Operational risk quantification of power grids using graph neural network surrogates of the DC OPF
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Zhang, Yadong↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Risk quantification”
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Model credibility and risk quantification
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Karve, Pranav M. [Vanderbilt University]↗
Interconnected Risks in Electricity Systems: Understanding Research Challenges, Needs, and Partnerships
The U.S. federal government has a potential role in mitigating the most poorly addressed risks across electricity markets and interdependent systems. Electricity system risks stem from extreme acute shocks (e.g., cyberattacks, extreme weather, and supply chain disruptions) and chronic stressors (e.g., global economic competition, uncertainties surrounding emerging technologies, climate change, and related conflicts). These acute shocks and chronic stressors can result in dire consequences for society, underscoring the need for better information for decision makers in both public and private sectors. Best practices and a shared understanding of risk management and risk quantification must be rapidly developed and disseminated. Informed by a quantitative treatment of risk to electrical infrastructure and interdependent systems, decision makers can more prudently and efficiently prioritize mitigation initiatives to maximize benefits to government, businesses, and the public.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Transitioning CO2-EOR Field to Dedicated CO2 Storage: Risk Considerations and Quantifications
Presentation slides on “Transitioning CO2-EOR Field to Dedicated CO2 Storage: Risk Considerations and Quantifications” for the CCUS 2025 conference held in Houston, Texas March 3-5, 2025. CO2 injection wells for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) are currently regulated as Class II wells under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) program, while dedicated geological CO2 storage (GCS) wells are considered Class VI wells. The UIC classification of wells for a transitioning CO2-EOR facility has the potential to substantially impact the feasibility of operations. This paper reports a case study of risk assessment of this transition, including areas review, plume stability and pressure transient and its impacts in dedicated CO2 storage.
carbon storage↗
Space Shuttle critical function audit
A large fault-tolerance model of the main propulsion system of the US space shuttle has been developed. This model is being used to identify single components and pairs of components that will cause loss of shuttle critical functions. In addition, this model is the basis for risk quantification of the shuttle. The process used to develop and analyze the model is digraph matrix analysis (DMA). The DMA modeling and analysis process is accessed via a graphics-based computer user interface. This interface provides coupled display of the integrated system schematics, the digraph models, the component database, and the results of the fault tolerance and risk analyses.
Sacks, Ivan J.↗
Uncertainty Quantification Implementation for Quantitative Risk Assessments of Hydrogen Systems
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Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Laboratories ↗
Probability of Hydrogen Ignition: A Landscape Review and Gaps Assessment
The primary hazard of a leak from a hydrogen system is due to the immediate or delayed ignition of the fuel leading to a jet flame or explosion. Therefore, understanding the hydrogen ignition probability is critical for analyzing the risk of hydrogen systems. This report reviews the current understanding of hydrogen ignition mechanisms and methods for modeling their probability. The stoichiometry, ignition strength, and ignition source temperature are all important characteristics that can affect both the probability of ignition and the outcome of the subsequent combustion event. A brief review of diffusion ignition demonstrates that ignition probability models must account for seemingly spontaneous ignition of hydrogen in addition to scenarios where the ignition source is readily identified. State-of-the art models for both immediate and delayed ignition probabilities are presented, including different physical aspects of the scenarios (e.g., flow rate, ignition source characteristics) that are considered in the different modeling approaches. Current models often fail to account for the unique properties of hydrogen compared to other fuels, and most lack rigorous validation with hydrogen as a fuel. A fault tree framework is proposed to systematically evaluate the probability of ignition by integrating various ignition mechanisms and their uncertainties. Furthermore, this type of framework could enable additional insights into the most important mechanisms and would enable uncertainty quantification in risk assessment modeling. Recommendations for future research include the need for experimental validation of ignition models and the development of comprehensive methodologies that incorporate the specifics of hydrogen behavior in real-world scenarios.
