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Subtropical Eastern North Pacific SST bias in earth system models

Karthik Balaguru (PNNL), Luke Van Roekel (LLNL), L. Ruby Leung (PNNL) and Milena Veneziani (LLNL) Abstract: This study systematically evaluates the warm SST bias in the Subtropical Eastern North Pacific (SENP), a problem plaguing most CMIP6 models, using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SM). Compared to the model at its standard resolution (1o atmosphere, 30-60 km ocean), the SST bias improves in several regions at high resolution (0.25o atmosphere, 18-6 km ocean) except in subtropical eastern boundary regions, such as the SENP. A mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals that errors in the surface radiative fluxes and horizontal heat advection are primarily responsible for the bias. Analysis of HighResMIP models indicates that the lack of improvement in the SENP SST bias with resolution is not native to E3SM alone. A larger CMIP6 inter-model correlation of SST bias with biases in surface winds than radiation highlights the important role of large-scale circulation biases in the SENP SST bias in coupled models.

Balaguru, Karthik↗

Winter precipitation changes in California under global warming: Contributions of CO2, uniform SST warming, and SST change patterns

Climate models project a wetting winter over California, distinct from the drying in all other Mediterranean climate regions under warming. Dynamic effect via an eastward extension of the westerly jet stream over the North Pacific is the root cause for the wetting California. Utilizing four sets of prescribed-SST (sea surface temperature) simulations, the relative effects of direct CO2 radiative forcing, uniform SST warming, and SST change pattern are investigated. The wetting winter is dominated by uniform SST warming mainly through its effect on the jet extension. As a fundamental response to the enhanced upper-tropospheric warming in the tropics, the jet extension in coupled simulations is well reproduced under uniform SST warming and robust among models. An El Niño-like SST warming pattern has a secondary contribution to the jet extension via atmospheric teleconnection, but with large inter-model spread. Relative to the SST forcing, the direct CO2 radiative effect is negligible.

Dong, Lu↗

SST-GPU: A Scalable SST GPU Component for Performance Modeling and Profiling

Programmable accelerators have become commonplace in modern computing systems. Advances in programming models and the availability of unprecedented amounts of data have created a space for massively parallel accelerators capable of maintaining context for thousands of concurrent threads resident on-chip. These threads are grouped and interleaved on a cycle-by-cycle basis among several massively parallel computing cores. One path for the design of future supercomputers relies on an ability to model the performance of these massively parallel cores at scale. The SST framework has been proven to scale up to run simulations containing tens of thousands of nodes. A previous report described the initial integration of the open-source, execution-driven GPU simulator, GPGPU-Sim, into the SST framework. This report discusses the results of the integration and how to use the new GPU component in SST. It also provides examples of what it can be used to analyze and a correlation study showing how closely the execution matches that of a Nvidia V100 GPU when running kernels and mini-apps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SST-TG-P1F4R3200: Decaying Stably-Stratified Turbulence (SST), Initialized Using Taylor-Green Vortices (TG) at Prandtl Number Pr=1, Froude Number Fr=4, Reynolds Number Re=3200

This dataset comprises direct numerical simulations (DNS) of decaying stably-stratified turbulence influenced by a linear background density gradient, initialized using an array of Taylor-Green vortices, as described in [Riley & de Bruyn Kops (2003)](https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1578077). The initial Prandtl, Froude, and Reynolds numbers are (Pr, Fr, Re) = (1, 4, 3200). A total of 15,000 snapshots are recorded at uniform time intervals, each with a spatial resolution of 512x512x256 grid points. Four flow variables are associated with each snapshot: the three velocity components (u,v,w) and the perturbed density field (rho) away from the background gradient. All fields are stored in binary format (32-bit little-endian), each with a size of 255 MB, yielding a total dataset size of 15.3 TB. Further details are referenced in the attached README file, and a current list of publications and associated analysis tools are provided at https://stratified-turbulence.github.io/web/.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SST-TG-P50F4R3200: Decaying Stably-Stratified Turbulence (SST), Initialized Using Taylor-Green Vortices (TG) at Prandtl Number Pr=50, Froude Number Fr=4, Reynolds Number Re=3200

