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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of Theoretical Solutions to a Bottom-Raised Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter (OSWEC) Through Experimental and Parametric Studies

Experiments were conducted on a wave tank model of a bottom raised oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) model in regular waves. The OSWEC model shape was a thin rectangular flap, which was allowed to pitch in response to incident waves about a hinge located at the intersection of the flap and the top of the supporting foundation. Torsion springs were added to the hinge in order to position the pitch natural frequency at the center of the wave frequency range of the wave maker. The flap motion as well as the loads at the base of the foundation were measured. The OSWEC was modeled analytically using elliptic functions in order to obtain closed form expressions for added mass and radiation damping coefficients, along with the excitation force and torque. These formulations were derived and reported in a previous publication by the authors. While analytical predictions of the foundation loads agree very well with experiments, large discrepancies are seen in the pitch response close to resonance. These differences are analyzed by conducting a sensitivity study, in which system parameters, including damping and added mass values, are varied. The likely contributors to the differences between predictions and experiments are attributed to tank reflections, standing waves that can occur in long, narrow wave tanks, as well as the thin plate assumption employed in the analytical approach.

analytical↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions

We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community 's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community 's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Balancing Power Absorption and Fatigue Loads in Irregular Waves for an Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter

The aim of this paper is to describe how to control the power-to-load ratio of a novel wave energy converter (WEC) in irregular waves. The novel WEC that is being developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory combines an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) with control surfaces as part of the structure; however, this work only considers one fixed geometric configuration. This work extends the optimal control problem so as to not solely maximize the time-averaged power, but to also consider the power-take-off (PTO) torque and foundation forces that arise because of WEC motion. The objective function of the controller will include competing terms that force the controller to balance power capture with structural loading. Separate penalty weights were placed on the surge-foundation force and PTO torque magnitude, which allows the controller to be tuned to emphasize either power absorption or load shedding. Results of this study found that, with proper selection of penalty weights, gains in time-averaged power would exceed the gains in structural loading while minimizing the reactive power requirement.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2018

Seismicity Rate Surge on Faults after Shut–in: Poroelastic Response to Fluid Injection

Injection of large amounts of fluid into the subsurface alters the states of pore pressure and stress in the formation, potentially inducing earthquakes. Increase in the seismicity rate after shut–in is often observed at fluid–injection operation sites, but mechanistic study of the rate surge has not been investigated thoroughly. Considering full poroelastic coupling of pore pressure and stress, the earthquake occurrence after shut–in can be driven by two mechanisms: (1) post shut–in diffusion of pore pressure into distant faults and (2) poroelastic stressing caused by fluid injection. Interactions of these mechanisms can depend on fault geometry, hydraulic and mechanical properties of the formation, and injection operation. In this work, a 2D aerial view of the target reservoir intersected by strike–slip basement faults is used to evaluate the impact of injection–induced pressure buildup on seismicity rate surge. A series of sensitivity tests are performed by considering the variation in (1) permeability of the fault zone, (2) locations and the number of faults with respect to the injector, and (3) well operations with time–dependent injection rates. Lower permeability faults have higher seismicity rates than more permeable faults after shut–in due to delayed diffusion and poroelastic stressing. Hydraulic barriers, depending on their relative location to injection, can either stabilize or weaken a conductive fault via poroelastic stresses. In conclusion, gradual reduction of the injection rate minimizes the coulomb stress change and the least seismicity rates are predicted due to slower relaxation of coupling–induced compression as well as pore–pressure dissipation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Cold surges and dust events: Establishing the link between the East Asian Winter Monsoon and the Chinese loess record

The Chinese loess/palaeosol succession is one of the most comprehensive and intensively studied archives of Neogene and Quaternary global palaeoclimate events. Its stratigraphic details are widely recognised to indicate close links to the history and function of the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) – one of the most active components of the Earth's climate system. But the formal meteorological links between the EAWM and dust emission, both in the present day and in the past, have not been established and with it, the veracity of the loess record as an indicator of the EAWM questioned. Here we show that present day major dust events over northern China, while largely occurring during spring, are nevertheless ‘conditioned’ by the strength of the preceding EAWM. We also demonstrate, for the first time, a close link between the occurrence of dust events and the strength of the EAWM. From these findings, linked to global-scale climate model simulations, we conclude that the Chinese loess succession provides a convincing proxy record of the strength of the East Asian Winter Monsoon.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2019

