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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Up-skilling and Re-skilling for the Nuclear Industry - 17276

In the UK, nuclear skills and qualifications have been the subject of several studies in higher levels of Government, including one by UK Cabinet Office. The newly formed UK Nuclear Skills Strategy Group (NSSG) has been tasked with addressing the current skills and people gaps for the UK nuclear industry. The NSSG is working with several key organisations in the UK: The National Skills Academy for Nuclear, (NSAN), which covers skills interventions, training and workforce development and experience, and the newly forming National College for Nuclear (NCfN) which will become a nuclear qualifications awarding body, regulating educational qualifications and curriculum in the nuclear sector. The NSSG has published its own UK Nuclear Skills Strategy in December 2016, aligned to the UK Cabinet Office study. It is the intent that, in the near future, nuclear qualifications and experience will be directly transferable across different organisations and nuclear sites in the UK, enabling the maintenance of high standards of behaviours and improved mobility throughout the sector. The UK needs to maintain and grow a diverse workforce and nuclear Suitably Qualified and Experienced Personnel (SQEP) people. The 2015 UK Nuclear Labour Market Intelligence (LMI) report, produced by Cogent for the Nuclear Energy Skills Alliance (NESA), concluded that the total nuclear workforce demand for the UK Nuclear Civil and Defence sector needed to grow by 33,000 people in the next five years, which includes replacement and expansion demand. This involved all disciplines and grades, with for example, higher level skilled workers needing to increase by 2200 FTEs every year. The main discipline pinch points were in, for example, Mechanical; Electrical; Project Management; Safety Case Specialists; Commissioning Engineers. Of the overall workforce, around 10% is over 60 years old and around 38% is over 50 years old. Jacobs in the UK is widely involved in many aspects of skills and competence development, with active involvement in local and national training programmes, and driving new methodologies to accelerate our staff's journey to nuclear competence. As well as looking at the immediate future, there is a risk in the UK that, over the 120-year plus clean-up mission, there won't be enough people with the right skills. Jacobs is developing sustainable solutions to this in our skills and development strategy for the nuclear sector. Jacobs has developed a variety of approaches to help us maintain and grow our diverse workforce and nuclear 'SQEP' people. This includes: - Identifying and developing our employees' technical and personal skills and capabilities, particularly the requirements of our millennials in both technical and social aspects of their working lives. - Identifying and planning for our future skills needs to meet our projected business requirements. - Our programme to transfer skilled employees from other sectors into the nuclear industry. - Our extensive school student placement scheme, aligned to the UK's 'Industrial Cadet' scheme, which has helped to bring school-aged students into Jacobs on workplace experience. - Our collaboration with our customers to develop UK national level Trailblazer Apprentice programmes. - Our involvement at a UK national level in the work of the National Skills Academy for Nuclear (NSAN), the Nuclear Energy Skills Alliance (NESA) High Level Skills Committee and the newly forming UK National College for Nuclear (NCfN). - Our work to ensure diversity is valued in our workplace, for example in our involvement in 'Women in Nuclear'. (authors)

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
NASA NTRS1995

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 51: Workplace communications skills and the value of communications and information-use skills instruction: Engineering students' perspectives

Studies indicate that communications and information-related activities take up a substantial portion of an engineer's work week; therefore, effective communications and information use skills are one of the key engineering competencies that recent graduates of engineering programs are expected to possess. Feedback from industry rates communications and information use skills of entry-level engineers low. Missing from current discussions of communications and information use skills and competencies for engineering students is a clear explanation from the professional engineering community about what constitutes 'acceptable and desirable communications and information norms' within that community. To gather adequate and generalizable data about communications and information skills instruction and to provide a student perspective on the communications skills of engineers, we undertook a national study of aerospace engineering students in March 1993. The study included questions about the importance of certain communications and information skills to professional success, the instruction students had received in these skills, and perceived helpfulness of the instruction. Selected results from the study study are reported in this paper.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Degradation of learned skills. Effectiveness of practice methods on simulated space flight skill retention

Manual flight control and emergency procedure task skill degradation was evaluated after time intervals of from 1 to 6 months. The tasks were associated with a simulated launch through the orbit insertion flight phase of a space vehicle. The results showed that acceptable flight control performance was retained for 2 months, rapidly deteriorating thereafter by a factor of 1.7 to 3.1 depending on the performance measure used. Procedural task performance showed unacceptable degradation after only 1 month, and exceeded an order of magnitude after 4 months. The effectiveness of static rehearsal (checklists and briefings) and dynamic warmup (simulator practice) retraining methods were compared for the two tasks. Static rehearsal effectively countered procedural skill degradation, while some combination of dynamic warmup appeared necessary for flight control skill retention. It was apparent that these differences between methods were not solely a function of task type or retraining method, but were a function of the performance measures used for each task.