This dataset comprises direct numerical simulations (DNS) of decaying stably-stratified turbulence influenced by a linear background density gradient, initialized using an array of Taylor-Green vortices, extending the Pr=1 simulations performed in [Riley and de Bruyn Kops (2003)](https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1578077). The initial Prandtl, Froude, and Reynolds numbers are (Pr, Fr, Re) = (50, 4, 3200). A total of 1,680 snapshots are recorded at uniform time intervals, each with a spatial resolution of 3584x3584x1792 grid points. Four flow variables are associated with each snapshot: the three velocity components (u,v,w) and the perturbed density field (rho) away from the background gradient. All fields are stored in binary format (32-bit little-endian), each with a size of 85.8 GB, yielding a total dataset size of 577 TB. Further details are referenced in the attached README file, and a current list of publications and associated analysis tools are provided at https://stratified-turbulence.github.io/web/.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SST-TG-P7F4R3200: Decaying Stably-Stratified Turbulence (SST), Initialized Using Taylor-Green Vortices (TG) at Prandtl Number Pr=7, Froude Number Fr=4, Reynolds Number Re=3200

This dataset comprises direct numerical simulations (DNS) of decaying stably-stratified turbulence influenced by a linear background density gradient, initialized using an array of Taylor-Green vortices, extending the Pr=1 simulations performed in [Riley and de Bruyn Kops (2003)](https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1578077). The initial Prandtl, Froude, and Reynolds numbers are (Pr, Fr, Re) = (7, 4, 3200). A total of 15,250 snapshots are recorded at uniform time intervals, each with a spatial resolution of 1280x1280x640 grid points. Four flow variables are associated with each snapshot: the three velocity components (u,v,w) and the perturbed density field (rho) away from the background gradient. All fields are stored in binary format (32-bit little-endian), each with a size of 4 GB, yielding a total dataset size of 244 TB. Further details are referenced in the attached README file, and a current list of publications and associated analysis tools are provided at https://stratified-turbulence.github.io/web/.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Aqua-planet Experiment (APE): Response to Changed Meridional SST Profile

This paper explores the sensitivity of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations to changes in the meridional distribution of sea surface temperature (SST). The simulations are for an aqua-planet, a water covered Earth with no land, orography or sea- ice and with specified zonally symmetric SST. Simulations from 14 AGCMs developed for Numerical Weather Prediction and climate applications are compared. Four experiments are performed to study the sensitivity to the meridional SST profile. These profiles range from one in which the SST gradient continues to the equator to one which is flat approaching the equator, all with the same maximum SST at the equator. The zonal mean circulation of all models shows strong sensitivity to latitudinal distribution of SST. The Hadley circulation weakens and shifts poleward as the SST profile flattens in the tropics. One question of interest is the formation of a double versus a single ITCZ. There is a large variation between models of the strength of the ITCZ and where in the SST experiment sequence they transition from a single to double ITCZ. The SST profiles are defined such that as the equatorial SST gradient flattens, the maximum gradient increases and moves poleward. This leads to a weakening of the mid-latitude jet accompanied by a poleward shift of the jet core. Also considered are tropical wave activity and tropical precipitation frequency distributions. The details of each vary greatly between models, both with a given SST and in the response to the change in SST. One additional experiment is included to examine the sensitivity to an off-equatorial SST maximum. The upward branch of the Hadley circulation follows the SST maximum off the equator. The models that form a single precipitation maximum when the maximum SST is on the equator shift the precipitation maximum off equator and keep it centered over the SST maximum. Those that form a double with minimum on the equatorial maximum SST shift the double structure off the equator, keeping the minimum over the maximum SST. In both situations only modest changes appear in the shifted profile of zonal average precipitation. When the upward branch of the Hadley circulation moves into the hemisphere with SST maximum, the zonal average zonal, meridional and vertical winds all indicate that the Hadley cell in the other hemisphere dominates.

AGCM↗

Forced and Unforced Decadal Behavior of the Interhemispheric SST Contrast during the Instrumental Period (1881–2012): Contextualizing the Late 1960s–Early 1970s Shift

The sea surface temperature (SST) contrast between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) influences the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the intensity of the monsoon systems. This study examines the contributions of external forcing and unforced internal variability to the interhemispheric SST contrast in HadSST3 and ERSSTv5 observations, and 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from 1881 to 2012. Using multimodel mean fingerprints, a significant influence of anthropogenic, but not natural, forcing is detected in the interhemispheric SST contrast, with the observed response larger than that of the model mean in ERSSTv5. The forced response consists of asymmetric NH–SH SST cooling from the mid-twentieth century to around 1980, followed by opposite NH–SH SST warming. The remaining best-estimate residual or unforced component is marked by NH–SH SST maxima in the 1930s and mid-1960s, and a rapid NH–SH SST decrease around 1970. Examination of decadal shifts in the observed interhemispheric SST contrast highlights the shift around 1970 as the most prominent from 1881 to 2012. Both NH and SH SST variability contributed to the shift, which appears not to be attributable to external forcings. Most models examined fail to capture such large-magnitude shifts in their control simulations, although some models with high interhemispheric SST variability are able to produce them. Large-magnitude shifts produced by the control simulations feature disparate spatial SST patterns, some of which are consistent with changes typically associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the oceanic origin for the enhanced seasonal cycle of SST in the midlatitudes under global warming

