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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Solar and interplanetary particles at 2 to 4 MEV during solar cycles 21, solar cycle variations of event sizes, and compositions

In This paper 2 to 4 MeV/nucleon protons, alpha particles, and medium (CNO) nuclei in the near-Earth interplanetary medium during the years 1974 to 1981 are studied. This period contains both the solar activity minimum in 1976, and the very active onset phase of Solar Cycle 21. Characteristic compositional differences between the solar minimum and solar maximum ion populations have been investigated. Previous studies of interplanetary composition at these energies have concentrated on well-defined samples of the heliospheric medium. During flare particle events, the ambient plasma is dominated by ions accelerated in specific regions of the solar atmosphere; observation of the proton/alpha and alpha/medium ratios for flare events shows that there is marked compositional variability both during an event and from event to event suggesting the complicated nature of flare particle production and transport.

Armstrong, T. P.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Long term periodicity in solar wind velocity during the last three solar cycles

Solar wind measurements from the Pioneer 10, Pioneer 11, Voyager 2, IMP 8, and Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) spacecraft were examined to search for long-term periodicities during the last three solar cycles. For the time of the last solar maximum, these measurements confirm the existence of the periodic 1.3-year enhancements in solar wind velocity reported by Richardson et al. (1994). For most of the preceding two solar cycles, long-term velocity enhancements occurred that were similar in structure but lacked the 1.3-year periodicity. It appears that long-term enhancements in solar wind velocity, with durations on the order of a few months to a year, are a common feature throughout the heliosphere.

Gazis, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Magnetic Helicity Condensation and the Solar Cycle

Solar filaments exhibit a global chirality pattern where dextral/sinistral filaments, corresponding to negative/ positive magnetic helicity, are dominant in the northern/southern hemisphere. This pattern is opposite to the sign of magnetic helicity injected by differential rotation along east–west oriented polarity inversion lines, posing a major conundrum for solar physics. A resolution of this problem is offered by the magnetic helicity-condensation model of Antiochos. To investigate the global consequences of helicity condensation for the hemispheric chirality pattern, we apply a temporally and spatially averaged statistical approximation of helicity condensation. Realistic magnetic field configurations in both the rising and declining phases of the solar cycle are simulated. For the helicity-condensation process, we assume convective cells consisting of positive/negative vorticities in the northern/southern hemisphere that inject negative/positive helicity. The magnitude of the vorticity is varied as a free parameter, corresponding to different rates of helicity injection. To reproduce the observed percentages of dominant and minority filament chiralities, we find that a vorticity of magnitude 2.5 x 10(exp −6)/s is required. This rate, however, is insufficient to produce the observed unimodal profile of chirality with latitude. To achieve this, a vorticity of at least 5 x 10(exp −6)/s is needed. Our results place a lower limit on the small-scale helicity injection required to dominate differential rotation and reproduce the observed hemispheric pattern. Future studies should aim to establish whether the helicity injection rate due to convective flows and/or flux emergence across all latitudes of the Sun is consistent with our results.

Mackay, Duncan H.↗
NASA NTRS2008

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

Pesnell. William Dean↗
NASA NTRS1996

Solar Electromagnetic Radiation Study for Solar Cycle 22: Solar Ultraviolet Irradiance, 120 to 300 NM: Report of Working Groups 2 and 3 of SOLERS 22

This report summarizes the activities of Working Group 2 and Working Group 3 of the SOLax Electromagnetic Radiation Study for Solar Cycle 22 (SOLERS22) Program. The international (SOLERS22) is Project 1.2 of the Solar-Terrestrial Energy Program (STEP) sponsored by SCOSTEP, a committee of the International Council of Scientific Unions). SOLERS22 is comprised of five Working Groups, each concentrating on a specific wave-length range: WG-1 - visible and infrared, WG-2 - mid-ultraviolet (200 < A < 300 nm), WG-3 - Far-ultraviolet (lambda greater than 100 and lambda less than 200 nanometers), WG-4 - extreme-ultraviolet (lambda greater than 10 and lambda less than 100 nm), and WG-5 - X-ray (lambda greater than 1 and lambda less than 10 nano meters). The overarching goals of SOLERS22 are to: 1) establish daily solar irradiance values in the specified wavelength ranges, 2) consider the evolving solar structures as the cause of temporal variations, and 3) understand the underlying physical processes driving these changes.