Sitterley, T. E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing Soft Skill in the Geosciences: NASA DEVELOP’s Approach to Strengthening Soft Skills in the Future Geospatial Workforce

Part of NASA’s Applied Sciences, the DEVELOP Program bridges the gap between NASA Earth Science and potential users through rapid feasibility studies that apply Earth observations to environmental decision making needs. The program conducts 50-60 studies a year that engage participants – students, recent graduates, early career individuals, and transitioning career professionals – in autonomous teamwork with an emphasis on professional development and communication. The experience offers participants a robust opportunity to build their teaming skills (facilitated through programmatic personality assessments and discussions), interpersonal communication, and critical thinking skills which are central to project work in the DEVELOP model. The program also offers leadership opportunities where participants lead their peers within a supportive environment. This presentation will introduce the DEVELOP model for soft skill development, lessons learned, and highlight testimonials of past participants.

Amanda Clayton↗
NASA NTRS1972

Degradation of learned skills: Effectiveness of practice methods on visual approach and landing skill retention

Flight control and procedural task skill degradation, and the effectiveness of retraining methods were evaluated for a simulated space vehicle approach and landing under instrument and visual flight conditions. Fifteen experienced pilots were trained and then tested after 4 months either without the benefits of practice or with static rehearsal, dynamic rehearsal or with dynamic warmup practice. Performance on both the flight control and procedure tasks degraded significantly after 4 months. The rehearsal methods effectively countered procedure task skill degradation, while dynamic rehearsal or a combination of static rehearsal and dynamic warmup practice was required for the flight control tasks. The quality of the retraining methods appeared to be primarily dependent on the efficiency of visual cue reinforcement.

Sitterley, T. E.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Degradation of learned skills. Static practice effectiveness for visual approach and landing skill retention

The effectivess of an improved static retraining method was evaluated for a simulated space vehicle approach and landing under instrument and visual flight conditions. Experienced pilots were trained and then tested after 4 months without flying to compare their performance using the improved method with three methods previously evaluated. Use of the improved static retraining method resulted in no practical or significant skill degradation and was found to be even more effective than methods using a dynamic presentation of visual cues. The results suggested that properly structured open loop methods of flight control task retraining are feasible.

Sitterley, T. E.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Investigating the Relationship between Need for Cognition and Skill in Ethical Hackers

As technology gets more complex and increasingly connected, there is an increasing concern with cyber security. There is also a growing demand for cyber security professionals. Unfortunately there currently are not enough skilled professionals to meet that demand. In order to prepare the next generation of cyber security professionals to meet this demand, we need to understand what characteristics make skilled cyber security professionals. For this work, we focus on professionals who take an offensive approach to cyber security, so called ethical hackers. These hackers utilize many of the same skills that the adversaries that we defend against would use, with the goal of identifying vulnerabilities and address them before they are exploited by adversaries. A commonly held belief among ethical hackers is that hackers must possess exceptional curiosity and problem solving skills in order to be successful. Curiosity is has been studied extensively in psychology, but there is no consensus on what it is and how to measure it. Further, many existing inventories for assessing curiosity are targeted at measuring curiosity in children. Although there isn’t an accepted standard to assess curiosity in adults, a related construct, called Need for Cognition (may capture what is meant when people speak of curiosity. The Need for Cognition scale also captures the tendency toward preferring complex problems (which correlates with good problem solving skills), which may provide insight into what make skilled hackers. In addition to the Need for Cognition, we used a structured interview to assess hacker skill. Hackers rated their own skill on a scale from one to ten on a predefined list of hacker skills. They were then asked to rate a peer who they felt was most skilled in each of the skills. They were asked to rate two peers for each skill, one that they worked with directly and one person that was the most skilled in the field (these could be known by reputation only). The hypothesis is that hackers have a higher than average (i.e., compared to non-hackers) Need for cognition and that Need for Cognition will be positively correlated with self-reported and peer reported skill. We interviewed 20 cyber security researchers who specialize in offensive approaches. Based on the responses to the hacker skill inventory, we generated a self-reported skill score for each participant. We also developed a peer-rating for each participant based on the number of times each individual that was interviewed was named as the most skilled in a particular area. The results indicate that the sample of ethical hackers has a high Need for Cognition and that Need for cognition was related to both self-reported skill and peer-reported skill. The results are discussed in the context of training and recruitment of cyber security professionals.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

