Reducing uncertainties in bolide and space debris detection: The role of entry geometry in infrasound analysis
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Silber, Elizabeth Allaryce [Sandia National Labora↗
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Entry geometry effects on infrasound detection of meteoroids and space debris
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Silber, Elizabeth Allaryce [Sandia National Labora↗
Entry-geometry effects on infrasound detection of meteoroids and space debris
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Silber, Elizabeth Allaryce [Sandia National Labora↗
Seismic Recovery of Acoustic Source Height During the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Re-Entry
Controlled hypersonic reentries with well‐constrained trajectories are exceedingly rare, yet they provide valuable reference cases for validating geophysical source characterization methods applicable to bolides and space debris. The 24 September 2023 re‐entry of the OSIRIS‐REx Sample Return Capsule, the first interplanetary capsule to return over the contiguous United States in nearly two decades, presented such an opportunity. Here, we present seismic observations of this event recorded at 16 stations across three sites at ground distances of 7–20 km from the trajectory. Using eigenray tracing through ground‐to‐space atmospheric specifications, we invert picked acoustic‐to‐seismic travel times for effective shock‐generated acoustic source altitudes along the known trajectory. The method recovers source heights of 57.9–59.5 km with travel‐time residuals <1 s across all stations. The seismic‐derived source heights, when compared at their along‐track positions, fall within the range of previously published infrasound‐derived heights for the corresponding trajectory segment, with intermethod differences comparable with the timing‐based uncertainty. These results suggest that air‐to‐ground coupling does not introduce a resolvable systematic timing bias in the picked near‐field seismic arrivals, supporting seismic observations as a complementary tool for altitude estimation of bolides, re‐entry vehicles, and other hypersonic atmospheric sources.
Silber, Elizabeth Allaryce [Sandia National Labora↗
Investigating the Relationship Between Bolide Entry Angle and Apparent Direction of Infrasound Signal Arrivals
Infrasound sensing offers critical capabilities for detecting and geolocating bolide events globally. However, the observed back azimuths, directions from which infrasound signals arrive at stations, often differ from the theoretical expectations based on the bolide’s peak brightness location. For objects with shallow entry angles, which traverse longer atmospheric paths, acoustic energy may be emitted from multiple points along the trajectory, leading to substantial variability in back azimuth residuals. This study investigates how the entry angle of energetic bolides affects the back azimuth deviations, independent of extrinsic factors such as atmospheric propagation, station noise, and signal processing methodologies. A theoretical framework, the Bolide Infrasound Back-Azimuth EXplorer Model (BIBEX-M), was developed to compute predicted back azimuths solely from geometric considerations. The model quantifies how these residuals vary as a function of source-to-receiver distance, revealing that bolides entering at shallow angles, e.g., 10°, can produce average residuals of 20°, with deviations reaching up to 46° at distances below 1000 km, and remaining significant even at 5000 km (up to 8°). In contrast, bolides with steeper entry angles, e.g., > 60°, show smaller deviations, typically under 5° at 1000 km and diminishing to less than ~1° beyond 5000 km. These findings attest to the need for careful interpretation when evaluating signal detections and estimating bolide locations. This work is not only pertinent to bolides but also to other high-energy, extended-duration atmospheric phenomena such as space debris and reentry events, where similar geometric considerations can influence infrasound arrival directions.