Climate models project an enhancement in SST seasonal cycle over the midlatitude oceans under global warming. However, the maintaining mechanism for this enhancement is still under debate. This study investigates the SST seasonal cycle enhancement under quadrupling CO2 using a set of partially coupled experiments, in which the contribution from direct CO2 forcing (without the effect of wind changes) and wind effects can be isolated. Results indicate that both the direct CO2 and total wind effects contribute to the enhancement in the SST seasonal cycle, with the former (latter) effect being more important in the Northern Hemisphere (Southern Hemisphere). Further decomposition of the wind effect into the wind stress feedback and wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback through the change of wind speed reveals the importance of the wind stress-driven ocean response in the change of SST seasonal cycle, a result in contrast to a previous study that ascribed the midlatitude SST seasonal cycle change to the thermodynamic WES feedback. The direct CO2 effect regulates SST seasonal cycle mainly through the mediating effects of the ocean mixed layer depth (MLD): i) the CO2 induced warming leads to MLD shoaling, thus reducing its effective heat capacity; ii) the climatological MLD is greater in winter than summer, given the same amount of energy flux from the surface, SST warming in winter should be smaller. Notably, the surface wind seasonal cycle change due solely to the direct CO2 effect is found to bear a great resemblance to the full wind response, implicating that the direct CO2 effect is the root source for the enhancement of the midlatitude SST seasonal cycle. This is further supported by an ocean-alone experiment that replicates the SST seasonal cycle enhancement under a spatially and temporally homogeneous surface thermal forcing into the ocean.

Liu, Fukai↗

Combined MODIS/AMSR-E SST Composites for Regional Weather Applications

Recent applications of a high resolution MODlS composite SST product have clearly shown the importance of developing high-resolution SST data sets for coastal applications and modeling. In general, coupling between the oceans and atmospheres has been closely linked to SST gradients and fronts, indicating a need for high resolution SSTs, specifically in the areas of large gradients associated with coastal regions. Thus an accurate determination of SST gradients has become critical for determining the appropriate air-sea coupling and the influence on ocean modeling. Recent research is focused on improving the accuracy and spatial coverage of the current operational MODIS SST composite product provided by the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) project and distributed to the community. GHRSST-PP MODlS data and microwave AMSR-E data are being combined to produce composite data sets for both the West Coast and East Coast of the United States, including the Gulf of Mexico. The use of 1 km MODIS data has explicit advantages over other SST products including its global coverage and high resolution. The AMSR-E data will reduce the latency of the composites. A strategy for utilizing the error characteristics contained in the GHRSST data has been developed. This strategy will include using the error characteristics directly to calculate weights in the SST composites, uncertainty maps based on the composite biases and RMS errors, and latency products calculated in the compositing process. Recent accomplishments include the development of an enhanced compositing approach based on the error-weighted combination of recent clear MODIS SST values, where the error contributions come from measurement error, potential cloud contamination, and data latency sources. Future plans call for the inclusion of AMSR-E SST values with appropriate weights based upon measurement accuracy, MODIS-AMSR-E SST bias, and latency.

Jedlovec, Gary↗

Impact of High Resolution SST Data on Regional Weather Forecasts

Past studies have shown that the use of coarse resolution SST products such as from the real-time global (RTG) SST analysis[1] or other coarse resolution once-a-day products do not properly portray the diurnal variability of fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean that drive the formation of low level clouds and precipitation over the ocean. For example, the use of high resolution MODIS SST composite [2] to initialize the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) (ARW) [3] has been shown to improve the prediction of sensible weather parameters in coastal regions [4][5}. In an extend study, [6] compared the MODIS SST composite product to the RTG SST analysis and evaluated forecast differences for a 6 month period from March through August 2007 over the Florida coastal regions. In a comparison to buoy data, they found that that the MODIS SST composites reduced the bias and standard deviation over that of the RTG data. These improvements led to significant changes in the initial and forecasted heat fluxes and the resulting surface temperature fields, wind patterns, and cloud distributions. They also showed that the MODIS composite SST product, produced for the Terra and Aqua satellite overpass times, captured a component of the diurnal cycle in SSTs not represented in the RTG or other one-a-day SST analyses. Failure to properly incorporate these effects in the WRF initialization cycle led to temperature biases in the resulting short term forecasts. The forecast impact was limited in some situations however, due to composite product inaccuracies brought about by data latency during periods of long-term cloud cover. This paper focuses on the forecast impact of an enhanced MODIS/AMSR-E composite SST product designed to reduce inaccuracies due data latency in the MODIS only composite product.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

