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At least 19 records

Getting brighter: Impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts in high-solar, high-storage electricity systems

This paper analyzes the impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts on costs and dispatch in the solar-rich Southeast U.S. It uses an optimized high-solar, high-storage resource portfolio in which solar generation capacity accounts for 45 % of total installed capacity (34 %–36 % of generation) and energy storage capacity (43 GW) is equivalent to 33 % of peak demand. In a base scenario, improved day-ahead solar forecasts reduce production costs by $\$87$ million per year ($\$0.13$ per MWh load, $2023$$). This level of savings is within the range or lower than earlier studies of solar forecast improvements at lower levels of solar generation (<25 % of total generation). In this study, solar expansion was accompanied by two important sources of flexibility for managing solar forecast error: energy storage and day-ahead solar curtailment. Furthermore, the analysis finds that regional coordination complements day-ahead solar forecast improvements while natural gas commitment flexibility is a substitute for forecast improvements, as the improved solar forecast leads to sub-optimal commitment of thermal units. Day-ahead solar forecast improvements reduce reserves required to manage forecast error by 30 %. Fewer reserves to manage large, infrequent solar forecast errors could be an important benefit of improved solar forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Solar Influencer Next Door: Predicting Low-Income Solar Referrals and Leads

Increasing the adoption of solar among low-to-moderate income (LMI) households remains an important policy goal because of its promise to simultaneously reduce energy burden and support the just distribution of benefits of renewable energy. However, scaling LMI solar remains challenging due to affordability and access issues. Most existing LMI adoption has occurred under public-funded programs, highlighting the importance of increasing the cost-effectiveness of these programs at scale. We develop a new household-level data set on LMI solar lead acquisition, referrals, and adoption to understand the processes through which LMI solar uptake has occurred in California. Then, we develop models to predict two sub-mechanisms in the solar adoption process: whether an otherwise qualified lead becomes "lost" i.e. non-responsive to outreach and, for existing clients, whether they refer solar to others. For the program analyzed, participants received their solar system at no cost, which deemphasizes economic drivers of solar adoption and could differ from other program experiences. Both models substantially improved the accuracy of prediction relative to a baseline. Overall, we find that peer effects and solar economics are important to predicting referrals, and household demographic factors in lead loss prediction. Finally, we find that referrals are both the highest quality and largest source of LMI solar leads, providing a promising mechanism to expand LMI programs further.

customer acquisition costs↗

Hybrids of Solar Sail, Solar Electric, and Solar Thermal Propulsion for Solar-System Exploration

Solar sails have long been known to be an attractive method of propulsion in the inner solar system if the areal density of the overall spacecraft (S/C) could be reduced to approx.10 g/sq m. It has also long been recognized that the figure (precise shape) of useful solar sails needs to be reasonably good, so that the reflected light goes mostly in the desired direction. If one could make large reflective surfaces with reasonable figure at an areal density of approx.10 g/sq m, then several other attractive options emerge. One is to use such sails as solar concentrators for solar-electric propulsion. Current flight solar arrays have a specific output of approx. 100W/kg at 1 Astronomical Unit (AU) from the sun, and near-term advances promise to significantly increase this figure. A S/C with an areal density of 10 g/sq m could accelerate up to 29 km/s per year as a solar sail at 1 AU. Using the same sail as a concentrator at 30 AU, the same spacecraft could have up to approx. 45 W of electric power per kg of total S/C mass available for electric propulsion (EP). With an EP system that is 50% power-efficient, exhausting 10% of the initial S/C mass per year as propellant, the exhaust velocity is approx. 119 km/s and the acceleration is approx. 12 km/s per year. This hybrid thus opens attractive options for missions to the outer solar system, including sample-return missions. If solar-thermal propulsion were perfected, it would offer an attractive intermediate between solar sailing in the inner solar system and solar electric propulsion for the outer solar system. In the example above, both the solar sail and solar electric systems don't have a specific impulse that is near-optimal for the mission. Solar thermal propulsion, with an exhaust velocity of the order of 10 km/s, is better matched to many solar system exploration missions. This paper derives the basic relationships between these three propulsion options and gives examples of missions that might be enabled by such hybrids.