Storm Surge Modeling in Puget Sound

In this study, a storm surge model of the Salish Sea was developed to simulate storm surge in Puget Sound using the unstructured-grid, finite-volume community ocean model (FVCOM). The model was based on Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s existing Puget Sound hydrodynamic model that has been validated extensively in previous studies. To identify representative historical storm events, a systematic approach was developed based on the non-tidal residual (NTR) method. A total of 34 storm surge events between 1980 and 2016 were identified and simulated. To accurately simulate storm surge inside Puget Sound, the model was driven by reanalyzed Climate Forecast System Reanalysis meteorological forcing and observed water levels at the entrance of Strait of Juan de Fuca and southern entrance of Johnstone Strait. Model results for total water level, storm surge, and currents were compared with field measurements. A series of error statistics parameters were also calculated to quantify the model’s skills in simulating storm surge in the Salish Sea. Error statistics of model performance metrics demonstrated that the Salish Sea storm surge model was able to simulate storm surge inside Puget Sound with high accuracy. Storm surge propagation into Puget Sound is a nonlinear process that cannot be simply determined by a static approach for the entire domain. The maximum NTR distribution inside Puget Sound suggests that storm surge tends to be amplified in several sub-basins and inlets of the Puget Sound, such as Bellingham Bay, Hood Canal, south Puget Sound, and the multi-inlet basin behind Agate and Rich Passages. Therefore, future study is necessary to further quantify the storm surge level in these high-risk areas through field measurements and refined model simulations.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2017

Global reconstructed daily surge levels from the 20th Century Reanalysis (1871–2010)

Studying the effect of global patterns of wind and pressure gradients on the sea level variation (storm surge) is a key issue in understanding the recent climate change effect on the dynamical state of the ocean. The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges from observations is a difficult task to accomplish since observations are not homogeneous in time, scarce in space, and moreover, their temporal coverage is limited. A recent global surge database developed by AVISO (DAC, Dynamic Atmospheric Correction) fulfilled the lack of data in terms of spatial coverage, but not regarding time extent, since it only includes the last two decades (1992–2014). In this work, we use the 20th Century Reanalysis V2 (20CR), which spans the years 1871 to 2010, to statistically reconstruct daily maximum surge levels at a global scale. A multivariate linear regression model is fitted between daily mean ERA-interim sea level pressure fields and daily maximum surge levels from DAC. Following, the statistical model is used to reconstruct daily surges using mean sea level pressure fields from 20CR. The verification of the statistical model shows good agreements between DAC levels and the reconstructed surge levels from the 20CR. The validation of the reconstructed surge with tide gauges, distributed throughout the domain, shows good accuracy both in terms of high correlations and small errors. A time series comparison is also depicted at specific tide gauges for the beginning of the 20th century, showing a high concordance. Therefore, this work provides to the scientific community, a daily database of maximum surge levels; which correspond to an extension of the DAC database, from 1871 to 2010. This database can be used to improve the knowledge on historical storm surge conditions, allowing the study of their temporal and spatial variability.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2012

