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At least 19 records

Assessing Factors of Safety, Margins of Safety, and Reliability of Thermal Protection Systems

This paper provides formally derived definitions for Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) factors of safety and margins of safety borrowing from machine design approaches. The new factors of safety and margins of safety definitions are quite simple and easy to use, and should provide improved comparison of design safety and margins of past, present and future vehicles, These definitions are then applied to several entry vehicles, including Apollo, the Space Shuttle, the Mars Viking and Pathfinder vehicles, and the Pioneer Venus entry vehicle for example and clarity, and to aid in developing a database of previous TPS design experience. In addition to the factors and margins of safety, definitions of computed reliabilities incorporation the reliability index used in machine design are also developed and presented. Adoption and use of the reliability index will hopefully considerably aid the optimization of TPS design for future vehicles.

Rasky, Daniel J.↗

Study of a safety margin system for powered-lift STOL aircraft

A study was conducted to explore the feasibility of a safety margin system for powered-lift aircraft which require a backside piloting technique. The objective of the safety margin system was to present multiple safety margin criteria as a single variable which could be tracked manually or automatically and which could be monitored for the purpose of deriving safety margin status. The study involved a pilot-in-the-loop analysis of several safety margin system concepts and a simulation experiment to evaluate those concepts which showed promise of providing a good solution. A system was ultimately configured which offered reasonable compromises in controllability, status information content, and the ability to regulate the safety margin at some expense of the allowable low speed flight path envelope.

Heffley, R. K.↗

Nuclear Criticality Safety Margin and Handbook Data: Concepts and Applications [Slides]

At the end of this briefing, personnel should be able to: • Define concepts associated with criticality safety margin • Provide and understand practical applications that illustrate safety margin concepts • Describe how safety margin is addressed in criticality safety evaluations • Improve documentation and communication of safety margin • Connect these concepts to related statements in the ANS-8 Standards • Find numerous applications for handbook data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A safety margin and flight reference system and display for powered-lift aircraft

A study was conducted to explore the feasibility of a safety margin and flight reference system for those powered-lift aircraft which require a backside piloting technique. The main objective was to display multiple safety margin criteria as a single variable which could be tracked both manually and automatically and which could be monitored in order to derive safety margin status. The study involved a pilot-in-the-loop analysis of several system concepts and a simulator experiment to evaluate those concepts showing promise. A system was ultimately configured which yielded reasonable compromises in controllability, status information content, and the ability to regulate safety margins at some expense of the allowable low speed flight path envelope.

Heffley, R. K.↗

Calculating Factors of Safety and Margins of Safety from Interaction Equations

This report presents the derivation of the relationship between the factor of safety, the margin of safety, and a given interaction equation in two- or three-dimensional space. Factors of safety and margins of safety can be calculated from these interaction equations using either the closed-form solutions provided or the numerical methods mentioned in this report. The dual definition of the factor of safety is presented.

Factor of Safety↗

Credible Criticality Safety Margin in the 30B Package with LEU+ UF 6 and Hypothetical Water Ingress

