MULTILEVEL QUASI MONTE CARLO FOR SYSTEM RELIABILITY THEORY
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Eng, Ben [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), L↗
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Results for “Reliability theory”
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Theory of reliable systems
The analysis and design of reliable systems are discussed. The attributes of system reliability studied are fault tolerance, diagnosability, and reconfigurability. Objectives of the study include: to determine properties of system structure that are conducive to a particular attribute; to determine methods for obtaining reliable realizations of a given system; and to determine how properties of system behavior relate to the complexity of fault tolerant realizations. A list of 34 references is included.
Meyer, J. F.↗
Theory of reliable systems
Research is reported in the program to refine the current notion of system reliability by identifying and investigating attributes of a system which are important to reliability considerations, and to develop techniques which facilitate analysis of system reliability. Reliability analysis, and on-line fault diagnosis are discussed.
Meyer, J. F.↗
Theory of reliable systems
An attempt was made to refine the current notion of system reliability by identifying and investigating attributes of a system which are important to reliability considerations. Techniques which facilitate analysis of system reliability are included. Special attention was given to fault tolerance, diagnosability, and reconfigurability characteristics of systems.
Meyer, J. F.↗
Equivalence of physically based statistical fracture theories for reliability analysis of ceramics in multiaxial loading
The present comparison of the Batdorf (1974) flaw density and orientation distribution approach with Evans' (1978) elemental strength approach, with a view to identities in fracture criteria and distribution functions, notes that despite their fundamental differences in multiaxial loading fracture probabilities, the two approaches yield identical predictions. Lamon's (1988) assertion to the contrary, in light of different theoretical predictions by the two methods for the case of alumina disks loaded in flexure, is demonstrated to be in error.
Chao, Luen-Yuan↗
A definition of system reliability
Set theory and probability theory for defining total and partial system reliability
PROBABILITY THEORY↗
Exploring the Limits of the Data-Model-Theory Synergy: “Hot” MW Transitions for Rovibrational IR Studies
In order to further improve the accuracy of rovibrational IR line lists generated from the “Best Theory +Reliable High-resolution Experiment” (BTRHE) strategy from 0.01-0.05 cm-1, or 300-1500 MHz, to ~10 MHz, we explore the current limits of the Data-Model-Theory synergy by examining the accuracy and consistency of existing data, then propose that “hot” bands in microwave (MW) spectra is the solution we need for future enhancements. The Ames SO2 J=0-20 rovibrational energy levels computed on the semi-empirically refined Ames-2 potential energy surface (PES) are fit to the Effective Hamiltonian (EH) model regularly used in the experimental infrared (IR) analysis for SO2 isotopologues. In the fitted EH(Ames) model, the rotational constants A/B/C and all 5 quartic centrifugal distortion constants display clear, systematic, and consistent patterns along the vibrational state energy or quanta. Such consistent patterns may facilitate the vibrational assignments for MW hot bands and extract more information from high temperature MW spectra. Some EH(Expt) analyses were carried out with the lowest order Coriolis Coupling term, C1. Their constants should not be directly compared with other EH(Expt) and EH(Ames) results. After excluding them, our = EH(Ames)- EH(Expt) analyses for 5 isotopologues (626, 636, 646, 628 and 828) indicates some loss of accuracy and consistency starting from vibrational states as low as 22 or 1000 cm-1. Some EH parameters, e.g. K, may have relative deviations as large as 50-100% and totally lose any recognizable patterns. This simply means that current EH(Expt) models do not have the system-wide consistency we need to further refine the EH(Ames) and Ames rovibrational IR line lists. A large part of such defects are probably inherited from the limited precision of experimental line positions, i.e. 1E-3 ~ 1E-4 cm-1, or 3-30 MHz. This is confirmed in a series of truncation tests using the Ames data. Although the EH(Ames) consistency may help identify unreliable rovibrational EH(Expt) parameters, and make reliable predictions for minor isotopologues and unobserved vibrational bands, we believe only the highly accurate “hot” MW transitions can provide real enhancements for EH(Expt) accuracy and consistency. “Hot” MW spectra should play a more significant role in the future synergy of Data, Model, and Theory in the field of rovibrational IR studies.