OBSERVATIONS OF MULTIPLE SURGES ASSOCIATED WITH MAGNETIC ACTIVITIES IN AR 10484 ON 2003 OCTOBER 25

We present a multi-wavelength study of recurrent surges observed in H{alpha}, UV (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/EIT), and Radio (Learmonth, Australia) from the super-active region NOAA 10484 on 2003 October 25. Several bright structures visible in H{alpha} and UV corresponding to subflares are also observed at the base of each surge. Type III bursts are triggered and RHESSI X-ray sources are evident with surge activity. The major surge consists of bunches of ejective paths forming a fan-shaped region with an angular size of ( Almost-Equal-To 65 Degree-Sign ) during its maximum phase. The ejection speed reaches up to {approx}200 km s{sup -1}. The SOHO/Michelson Doppler Imager magnetograms reveal that a large dipole emerges from the east side of the active region on 2003 October 18-20, a few days before the surges. On 2003 October 25, the major sunspots were surrounded by 'moat regions' with moving magnetic features (MMFs). Parasitic fragmented positive polarities were pushed by the ambient dispersion motion of the MMFs and annihilated with negative polarities at the borders of the moat region of the following spot to produce flares and surges. A topology analysis of the global Sun using Potential Field Source Surface shows that the fan structures visible in the EIT 171 A images follow magnetic field lines connecting the present active region to a preceding active region in the southeast. Radio observations of Type III bursts indicate that they are coincident with the surges, suggesting that magnetic reconnection is the driver mechanism. The magnetic energy released by the reconnection is transformed into plasma heating and provides the kinetic energy for the ejections. A lack of a radio signature in the high corona suggests that the surges are confined to follow the closed field lines in the fans. We conclude that these cool surges may have some local heating effects in the closed loops, but probably play a minor role in global coronal heating and the surge material does not escape to the solar wind.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

AN EXTREME-ULTRAVIOLET WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE

Taking advantage of the high temporal and spatial resolution observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we present an extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wave associated with a surge on 2010 November 13. Due to the magnetic flux cancelation, some surges formed in the source active region (AR). The strongest surge produced our studied event. The surge was deflected by the nearby loops that connected to another AR, and disrupted the overlying loops that slowly expanded and eventually evolved into a weak coronal mass ejection (CME). The surge was likely associated with the core of the CME. The EUV wave happened after the surge deflected. The wave departed far from the flare center and showed a close location relative to the deflected surge. The wave propagated in a narrow angular extent, mainly in the ejection direction of the surge. The close timing and location relations between the EUV wave and the surge indicate that the wave was closely associated with the CME. The wave had a velocity of 310-350 km s{sup -1}, while the speeds of the surge and the expanding loops were about 130 and 150 km s{sup -1}, respectively. All of the results suggest that the EUV wave was a fast-mode wave and was most likely triggered by the weak CME.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea

Here we present a modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea—a large and complex estuarine system in the Pacific Northwest that is exposed to extratropical cyclones. A method was developed to systematically identify storm surge events in the Salish Sea based on water level records at four representative tidal gauges in the Salish Sea. The maximum storm surge distribution in the Salish Sea was calculated based on model simulations of 34 major historical storm events from 1980 to 2016. The model simulations were validated by field observations of water level and velocity using a suite of model performance metrics. Model results suggest that the maximum storm surge in the Salish Sea is generally in the range of 0.8 m–1.03 m and is heterogeneous in space. The model results also show a strong north-south gradient with larger surge magnitudes occurring in the north that is primarily caused by the southerly wind in winter months. The sensitivity analysis of wind forcing suggested that storm surge in the Salish Sea is dominated by the remote surge from the Pacific Ocean, and the local wind contributes up to approximately 20% of the surge variability. This paper systematically elucidates storm surge characteristics and potential risk in the Salish Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