Rottman, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Line-blanketing variations in the irradiance spectrum of the sun from maximum to minimum of the solar cycle

Solar irradiance spectra obtained at or near the maximum and minimum phases of the solar magnetic activity cycle are compared. The characteristics of these spectra are related to the irradiance measurements available from the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) of the SMM. An interpretation based on sunspots and faculae being added to the atmosphere at solar maximum can account for less than 4 percent of the ACRIM decrease to be arising in the 500-560 nm range. The UV, with its much greater line-blanketing, is more important, in agreement with the finding of Lean (1989).

Mitchell, W. E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Solar cycle variations of the solar wind

Throughout the course of the past one and a half solar cycles, solar wind parameters measured near the ecliptic plane at 1 AU varied in the following way: speed and proton temperature have maxima during the declining phase and minima at solar minimum and are approximately anti-correlated with number density and electron temperature, while magnetic field magnitude and relative abundance of helium roughly follow the sunspot cycle. These variations are described in terms of the solar cycle variations of coronal holes, streamers, and transients. The solar wind signatures of the three features are discussed in turn, with special emphasis on the signature of transients, which is still in the process of being defined. It is proposed that magnetic clouds be identified with helium abundance enhancements and that they form the head of a transient surrounded by streamer like plasma, with an optional shock front. It is stressed that relative values of a parameter through a solar cycle should be compared beginning with the declining phase, especially in the case of magnetic field magnitude.

Crooker, N. U.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Solar Cycle Predictions

Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

Pesnell, William Dean↗
NASA NTRS1991

Two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle

Total solar irradiance measured by the SMM/ACRIM radiometer is modelled from the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio with multiple regression analysis. Considering that the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, measured by the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. It is shown that the relationship between the variations in total solar irradiance and the above solar activity indices depends upon the phase of the solar cycle. Thus, a better fit between total irradiance and its model estimates can be achieved if the irradiance models are calculated for the declining portion and minimum of solar cycle 21, and the rising portion of solar cycle 22, respectively. There is an indication that during the rising portion of solar cycle 22, similar to the maximum time of solar cycle 21, the modelled total irradiance values underestimate the measured values. This suggests that there is an asymmetry in the long-term total irradiance variability.

Pap, Judit M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

How active was solar cycle 22?

Solar EUV observations from the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter suggest that at EUV wavelengths solar cycle 22 was more active than solar cycle 21. The Langmuir probe, acting as a photodiode, measured the integrated solar EUV flux over a 13 1/2 year period from January 1979 to June 1992, the longest continuous solar EUV measurement. The Ipe EUV flux correlated very well with the SME measurement of L-alpha during the lifetime of SME and with the UARS SOLSTICE L-alpha from October 1991 to June 1992 when the Ipe measurement ceased. Starting with the peak of solar cycle 21, there was good general agreement of Ipe EUV with the 10.7 cm, Ca K, and He 10830 solar indices, until the onset of solar cycle 22. From 1989 to the start of 1992, the 10.7 cm flux exhibited a broad maximum consisting of two peaks of nearly equal magnitude, whereas Ipe EUV exhibited a strong increase during this time period making the second peak significantly higher than the first. The only solar index that exhibits the same increase in solar activity as Ipe EUV and L-alpha during the cycle 22 peak is the total magnetic flux. The case for high activity during this peak is also supported by the presence of very high solar flare intensity.

Hoegy, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Solar Cycle Prediction

Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan your next vacation. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. I will describe the current state of solar cycle predictions and anticipate how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Pesnell, William Dean↗
NASA NTRS1986

Solar cycle variations in the solar wind

The solar cycle variations of various solar wind parameters are reviewed. It is shown that there is a gradual decrease in the duration of high-speed streams from the declining phase of solar cycle 20 through the ascending phase of cycle 21 and a corresponding decrease in the annual average of the proton speed toward solar maximum. Beta, the ratio of the proton thermal pressure to magnetic pressure, undergoes a significant solar cycle variation, as expected from the variation in the IMF. Individual hourly averages of beta often exceed unity with 20 cases exceeding 10 and one case as high as 25. The Alfven Mach number shows a solar cycle variation similar to beta, lower aboard solar maximum. High-speed streams can be seen clearly in epsilon and the y component of the interplanetary magnetic field.

