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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Assimilating partial observation to enhance feedback control of stochastic dynamical systems

Here, in this paper, we present a novel methodology to tackle feedback optimal control problems in scenarios where the exact state of the controlled process is unknown. It integrates data assimilation techniques and optimal control solvers to manage partial observation of the state process, a common occurrence in practical scenarios. Traditional stochastic optimal control methods assume full state observation, which is often not feasible in real-world fluid dynamics control problems. Our approach underscores the significance of utilizing observational data to inform control policy design. Specifically, we introduce a kernel learning backward stochastic differential equation (SDE) filter to enhance data assimilation efficiency and propose a sample-wise stochastic optimization method within the stochastic maximum principle framework. We demonstrate the efficacy and accuracy of our method in the control of advection-diffusion-reaction flow problem and the Dubins airplane maneuvering problem with model uncertainty.

data driven↗

DOE OSTI2025

Control-Affine Schrödinger Bridge and Generalized Bohm Potential

From a stochastic control perspective, the Schrödinger bridge is a density-valued continuous curve parameterized by time that connects a given pair of initial and terminal probability densities via minimum effort controlled Brownian motion. The control-affine Schrödinger bridge extends this idea to a generic control-affine Itô diffusion, possibly with an additive state cost. Here, in this letter, we recast the necessary conditions of optimality for the control-affine Schrödinger bridge problem as a two point boundary value problem for a quantum mechanical Schrödinger PDE with complex potential. This complex-valued potential is a generalization of the real-valued Bohm potential in quantum mechanics. Our derived potential is akin to the optical potential in nuclear physics where the real part of the potential encodes elastic scattering (transmission of wave function), and the imaginary part encodes inelastic scattering (absorption of wave function). The key takeaway is that the process noise that drives the evolution of probability densities induces an absorbing medium in the evolution of wave function. These results make new connections between control theory and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics through the lens of quantum mechanics.

Markov processes↗

DOE OSTI2026

Near-Optimal Performance of Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Here, this article presents a regret analysis for stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) in linear systems with quadratic performance index and additive and multiplicative uncertainties. Under a finite support assumption, the problem can be cast as a finite-dimensional quadratic program, but the problem becomes quickly intractable as the problem size grows exponentially in the horizon length. SMPC aims to compute approximate solutions by solving a sequence of problems with truncated prediction horizons and committing the solution in a receding-horizon fashion. Although this approach is widely used in practice, its performance relative to the optimal solution is not well understood. This article reports for the first time a rigorous near-optimal performance guarantee of SMPC: under stabilizability and detectability conditions, the regret of SMPC is exponentially small in the prediction horizon length, allowing SMPC to achieve near-optimal performance at a substantially reduced computational expense.

93E20, 93B45↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Adaptive Droop Control in Frequency Regulation of Power Systems With Intermittent Generators

Modern power systems (MPSs), including microgrids (MGs), are increasingly incorporating multiple renewable energy sources (RESs) such as wind and solar power, as well as battery storage and controllable loads. While environmentally beneficial, these sources pose challenges for control and management due to their intermittent and stochastic nature, especially in maintaining frequency stability with multiple interconnected generators of varying capacities. Traditional droop control methods are effective in systems with generators that are dispatchable and have fixed generation capacities, but they fall short when applied to systems with RESs, where generation capacities are dynamic and affected by unpredictable environmental conditions. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel stochastic adaptive droop control (SADC) method for load frequency control (LFC). The proposed method adapts droop coefficients in real time, based on the measured stochastic data of power generation capacities, enabling more effective frequency regulation in systems with variable and intermittent power generation. Unlike traditional adaptive control methods, which assume constant or slowly-varying system parameters, this approach accounts for stochastic processes by modeling them as Markov chains, enabling robust performance under highly dynamic and unpredictable conditions. The key contributions of this work include the development of real-time droop coefficient adaptation algorithms, derivation of their stability and convergence properties, and the demonstration of the advantages of the method through simulations. Case studies highlight the improved performance of frequency regulation, particularly in addressing the impact of stochastic weather conditions and the benefits of reducing dependence on battery reserves in dealing with intermittency of RESs. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical foundations of the method, as well as practical implementation insights for future power systems with high penetration of RESs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Model Predictive Control With Gaussian Wind Direction Preview for Wake Steering

