attributed to the first introduction of the disease to a susceptible host population. This paper describes our observations and perspectives and illustrates the value of broad analysis of data across the infectious disease realm, providing insights that may not be possible when we focus on singular infectious agents or diseases. Data analytics could be developed to warn health authorities at the beginning of an outbreak of an impending black swan event. Such tools could complement traditional epidemiological modeling to help forecast future large outbreaks and facilitate timely warning and effective, targeted resource allocation for mitigation efforts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Black Swan Event Small-Sample Transfer Learning (BEST-L) and its Case Study on Electrical Power Prediction in COVID-19

The black swan event will usually cause a great impact on the normal operation of society. The scarcity of such events leads to a lack of relevant data and challenges in dealing with related problems. Different situations also make the traditional methods invalid. In this paper, a transfer learning framework and a convolutional neuron network are proposed to deal with the black swan small-sample events (BEST-L). Taking the COVID-19 as a typical black swan event, the BEST-L is utilized to achieve accurate mid-term load forecasting using the relationship between economy and electricity consumption. The experiment results show that the transfer learning model can effectively learn the basic knowledge about the relationship between the adopted input and output data and use a relatively small amount of data during the black swan event to improve the target areas' generalization. The approach and results can provide an effective approach to respond and react to sudden changes quickly and effectively in similar open problems.

black swan event↗
NASA NTRS2003

Can SOHO SWAN detect CMEs?

We have investigated the possibility that the Solar Wind Anisotropies (SWAN) remote sensing instrument on SOHO may be able to detect coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in neutral Hydrogen Lyman-? emission. We have identified CMEs near the Sun in observations by the SOHO LASCO white-light coronagraphs and in extreme ultraviolet emissions using SOHO E n . There are very few methods of tracking CMEs after they leave the coronagraph's field-of-view, so this is an important topic to study. The primary science goal of the SWAN investigation is the measurement of large-scale structures in the solar wind, and these are obtained by detecting intensity fluctuations in Lyman-?. SWAN consists of a pair of Sensors on opposite panels of SOHO. The instantaneous field-of-view of each sensor unit is a So x So square, divided into lo pixels. A gimbaled periscope system allows each sensor to map the intensity distribution of Lyman-?, and the entire sky can be scanned in less than one day. This is the typical mode of operation for this instrument.

St.Cyr, O. C.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Structures far from the head of comet Kohoutek. II - A discussion of the Swan Cloud of January 11 and of the general morphology of cometary plasma tails

Photographs show that the 'Swan Cloud' observed in comet Kohoutek on January 11, 1974 was an advanced stage of a plasma tail disconnection event, of which the rejected tail appeared to decelerate as it receded from the head. The event commenced with the development of strong tail ray activity followed by the actual tail disconnection, the merging of the disconnected tail with the new tail to form the Swan and the formation of arcade loops in the space between closing tail rays. The observed morphological sequence is easily understood in the sector boundary model (Niedner et al., 1978), and the arcade loops are proposed to be reconnected flux tubes between oppositely polarized tail rays in the incipient new tail which followed the disconnection

Niedner, M. B., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Study of the isotopic features of Swan bands in comets

It is shown from a detailed statistical equilibrium calculation of the (C-12)(C-13) molecule that the interpretation of the observed intensities of Swan bands of the normal and the isotopic molecule of C2 in terms of the abundance ratio of C-12 and C-13 is a reasonable one. The synthetic profile of some isotopic features in the (0.0) Swan band is compared with the observed profiles for comet West.

Krishna Swamy, K. S.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Fourier transform spectroscopy of the Swan (d(sup 3)pi(sub g) - a(sup 3)pi(sub u)) system of the jet-cooled C2 molecule

The Swan (d(sup 3)pi(sub g) - a(sup 3)pi(sub u)) system of the C2 molecule was produced in a jet-cooled corona excited supersonic expansion of helium using diazoacetonitrile as a percursor molecule. This spectrum was recorded using the McMath Fourier transform spectrometer of the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak. A total of nine bands with v prime = 0 to 3 and v prime prime = 0 to 4 in the range 16,570-22,760/cm were observed and rotationally analyzed. The C2 molecules in this source had a rotational temperature of only 90 K so that only the low-J lines were present in the spectrum. In some sense the low temperatures in the jet source simulate conditions in the interstellar medium. The Swan system of C2 was also produced in a composite wall hollow cathode made Al4C3/Cu, and the rotational structure of the 1-0, 2-1, 3-2, 0-0, and 1-1 bands were analyzed. The data obtained from both these spectra were fitted together along with some recently published line positions. The rotational constants, lambda doubling parameters and the vibrational constants were estimated from this global fit. Our work on jet-cooled C2 follows similar work on the violet and red systems of CN. A summary of this CN work is also presented. also presented.

Prasad, C. V. V.↗
NASA NTRS1965

C sub 2 swan bands in comets.