Xinchuan Huang↗
Statistical methods and neural network approaches for classification of data from multiple sources
Statistical methods for classification of data from multiple data sources are investigated and compared to neural network models. A problem with using conventional multivariate statistical approaches for classification of data of multiple types is in general that a multivariate distribution cannot be assumed for the classes in the data sources. Another common problem with statistical classification methods is that the data sources are not equally reliable. This means that the data sources need to be weighted according to their reliability but most statistical classification methods do not have a mechanism for this. This research focuses on statistical methods which can overcome these problems: a method of statistical multisource analysis and consensus theory. Reliability measures for weighting the data sources in these methods are suggested and investigated. Secondly, this research focuses on neural network models. The neural networks are distribution free since no prior knowledge of the statistical distribution of the data is needed. This is an obvious advantage over most statistical classification methods. The neural networks also automatically take care of the problem involving how much weight each data source should have. On the other hand, their training process is iterative and can take a very long time. Methods to speed up the training procedure are introduced and investigated. Experimental results of classification using both neural network models and statistical methods are given, and the approaches are compared based on these results.
Benediktsson, Jon Atli↗
Analysis of whisker-toughened ceramic components: A design engineer's viewpoint
The use of ceramics components in gas turbines, cutting tools, and heat exchangers has been limited by the relatively low flaw tolerance of monolithic ceramics. The development of whisker toughened ceramic composites offers the potential for considerable improvement in fracture toughness as well as strength. However, the variability of strength is still too high for the application of deterministic design approaches. Several phenomenological reliability theories proposed for this material system are reviewed and the development is reported of a public domain computer algorithm. This algorithm, when coupled with a general purpose finite element program, predicts the fast fracture reliability of a structural component under multiaxial loading conditions.
Duffy, Stephen F.↗
Fatigue Reliability of Gas Turbine Engine Structures
The results of an investigation are described for fatigue reliability in engine structures. The description consists of two parts. Part 1 is for method development. Part 2 is a specific case study. In Part 1, the essential concepts and practical approaches to damage tolerance design in the gas turbine industry are summarized. These have evolved over the years in response to flight safety certification requirements. The effect of Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) methods on these methods is also reviewed. Assessment methods based on probabilistic fracture mechanics, with regard to both crack initiation and crack growth, are outlined. Limit state modeling techniques from structural reliability theory are shown to be appropriate for application to this problem, for both individual failure mode and system-level assessment. In Part 2, the results of a case study for the high pressure turbine of a turboprop engine are described. The response surface approach is used to construct a fatigue performance function. This performance function is used with the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) to determine the probability of failure and the sensitivity of the fatigue life to the engine parameters for the first stage disk rim of the two stage turbine. A hybrid combination of regression and Monte Carlo simulation is to use incorporate time dependent random variables. System reliability is used to determine the system probability of failure, and the sensitivity of the system fatigue life to the engine parameters of the high pressure turbine. 'ne variation in the primary hot gas and secondary cooling air, the uncertainty of the complex mission loading, and the scatter in the material data are considered.
Cruse, Thomas A.↗
Accurate Infrared Line Lists for 20 Isotopologues of CS 2 at Room Temperature
To facilitate atmospheric and spectroscopic studies of carbon disulfide, or CS 2 , in both planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres, we adopt the “Best Theory + Reliable High-resolution Experiment” algorithm to generate semiempirical IR line lists for the 20 most abundant CS 2 isotopologues, denoted as Ames-296K. The IR lists are computed using the Ames-1 potential energy surface, refined using the experimental transition set and an ab initio dipole moment surface fitted from CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pV(T/Q/5+d)Z dipoles extrapolated to a one-particle basis set limit. The IR lists cover the range of 0–10,000 cm -1 , with an S 296K cutoff at 10 -31 cm -1 /molecule·cm -2 (abundance included). A “natural” IR line list at 296 K includes about 10 million lines of the 20 isotopologues, with their intensities scaled by the corresponding abundances. The zero-point energy, partition functions, and abundances are reported for each isotopologue. The energy levels in the global effective Hamiltonian model for 12 C 32 S 2 are adopted to improve the line position accuracy. This new IR list for the main isotopologue is denoted as A+I.296K. Reliable HITRAN2020 line positions are also utilized to improve the accuracy of the 32 S 12 C 34 S, 32 S 12 C 33 S, and 32 S 13 C 32 S isotopologue line lists. The final composite line list is validated against Pacific Northwest National Laboratory experimental cross sections, showing excellent agreement. The agreement supports the quality of the composite line list and the power of synergy between experiment and theory. The new data are proposed for use in updating and expanding the CS 2 data in HITRAN and other high-resolution IR databases. Supplementary files are available in Zenodo and AHED.
