Combining physics-based and data-driven techniques for reliable hybrid analysis and modeling using the corrective source term approach
Not Available
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Reliable hybrid analysis and modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Multi-Timescale Optimal Operation Framework for Integrated Economic and Reliability Analysis of Hybrid Power Plants
This paper introduces a hierarchical modeling framework for hybrid power plants (HPP) to facilitate the operation of HPP in power systems similar to conventional generators (Congens) in the integrated multi-timescale optimal operation framework. To consider the uncertainties of HPP renewable power in the day-ahead scheduling, distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is used. To ensure that the state-of-charge (SOC) of energy storage systems in HPPs aligns closely with the planned value for long-term reliability, real-time SOC management is incorporated. In addition, an adjustable real-time control is designed for the robust delivery of HPP real-time services. Case studies performed on a revised IEEE 39-bus system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for HPP operation. Simulation results highlight that the proposed framework not only can help operators schedule HPP similar to Congens in varying weather conditions but can also maintain the frequency reliability of the system.
frequency stability↗
Tutorial: Advanced fault tree applications using HARP
Reliability analysis of fault tolerant computer systems for critical applications is complicated by several factors. These modeling difficulties are discussed and dynamic fault tree modeling techniques for handling them are described and demonstrated. Several advanced fault tolerant computer systems are described, and fault tree models for their analysis are presented. HARP (Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor) is a software package developed at Duke University and NASA Langley Research Center that is capable of solving the fault tree models presented.
Dugan, Joanne Bechta↗
On reliability modeling and analysis of ultrareliable fault-tolerant digital systems.
The processes of protective redundancy, namely, standby replacement (SR) redundancy and hybrid redundancy (a combination of SR and multiple-line voting redundancy), find application in the architecture of fault-tolerant digital computers and enable them to be ultrareliable and self-repairing. The claims to ultrareliability lead to the challenge of quantitatively evaluating and assigning a value to the probability of survival as a function of the mission durations intended. This note presents various mathematical models, and derives and displays quantitative evaluations of system reliability as a function of various mission parameters of interest to the system designer.
Mathur, F. P.↗
An approach to solving large reliability models
This paper describes a unified approach to the problem of solving large realistic reliability models. The methodology integrates behavioral decomposition, state trunction, and efficient sparse matrix-based numerical methods. The use of fault trees, together with ancillary information regarding dependencies to automatically generate the underlying Markov model state space is proposed. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated by modeling a state-of-the-art flight control system and a multiprocessor system. Nonexponential distributions for times to failure of components are assumed in the latter example. The modeling tool used for most of this analysis is HARP (the Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor).
Boyd, Mark A.↗
Analysis of typical fault-tolerant architectures using HARP
Difficulties encountered in the modeling of fault-tolerant systems are discussed. The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) approach to modeling fault-tolerant systems is described. The HARP is written in FORTRAN, consists of nearly 30,000 lines of codes and comments, and is based on behavioral decomposition. Using the behavioral decomposition, the dependability model is divided into fault-occurrence/repair and fault/error-handling models; the characteristics and combining of these two models are examined. Examples in which the HARP is applied to the modeling of some typical fault-tolerant systems, including a local-area network, two fault-tolerant computer systems, and a flight control system, are presented.