Relative populations of vibrational levels of carbon Swan bands in comets excited by resonance fluorescence

SWAN BAND↗
NASA NTRS1965

C2 Swan bands in comets

Relative population calculation of vibration levels of electronic levels assuming fluorescence mechanism for carbon-carbon bond Swan bands in comets

SWAN BAND↗
NASA NTRS2024

Integrated Systems Engineering, Safety, Reliability and Risk Management – Minimizing Black Swan Events

This paper examines key barriers that can possibly inhibit safe and reliable mission execution and, in the worst case, result in loss of human life due to many unknown contributory factors that can lead to Black Swan events. Some of the representative contributory factors include decision errors, overconfidence and a host of common causes including cultural and human factors. Decisions are always easy to criticize in hindsight when more information is available after a major accident. Depending on the type and complexity of the project and/or mission, the catastrophic risks of drifting into failure can be alleviated by implementing uniquely and strategically tailored Integrated-System-of-Systems, dynamic, risk-informed decision management processes. This paper presents some of the lessons learned from James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), NASA’s Human Space Flight program, and industry that provide motivation to organizations working on mega-complex missions to prudently accomplish targeted mission success. These lessons are important for future human Lunar, Mars and Beyond missions planned to be pursued by NASA through a public-private partnership using nimble but effective safety-conscious, proven sound engineering practices including implementation of integrated risk mitigation practices.

SLS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Swan: Data-driven Inference of Stellar Surface Gravities for Cool Stars from Photometric Light Curves

Stellar light curves are well known to encode physical stellar properties. Precise, automated, and computationally inexpensive methods to derive physical parameters from light curves are needed to cope with the large influx of these data from space-based missions such as Kepler and TESS. Here we present a new methodology that we call “The Swan,” a fast, generalizable, and effective approach for deriving stellar surface gravity (logg) for main-sequence, subgiant, and red giant stars from Kepler light curves using local linear regression on the full frequency content of Kepler long-cadence power spectra. With this inexpensive data-driven approach, we recover logg to a precision of ~0.02 dex for 13,822 stars with seismic logg values between 0.2 and 4.4 dex and ~0.11 dex for 4646 stars with Gaia-derived logg values between 2.3 and 4.6 dex. We further develop a signal-to-noise metric and find that granulation is difficult to detect in many cool main-sequence stars (T {sub eff} ≲ 5500 K), in particular K dwarfs. By combining our logg measurements with Gaia radii, we derive empirical masses for 4646 subgiant and main-sequence stars with a median precision of ~7%. Finally, we demonstrate that our method can be used to recover logg to a similar mean absolute deviation precision for a TESS baseline of 27 days. Our methodology can be readily applied to photometric time series observations to infer stellar surface gravities to high precision across evolutionary states.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1981

Theoretical electronic transition moments for the Ballik-Ramsay, Fox-Herzberg, and Swan systems of C2

Electronic transition moments and their variation with internuclear separation are calculated for the Ballik-Ramsay (b 3 Sigma g - a 3 Pi u), Fox-Herzberg (e 3 Pi g-a 3 Pi u) and Swan (d 3 Pi g-a 3 Pi u) band systems of C2, which appear in a variety of terrestrial and astrophysical sources. Electronic wave functions of the a 3 Pi u, b 2 Sigma g -, d 3 Pi g and e 3 Pi g states of C2 are obtained by means of a self-consistent field plus configuration interaction calculation using an atomic basis of 46 Slater-type orbitals, and theoretical potential energy curves and spectroscopic constants for the four electronic states were computed. The results obtained for both the potential energy curves and electronic transition moments are found to be in good agreement with experimental data.

Cooper, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

SWAN: An expert system with natural language interface for tactical air capability assessment

SWAN is an expert system and natural language interface for assessing the war fighting capability of Air Force units in Europe. The expert system is an object oriented knowledge based simulation with an alternate worlds facility for performing what-if excursions. Responses from the system take the form of generated text, tables, or graphs. The natural language interface is an expert system in its own right, with a knowledge base and rules which understand how to access external databases, models, or expert systems. The distinguishing feature of the Air Force expert system is its use of meta-knowledge to generate explanations in the frame and procedure based environment.

Simmons, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Multi-Wavelength Study of Parent Volatile Abundances in Comet C/2006 M4 (SWAN)

Volatile organic emissions were detected post-perihelion in the long period comet C/2006 M4 (SWAN) in October and November 2006. Our study combines target-of-opportunity, observations using the infrared Cryogenic Echelle Spectrometer (CSHELL) at the NASA-IRTF 3-m telescope, and millimeter wavelength observations using the Arizona Radio Observatory (ARO) 12-m telescope. Five parent volatiles were measured with CSHELL (H2O, CO, CH3OH, CH4, and C2H6), and two additional species (HCN and CS) were measured with the ARID 12-m. These revealed highly depleted CO and somewhat enriched CH3OH compared with abundances observed in the dominant group of long-period (Oort cloud) comets in our sample and similar to those observed recently in Comet 8P/Tuttle. This may indicate highly efficient H-atom addition to CO at very low temperature (approx.10-20 K) on the surfaces of interstellar (pre-cometary) grains. Comet C12006 M4 had nearly "normal" C2H6, and CH4, suggesting a processing history similar to that experienced by the dominant group. When compared with estimated water production at the time of the millimeter observations, HCN was slightly depleted compared with the normal abundance in comets based on 1R observations but was consistent with the majority of values from the millimeter. The ratio CS/HCN in C/2006 M4 was within the range measured in ten comets at millimeter wavelengths. The higher apparent H-atom conversion efficiency compared with most comets may indicate that the icy grains incorporated into C/2006 M4 were exposed to higher H-atom densities, or alternatively to similar densities but for a longer period of time.

DiSanti, Michael A.↗