Exoplanet atmospheric composition↗
Theory and design of reliable spacecraft data systems
Theory and techniques applicable to design, analysis, and fault diagnosis of reliable spacecraft data systems
Source record↗
Reliability analysis applied to structural tests
The application of reliability theory to predict, from structural fatigue test data, the risk of failure of a structure under service conditions because its load-carrying capability is progressively reduced by the extension of a fatigue crack, is considered. The procedure is applicable to both safe-life and fail-safe structures and, for a prescribed safety level, it will enable an inspection procedure to be planned or, if inspection is not feasible, it will evaluate the life to replacement. The theory has been further developed to cope with the case of structures with initial cracks, such as can occur in modern high-strength materials which are susceptible to the formation of small flaws during the production process. The method has been applied to a structure of high-strength steel and the results are compared with those obtained by the current life estimation procedures. This has shown that the conventional methods can be unconservative in certain cases, depending on the characteristics of the structure and the design operating conditions. The suitability of the probabilistic approach to the interpretation of the results from full-scale fatigue testing of aircraft structures is discussed and the assumptions involved are examined.
Diamond, P.↗
Prediction of sonic boom at a focus
The behavior of sonic boom at a focus has been reviewed for the purpose of extending present sonic boom computational methods to include focal zones. The geometry of a focal zone - whether a smooth caustic, a cusped caustic, or a perfect focus to a point - determines the character of focused signatures. The seeming contradiction of various experimental data can be resolved by noting these differences. A ray acoustic analysis has been developed for quantitative determination of caustic geometry. The only reliable theory presently available for signatures at a focus is for a smooth caustic. There has been some controversy between theoretical and experimental values of a constant in the scaling law for this case. It has been found that this discrepancy can be resolved by accounting for the finite thickness of real sonic boom shock waves. These findings have been incorporated into an existing sonic boom computer program.
Plotkin, K. J.↗
Simultaneous stabilization and simultaneous pole placement by nonswitching dynamic compensation
The 'simultaneous stabilization problem' is defined and theorems are proposed for its solution. The problem consists in answering the question: given an r-tuple G sub 1(s), G sub r(s) of p x m proper transfer functions, does there exist a compensator K(s) such that the closed loop systems G sub 1(s) (I+K(s)G sub 1(s)) (-1), G sub r(s) (I+K(s) G sub r(s)) (-1) are (internally) stable. This question arises in reliability theory, where G sub 2(s), G sub r(s) represents a plant G sub 1(s) operating in various modes of failure and K(s) is a nonswitching stabilizing compensator. It is important in the stability analysis and design of a plant which can be switched into various operating modes. The simultaneous stabilization problem can also apply to the stabilization of a nonlinear system which is linearized at several equilibria. Conditions are defined for pole placement and the generalized Sylvestor matrix is discussed.
Ghosh, B. K.↗
Vector wind profile gust model
A five parameter gamma distribution (BGD) having two shape parameters, two location parameters, and a correlation parameter is investigated. This general BGD is expressed as a double series and as a single series of the modified bessel function, and reduces to the known special case for equal shape parameters. Practical functions for computer evaluations for the general BGD and for special cases are presented. Applications are to be bound in reliability theory, signal noise, and meteorology. Applications to wind gust modeling for the ascent flight of the space shuttle are illustrated.
Adelfang, S. I.↗
Simultaneous stabilization and simultaneous pole-placement by nonswitching dynamic compensation
The 'simultaneous stabilization problem' is defined and theorems are proposed for its solution. The problem consists in answering the question: given an r-tuple G sub 1(s), G sub r(s) of p x m proper transfer functions, does there exist a compensator K(s) such that the closed loop systems G sub 1(s) (I+K(s)G sub 1(s)) (-1), G sub r(s) (I+K(s) G sub r(s)) (-1) are (internally) stable. This question arises in reliability theory, where G sub 2(s), G sub r(s) represents a plant G sub 1(s) operating in various modes of failure and K(s) is a nonswitching stabilizing compensator. It is important in the stability analysis and design of a plant which can be switched into various operating modes. The simultaneous stabilization problem can also apply to the stabilization of a nonlinear system which is linearized at several equilibria. Conditions are defined for pole placement and the generalized Sylvestor matrix is discussed. Previously announced in STAR as N82-31031
Ghosh, B. K.↗
Some properties of a 5-parameter bivariate probability distribution
A five-parameter bivariate gamma distribution having two shape parameters, two location parameters and a correlation parameter was developed. This more general bivariate gamma distribution reduces to the known four-parameter distribution. The five-parameter distribution gives a better fit to the gust data. The statistical properties of this general bivariate gamma distribution and a hypothesis test were investigated. Although these developments have come too late in the Shuttle program to be used directly as design criteria for ascent wind gust loads, the new wind gust model has helped to explain the wind profile conditions which cause large dynamic loads. Other potential applications of the newly developed five-parameter bivariate gamma distribution are in the areas of reliability theory, signal noise, and vibration mechanics.
Tubbs, J. D.↗