THE KINEMATICS AND PLASMA PROPERTIES OF A SOLAR SURGE TRIGGERED BY CHROMOSPHERIC ACTIVITY IN AR11271

We observe a solar surge in NOAA AR11271 using the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly 304 A image data on 2011 August 25. The surge rises vertically from its origin up to a height of Almost-Equal-To 65 Mm with a terminal velocity of Almost-Equal-To 100 km s{sup -1}, and thereafter falls and fades gradually. The total lifetime of the surge was Almost-Equal-To 20 minutes. We also measure the temperature and density distribution of the observed surge during its maximum rise and find an average temperature and a density of 2.0 MK and 4.1 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 9} cm{sup -3}, respectively. The temperature map shows the expansion and mixing of cool plasma lagging behind the hot coronal plasma along the surge. Because SDO/HMI temporal image data do not show any detectable evidence of significant photospheric magnetic field cancellation for the formation of the observed surge, we infer that it is probably driven by magnetic-reconnection-generated thermal energy in the lower chromosphere. The radiance (and thus the mass density) oscillations near the base of the surge are also evident, which may be the most likely signature of its formation by a reconnection-generated pulse. In support of the present observational baseline of the triggering of the surge due to chromospheric heating, we devise a numerical model with conceivable implementation of the VAL-C atmosphere and a thermal pulse as an initial trigger. We find that the pulse steepens into a slow shock at higher altitudes which triggers plasma perturbations exhibiting the observed features of the surge, e.g., terminal velocity, height, width, lifetime, and heated fine structures near its base.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing the Non-linear Interactions Between Tide, Storm Surge, and River Flow in the Delaware Bay Estuary, United States

Low-lying coastal areas in the mid-Atlantic region are prone to compound flooding resulting from the co-occurrence of river floods and coastal storm surges. To better understand the contribution of non-linear tide-surge-river interactions to compound flooding, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was applied to simulate coastal storm surge and flooding in the Delaware Bay Estuary in the United States. The model was validated with tide gauge data in the estuary for selected hurricane events. Non-linear interactions between tide-surge-river were investigated using a non-stationary tidal analysis method, which decomposes the interactions’ components at the frequency domain. Model results indicated that tide-river interactions damped semidiurnal tides, while the tide-surge interactions mainly influenced diurnal tides. Tide-river interactions suppressed the water level upstream while tide-surge interaction increased the water level downstream, which resulted in a transition zone of damping and enhancing effects where the tide-surge-river interaction was prominent. Evident compound flooding was observed as a result of non-linear tide-surge-river interactions. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was carried out to evaluate the effect of river flooding on the non-linear interactions. The transition zone of damping and enhancing effects shifted downstream as the river flow rate increased.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Surge-Energy and Overvoltage Ruggedness of P-Gate GaN HEMTs

An essential ruggedness of power devices is the capability of safely withstanding the surge energy. The surge ruggedness of the GaN high-electron-mobility transistor (HEMT), a power transistor with no or minimal avalanche capability, has not been fully understood. This article unveils the comprehensive physics associated with the surge-energy withstand process and the failure mechanisms of p-gate GaN HEMTs. Two commercial p-gate GaN HEMTs with Ohmic- and Schottky-type gate contacts are studied. Two circuits are developed to study the device surge ruggedness: an unclamped inductive switching circuit is first used to identify the withstand dynamics and failure mechanisms, and a clamped inductive switching circuit with a controllable parasitic inductance is then designed to mimic the surge energy in converter-like switching events. The p-gate GaN HEMT is found to withstand the surge energy through a resonant energy transfer between the device capacitance and the load/parasitic inductance rather than a resistive energy dissipation as occurred in the avalanche. If the device resonant voltage goes below zero, the device reversely turns on and the inductor is discharged. The device failure occurs at the transient of peak resonant voltage and is limited by the device overvoltage capability rather than the surge energy, dV/dt , or overvoltage duration. Almost no energy is dissipated in the resonant withstand process and the device failure is dominated by an electric field rather than a thermal runaway. Furthermore, these results provide critical understandings on the ruggedness of GaN HEMTs and important references for their qualifications and applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

3D-FE Modeling of 316 SS under Strain-Controlled Fatigue Loading and CFD Simulation of PWR Surge Line