Freeman, John W.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23

Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Evidence of solar-cycle variations in the solar wind

Solar-wind observations are presented from July 1965 through June 1971 that show the first evidence for long-term variations in the solar wind associated with changes in the solar-cycle. The observations indicate that the frequency of high-speed streams in the solar wind and their duration vary over the solar cycle. There are more days associated with high-speed streams during solar maximum than during solar minimum. The yearly average of the solar-wind speed varies over the solar cycle and is highest at solar maximum. These measurements also provide the first direct observational evidence for changes in the solar wind which can account for the solar-cycle modulation of the cosmic-ray intensity.

Intriligator, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Solar cycle invariance in solar wind proton temperature relationships

The relationships between solar wind proton temperature and velocity and between temperature and momentum flux density at 1 AU are examined using National Space Science Data Center IMP 8 solar wind data obtained from late 1984 to early 1985. These relationships are compared with similar ones obtained from a variety of solar wind data spanning 14 years, from 1966 to 1980. It is found that these relationships, particularly the one between temperature and velocity, are very stable over the solar cycles from which these data were drawn. This suggests that the basic physical processes which accelerate and heat the solar wind have remained unchanged for the last 20 years.

Lopez, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Satellite Measurements of Middle Atmospheric Impacts by Solar Proton Events in Solar Cycle 23

Solar proton events (SPEs) are known to have caused changes in constituents in the Earth's neutral polar middle atmosphere in the most recent solar maximum period (solar cycle 23). The highly energetic protons produced ionizations, excitations, dissociations, and dissociative ionizations of the background constituents in the polar cap regions (greater than 60 degrees geomagnetic latitude), which led to the production of HOx (H, OH, HO2) and NOy (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HO2NO2, ClONO2, BrONO2). The HOx increases led to short-lived ozone decreases in the polar mesosphere and upper stratosphere due to the short lifetimes of the HOx constituents. Polar middle mesospheric ozone decreases greater than 50% were observed and computed to last for hours to days due to the enhanced HOx. The NOy increases led to long-lived polar stratospheric ozone changes because of the long lifetime of the NOy family in this region. Upper stratospheric ozone decreases of greater than 10% were computed to last for several months past the solar events in the winter polar regions because of the enhanced NOy. Solar cycle 23 was especially replete with SPEs and huge fluxes of high energy protons occurred in July and November 2000, September and November 2001, April 2002, October 2003, and January 2005. Smaller, but still substantial, proton fluxes impacted the Earth during other months in this cycle. Observations by the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet 2 (SBUV/2) instruments along with GSFC 2D Model predictions will be shown in this talk.

Jackman, C.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The solar cycle variation of the solar wind helium abundance

A critical survey was made of the experimental evidence for a variation of the relative abundance by number h, (n alpha/np), of helium in the solar wind. The abundance is found to vary by delta h = 0.01 + or - 0.01 from 0.035 to 0.045 over solar cycle 20. Changes in the average bulk speed during the solar activity cycle was insufficient to account for this increase in h with the solar cycle. The slope of the linear relation between h and the plasma bulk speed is also found to vary, being greatest around solar maximum. An attempt is made to explain the 30% variation in h as the result of the variation in the number of major solar flares over a solar cycle. These obvious transients are apparently not numerous enough to explain the observed variation, but the reasonable expectation remains that the transients observed recently by Skylab which may occur more frequently than major flares could augment those associated with major flares. Since the solar wind flux is not observed to increase at solar maximum, the abundance of Helium cannot be proportional to the proton flux leaving the sun unless the solar wind comes from a smaller area of the sun at maximum than at minimum.

Ogilvie, K. W.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Additional evidence consistent with solar cycle variations in the solar wind

Analyses of solar-wind observations from mid-1964 through 1973 confirm the earlier results reported by Intriligator (1974) that there were statistically significant variations in the solar wind in 1968 and 1969, years of solar maximum. These variations were in phase with the solar cycle and consistent with a solar-cycle variation in the solar wind. High-speed stream parameters show that the number of high-speed streams in the solar wind in 1968 and 1969 and the total duration (in days) of high-speed streams in 1968 were considerably more than the predicted yearly average, and in 1965 and 1972 considerably less. Histograms of solar-wind speed from 1964 through 1973 indicate that in 1968 there was the highest percentage of elevated solar-wind speeds, and in 1965 and 1972 the lowest. Studies by others confirm these results, although their authors did not indicate this fact. The duration of the streams and the histograms for 1973 may imply a shifting in the primary stream source.

Intriligator, D. S.↗