In-space Propulsion↗

Solar Models in Light of New High Metallicity Measurements from Solar Wind Data

We study the impact of new metallicity measurements, from solar wind data, on the solar model. The “solar modeling problem” refers to the persisting discrepancy between helioseismological observations and predictions of solar models computed implementing state-of-the-art photospheric abundances. We critically reassess the problem, in particular considering the new set of abundances of von Steiger and Zurbuchen, determined through the in situ collection of solar wind samples from polar coronal holes. This new set of abundances indicates a solar metallicity Z{sub ⊙}⩾0.0196±0.0014, significantly higher than the currently established value. The new values hint at an abundance of volatile elements (i.e., C, N, O, Ne) close to previous results of Grevesse and Sauval, whereas the abundance of refractory elements (i.e., Mg, Si, S, Fe) is considerably increased. Using the Linear Solar Model formalism, we determine the variation of helioseismological observables in response to the changes in elemental abundances, in order to explore the consistency of these new measurements with constraints from helioseismology. We find that for observables that are particularly sensitive to the abundance of volatile elements, in particular the radius of the convective zone boundary (CZB) and the sound speed around the radius of CZB, improved agreement over previous models is obtained. Conversely, the high abundance of refractories correlates with a higher core temperature, resulting in an overproduction of neutrinos and a huge increase in the surface helium abundance. We conclude that the “solar modeling problem” remains unsolved.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Community Solar Reaches Adopters Underserved by Rooftop Solar

Community solar, a business model where multiple customers buy output from shared solar systems, has expanded solar access among multifamily housing occupants, renters, and low-income households. Policies to enable community solar could be expanded and benefits of access augmented through targeted measures to support community solar adoption in underserved communities.

community solar↗

Comparison of High-Frequency Solar Irradiance: Ground Measured vs. Satellite-Derived

High-frequency solar variability is an important to grid integration studies, but ground measurements are scarce. The high resolution irradiance algorithm (HRIA) has the ability to produce 4-sceond resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) samples, at locations across North America. However, the HRIA has not been extensively validated. In this work, we evaluate the HRIA against a database of 10 high-frequency ground-based measurements of irradiance. The evaluation focuses on variability-based metrics. This results in a greater understanding of the errors in the HRIA as well as suggestions for improvement to the HRIA.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Solar-assisted Voltage Optimization Method for Transmission Solar Network Power System

This paper proposes a new formulation and solution algorithm that uses transmission level solar inverters to address the security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF) problem. The goal is to stabilize voltage fluctuations in transmission networks in base case and contingency scenarios, by using bulk solar power plant with a minimal number of post-contingency corrections. To achieve this goal, a two-stage volt/var optimization method is proposed to first correct all voltage violations with the volt-var alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) algorithm for a base case. Then a linearized SCOPF volt-var control algorithm is proposed to identify the corrective actions for all potential voltage violations in all contingency scenarios. The proposed method was tested and validated on a modified IEEE 118-bus system with solar photovoltaic (PV) data.

Photovoltaic, Volt/Var Control↗

Combinatorial Discovery of Lanthanum–Tantalum Oxynitride Solar Light Absorbers with Dilute Nitrogen for Solar Fuel Applications

© 2017 American Chemical Society. Oxynitrides with the photoelectrochemical stability of oxides and desirable band energetics of nitrides comprise a promising class of materials for solar photochemistry. Challenges in synthesizing a wide variety of oxynitride materials has limited exploration of this class of functional materials, which we address using a reactive cosputtering combined with rapid thermal processing method to synthesize multi-cation-multi-anion libraries. We demonstrate the synthesis of a LaxTa1-xOyNzthin film composition spread library and its characterization by both traditional thin film materials characterization and custom combinatorial optical spectroscopy and X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy (XANES) techniques, ultimately establishing structure-chemistry-property relationships. We observe that over a substantial La-Ta composition range the thin films crystallize in the same perovskite LaTaON2structure with significant variation of anion chemistry. The relative invariance in optical band gap demonstrates a remarkable decoupling of composition and band energetics so that the composition can be optimized while retaining the desirable 2 eV band gap energy. We also demonstrate the intercalation of diatomic nitrogen into the La3TaO7structure, which gives rise to a direct-allowed optical transition at 2.2 eV, less than half the value of the oxide's band gap. These findings motivate further exploration of the visible light response of this material that is predicted to be stable over a wide range of electrochemical potential.