Bavuso, Salvatore J.↗
A geospatial risk analysis graphical user interface for identifying hazardous chemical emission sources
Background: Performing back trajectory and forward trajectory using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) is a reliable approach for assessing particle transport after release among mid-field atmospheric models. HYSPLIT has an externally facing online interface that allows non-expert users to run the model trajectories without requiring extensive training or programming. However, the existing HYSPLIT interface is limited if simulations have a large amount of meteorological data and timesteps that are not coincident. The objective of this study is to design and develop a more robust tool to rapidly evaluate hazard transport conditions and to perform risk analysis, while still maintaining an intuitive and user-friendly interface. Methods: HYSPLIT calculates forward and backward trajectories of particles based on wind speed, wind direction, and the corresponding location, timestamp, and Pasquill stability classes of the regions of the atmosphere in terms of the wind speed, the amount of solar radiation, and the fractional cloud cover. The computed particle transport trajectories, combined with the online Proton Transfer Reaction-Mass Spectrometry (PTR-MS) data (https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/ARL_Data_from_PROS_station_at_Hanford_site/19993964), can be used to identify and quantify the sources and affected area of the hazardous chemicals’ emission using the potential source distribution function (PSDF). PSDF is an improved statistical function based on the well-known potential source contribution function (PSCF) in establishing the air pollutant source and receptor relationship. Performing this analysis requires a range of meteorological and pollutant concentration measurements to be statistically meaningful. The existing HYSPLIT graphical user interface (GUI) does not easily permit computations of trajectories of a dataset of meteorological data in high temporal frequency. To improve the performance of HYSPLIT computations from a large dataset and enhance risk analysis of the accidental release of material at risk, a geospatial risk analysis tool (GRAT-GUI) is created to allow large data sets to be processed instantaneously and to provide ease of visualization. Results: The GRAT-GUI is a native desktop-based application and can be run in any Windows 10 system without any internet access requirements, thus providing a secure way to process large meteorological datasets even on a standalone computer. GRAT-GUI has features to import, integrate, and convert meteorological data with various formats for hazardous chemical emission source identification and risk analysis as a self-explanatory user interface. The tool is available at https://figshare.com/articles/software/GRAT/19426742.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Tandem Photovoltaics Core Program Final Technical Report
The Tandem Photovoltaics Core Program was a multi-year initiative aimed at advancing hybrid tandem solar cell technologies to enhance solar module efficiency beyond the limits of single junction devices. This project focused on the development, testing, and scaling of prototype photovoltaic devices, with the goal of achieving commercial relevance and driving industry adoption. The work was divided into three tasks: 1) Comparative Analysis of Tandem Technologies: This task focused on quantifying energy yield under real-world conditions and assessing economic viability of tandems relative to silicon-based modules. The project's modeling framework incorporated performance data, cost of materials, and manufacturing process impacts to optimize tandem designs 2) Tandem Integration and Prototyping: In this task, we developed innovative tandem designs by combining metal halide perovskite (MHP) top cells and silicon (Si) bottom cells. The project focuses on both mechanical integration and direct deposition techniques to enable compatibility with commercially relevant Si technologies, such as passivated contact or PERC cells. 3) Scale-up and Reliability: This task addressed the challenges of large-area fabrication by developing scalable deposition methods and robust interconnection schemes for tandems. The project looked at different accelerated testing such as thermal cycling, damp heat exposure, and potential induced degradation, to ensure long-term stability of devices in field conditions. Tandem solar cells can greatly increase module efficiency beyond conventional single junction (SJ) devices, which are approaching their theoretical limit. There are many ways to fabricate a tandem cell or module in terms of materials used, configuration, and terminal connection. This SETO core project focused critical factors in enabling tandems to enter the market, including hardware integration, technoeconomic analysis (TEA), and energy yield analysis. We focused on MHP/Si hybrid tandem solar cells and modules as a model system for their versatility in module design comparisons, providing valuable insights for other tandem options. While champion cells with areas <1cm2 are regularly demonstrated by groups around the world, it is significantly more challenging to translate these advances into modules, and fewer institutions and companies are working at the module level. This project addressed questions about module fabrication, testing, and reliability that are hard to answer without actually fabricating prototypes. We also performed analysis and road-mapping activities to understand the potential for a wider variety of tandems, including all-perovskite tandems fabricated in collaboration with the Perovskite PV core program. Detailed technical results from this project are described for each task in Section 7.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
FORCE Integration with DRAFT and IDAES