Acoustics↗
Multi-arrival infrasound from meteoroids: Fragmentation signatures versus propagation effects in a fine-scale layered atmosphere
Infrasonic signatures of meteoroid fragmentation are frequently ambiguous: do multiple arrivals signify a complex breakup or merely the distorting effects of a layered atmosphere? Resolving this ambiguity is critical for accurate energy estimates and source reconstruction. In this study, we address this challenge by analyzing a unique regional dataset of well-constrained meteoroid events observed by the Southern Ontario Meteor Network and the co-located Elginfield Infrasound Array. We employ pseudo-differential parabolic equation (PPE) simulations to quantify how fine-scale gravity-wave structures in the stratosphere and lower thermosphere modify acoustic waveforms at ranges <300 km. Our modeling reveals that while fine-scale layering can stretch signals and generate diffuse oscillatory tails, it does not produce discrete, high-amplitude pulse splitting at ranges below ∼140 km. By applying these results to the rare multi-arrival event 20060305, we demonstrate that its distinct double arrival at 100 km range is inconsistent with atmospheric multipathing and provides definitive evidence of separate fragmentation episodes. These findings establish new diagnostic criteria for separating source physics from propagation artifacts, improving the reliability of infrasound as a monitoring tool for natural bolides, space debris re-entries, and catastrophic launch failures.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Signatures of linearized gravity in atom interferometers: A simplified computational framework
We develop a general framework for calculating the leading-order, general relativistic contributions to the gravitational phase shift in single-photon atom interferometers within the context of linearized gravity. We show that the atom gradiometer observable, which only depends on the atom interferometer propagation phase, can be written in terms of three distinct contributions: the Doppler phase shift, which accounts for the tidal displacement of atoms along the baseline, the Shapiro phase shift, which accounts for the delay in the arrival time of photons at atom-light interaction points, and the Einstein phase shift, which accounts for the gravitational redshift measured by the atoms. For specific atom gradiometer configurations, we derive the signal and response functions for two physically motivated scenarios: (i) transient gravitational waves in the transverse-traceless gauge and, for the first time, in the proper detector frame, and (ii) transient massive objects sourcing weak and slow-varying Newtonian potentials. Here, we find that the Doppler contribution of realistic Newtonian noise sources (e.g., a freight truck or a piece of space debris) at proposed atom gradiometer experiments, such as AION, MAGIS, and AEDGE, can exceed the shot noise level and thus affect physics searches if not properly subtracted. Note: 44 pages including appendices, 4 figures; v2: different formatting, fixed typos, 28 pages including appendices, 5 figures, agrees with published version
Atom interferometry↗
Along-Trajectory Acoustic Signal Variations Observed During the Hypersonic Re-Entry of the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule
The re-entry of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) sample return capsule (SRC) on 24 September 2023 presented a rare opportunity to study atmospheric entry dynamics through a dense network of ground-based infrasound sensors. As the first interplanetary capsule to re-enter over the United States since Stardust in 2006, this event allowed for unprecedented observations of infrasound signals generated during hypersonic descent. We deployed 39 single-sensor stations across Nevada and Utah, strategically distributed to capture signals from distinct trajectory points. Infrasound data were analyzed to examine how signal amplitude and period vary with altitude and propagation path for a nonablating hypersonic object with well-defined physical and aerodynamic properties. Raytracing simulations incorporated atmospheric specifications from the ground-2-space model to estimate source altitudes for observed signals. Results confirmed ballistic arrivals at all stations, with source altitudes ranging from 44 to 62 km along the trajectory. Signal period and amplitude exhibited strong dependence on source altitude, with higher altitudes corresponding to lower amplitudes, longer periods, and reduced high-frequency content. Regression analysis demonstrated strong correlations between signal characteristics and both altitude and propagation geometry. Our results suggest, when attenuation is considered, the amplitude is primarily determined by the source, with the propagation path playing a secondary role over the distances examined. These findings emphasize the utility of controlled SRC re-entries for advancing our understanding of natural meteoroid dynamics, refining atmospheric entry models, and improving methodologies for planetary defense. The OSIRIS-REx SRC campaign represents the most comprehensive infrasound study of a hypersonic re-entry to date, showcasing the potential of coordinated geophysical observational networks for high-energy atmospheric phenomena, including space debris re-entries.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Perspectives and Challenges in Bolide Infrasound Processing and Interpretation: A Focused Review with Case Studies
Infrasound sensing plays a critical role in the detection and analysis of bolides, offering passive, cost-effective global monitoring capabilities. Key objectives include determining the timing, location, and yield of these events. Achieving these goals requires a robust approach to detect, analyze, and interpret rapidly moving elevated sources such as bolides (also re-entry). In light of advancements in infrasonic methodologies, there is a need for a comprehensive overview of the characteristics that distinguish bolides from other infrasound sources and methodologies for bolide infrasound analysis. This paper provides a focused review of key considerations and presents a unified framework to enhance infrasound processing approaches specifically tailored for bolides. Three representative case studies are presented to demonstrate the practical application of infrasound processing methodologies and deriving source parameters while exploring challenges associated with bolide-generated infrasound. These case studies underscore the effectiveness of infrasound in determining source parameters and highlight interpretative challenges, such as variations in signal period measurements across different studies. Future research should place emphasis on improving geolocation and yield accuracy. This can be achieved through rigorous and systematic analyses of large, statistically significant samples of such events, aiming to resolve interpretative inconsistencies and explore the causes for variability in signal periods and back azimuths. The topic described here is also relevant to space exploration involving planetary bodies with atmospheres, such as Venus, Mars, and Titan.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Multi‐Sensor Trajectory Reconstruction of the 24 April 2025 Alaska Fireball and Implications for Planetary Defense