The commercial nuclear industry is pursuing advancements in fuel and reactor design that increase the uranium enrichment above 5 wt. % 235 U. These advancements will necessitate the ability to transport bulk quantities of UF 6 at increased enrichments. Currently, the 30B cylinder is the primary container used by the industry for UF 6 storage and transportation and has a long history of successful shipments. This container can support up to 2,277 kg of UF 6 at a maximum enrichment of 5 wt. % 235 U. Previous evaluations have assessed the potential impact of criticality safety for 30B transport at higher enrichments but assumed moderator intrusion would not require evaluation. Although current regulations allow for the exception of moderator intrusion for UF 6 packages through the design and quality control of the package content, this exception is limited to enrichments up to 5 wt. % 235 U. Thus, an investigation of moderator intrusion into a 30B cylinder should be performed. Moderator intrusion into a 30B cylinder is a unique condition for criticality safety evaluation in transportation because of the violent chemical reactions that occur between UF 6 and H 2 O. The resulting intrusion is strongly dependent on the breach size, breach location, breach interface solid/ullage of the UF 6 content, the UF 6 distribution (which is temperature dependent), and temperature/pressure conditions which are dynamic in accident conditions. Additionally, the complexity of the HF-UO 2 F 2 -H 2 O interface that occurs during the event can influence the potential solubility of uranium in the system, as well as influence the amount of UF 6 reaction with H 2 O. With the operating experience from Orano Federal Services LLC, the UF 6 chemical expertise from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the criticality safety expertise from ORNL, this paper evaluates the neutronic conditions (i.e., k eff ) that apply the understood chemistry and experimental conditions that occur during moderator intrusion of a breached 30B cylinder under postulated accidents. This report examines the historical evaluations of UF 6 transport and expands these evaluations for the enrichments expected for nuclear industry advancement. These simulations primarily feature a homogeneous mixture of UF 6 and H 2 O as an infinite media system and as a sphere with water reflection given an impurity limit of 0.5 wt. % UF 6 . This report demonstrates that this H/U limit is valid up to 8 wt. % enrichment for both H 2 O and HF as the moderating mixture. The water-reflected homogeneous mixed spheres evaluated demonstrate the amount of safety margin applied by restricting the 30B cylinder impurity limit to 0.5 wt. %. Additionally, this report evaluates moderator ingress scenarios of a 30B cylinder. The 30B cylinder simulations vary the cylinder orientation, the mass of UF 6 in the system, the mass of H 2 O in the system, and how much H 2 O has reacted with UF 6 . The moderator ingress of a 30B cylinder was evaluated for the water-reflected homogeneous mixed spheres to demonstrate the amount of safety margin applied by restricting the 30B cylinder impurity limit to 0.5 wt. %. These simulations are standard practice and are independent of the UF 6 -H 2 O reaction. This work also explored more complex simulations that layer the H 2 O over the UF 6 , which incorporates the amount of reacted UF 6 as a separate layer and considers solubility limits of UO 2 F 2 in H 2 O as it is produced. This approach is intended to simulate the postulated event of a large hairline crack occurring on a submerged cylinder. Finally, this work considers the potential of H 2 O mixing into the UF 6 solid heterogeneously using a sponge-like model. The water ingress into the UF 6 is treated as random size spheres, and the reaction products form into a layer over the spheres.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Real-Time Prediction of Safety Margins in the National Airspace

Underlying all operations in the National Airspace System (NAS) is the concept of safety. Safety, as defined by acceptable levels of risk, is to be maintained at all times. The real-time safety monitoring (RTSM) framework is under development to provide an automated system to quantify safety in the NAS, estimate the current level of safety, and predict the future evolution of safety and the occurrence of events that pose an increased risk to flights so that these occurrences can be managed strategically rather than mitigated reactively. This paper presents the mathematical framework, the models, and the monitoring and prediction algorithms used to achieve this. RTSM computes safety as expressed through a set of safety margins based on user-defined safety metrics, thresolds, and events. Sources of uncertainty are modeled and propagated through the predictions in order to compute the probabilistic evolution of safety and the probability of events that introduce increased risk to operations. A prototype implementation is discussed and results demonstrating feasibility are presented. The results highlight the kinds of predictions that can be computed and the fidelity that is currently achieved.

national airspace system↗

Safety margins in the implementation of planetary quarantine requirements

The formulation of planetary quarantine requirements, and their implementation as determined by a risk allocation model, is discussed. The model defines control safety margins with particular emphasis on utility in achieving the desired minimization of excessive margins, and their effect on implementation procedures.

Schalkowsky, S.↗

Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests

Abstract Tropical forests face increasing climate risk 1,2 , yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 ) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM 50 ) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk 3–5 , little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM 50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM 50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM 50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM 50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM 50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM 50 in the Amazon 6,7 , with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Calculating Factors of Safety and Margins of Safety from Interaction Equations for Preloaded Bolts

This report presents the derivation of the factored interaction equations for preloaded bolts in two- or three-dimensional space. This is an extension of the previous work of the first author which covered factored interaction equations consisting of load or stress-ratios which were either solely constant or solely varying quantities. The factored interaction equations for preloaded bolts consist of an axial load-ratio that is a combination of a constant quantity, preload and thermal load at preload, and a varying quantity, tensile and bending loads, and was not covered under the previous work. Two forms of the factored interaction equations for preloaded bolts, arising from two perspectives, are presented and compared. Closed form solutions for the tensile, shear, and bending loads as functions of the other concurrent loads that produces zero margin of safety are presented.

interaction equations↗

Credible Criticality Safety Margin in the 30B Package with LEU+ UF 6 and Hypothetical Water Ingress

The commercial nuclear industry is pursuing advancements in fuel and reactor design that increase the uranium enrichment above 5 wt. % 235 U. These advancements will necessitate the ability to transport bulk quantities of UF 6 at increased enrichments. Currently, the 30B cylinder is the primary container used by the industry for UF6 storage and transportation and has a long history of successful shipments. This container can transport up to 2,277 kg of UF 6 at a maximum enrichment of 5 wt. % 235 U. Previous evaluations have assessed the potential impact of criticality safety for 30B transport at higher enrichments but assumed moderator intrusion would not require evaluation. Although current regulations allow for the exception of moderator intrusion for UF6 packages through the design and quality control of the package content, this exception is limited to enrichments up to 5 wt. % 235 U. Thus, an investigation of moderator intrusion into a 30B cylinder should be performed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Gains in operational flexibility, safety margins, and cost efficiencies via integrated Plant Reload Optimization platform