Suram, Santosh K.↗

ICARUS: in-Situ Studies of the Solar Corona Beyond Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter

The primary scientific goal of ICARUS (Investigation of Coronal AcceleRation and heating of solar wind Up to the Sun), a mother-daughter satellite mission, proposed in response to the ESA “Voyage 2050” Call, will be to determine how the magnetic field and plasma dynamics in the outer solar atmosphere give rise to the corona, the solar wind, and the entire heliosphere. Reaching this goal will be a Rosetta Stone step, with results that are broadly applicable within the fields of space plasma physics and astrophysics. Within ESA’s Cosmic Vision roadmap, these science goals address Theme 2: “How does the Solar System work?” by investigating basic processes occurring “From the Sun to the edge of the Solar System”. ICARUS will not only advance our understanding of the plasma environment around our Sun, but also of the numerous magnetically active stars with hot plasma coronae. ICARUS I will perform the first direct in situ measurements of electromagnetic fields, particle acceleration, wave activity, energy distribution, and flows directly in the regions in which the solar wind emerges from the coronal plasma. ICARUS I will have a perihelion altitude of 1 solar radius and will cross the region where the major energy deposition occurs. The polar orbit of ICARUS I will enable crossing the regions where both the fast and slow winds are generated. It will probe the local characteristics of the plasma and provide unique information about the physical processes involved in the creation of the solar wind. ICARUS II will observe this region using remote-sensing instruments, providing simultaneous, contextual information about regions crossed by ICARUS I and the solar atmosphere below as observed by solar telescopes. It will thus provide bridges for understanding the magnetic links between the heliosphere and the solar atmosphere. Such information is crucial to our understanding of the plasma physics and electrodynamics of the solar atmosphere. ICARUS II will also play a very important relay role, enabling the radio-link with ICARUS I. It will receive, collect, and store information transmitted from ICARUS I during its closest approach to the Sun. It will also perform preliminary data processing before transmitting it to Earth. Performing such unique in situ observations in the area where presumably hazardous solar energetic particles are energized, ICARUS will provide fundamental advances in our capabilities to monitor and forecast the space radiation environment. Therefore, the results from the ICARUS mission will be extremely crucial for future space explorations, especially for long-term crewed space missions.

Solar wind↗

The New Solar System: China’s Evolving Solar Industry and Its Implications for Competitive Solar Power in the United States and the World

Solar power is undergoing a revolution. Over the past decade, an energy source as old as the planet and theoretically all but limitless has plummeted in cost and begun in some places to be harnessed in large volume. This dynamic is disrupting the modern energy system and, as energy disruptions always do, rattling the geopolitical order. In the process, the industry that produces the equipment to convert sunlight into electricity is simultaneously reeling, consolidating, and surging. These twin transformations—one of the global energy system, one of the global solar industry—carry profound implications for national economies and for the planet. At the center of both transformations sits China. The New Solar System illuminates key and little- understood changes that are remaking the solar enterprise—in China and thus in the world. Based on this analysis, it recommends changes in U.S. solar policy—particularly timely with a new U.S. administration and Congress—that would put solar power on a more economically sensible path toward environmentally significant growth. The New Solar System does not seek to enable any country to beat another in the global solar industry. It seeks instead to help all countries find their most effective places. By better understanding and playing to their comparative strengths in the solar business, countries would achieve two key objectives. They would reduce the cost for the world of scaling up solar power. And they would be better positioned to fashion policies that maximized the long-term benefit to their own economies from solar’s global growth.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

SOLAR SOURCES OF {sup 3}He-RICH SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS IN SOLAR CYCLE 24

Using high-cadence EUV images obtained by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we investigate the solar sources of 26 {sup 3}He-rich solar energetic particle events at ≲1 MeV nucleon{sup −1} that were well-observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer during solar cycle 24. Identification of the solar sources is based on the association of {sup 3}He-rich events with type III radio bursts and electron events as observed by Wind. The source locations are further verified in EUV images from the Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory, which provides information on solar activities in the regions not visible from the Earth. Based on AIA observations, {sup 3}He-rich events are not only associated with coronal jets as emphasized in solar cycle 23 studies, but also with more spatially extended eruptions. The properties of the {sup 3}He-rich events do not appear to be strongly correlated with those of the source regions. As in the previous studies, the magnetic connection between the source region and the observer is not always reproduced adequately by the simple potential field source surface model combined with the Parker spiral. Instead, we find a broad longitudinal distribution of the source regions extending well beyond the west limb, with the longitude deviating significantly from that expected from the observed solar wind speed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The solar UV related changes in total ozone from a solar rotation to a solar cycle

The Nimbus-7 TOMS version 6 data, corrected for the instrument degradation, are analyzed to delineate the solar UV related changes in total ozone (TOZ) against background signals of dynamical origin. It is shown that the solar UV related change in TOZ over a solar cycle is about 1.5 percent that may be attributed to about 6 percent change in the solar UV flux near 200 nm. This estimate is also consistent with the solar UV related changes in TOZ over a time scale of a solar rotation. In the solar rotation case, ozone lags the solar UV by 3-4 days and its sensitivity to solar UV change is a factor of 2-3 less than for the solar cycle case. Both these effects are attributed to chemical time constants in the lower stratosphere that are comparable to the period of a solar rotation.