GEFSv12 High- and Low-Skill Day-10 Tornado Forecasts

Abstract On average, modern numerical weather prediction forecasts for daily tornado frequency exhibit no skill beyond day 10. However, in this extended-range lead window, there are particular model cycles that have exceptionally high forecast skill for tornadoes because of their ability to correctly simulate the future synoptic pattern. Here, model initial conditions that produced a more skillful forecast for tornadoes over the United States were exploited while also highlighting potential causes for low-skill cycles within the Global Ensemble Forecasting System, version 12 (GEFSv12). There were 88 high-skill and 91 low-skill forecasts in which the verifying day-10 synoptic pattern for tornado conditions revealed a western U.S. thermal trough and an eastern U.S. thermal ridge, a favorable configuration for tornadic storm occurrence. Initial conditions for high skill forecasts tended to exhibit warmer sea surface temperatures throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, an active Madden–Julian oscillation, and significant modulation of Earth-relative atmospheric angular momentum. Low-skill forecasts were often initialized during La Niña and negative Pacific decadal oscillation conditions. Significant atmospheric blocking over eastern Russia—in which the GEFSv12 overforecast the duration and characteristics of the downstream flow—was a common physical process associated with low-skill forecasts. This work helps to increase our understanding of the common causes of high- or low-skill extended-range tornado forecasts and could serve as a helpful tool for operational forecasters. Significance Statement This research provides a framework for the anticipation of a more (or less) skillful 10-day tornado forecast in an operational numerical weather prediction system. High-skill forecasts were associated with substantial tropical convection and warm sea surface temperature throughout the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, whereas the underlying cause of low-skill forecasts were typically associated with a blocking anticyclone over eastern Russia. These findings are important because they permit increased or decreased confidence in a long-range forecast of tornado occurrence based on a dynamical prediction system.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS1994

A streamlined software environment for situated skills

This paper documents a powerful set of software tools used for developing situated skills. These situated skills form the reactive level of a three-tiered intelligent agent architecture. The architecture is designed to allow these skills to be manipulated by a task level engine which is monitoring the current situation and selecting skills necessary for the current task. The idea is to coordinate the dynamic activations and deactivations of these situated skills in order to configure the reactive layer for the task at hand. The heart of the skills environment is a data flow mechanism which pipelines the currently active skills for execution. A front end graphical interface serves as a debugging facility during skill development and testing. We are able to integrate skills developed in different languages into the skills environment. The power of the skills environment lies in the amount of time it saves for the programmer to develop code for the reactive layer of a robot.

Yu, Sophia T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Contributions of Precipitation and Soil Moisture Observations to the Skill of Soil Moisture Estimates in a Land Data Assimilation System

The contributions of precipitation and soil moisture observations to the skill of soil moisture estimates from a land data assimilation system are assessed. Relative to baseline estimates from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), the study investigates soil moisture skill derived from (i) model forcing corrections based on large-scale, gauge- and satellite-based precipitation observations and (ii) assimilation of surface soil moisture retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). Soil moisture skill is measured against in situ observations in the continental United States at 44 single-profile sites within the Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) for which skillful AMSR-E retrievals are available and at four CalVal watersheds with high-quality distributed sensor networks that measure soil moisture at the scale of land model and satellite estimates. The average skill (in terms of the anomaly time series correlation coefficient R) of AMSR-E retrievals is R=0.39 versus SCAN and R=0.53 versus CalVal measurements. The skill of MERRA surface and root-zone soil moisture is R=0.42 and R=0.46, respectively, versus SCAN measurements, and MERRA surface moisture skill is R=0.56 versus CalVal measurements. Adding information from either precipitation observations or soil moisture retrievals increases surface soil moisture skill levels by IDDeltaR=0.06-0.08, and root zone soil moisture skill levels by DeltaR=0.05-0.07. Adding information from both sources increases surface soil moisture skill levels by DeltaR=0.13, and root zone soil moisture skill by DeltaR=0.11, demonstrating that precipitation corrections and assimilation of satellite soil moisture retrievals contribute similar and largely independent amounts of information.