The U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway Plant Reload Optimization Project aims to develop an integrated, comprehensive framework offering an all-in-one solution for reload evaluations with a special focus on optimizing core design. Optimizing the fuel loading pattern is one of the most important considerations in reducing the amount of new fuel used in the core. Due to thousands of possible core configuration options, finding optimal solutions is an unachievable task for a human. The Plant ReLoad Optimization platform, which supports artificial-intelligence-based reactor core designing, is now fully capable of handling realistic problems. The Plant ReLoad Optimization platform development project aims to build a reactor core design tool that includes reactor safety and fuel performance analyses and uses artificial intelligence to support the optimization of core design solutions. The NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) optimizer was developed and tested within RAVEN (Risk Analysis and Virtual ENvironment) to handle many constraints by using an augmented objectives methodology. The demonstration was performed with constrained multiobjective optimization of a 17 × 17 pressurized-water reactor core loading patterns to minimize fuel cost and maximize fuel cycle length.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Integrating static PRA information with risk informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) simulation methods

The overall objective of the project was to develop a computationally feasible and user-friendly mechanized process to integrate traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and dynamic PRA (DPRA) results. Starting with the systematic identification of items in an existing PRA that need dynamic augmentation, the project used a generic 4-loop pressurized reactor (PWR) and 3-loop PWR as example plants. Station blackout (SBO) and large break loss of coolant accident SBLOCA) were selected as the example initiating events. Using the traditional event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology augmented by dynamic evet tree approach, the potential consequences of the initiating events were simulated with RELAP-3D and MELCOR/RASCAL codes to cover Level 1 through Level 3 of PRA. RAVEN and ADAPT software were used to generate Level 1 simulations with RELAP-3D and Level 2/3 simulations with MELCOR (Level 2)/RASCAL (Level 3), respectively. Example branching conditions (BCs) for SBO included AC power recovery time, valve repair failure time, reactor coolant pump leak time/break size and emergency power supply duration to a total of 9. Example BCs for LOCA included off-site power recovery time, diesel generator power recovery time, auxiliary feed water system operation time, safety relief valve failure to open upon demand, reactor coolant pump seal break time and size to a total of 21. Each RELAP-3D simulation (9,587 scenarios) was labelled OK or Core Damage based on the maximum allowed peak clad temperature (2,100oF). Each MELCOR simulation (4610 scenarios) was labeled as Bin over 10rem or Bin 0-10rem based on the dose at the site boundary. The scenarios were clustered based on the criteria above using the mean shift methodology. Classical PRA (CPRA) and DPRA results were compared to identify the ET sequences that need DPRA augmentation. Several approaches were proposed for the incorporation of these sequences into CPRA using clustering with the mean shift methodology, restructuring the CPRA ETs by adding new BCs/sequences, and using the concept of a limit surface. Procedures for decision making regarding the possible consequences of an initiating event (e.g. core damage or not, site evacuation or not) were developed using a convolutional neural network (CNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and a transformer neural network (TNN). The project has led to two PhD degrees, three archival journal papers and five refereed conference proceedings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Evaluating design safety margins in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers graphite core components design-by-analysis assessments

Graphite is an important material being used for core components in next-generation high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. The selection of graphite grade for a specific Designer is a complex task, dependent on reactor conditions, component functionality, and required reliability. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) provides two semi-probabilistic design-by-analysis assessments to evaluate graphite core components against design reliability targets. The simplified assessment uses a 2-parameter Weibull distribution to describe the graphite grade’s tensile-strength distribution to establish component stress limits. The full assessment uses the 3-parameter Weibull distribution and a modified Weakest-Link Theory approach to calculate a component design probability of failure. The paper defines recommended assessment rules, which are the as-written simplified assessment and the full assessment with parameter lower bounds, the modulus update with threshold reduction, and the 2027 grouping rules. Code rules are applied to three grades: 2114, IG-110, and NBG-18. The baseline margin calculation is developed using the experimental tensile dogbone specimen. Percent margin is defined as the percent reduction in the median experimental load to obtain the allowable load per ASME assessments. Under the recommended rules, the SRC–1 margin in the simplified assessment ranged from 40.2 % to 52.7 % among the grades in this study and from 36.1 % to 49.8 % in the full assessment. The full assessment only decreases the margins by 2.5–4.5 % for the SRC-1 components and 0–1.5 % for the SRC-2 components for this baseline case. Margin is inversely related to material median strength (i.e., the strongest grade, 2114, has the lowest margin).