In financial year 2017, we are focusing on developing a mechanistic fatigue model of surge line pipes for pressurized water reactors (PWRs). To that end, we plan to perform the following tasks: (1) conduct stress- and strain-controlled fatigue testing of surge-line base metal such as 316 stainless steel (SS) under constant, variable, and random fatigue loading, (2) develop cyclic plasticity material models of 316 SS, (3) develop one-dimensional (1D) analytical or closed-form model to validate the material models and to understand the mechanics associated with 316 SS cyclic hardening and/or softening, (4) develop three-dimensional (3D) finite element (FE) models with implementation of evolutionary cyclic plasticity, and (5) develop computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for thermal stratification, thermal-mechanical stress, and fatigue of example reactor components, such as a PWR surge line under plant heat-up, cool-down, and normal operation with/without grid-load-following. This semi-annual progress report presents the work completed on the above tasks for a 316 SS laboratory-scale specimen subjected to strain-controlled cyclic loading with constant, variable, and random amplitude. This is the first time that the accurate 3D-FE modeling of the specimen for its entire fatigue life, including the hardening and softening behavior, has been achieved. We anticipate that this work will pave the way for the development of a fully mechanistic-computer model that can be used for fatigue evaluation of safety-critical metallic components, which are traditionally evaluated by heavy reliance on time-consuming and costly test-based approaches. This basic research will not only help the nuclear reactor industry for fatigue evaluation of reactor components in a cost effective and less time-consuming way, but will also help other safety-related industries, such as aerospace, which is heavily dependent on test-based approaches, where a single full-scale fatigue test can cost millions of dollars and require years of effort to conduct. Toward our goal of demonstration of fully mechanistic fatigue evaluation of reactor components, we also started work on developing a component-level computer model of reactor components, such as 316 SS surge line pipe. This requires developing a thermal-mechanical stress analysis model of the reactor surge line, which, in turn, requires time-dependent temperature and stratification information along the boundary of the pipe. Toward that goal, CFD models of surge lines are being developed. In this report, we also present some preliminary results showing the temperature conditions along the surge line wall under reactor heat-up, cool-down, and steady-state power operation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2013

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks can be potentially exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise in the northern Gulf coast. An unstructured-grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase of semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a parameter “change of inundation depth” through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.

Yang, Zhaoqing↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Deterministic and Probabilistic Framework for Forecasting of Time-Series Damage States and Associated End-of-lIfe of a Pressurizer Water Reactor Surge Line under Design-Basis and Grid-Load-Following Loading Conditions

Argonne National Laboratory in support of the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. The present semi-annual report covers the period between May 2018 and September 2018. In this report, we present the work performed to further improve the capability for structural integrity prediction. Part of this work focused on validating a computational fluid dynamics model for modeling thermal stratification. We also present finite element (FE) model based thermal-mechanical stress analysis of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) surge line under grid-load-following loading condition. In addition, we present work related to end-of-life prediction of a PWR surge line based on ASME code and NUREG-6909 deterministic approaches under design-basis and grid-load-following conditions. Our research in this report period also majorly involved with the development of a strategy for probabilistic fatigue life estimation. First, we applied a Weibull probabilistic modeling approach based on end-of-life fatigue data (traditional S~N data under in-air and PWR water conditions) to estimate the probabilistic life for a given strain amplitude. Second, we developed a data analytics based Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) model for probabilistic modeling of time-series fatigue damage states and the associated probabilistic end-of-life of a component. Unlike the Weibull type approach, the MCMC type may not require a large number of fatigue tests for estimating the end-of-life for given loading and environmental conditions. We demonstrated the use of this framework through symmetric fatigue tests (stress- or strain-ontrolled tests either under in-air or PWR-water conditions) obtained from our earlier experiments. The MCMC model can use base time-series data either obtained from a model or fatigue experiment. Since experimental data are typically more accurate than model-calculated data, we used experiment-based time-series data to demonstrate the MCMC framework. However, when performing a complex experiment is not possible (due to time and costs involved), a model-based approach can be used to generate the time-series data. Similar model-based data are presented in our earlier report (e.g. for cyclic hardening damage states of a PWR surge line under constant amplitude and design-basis loading [1]). However, for the MCMC work in this report, we used experiment-based time-series damage states obtained from fatigue experiments under design-basis and grid-load-following loading conditions. The experimental loading inputs were based on thermal-mechanical FE model results of a typical PWR surge line. Then, we used the experimental time-series damage state data for forecasting the probabilistic time-series damage states and end-of-life of the PWR surge line. Based on this MCMC modeling strategy, and with the assumed loading, environment and thermal-mechanical boundary conditions, we have estimated that a 316SS-pure base metal PWR surge line would survive at least 159 years with zero failure probability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