This article addresses the problem of wake steering control for wind farms that explicitly consider the tradeoff between farm-level power generation and yaw duty cycle under variable and uncertain wind conditions. A novel stochastic model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is presented, which utilizes a stochastic model of the freestream wind field components in a receding horizon framework to compute optimal yaw set points that maximize the expected value of the farm power while constraining the yaw actuation. Different configurations of the algorithm are evaluated using a steady-state wind farm simulator. The proposed stochastic MPC algorithm can plan control actions over a future prediction horizon based on probabilistic estimates of the incoming wind magnitude and direction.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probability Density Function Control of Frequency Fluctuations in Renewable-Rich Power Systems

The stochastic nature of renewable energy sources (RESs) necessitates treating power system frequency response as a random process with a nonstationary probability density function (PDF). Here, based upon the stochastic distribution control theory originated by the second author, this paper proposes a novel stochastic controller to improve the frequency PDF in power grids when integrating a large amount of RESs, thereby minimizing the effects of uncertainties and enhancing overall system stability. The key idea is to manipulate the controllable power generation resources so that the frequency PDF is make to follow a target PDF by using the stochastic distribution control theory originated by the second author. The proposed method can easily be plugged into existing automatic generation controls for multi-area transmission grids. The proposed method is validated via a modified Kundar's two area system and 240-bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council systems. The simulation results show that the proposed control shapes the frequency PDF narrower and sharper, leading to a notable improvement toward minimizing the effects of randomness and uncertainty during grid operation.

frequency↗

DOE OSTI2026

Laboratory Evaluation of Federated, Hierarchical Controls for Distribution Power System Management: Preprint

The connection of more loads and distributed energy resources (DERs) to the distribution power system brings both challenges and opportunities to system operators. There are opportunities to aggregate flexible loads and DERs to provide transmission grid services, but the coordinated actions of DERs being managed by independent, third-party DER aggregators to support transmission system operations can present challenges. We developed a federated DER management architecture and control framework that aims to manage heterogeneous DERs to deliver reliable transmission grid services while respecting distribution system constraints. The controls include stochastic day-ahead optimization, model predictive control, and a simple real-time management scheme. We present simulation results obtained from a realistic laboratory test bed of federated controls managing DERs within a substation service area to make the substation net power follow the optimal net power determined by the day-ahead optimization based on cost and limiting reverse power flow.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurement and feedback-driven adaptive dynamics in the classical and quantum kicked top

In classical dynamical systems, stochastic feedback can stabilize otherwise unstable periodic orbits, giving rise to distinct controlled and uncontrolled phases as the rate of control application is varied. In this work, we apply these control protocols in classical, semiclassical, and quantum regimes to the kicked top, a paradigmatic model of quantum chaos. The quantum kicked top, modeled as the dynamics of a spin-S object, naturally interpolates between these regimes with the spin size S acting as an effective Planck constant. We show that the dynamics of the kicked top in classical, semiclassical, and fully quantum limits can all be controlled using stochastic feedback protocols. Comparing the full quantum dynamics to a truncated Wigner approximation that captures quantum noise but neglects interference beyond the Ehrenfest time, we find that low-moment observables are largely accounted for semiclassically, while the remaining discrepancy in higher moments is consistent with contributions from interference and possibly nonlinearities in rare trajectories that explore the compact phase space. We also find rapid purification in the numerics studied for all rates of control considered, suggesting that control quenches the top's ability to encode a qubit of quantum information even in the uncontrolled phase.