Integrated energy systems (IES) combine, in mutually beneficial ways, power from variable renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants (NPP) to produce multiple commodities and improve economic viability under uncertain market conditions. Technical and economic analysis of IES requires modeling of complex processes with software models having enough fidelity to capture real-world dynamics while still being capable of running using reasonable computing resources. The open-source Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), has enabled comprehensive modeling and simulation of IES. The capabilities within FORCE include grid portfolio optimization through the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the transient process model analysis library HYBRID, among others. Recent developments for the FORCE toolset have centered on strengthening the flexibility and modularity to link with external models and other available software to enhance IES simulations. Adding versatility to the FORCE toolset improves capability resulting in better techno-economic simulation of nuclear and IES components (both in potential higher fidelity and accuracy to expected performance after deployment). It also helps leverage existing work in the IES field and improve efficiency in national code development. This report focuses on two such endeavors: integration of the Dynamic Reliability Analysis Framework Tool (DRAFT) and the Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES) software packages into FORCE.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Short-lead seasonal precipitation forecast in northeastern Brazil using an ensemble of artificial neural networks
This study assesses the deterministic and probabilistic forecasting skill of a 1-month-lead ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks (EANN) based on low-frequency climate oscillation indices. The predictand is the February-April (FMA) rainfall in the Brazilian state of Ceará, which is a prominent subject in climate forecasting studies due to its high seasonal predictability. Additionally, the study proposes combining the EANN with dynamical models into a hybrid multi-model ensemble (MME). The forecast verification is carried out through a leave-one-out cross-validation based on 40 years of data. The EANN forecasting skill is compared with traditional statistical models and the dynamical models that compose Ceará’s operational seasonal forecasting system. A spatial comparison showed that the EANN was among the models with the smallest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Ranked Probability Score (RPS) in most regions. Moreover, the analysis of the area-aggregated reliability showed that the EANN is better calibrated than the individual dynamical models and has better resolution than Multinomial Logistic Regression for above-normal (AN) and below-normal (BN) categories. It is also shown that combining the EANN and dynamical models into a hybrid MME reduces the overconfidence of the extreme categories observed in a dynamically-based MME, improving the reliability of the forecasting system.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The relationship between reliability and bonding techniques in hybrid systems
Differential thermal expansion has been shown to be responsible for many observed failures in ceramic chip capacitors mounted on alumina substrates. The present work has shown that the mounting techniques used in bonding the capacitors have a marked effect upon the thermally induced mechanical stress and thus the failure rate. A mathematical analysis of a composite model of the capacitor-substrate system to predict the magnitude of thermally induced stresses have been conducted. It has been experimentally observed that the stresses in more compliant bonding systems such as soft lead/tin and indium solders are significantly lower than those in hard solder and epoxy systems. From the data obtained, several recommendations are made concerning the optimum bonding system for the achievement of maximum reliability.
Kinser, D. L.↗
Advances in Energy Hybridization for Resilient Supply: A Sustainable Approach to the Growing World Demand
Energy poverty, defined as a lack of access to reliable electricity and reliance on traditional biomass resources for cooking, affects over a billion people daily. The World Health Organization estimates that household air pollution from inefficient stoves causes more premature deaths than malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS. Increasing demand for energy has led to dramatic increases in emissions. The need for reliable electricity and limiting emissions drives research on Resilient Hybrid Energy Systems (RHESs), which provide cleaner energy through combining wind, solar, and biomass energy with traditional fossil energy, increasing production efficiency and reliability and reducing generating costs and emissions. Microgrids have been shown as an efficient means of implementing RHESs, with some focused mainly on reducing the environmental impact of electric power generation. The technical challenges of designing, implementing, and applying microgrids involve conducting a cradle-to-grave Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) to evaluate these systems’ environmental and economic performance under diverse operating conditions to evaluate resiliency. A sample RHES was developed and used to demonstrate the implementation in rural applications, where the system can provide reliable electricity for heating, cooling, lighting, and pumping clean water. The model and findings can be utilized by other regions around the globe facing similar challenges.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
The relationship between reliability and bonding techniques in hybrid systems
Differential thermal expansion has been shown to be responsible for many observed failures in ceramic chip capacitors mounted on alumina substrates. The present work has shown that the mounting techniques used in bonding the capacitors have a marked effect upon the thermally induced mechanical stress and thus the failure rate. A mathematical analysis of a composite model of the capacitor-substrate system to predict the magnitude of thermally induced stresses has been conducted. It has been observed that the stresses in more compliant bonding systems such as soft lead/tin and indium solders are significantly lower than those in hard solder and epoxy systems. The marked dependence upon heating and cooling rate has proven to be a determining factor in the prediction of failure in both the indium and tin/lead solder systems. This study has shown that the harder or higher melting solders are less susceptible to thermal cycling effects but that they are more likely to fail during initial processing operations. Recommendations are made concerning the optimum bonding system for the achievement of maximum reliability.