hydrogen↗
Aviation security screening optimizer for risk and throughput (ASSORT)
The increasing number of air travelers each year presents a challenge as many airports are near their capacity in terms of resources and space for passenger screening. Fortunately, advancements in technologies like next-generation millimeter wave scanning offer solutions to ease this strain. The focus remains on managing risk while enhancing the passenger experience for the traveling public. The risk model presented in this paper known as the Aviation Security Screening Optimizer for Risk and Throughput (ASSORT) is designed to assess risk-based approaches for passenger screening and checkpoint operations. Additionally, ASSORT is exploring various traveler categories — general, trusted, and trusted-plus — along with different checkpoint screening Concept of Operations tailored to each traveler type. For instance, travelers with a higher trust level may experience fewer screening technologies, resulting in quicker processing times at the checkpoint. The output of ASSORT provides a risk score for predefined threat scenarios, as well as the overall risk to the checkpoint, aircraft, and airport by traveler type. In conclusion, benefits of using this tool include assessing the trade-offs between the overall risk associated with checkpoints and the throughput rate of passengers screened. We show for example the impact that different passenger volumes at the checkpoint can have on risk.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Software For Advanced Large-scale Analysis Of Magnetic Confinement For Numerical Design, Engineering & Research (salamander)
As magnetic confinement fusion energy gains traction internationally to enable abundant energy production, designing components for fusion systems is a pressing challenge. During the planned lifetime of a fusion device, components evolve in extreme environments and must withstand large, repeated thermal loads and bombardment by 14 MeV neutrons, plasma ions, and neutral particles (deuterium, tritium, and helium), corrosive conditions, etc. All these physical processes take place simultaneously, interact in intricate ways, and impose important constraints that can affect performance. Experimental data is rare and costly to obtain, making design particularly challenging. Predictive computational frameworks must be an integral part of an accelerated and cost-effective design process by modeling fusion system performance in simulated environments. To better understand component degradation and operational impacts on their performance, the Software for Advanced Large-scale Analysis of MAgnetic confinement for Numerical Design, Engineering & Research (SALAMANDER) is designed as an open-source, fully integrated, multiphysics, multiscale, NQA-1 compliant framework facilitating 3D, high-fidelity fusion system modeling. To that end, SALAMANDER is a MOOSE-based framework, and therefore leverages MOOSE upstream libraries such as PETSc and libMesh to deliver sophisticated finite element, finite volume, and nonlinear solver technology for fusion energy simulations. SALAMANDER couples MOOSE physics module capabilities—such as thermal hydraulics, heat conduction, Navier-Stokes, and thermomechanics—with tritium transport via TMAP8, neutronics via Cardinal, and nascent particle-in-cell capabilities. Direct simulation Monte Carlo methods will be used to address neutral transport near the walls. By coupling all these physics in an integrated application, SALAMANDER will enable high-fidelity modeling of irradiation levels and plasma exposure conditions of plasma facing components and their impact on heat and tritium distributions, as well as the resulting mechanical constraints experienced by the plasma facing components and performance of blanket systems. Furthermore, SALAMANDER will be particularly suited for engineering studies thanks to the stochastic tool module readily available in MOOSE, allowing for extended uncertainty quantification and risk analysis studies. It is also able to use computer-aided design (CAD) meshes to model complex geometries, which is indispensable for fusion systems. SALAMANDER therefore supports design, safety, engineering, and research projects for magnetic confinement fusion systems
Simon, Pierre-Clement [Idaho National Laboratory (↗
Mission risk appraisal.
Mission risk appraisal technique for identification and quantification of high risk areas for unmanned interplanetary missions
MISSION PLANNING↗
Envelope-driven comfort risk in residential demand response
Residential demand response (DR) is a valuable resource for grid reliability, but remains challenging because the highly heterogeneous residential building stock leads to widely varying and hard-to-predict load and comfort responses during DR events. Although prior research has estimated the technical potential of DR-capable technologies for achieving energy demand savings, little is known about how they affect thermal comfort. In particular, it remains unclear how indoor thermal conditions due to DR depend on the thermal envelope characteristics of the housing stock. To address this gap, this study provides a systematic, location-specific assessment of indoor thermal performance during DR-events across the US housing stock using both typical DR weather data and detailed building metadata. We evaluate how envelope characteristics influence indoor temperatures during realistic simulated summer and winter DR events across 37 US locations, applying both temperature threshold and rate of temperature change criteria to estimate region-level probabilities of discomfort. Additionally, we show the impact of distinct weather patterns that intensify or abate thermal stress on comfort outcomes. Results show a near-universal overheating risk in summer DR events, where comfort outcomes are strongly influenced by rapid risk of comfort violations. In contrast, overall winter DR discomfort risk is lower, risk escalation is more gradual and shows greater sensitivity to event duration. These findings offer a data-driven quantification of comfort risk across diverse climates and building envelopes, demonstrating the need for region-specific DR scheduling and discomfort mitigation strategies tailored to local weather patterns and the performance of existing residential buildings.