Prasad, Mahaveer [Tata Inst.; Singapore U. Tech. D↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive PID Gain Scheduling Control for Hydropower Turbine Using Neural CDE and Stochastic Distribution Shaping

This paper introduces a gain-scheduling PID controller design strategy for hydroturbine frequency control mode. This scheme first uses real data to learn the nonlinear dynamics of the hydroturbine using neural controlled differential equations and then perturbs the obtained nonlinear system at different equilibrium points, based on which a static output feedback adaptive dynamic programming algorithm is then used to optimize the PID gains for each equilibrium point. Moreover, a continuous-time version of stochastic distribution control is proposed to further fine-tune the optimized PID gains. Finally, the controller is obtained by implementing linear interpolation between the optimized PID control gains. The simulation results show that the proposed gain-scheduling PID controller can control a larger range of operation points compared with the given fixed PID controller and the baseline method. Compared with the given fixed PID controller, the proposed gain-scheduling PID controller can regulate hydroturbine frequency against disturbances induced by power-load variation with over 50% less overshoot for some operation points.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimisation of the Kaplan hydropower system via PID 2 and digital twin

Here, this paper proposes a proportional–integral-double–derivative (PID 2 ) optimisation method for the Kaplan hydropower system by building a digital twin. The study first uses one multilayer perceptron (MLP) to model the hydroturbine dynamic and then adopts three connected MLPs to model the generator dynamic, both in an open-loop fashion. Inspired by stochastic distribution control (SDC) theory, we regard the training of the turbine's neural network model as a process control problem, and we propose minimising entropy loss to update the network parameters. The next step is to build the digital twin by connecting the neural network models with a PID 2 controller and a lead-lag exciter and run the whole model in a closed-loop fashion. After that, a binary search approach is applied to optimise the PID 2 parameters based on the obtained digital twin model. The simulation results show that the proposed method can reduce the mean square tracking error by more than 90%. Furthermore, the method is extended to jointly optimise the PID 2 controller and excitation system gains through multiobjective optimisation, leveraging Pareto frontier analysis to balance active power and voltage tracking performance. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving a 83.46% reduction in relative mean square error of active power, a 47.13% reduction in terminal voltage tracking error, and an 82.78% improvement in the overall scalarized objective.

Hydropower system↗

DOE OSTI2024

Convergence Analysis for an Online Data-Driven Feedback Control Algorithm

This paper presents convergence analysis of a novel data-driven feedback control algorithm designed for generating online controls based on partial noisy observational data. The algorithm comprises a particle filter-enabled state estimation component, estimating the controlled system’s state via indirect observations, alongside an efficient stochastic maximum principle-type optimal control solver. By integrating weak convergence techniques for the particle filter with convergence analysis for the stochastic maximum principle control solver, we derive a weak convergence result for the optimization procedure in search of optimal data-driven feedback control. Numerical experiments are performed to validate the theoretical findings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A New Simple-to-Configure Self-Perturbing Multivariable Extremum-Seeking Controller

This paper presents a new stochastic relay-based extremum-seeking controller (ESC) for multi-input-single-output (MISO) systems. The algorithm was developed with the goal of simplifying configuration to enable easier deployment to real-world problems. A solution is developed first for a static map and then adapted for a general class of dynamic systems. The number of configurable parameters is one per input channel for the static case and only one additional parameter is needed for the dynamic version. The problem of gradient identifiability is solved via the use of stochastic relay gains and a simple stability proof for the static case is presented. Simulation tests demonstrate the performance of the strategy for optimizing both static and dynamic systems.

Salsbury, Timothy [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Introduction to the Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Management Solutions (FAST-DERMS)

Deployment and capability of distributed energy resources (DER) in power systems is growing rapidly. These resources present an opportunity for low-cost provision of energy and grid services. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission recently provided rulings to enable market participation of these distribution-connected resources, but the prevailing strategies for their management may not scale well to meet future needs. This paper introduces the Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Management Solutions (FAST-DERMS) which was designed to address this need. In it we describe the architectural features of the approach, and a reference controls implementation employing a hierarchical coordination that includes stochastic optimization, model predictive control, and a simple real-time management scheme. Sample results from simulation show firm transmission-level service provision measured at the distribution substation.