Kinser, D. L.↗
The relationship between reliability and bonding techniques in hybrid microcircuits
Differential thermal expansion was shown to be responsible for many observed failures in ceramic chip capacitors mounted on alumina substrates. It is shown that the mounting techniques used in bonding the capacitors have a marked effect upon the thermally induced mechanical stress and thus the failure rate. A mathematical analysis was conducted of a composite model of the capacitor-substrate system to predict the magnitude of thermally induced stresses. It was experimentally observed that the stresses in more compliant bonding systems such as soft lead tin and indium solders are significantly lower than those in hard solder and epoxy systems. The marked dependence upon heating and cooling rate was proven to be a determining factor in the prediction of failure solder systems. It was found that the harder or higher melting solders are less susceptible to thermal cycling effects but that they are more likely to fail during initial processing operations. Strain gage techniques were used to determine thermally induced expansion stresses of the capacitors and the alumina substrates. The compliance of the different bonding mediums was determined. From the data obtained, several recommendations are made concerning the optimum bonding system for the achievement of maximum reliability.
Caruso, S. V.↗
Validation of Cryogenic Propellant Tank Self-Pressurization
NASA’s near-future long-term space missions necessitate advancements in cryogenic fluid management (CFM), which includes safe and reliable long-term propellant storage. Consequently, NASA STMD (Space Technology Mission Directorate) has established the CFM Portfolio Project to improve CFM technologies for upcoming missions. As a part of CFM Modeling Portfolio, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center’s (MSFC) Fluid Dynamics branch within the Propulsion Systems Department is tasked with assessing and improving computational tools used to support flight projects such as Human Lander System and Commercial Lunar Payload Services. One of the challenging modeling problems is that of self-pressurization of propellant tank due to heat leakage over long time periods. Reduced order and nodal tools find it extremely difficult to accurately predict self-pressurization under transient conditions or where complex flow patterns or thermal gradients exist, and application of 3-D CFD (computational fluid dynamics) simulations is necessary to characterize these problems. Until recently, CFD simulations for these long-term processes (order of hours or days) have been too impractical to conduct due to prohibitive wall time and computational resource requirements. The requisite CFD tool need to be efficient, computationally scalable, modular with ability to incorporate various physics models, and robust enough to not accumulate conservation errors over several hours of simulated time. NASA MSFC’s Loci-Stream CFD tool along with the VOF module is a great candidate to fit this mold. In this paper, we validate Loci-Stream for predicting self-pressurization of a flight scale propellant tank so it can serve as a reliable design and analysis tool for NASA’s CFM application needs. Liquid hydrogen tank pressurization tests carried out at the K-site testing facility provide a reliable data set for this purpose. These tests were simulated using Loci-Stream solver with VOF module as well as a hybrid approach which uses a lumped model for the ullage gas domain and CFD simulation of the liquid propellant. Both are shown to have very good predictive capabilities over multiple K-site experiments.
Hong Q. Yang↗
Validation of Cryogenic Propellant Tank Self-Pressurization
NASA's near-future long-term space missions necessitate advancements in cryogenic fluid management (CFM), which includes safe and reliable long-term propellant storage. Consequently, NASA STMD (Space Technology Mission Directorate) has established the CFM Portfolio Project to improve CFM technologies for upcoming missions. As a part of CFM Modeling Portfolio, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Fluid Dynamics branch within the Propulsion Systems Department is tasked with assessing and improving computational tools used to support flight projects such as Human Lander System and Commercial Lunar Payload Services. One of the challenging modeling problems is that of self-pressurization of propellant tank due to heat leakage over long time periods. Reduced order and nodal tools find it extremely difficult to accurately predict self-pressurization under transient conditions or where complex flow patterns or thermal gradients exist, and application of 3-D CFD (computational fluid dynamics) simulations is necessary to characterize these problems. Until recently, CFD simulations for these long-term processes (order of hours or days) have been too impractical to conduct due to prohibitive wall time and computational resource requirements. The requisite CFD tool need to be efficient, computationally scalable, modular with ability to incorporate various physics models, and robust enough to not accumulate conservation errors over several hours of simulated time. NASA MSFC's Loci-Stream CFD tool along with the VOF module is a great candidate to fit this mold. In this paper, we validate Loci-Stream for predicting self-pressurization of a flight scale propellant tank so it can serve as a reliable design and analysis tool for NASA's CFM application needs. Liquid hydrogen tank pressurization tests carried out at the K-site testing facility provide a reliable data set for this purpose. These tests were simulated using Loci-Stream solver with VOF module as well as a hybrid approach which uses a lumped model for the ullage gas domain and CFD simulation of the liquid propellant. Both are shown to have very good predictive capabilities over multiple K-site experiments.