On 24 April 2025 at 18:30:57 UTC, a bright daytime fireball over Southcentral Alaska was detected by 37 seismic stations, 16 single infrasound sensors, and four infrasound arrays, yielding 30 ballistic and multiple fragmentation arrivals. Here, the unprecedented density of seismoacoustic coverage enabled detailed reconstruction of the event using acoustic signals, with fragmentation source locations further guiding the identification of Doppler weather radar signatures of a meteorite fall. Incorporation of a radar-derived terminal point yielded a final trajectory solution, which agreed closely with an independent optical trajectory solution from video analysis. The reconstructed entry parameters from seismoacoustic analysis indicate a velocity of 25.3 km/s, an entry angle of 19°, and an energy release of ∼38 t TNT equivalent. Assuming a chondritic composition, the pre-entry object diameter was ∼0.7 m. Using orbital parameters from the optical solution, we estimate meteoroid composition as most likely an L-type ordinary chondrite. The event occurred in the sub-Arctic, where space-based optical systems face challenges in detection, demonstrating the critical role of dense ground-based seismoacoustic networks in characterizing high-latitude atmospheric entries. This uniquely well-recorded event demonstrates the capability of dense seismoacoustic networks to constrain bolide trajectories, energetics, and fragmentation, with radar and optical data providing critical confirmation and complementary perspectives. These results bridge the methodological gap between planetary-defense monitoring of natural impactors and space-traffic analyses of artificial reentries, illustrating how multi-sensor integration can deliver calibration-grade trajectories even for unpredicted events.
Fireball↗
Orbital Debris IC Report
We started a simulation campaign in support of our ongoing plasma signatures of small orbital debris project SINTRA program funded by IARPA. This project aims to identify plasma signatures generated by the interaction of small orbital debris (>10cm) with space plasma that can be used for detection, tracking and eventually, develop technologies to remove these small but lethal objects. The small orbital debris problem is increasing exponentially threaten the current and future use of space.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
LANL Plasma Modeling Highlights
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70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Experiments and Simulations of the Dusty Properties of Hypervelocity Impact Plasmas
Hypervelocity impacts, referring to impacts occurring at several times the speed of sound in the target, result in inertial stresses greatly exceeding the material strength and produce behavior that is not fully understood. These impact phenomena are seen in space through impacts of orbital debris and meteoroids on spacecraft and airless natural bodies but can also be produced in laboratory environments using light-gas guns and electrostatic dust accelerators. When a hypervelocity impact occurs, plasma is generated both from thermal ionization and from pressure ionization, producing a wide range of plasma densities depending on the impactor’s velocity. This plasma is initially formed in the warm dense matter (WDM) regime and governed by high energy density (HED) hydrodynamics before it rapidly expands and dissipates, spanning many orders of magnitude in density and length scale. The plasma can also contain a dust component, which is particularly relevant for the lower-velocity range of hypervelocity impacts with parameters that are particularly relevant to Tokamak plasmas. Therefore, the properties and dynamics of these plasmas cannot be fully characterized without considering dusty plasma effects, which are ubiquitous but poorly understood.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4
Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at ~3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching ~4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid’s diameter at 60 ± 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 ’s potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. Here, we cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.
Asteroid deflection↗
RH-TRU Waste Streams: HFDA Crucibles Create New Complex Waste Stream
This project focuses on the removal of the Hot Fuel Dissolution Apparatus (HFDA) crucibles from the Hot Fuel Examination Facility’s (HFEF) hot cells to create space for upcoming projects. The project team has created a crucible and pyro-salt non-debris waste stream that can be disposed of at Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Chemical Compatibility Examinations (CCEs) must be performed on candidate waste by reviewing the types of chemicals used in the experiments, information found in INL Process Knowledge Summary Reports (PKSRs), and Environmental Protection Agency guides on chemical compatibility. The CCEs identify which chemicals can be safely combined to ensure adverse reactions do not occur in the waste packages. The CCEs are then used to update the PKSR, Basis of Knowledge, and Acceptable Knowledge documents and demonstrate compliance with the WIPP Waste Acceptance Criteria. Once documents are finalized, they are reviewed and approved by the WIPP Central Characterization Project (CCP) to ensure proper waste stream characterization. After the documents are approved, the crucibles can be packaged and shipped to the Idaho Nuclear Technical and Engineering Center for storage awaiting certification. CCP will certify the waste using the approved documents and a series of confirmatory testing before being shipped and disposed in WIPP’s deep geological repository. Currently, the CCE is in progress and the PKSRs are being updated.