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Genome collection processing for “Conserved upper thermal limits and small safety margins in soil copiotrophic bacteria”

We extracted the genomic DNA of 400 randomly selected isolates using a Quick-DNA Microprep Kit (Zymo Research D3020) according to the manufacturer’s protocol. We then submitted the extracted gDNA samples for short-read Illumina sequencing (200 Mbp) at SeqCoast Genomics (Portsmouth, NH, USA). After preprocessing the sequences using Trimmommatic (Bolger et al. 2014), we assembled the genomes using SPADES (Bankevich et al. 2012) and checked the quality of each assembly using QUAST (Gurevich et al. 2013). We processed the genome assemblies using a KBase (v1.4.0) pipeline (Allen et al. 2017; Arkin et al. 2018). Briefly, we used DRAM (v0.1.2) with default settings to annotate the genome assemblies. We then evaluated genome quality and possible contamination levels using CheckM (v1.0.18) (Parks et al. 2015) and retained genomes with completeness above 98% and contamination below 5% (n = 354), following the authors' guidelines. We then obtained taxonomic assignments for all remaining isolates using the Genome Taxonomy Database tool GTDB-Tk (v2.3.2, database version r214) (Chaumeil et al. 2019). We constructed a phylogenetic tree using the tool SpeciesTree (v2.2.0). We then trimmed the tree (using Trim SpeciesTree to GenomeSet- v1.4.0), retaining only tips within our collection with measured thermal performance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Transonic Flutter Investigation of Models of T-Tail of Blackburn NA-39 Airplane

A transonic flutter investigation has been made of models of the T-tail of the Blackburn NA-39 airplane. The models were dynamically and elastically scaled from measured airplane data in accordance with criteria which include a flutter safety margin. The investigation was made in the Langley transonic blowdown tunnel and covered a Mach number range from 0.73 to 1.09 at simulated altitudes extending to below sea level. The results of the investigation indicated that, if differences between the measured model and scaled airplane properties are disregarded, the airplane with the normal value of stabilizer pitching stiffness should have a stiffness margin of safety of at least 32 percent at all Mach numbers and altitudes within the flight boundary. However, the airplane with the emergency value of stabilizer pitching stiffness would not have the required margin of safety from symmetrical flutter at Mach numbers greater than about 0.85 at low altitudes. First-order corrections for some differences between the measured model and scaled airplane properties indicated that the airplane with the normal value of stabilizer pitching stiffness would still have an adequate margin of safety from flutter and that the flutter safety margin for the airplane with the emergency value of stabilizer pitching stiffness would be changed from inadequate to adequate. However, the validity of the corrections is questionable.

Jones, George W., Jr.↗

Structural design feasibility study of Space Station long spacer truss

The structural design and configuration feasibility of the long spacer truss assembly that will be used as part of the Space Station Freedom is the focus of this study. The structural analysis discussed herein is derived from the transient loading events presented in the Space Transportation System Interface Control Document (STS ICD). The transient loading events are liftoff, landing, and emergency landing loads. Quasi-static loading events were neglected in this study since the magnitude of the quasi-static acceleration factors is lower than that of the transient acceleration factors. Structural analysis of the proposed configuration of the long spacer truss with four longerons indicated that negative safety margins are possible. As a result, configuration changes were proposed. The primary configuration change suggested was to increase the number of truss longerons to six. The six-longeron truss appears to be a more promising structure than the four-longeron truss because it offers a positive margin of safety and more volume in its second bay (BAY2). This additional volume can be used for resupply of some of the orbital replacement units (such as a battery box). Note that the design effort on the long spacer truss has not fully begun and that calculations and reports of the negative safety margins are, to date, based on concept only.

Armand, Sasan C.↗

Test and model correlation of the atmospheric emission photometric imager fiberglass pedestal

The correlation is presented of the static loads testing and finite element modeling for the fiberglass pedestal used on the Atmospheric Emission Photometric Imaging (AEPI) experiment. This payload is to be launched in the space shuttle as part of the ATLAS-1 experiment. Strain gauge data from rosettes around the highly loaded base are compared to the same load case run for the Spacelab 1 testing done in 1981. Correlation of the model and test data was accomplished through comparison of the composite stress invariant using the expected flight loads for the ATLAS-1 mission. Where appropriate, the Tsai-Wu failure criteria was used in the development of the key margins of safety. Margins of safety are all positive for the pedestal and are reported.

Lee, H. M., III↗