Chandra, S.↗

Evolution of the Solar Wind Speed with Heliocentric Distance and Solar Cycle. Surprises from Ulysses and Unexpectedness from Observations of the Solar Corona

An extensive analysis of Ulysses observations of the solar wind speed V from 1990 to 2008 is undertaken. It is shown that the evolution of V with heliocentric distance r depends substantially on both the heliolatitude and the solar activity cycle. Deviations from the predicted Parker’s profile of V(r) are so considerable that cannot be explained by a scarcity of measurements or other technical effects. In particular, the expected smooth growth of the solar wind speed with r is typical only for the solar activity maximum and for low heliolatitudes (lower than ±40°), while at high latitudes, there are two V(r) branches: growing and falling. In the solar activity maximum, V increases toward the solar pole in the North hemisphere only; however, in the South hemisphere, it decreases with heliolatitude. In the minimum of solar activity, the profile of V(r) at low heliolatitudes has a local minimum between 2 and 5 AU. This result is confirmed by the corresponding data from other spacecraft (Voyager 1 and Pioneer 10). Unexpected spatial variations in V at low heliolatitudes can be explained by the impact of coronal hole flows on the V(r) profile since the flows incline to the ecliptic plane. To reproduce the impact of spatial variations of V in the polar corona on the behavior of V at low heliolatitudes, a stationary one-fluid ideal MHD-model is developed with account of recent results on imagery of the solar wind speed in the corona up to 5.5 solar radii obtained on the basis of combined observations from SOHO/UVCS, LASCO, and Mauna Loa.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

3D ELECTRON DENSITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN THE SOLAR CORONA DURING SOLAR MINIMA: ASSESSMENT FOR MORE REALISTIC SOLAR WIND MODELING

Knowledge of the electron density distribution in the solar corona put constraints on the magnetic field configurations for coronal modeling and on initial conditions for solar wind modeling. We work with polarized SOHO/LASCO-C2 images from the last two recent minima of solar activity (1996–1997 and 2008–2010), devoid of coronal mass ejections. The goals are to derive the 4D electron density distributions in the corona by applying a newly developed time-dependent tomographic reconstruction method and to compare the results between the two solar minima and with two magnetohydrodynamic models. First, we confirm that the values of the density distribution in thermodynamic models are more realistic than in polytropic ones. The tomography provides more accurate distributions in the polar regions, and we find that the density in tomographic and thermodynamic solutions varies with the solar cycle in both polar and equatorial regions. Second, we find that the highest-density structures do not always correspond to the predicted large-scale heliospheric current sheet or its helmet streamer but can follow the locations of pseudo-streamers. We deduce that tomography offers reliable density distributions in the corona, reproducing the slow time evolution of coronal structures, without prior knowledge of the coronal magnetic field over a full rotation. Finally, we suggest that the highest-density structures show a differential rotation well above the surface depending on how they are magnetically connected to the surface. Such valuable information on the rotation of large-scale structures could help to connect the sources of the solar wind to their in situ counterparts in future missions such as Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solar neutrinos, solar flares, solar activity cycle and the proton decay

It is shown that there may be a correlation between the galactic cosmic rays and the solar neutrino data, but it appears that the neutrino flux which may be generated during the large solar cosmic ray events cannot in any way effect the solar neutrino data in Davis experiment. Only initial stage of mixing between the solar core and solar outer layers after the sunspot maximum in the solar activity cycle can explain the higher (run number 27 and 71) of solar neutrino data in Davis experiment. But solar flare induced atmospheric neutrino flux may have effect in the nucleon decay detector on the underground. The neutrino flux from solar cosmic rays may be a useful guide to understand the background of nucleon decay, magnetic monopole search, and the detection of neutrino flux in sea water experiment.

Raychaudhuri, P.↗

Workshop on Solar Activity, Solar Wind, Terrestrial Effects, and Solar Acceleration

A summary of the proceedings from the workshop are presented. The areas covered were solar activity, solar wind, terrestrial effects, and solar acceleration. Specific topics addressed include: (1) solar cycle manifestations, both large and small scale, as well as long-term and short-term changes, including transients such as flares; (2) sources of solar wind, as identified by interplanetary observations including coronal mass ejections (CME's) or x-ray bright points, and the theory for and evolution of large-scale and small-scale structures; (3) magnetosphere responses, as observed by spacecraft, to variable solar wind and transient energetic particle emissions; and (4) origin and propagation of solar cosmic rays as related to solar activity and terrestrial effects, and solar wind coronal-hole relationships and dynamics.

Source record↗