Basis of Knowledge↗
CD206 + Trem2 + macrophage accumulation in the murine knee joint after injury is associated with protection against post-traumatic osteoarthritis in MRL/MpJ mice
Post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) is a painful joint disease characterized by the degradation of bone, cartilage, and other connective tissues in the joint. PTOA is initiated by trauma to joint-stabilizing tissues, such as the anterior cruciate ligament, medial meniscus, or by intra-articular fractures. In humans, ~50% of joint injuries progress to PTOA, while the rest spontaneously resolve. To better understand molecular programs contributing to PTOA development or resolution, we examined injury-induced fluctuations in immune cell populations and transcriptional shifts by single-cell RNA sequencing of synovial joints in PTOA-susceptible C57BL/6J (B6) and PTOA-resistant MRL/MpJ (MRL) mice. We identified significant differences in monocyte and macrophage subpopulations between MRL and B6 joints. A potent myeloid-driven anti-inflammatory response was observed in MRL injured joints that significantly contrasted the pro-inflammatory signaling seen in B6 joints. Multiple CD206 + macrophage populations classically described as M2 were found enriched in MRL injured joints. These CD206 + macrophages also robustly expressed Trem2 , a receptor involved in inflammation and myeloid cell activation. These data suggest that the PTOA resistant MRL mouse strain displays an enhanced capacity of clearing debris and apoptotic cells induced by inflammation after injury due to an increase in activated M2 macrophages within the synovial tissue and joint space.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Particle‐In‐Cell Simulations of Starfish Prime
The Starfish Prime high altitude nuclear test created a transient diamagnetic cavity in the Earth's magnetic field above Johnston Island and launched an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that was detected around the globe. For this work, we use the ion‐kinetic particle‐in‐cell code Topanga to simulate diamagnetic cavity evolution and the E3 EMP signal for Starfish Prime out to over a minute of physical time. The simulation domain has a longitudinal and latitudinal extent of 60° X 60° and a vertical extent of 2,000 km from the surface of the Earth. We compare our simulated results to magnetometer measurements taken in space and on the ground, finding good agreement in both cases. The diamagnetic cavity in the simulation forms in about a second, while the associated debris flux tube takes approximately 30 s to decay. The debris flux tube undergoes significant motion during this timeframe, rising upward. The measured E3 EMP signal on the ground consists of several components, all of which are present in our simulations. We discuss the physical origin of these components in relation to E3a (blast) and E3b (heave).
Belyaev, Mikhail A. [Lawrence Livermore National L↗
Cosmological Simulations of Stellar Halos with Gaia Sausage–Enceladus Analogs: Two Sausages, One Bun?
Observations of the Milky Way’s stellar halo find that it is predominantly comprised of a radially biased population of stars, dubbed the Gaia Sausage–Enceladus, or GSE. These stars are thought to be debris from dwarf galaxy accretion early in the Milky Way’s history. Though typically considered to be from a single merger, it is possible that the GSE debris has multiple sources. To investigate this possibility, we use the IllustrisTNG50 simulation to identify stellar accretion histories in 98 Milky Way analogs—the largest sample for which such an identification has been performed—and find GSE-like debris in 32, with two-merger GSEs accounting for a third of these cases. Distinguishing single-merger GSEs from two-merger GSEs is difficult in common kinematic spaces, but differences are more evident through chemical abundances and star formation histories. This is because single-merger GSEs are typically accreted more recently than the galaxies in two-merger GSEs: the median infall times (with 16th and 84th percentiles) are $5.{9}_{-2.0}^{+3.3}$ and $10.{7}_{-3.7}^{+1.2}$ Gyr ago for single- and two-merger scenarios, respectively. The systematic shifts in abundances and ages that occur as a result suggest that efforts in modeling these aspects of the stellar halo prove ever-important in understanding its assembly.
galactic archaeology↗