Demand response↗
Development of a River Dynamical Core for E3SM to simulate compound flooding on Exascale-class heterogeneous supercomputers
Flooding events pose significant risk to human life, property, and infrastructure. Physically-consistent quantification of altered flood risks in global models requires hyper-resolution (~1 km) or fine flood simulations using two-dimensional (2D) physics schemes, both of which are unavailable in the current generation Earth System Models. Here, in this work, we have developed the River Dynamical Core (RDycore), which is an open-source, 2D shallow water equation (SWE) library for the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). RDycore uses PETSc and libCEED libraries that allows it to run efficiently on CPUs and GPUs, as well as select a time-integration algorithm at runtime without requiring any code modifications. RDycore achieves spatial error convergence rates for problems with analytical and manufactured solutions similar to those reported previously in the literature, or consistent with the implemented first-order spatial discretization scheme. RDycore's accuracy in predicting flooding for a well-studied dam break problem is comparable to existing SWE models. For a problem with 471 million grid cells, RDycore achieves a speedup of 6.6x and 7.6x on GPUs compared to CPUs when using 320 compute nodes on DOE's Perlmutter and Frontier supercomputers, respectively. The one-way coupling of the RDycore library within E3SM is demonstrated by performing multiple 5-day flooding simulations during Hurricane Harvey driven by five precipitation datasets. The E3SM--RDycore simulations at 30 m spatial resolution accurately simulate maximum water height during the hurricane when benchmarked against a previously published study and achieve a speedup of 15x (Perlmutter) and 21x (Frontier) on GPUs relative to CPUs. The work presented here is the foundational step in providing hardware and algorithmic portability framework for simulating kilometer-scale river dynamics within E3SM.
Flood Simulation↗
Accelerating uncertainty quantification in incremental dynamic analysis using dimension reduction-based surrogate modeling
We propose a surrogate modeling framework based on dimension reduction to facilitate the quantification of seismic risk of structural systems in performance-based earthquake engineering. The framework adopts incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) for addressing hazard variability, and promotes significant computational efficiency improvement for propagating epistemic uncertainties associated with the structural models. It utilizes both linear and nonlinear dimension reduction approaches, equipped with inverse mappings, to learn a functional between the input parameter space (e.g., the epistemic uncertainties of the structure) to the high-dimensional output space created through the IDA implementation across different ground motions and seismic intensity levels. Polynomial chaos expansion is adopted as the surrogate model to learn this functional in the reduced space. A nine-story steel moment-resisting frame with uncertain structural properties is used as a testbed. Furthermore, we select the seismic fragility curves as a measure of the structure’s seismic performance, since it provides an estimate of the probability of entering specified damage states for given levels of ground shaking.
42 ENGINEERING↗
An Approach to Automate tools for the Risk Assessment of Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems
Reliable digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) are integral for sustaining the continued operation of nuclear power plants. These systems ensure that nuclear reactors operate safely, efficiently, and within regulatory requirements. Yet, the cost of designing and licensing new nuclear DI&C can be prohibitively expensive. Under the U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program, Idaho National Laboratory has developed a framework for supporting the risk-informed design of DI&C systems by offering methods to support the identification, quantification, and evaluation of risks for various DI&C design architectures. The framework indicates potential software failure modes and provides pathways for quantifying the potential for these software failures, including common cause failures. Using the framework’s systematic approach, challenges for assessing risks within new and existing nuclear DI&C systems can be reduced. Nevertheless, the current framework can be further improved using the convenience of automation. This paper introduces the development of Software for the Hazard Identification and Evaluation of Digital Systems (SHIELDS). SHIELDS is an engineering software package that enables the identification, elimination, and mitigation of potential risks and reduces the burden of deploying reliable DI&C systems. This work introduces plans and techniques to digitize and improve the manual risk assessment modules of the framework. These improvements will save time and increase the repeatability and usability of the framework, making it more accessible to a wider range of users. Ultimately, this introduces SHIELDS and how its modules support efficient development of safe and reliable DI&C systems.