cryogenic fluid management↗
Main memory unit
The development of a main memory unit (MMU) for the space ultrareliable module computer (SUMC) model HTC is discussed. The design, fabrication, and test of basic memory modules (BMM) which were to be used in the design and construction of the MMU are described. The BMM was designed from state-of-the-art technologies which included large scale integration devices mounted and interconnected on a substrate to form a functional module to be utilized in the MMU development. A SUMC memory system design study is discussed which addressed itself to the BMM design and analysis to be conducted to determine the most efficient organization of the BMM in order to establish such modularity features as: word length expandability without redesign, high reliability, and fault tolerance. One MMU was designed, fabricated, tested, and delivered which will be electrical and mechanically compatible with the hybrid technology computer (HTC) model of the SUMC family of computers. The MMU will contain a storage capacity of 8196 36 bit words which includes a parity bit for each 8 bit byte of data.
Source record↗
Dynamic Nucleation of Supercooled Melts and Measurement of the Surface Tension and Viscosity
We investigate the phenomenon of acoustic pressure-induced nucleation by using a novel approach involving the large amplitude resonant radial oscillations and collapse of a single bubble intentionally injected into a supercooled liquid. Using a combination of previously developed and proven techniques, the bubble is suspended in a fluid host by an ultrasonic field which supplies both the levitation capability as well as the forcing of the radial oscillations. We observe the effects of an increase in pressure (due to bubble collapse) in a region no larger than 100 microns within the supercooled melt to rigorously probe the hypothesis of pressure-induced nucleation of the solid phase. The use of single bubbles operating in narrow temporal and spatial scales will allow the direct and unambiguous correlation between the origin and location of the generation of the disturbance and the location and timing of the nucleation event. In a companion research effort, we are developing novel techniques for the non-contact measurements of the surface tension and viscosity of highly viscous supercooled liquids. Currently used non-invasive methods of surface tension measurement for the case of undercooled liquids generally rely of the quantitative determination of the resonance frequencies of drop shape oscillations, of the dynamics of surface capillary waves, or of the velocity of streaming flows. These methods become quickly ineffective when the liquid viscosity rises to a significant value. An alternate and accurate method which would be applicable to liquids of significant viscosity is therefore needed. We plan to develop such a capability by measuring the equilibrium shape of levitated undercooled melt droplets as they undergo solid-body rotation. The experimental measurement of the characteristic point of transition (bifurcation point) between axisymmetric and two-lobed shapes will be used to calculate the surface tension of the liquid. Such an approach has already been validated through the experimental verification of numerical modeling results. The experimental approach involves levitation, melting, and solidification of undercooled droplets using a hybrid ultrasonic-electrostatic technique in both a gaseous as well as a vacuum environment. A shape relaxation method will be investigated in order to derive a reliable method to measure the viscosity of undercooled melts. The analysis of the monotonic relaxation to equilibrium shape of a drastically deformed and super-critically damped free drop has been used to derive interfacial tension of immiscible liquid combinations where one of the component has high viscosity. A standard approach uses the initial elongation of a droplet through shear flows, but an equivalent method could involve the initial deformation of a drop levitated in a gas by ultrasonic radiation pressure, electric stresses, or even solid body rotation. The dynamic behavior of the free drop relaxing back to equilibrium shape will be modeled, and its characteristic time dependence should provide a quantitative means to evaluate the liquid viscosity.
Trinh, E. H.↗