SST Improvements in the NASA GMAO Weather Analysis and Prediction System

It is well known that the sea surface temperature (SST) exhibits a diurnal cycle. Since January 2017, the NASA GMAO's Weather Analysis & Prediction System (https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/weather_prediction/) includes a model for this diurnal cycle, a cool-skin layer and assimilates for skin SST. Data assimilation for the skin SST is carried out along with the 3-D state of the atmosphere, primarily using infrared radiance measurements, that are sensitive to the cool-skin and diurnal warming. In the context of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), this implies that the skin SST from our system is tightly coupled to the overlaying atmosphere and constrained by all the available atmospheric and surface-sensitive observations (in situ and satellite brightness temperatures). Comparisons of the SST diurnal cycle with other SST retrievals (SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible & InfraRed Imager) and AMSR-2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2)) has shown mostly similar diurnal variation, however, the former decays at a faster rate. This poster presents our SST plus atmosphere assimilation methodology, and recent improvements to the skin SST model to address the known issues. Global, hourly estimates of the cool-skin and diurnal warm layer fields would be of interest to the SST retrieval community.

Akella, Santha↗

Evaluating Models' Response of Tropical Low Clouds to SST Forcings Using CALIPSO Observations

Recent studies have shown that, in response to a surface warming, the marine tropical low-cloud cover (LCC) as observed by passive-sensor satellites substantially decreases, therefore generating a smaller negative value of the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) cloud radiative effect (CRE). Here we study the LCC and CRE interannual changes in response to sea surface temperature (SST) forcings in the GISS model E2 climate model, a developmental version of the GISS model E3 climate model, and in 12 other climate models, as a function of their ability to represent the vertical structure of the cloud response to SST change against 10 years of CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) observations. The more realistic models (those that satisfy the observational constraint) capture the observed interannual LCC change quite well ([delta]LCC]/[delta]SST= -3.49±1.01%K [negative 1 superscript] vs. [delta]LCC/[delta]SST[subscript obs]= -3.59±0.28%K[negative 1 superscript]) while the others largely underestimate it ([delta]LCC/[delta]SST= -1.32±1.28%K[negative 1 superscript]). Consequently, the more realistic models simulate more positive shortwave (SW) feedback ([delta]CRE/[delta]SST=2.60±1.13Wm[negative 2 superscript] K[negative 1 superscript]) than the less realistic models (CRE/SST=0.87±2.63Wm2K1), in better agreement with the observations ([delta]CRE/[delta]SST[subscript obs]=3±0.26Wm[negative 2 superscript] K[negative 1 superscript] ), although slightly underestimated. The ability of the models to represent moist processes within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and produce persistent stratocumulus (Sc) decks appears crucial to replicating the observed relationship between clouds, radiation and surface temperature. This relationship is different depending on the type of low clouds in the observations. Over stratocumulus regions, cloud-top height increases slightly with SST, accompanied by a large decrease in cloud fraction, whereas over trade cumulus (Cu) regions, cloud fraction decreases everywhere, to a smaller extent.

low clouds↗

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Diurnal Cycles in SST: Coupled Data Assimilation and Future Observational Requirements

Most operational centers are developing coupled (atmosphere-ocean) data assimilation systems as an alternative to uncoupled counterparts (atmosphere- or ocean-only). The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is one of the key variables that tightly connects the atmosphere and ocean states and also air-sea fluxes. However, current prototype coupled data assimilation systems rely on external (L4) gridded SST or along-track (L3 or L2) SST retrievals as observed data or relaxation field. But in reality, SST are measurements are available from sparse in-situ network of ships, moorings, and buoys; all of them combined together are far less than those from satellites. However, satellites do not directly measure temperature, and inferring SST from satellite measured radiances requires a radiative transfer model, its calibration and also bias correction.The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is developing a coupled data assimilation system which assimilates SST directly from the raw observations, i.e., satellite radiances and in-situ observations. The methodology to directly assimilate radiances for SST became operational in Jan, 2017 in the GMAO's near-real time Weather Analysis and Prediction System. There were many modifications to the GMAO system in order to implement SST assimilation, most of which generally improved the predictability of the system. In order to maintain and further improve this system, we advocate for the availability of a microwave satellite radiometer in future beyond the currently operational GPM- GMI and AMSR-2 missions. For improved modeling of the near-surface temperature, salinity and mixing processes, we suggest adding more than one temperature sensor and salinity sensors to the drifting buoy network.

Akella, Santha↗