grid architecture↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Introduction to the Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Management Solutions (FAST-DERMS): Preprint

Deployment and capability of distributed energy resources (DER) in power systems is growing rapidly. These resources present an opportunity for low-cost provision of energy and grid services. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission recently provided rulings to enable market participation of these distribution-connected resources, but the prevailing strategies for their management may not scale well to meet future needs. This paper introduces the Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Management Solutions (FASTDERMS) which was designed to address this need. In it we describe the architectural features of the approach, and a reference controls implementation employing a hierarchical coordination that includes stochastic optimization, model predictive control, and a simple real-time management scheme. Sample results from simulation show firm transmission-level service provision measured at the distribution substation.

DERMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Binary Quantum Control Optimization with Uncertain Hamiltonians

Optimizing the controls of quantum systems plays a crucial role in advancing quantum technologies. The time-varying noises in quantum systems and the widespread use of inhomogeneous quantum ensembles raise the need for high-quality quantum controls under uncertainties. In this paper, we consider a stochastic discrete optimization formulation of a discretized binary optimal quantum control problem involving Hamiltonians with predictable uncertainties. We propose a sample-based reformulation that optimizes both risk-neutral and risk-averse measurements of control policies, and solve these with two gradient-based algorithms using sum-up-rounding approaches. Furthermore, we discuss the differentiability of the objective function and prove upper bounds of the gaps between the optimal solutions to binary control problems and their continuous relaxations. We conduct numerical simulations on various sized problem instances based on two applications of quantum pulse optimization; we evaluate different strategies to mitigate the impact of uncertainties in quantum systems. In conclusion, we demonstrate that the controls of our stochastic optimization model achieve significantly higher quality and robustness compared with the controls of a deterministic model.

conditional value-at-risk (CVaR)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Derivative-free stochastic optimization via adaptive sampling strategies

In this paper, we present a novel derivative-free framework for solving unconstrained stochastic optimization problems. Many problems in fields ranging from simulation optimization to reinforcement learning to quantum computing involve settings where only stochastic function values are obtained via a zeroth-order oracle, which has no available gradient information and necessitates the usage of derivative-free optimization methodologies. Our approach includes estimating gradients using stochastic function evaluations and integrating adaptive sampling techniques to control the accuracy in these stochastic approximations. Our framework encapsulates several gradient estimation techniques, including standard finite-difference, Gaussian smoothing, sphere smoothing, randomized coordinate finite-difference, and randomized subspace finite-difference methods. We provide theoretical convergence guarantees for our framework and analyze the worst-case iteration and sample complexities associated with each gradient estimation method. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical performance of the methods on logistic regression and nonlinear least squares problems.

Adaptive sampling↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Predictive Deep-Reinforcement-Learning-Based Connected Automated Vehicle Anticipatory Longitudinal Control in a Mixed Traffic Lane Change Condition

Maintaining safety and efficiency for mixed traffic consisting of connected automated vehicles (CAVs) and human-driven vehicles (HDVs) is an arduous task due to the inherent HDVs’ stochasticity. Especially for longitudinal control, which is the basic function of vehicle automation, prevailing research primarily considers CAV’s car-following control merely the acceleration and deceleration of leading vehicles. However, this approach overlooks the potential disruptions caused by surrounding vehicles executing lane changes, which can significantly impact the control vehicle’s stability and overall safety. Hence, our study introduces a predictive deep reinforcement learning (DRL) longitudinal CAV controller. This innovative approach leverages prediction from a physics-informed neural network as well as the control capability of DRL to better anticipate and mitigate issues arising from lane-changing, enhancing the safety and efficiency of CAVs in such scenarios. Finally, validated by the numerical simulations embedded with the real-world data, the results indicate that the proposed controller significantly enhances the safety and efficiency of CAVs in situations involving lane changes by other vehicles, showcasing its potential as a valuable tool in advancing CAV technology in mixed traffic.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