Reichle, Rolf H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a preferred state characterized by systematic error, or bias. Bias and drift are among the greatest challenges facing initialized prediction today. Differences in trends between initial states and drifted states, combined with bias and drift, introduce complexities in calculating anomalies to assess skill of initialized predictions. We examine several methods of calculating anomalies using the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) initialized hindcasts and focus on Pacific and Atlantic SSTs to illustrate issues with anomaly calculations. Three methods of computing anomalies, one as differences from a long term model climatology, another as bias-adjusted differences from the previous 15 year average from observations, and a third as differences from the previous 15 year average from the model, are contrasted and each is shown to have limitations. For the first, trends in bias and drift introduce higher skill estimates earlier and later in the hindcast period due to the trends that contribute to skill. For the second, higher skill can be introduced in situations where low frequency variability in the observations is large compared to the hindcasts on timescales greater than 15 years, while lower skill can result if the predicted signal is small and the bias-correction itself produces a transition of SST anomalies to the opposite sign of those that are observed. The third method has somewhat lower skill compared to each of the others, but has less difficulties with not only the long term trends in the model climatology, but also with the unrealistic situational skill from using observations as a reference. However, the first 15 years of the hindcast period cannot be evaluated due to having to wait to accumulate the previous 15 year model climatology before the method can be applied. Here, the IPO transition in the 2014–2016 time frame from negative to positive (predicted by Meehl et al. in in Nat Commun, 10.1038/NCOMMS11718, 2016) did indeed verify using all three methods, though each provides somewhat different skill values as a result of the respective limitations. There is no clear best method, as all are roughly comparable, and each has its own set of limitations and caveats. However, all three methods show generally higher overall skill in the AMO region compared to the IPO region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Deterministic skill of ENSO predictions from the North American Multimodel Ensemble

Hindcasts and real-time predictions of the east-central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) system are verified for 1982–2015. Skill is examined using two deterministic verification measures: mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and anomaly correlation. Verification of eight individual models shows somewhat differing skills among them, with some models consistently producing more successful predictions than others. The skill levels of MME predictions are approximately the same as the two best performing individual models, and sometimes exceed both of them. A decomposition of the MSESS indicates the presence of calibration errors in some of the models. In particular, the amplitudes of some model predictions are too high when predictability is limited by the northern spring ENSO predictability barrier and/or when the interannual variability of the SST is near its seasonal minimum. The skill of the NMME system is compared to that of the MME from the IRI/CPC ENSO prediction plume, both for a comparable hindcast period and also for a set of real-time predictions spanning 2002–2011. Comparisons are made both between the MME predictions of each model group, and between the average of the skills of the respective individual models in each group. Acknowledging a hindcast versus real-time inconsistency in the 2002–2012 skill comparison, the skill of the NMME is slightly higher than that of the prediction plume models in all cases. This result reflects well on the NMME system, with its large total ensemble size and opportunity for possible complementary contributions to skill.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Attribution of North American Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill

The skill of NOAA’s official monthly U.S. precipitation forecasts (issued in the middle of the prior month) has historically been low, having shown modest skill over the southern United States, but little or no skill over large portions of the central United States. The goal of this study is to explain the seasonal and regional variations of the North American subseasonal (weeks 3–6) precipitation skill, specifically the reasons for its successes and its limitations. The performances of multiple recent-generation model reforecasts over 1999–2015 in predicting precipitation are compared to uninitialized simulation skill using the atmospheric component of the forecast systems. This parallel analysis permits attribution of precipitation skill to two distinct sources: one due to slowly evolving ocean surface boundary states and the other to faster time-scale initial atmospheric weather states. A strong regionality and seasonality in precipitation forecast performance is shown to be analogous to skill patterns dictated by boundary forcing constraints alone. The correspondence is found to be especially high for the North American pattern of the maximum monthly skill that is achieved in the reforecast. The boundary forcing of most importance originates from tropical Pacific SST influences, especially those related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Furthermore, we discuss physical constraints that may limit monthly precipitation skill and interpret the performance of existing models in the context of plausible upper limits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office's (GMAO's) GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multivariate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO's atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 percent improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the sub-polar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Decadal Prediction↗
DOE OSTI2012

Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