46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
Advances in Modeling Capabilities for Critical Mineral Separation Technologies: A PrOMMiS Overview
This is an oral presentation at the TechConnect conference on the work developed by PrOMMiS. PrOMMiS builds on and extends capabilities developed within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES), Integrated Platform, and Water Treatment Technoeconomic Assessment Platform (WaterTAP), which have been successfully leveraged by other Department of Energy research areas. The open-source toolkit facilitates validation, reproducibility, and accountability, allowing for easy extension of the framework to other systems. This talk presents an overview of the PrOMMiS capabilities, including unit model library, advances in thermophysical properties models, and capital cost libraries for simulation and optimization of mineral processing technologies. The PrOMMiS applications include (1) conceptual design and superstructure optimization for screening different process configurations and identifying promising technologies; (2) dynamic modeling and optimization to enable the creation of digital twins; (3) surrogate modeling tools to leverage data when predictive thermodynamic models are not currently available; (4) technical risk reduction via uncertainty quantification and robust optimization to identify process designs that are robust to process variability and uncertainties; and (5) deployment of uncertainty quantification tools to maximize knowledge gained from experimental campaigns, while reducing the number of experiments required
critical minerals and materials↗
Space Station Power System Advanced Development
The objectives of the Space Station Advanced Development Program are related to the development of a set of design options and/or new capabilities to support Space Station development and operation, taking into account also a quantification of the performance and risk of key state-of-the-art technologies, and a reduction of the cost and schedule risk in Space Station development. Attention is given to the photovoltaic power system, a solar dynamic system, and aspects of power management and distribution. A major issue will be the selection of the power generation system. In view of the advantages of the solar dynamic system, it is attempted to resolve issues associated with this system.
Forestieri, A. F.↗
Advancing Multi-Hazard Risk and Safety Considerations for Aging Nuclear Facilities (Revision 1)
This project will demonstrate a multi-hazard time-dependent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach for nuclear facilities considering aging-related deterioration of structures. A generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) reactor subjected to seismic mainshock-aftershock sequences considering the aging of the containment structure will be used as a case study to demonstrate the multi-hazard PRA approach. Using advanced modeling and simulation, seismic mainshock-aftershock fragility functions will be simulated for the containment structure considering aging effects. A multi-hazard PRA model for a generic PWR reactor will be built to quantify the multi-hazard core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF) with explicit time-dependent modeling of event sequences. To date, the cascading impacts of multi-hazards are not adequately accounted for in the PRA models for nuclear facilities. In addition, for both initial and periodic evaluation of facilities to withstand natural phenomena hazards (NPH), deterioration of the SSCs due to aging and other effects is not adequately considered. By advancing multi-hazard considerations accounting for aging effects, this project will contribute to improved understanding of the safety of aging nuclear facilities. Project outcomes such as the multi-hazard CDF and LERF will also allow facility owners to optimize upgrade and retrofit protocols. This project is divided into two components: (1) advanced modeling and simulations; and (2) multi-hazard PRA. For the first component, Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) and BlackBear codes will be used to simulate the seismic response and damage of a containment structure under cascading mainshock-aftershock sequences with aging effects. Uncertainties related to the seismic inputs, material parameters, and environmental factors such as temperature and humidity will be identified and propagated to the fragility functions. These fragility functions, which consider aging effects, will be time dependent. The second component will take the fragility information from the first component to build a multi-hazard time-dependent PRA model starting from a generic PWR model to evaluate the multi-hazard CDF and LERF and characterize the associated consequences. For this component, OpenPRA Web Application and SAPHIRE code will be used. Events such as the Fukushima Daiichi accident have highlighted the importance of considering the cascading impacts of multi-hazards for PRA. Moreover, many of the reactors in the current nuclear fleet in the United States (US) are already operating well beyond their initially planned design life, and applications for further extensions to operating licenses are being considered. Therefore, considering multi-hazard effects and aging deterioration in the NPH risk assessment process will contribute to the safety of both existing and future nuclear facilities. Outcomes of this project will thus directly benefit the standards DOE-STD-1020-16 and DOE-HDBK-1224-18.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
The aerospace plane design challenge: Credible computational fluid dynamics results
Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is necessary in the design processes of all current aerospace plane programs. Single-stage-to-orbit (STTO) aerospace planes with air-breathing supersonic combustion are going to be largely designed by means of CFD. The challenge of the aerospace plane design is to provide credible CFD results to work from, to assess the risk associated with the use of those results, and to certify CFD codes that produce credible results. To establish the credibility of CFD results used in design, the following topics are discussed: CFD validation vis-a-vis measurable fluid dynamics (MFD) validation; responsibility for credibility; credibility requirement; and a guide for establishing credibility. Quantification of CFD uncertainties helps to assess success risk and safety risks, and the development of CFD as a design tool requires code certification. This challenge is managed by designing the designers to use CFD effectively, by ensuring quality control, and by balancing the design process. For designing the designers, the following topics are discussed: how CFD design technology is developed; the reasons Japanese companies, by and large, produce goods of higher quality than the U.S. counterparts; teamwork as a new way of doing business; and how ideas, quality, and teaming can be brought together. Quality control for reducing the loss imparted to the society begins with the quality of the CFD results used in the design process, and balancing the design process means using a judicious balance of CFD and MFD.
Mehta, Unmeel B.↗