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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Reachability Analysis for FollowerStopper: Safety Analysis and Experimental Results

Motivated by earlier work and the developer of a new algorithm, the FollowerStopper, this article uses reachability analysis to verify the safety of the FollowerStopper algorithm, which is a controller designed for dampening stop-and-go traffic waves. With more than 1100 miles of driving data collected by our physical platform, we validate our analysis results by comparing it to human driving behaviors. The FollowerStopper controller has been demonstrated to dampen stop-and-go traffic waves at low speed, but previous analysis on its relative safety has been limited to upper and lower bounds of acceleration. To expand upon previous analysis, reachability analysis is used to investigate the safety at the speeds it was originally tested and also at higher speeds. Two formulations of safety analysis with different criteria are shown: distance-based and time headway-based. The FollowerStopper is considered safe with distance-based criterion. However, simulation results demonstrate that the FollowerStopper is not representative of human drivers - it follows too closely behind vehicles, specifically at a distance human would deem as unsafe. On the other hand, under the time headway-based safety analysis, the FollowerStopper is not considered safe anymore. A modified FollowerStopper is proposed to satisfy time-based safety criterion. Simulation results of the proposed FollowerStopper shows that its response represents human driver behavior better.

Chou, Fang-Chieh↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Approach for Uncertainty Propagation and Reachability Analysis in Dynamical Systems

In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach for uncertainty propagation and reachability analysis in a dynamical system. The proposed approach relies on the linear lifting of a nonlinear system using linear Perron-Frobenius (P-F) and Koopman operators. Here, the uncertainty can be characterized in terms of the moments of a probability density function. We demonstrate how the P-F and Koopman operators are used for propagating the moments. Time-series data is used for the finite-dimensional approximation of the linear operators, thereby enabling data-driven approach for moment propagation. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scalable Distributed Reachability Analysis for Cyber-Physical Networked Microgrids with Communication Latency

Due to the high penetration of power-electronic-interfaced distributed energy resources (DERs), a microgrid's inertia is significantly reduced, making it sensitive to cyberand physical operational changes. When multiple microgrids are interconnected to form networked microgrids for improving system's resilience, the changes of one microgrid can quickly escalate to the overall system. In cyber-physical networked microgrids, the communication latency varies a lot. To efficiently quantify the impact of the communication latency on the dynamics of networked microgrids, a scalable distributed reachability analysis approach is presented in this paper. Reachable sets are calculated for each microgrid and then composited for the overall system dynamics evaluation. Extensive tests in the full paper will demonstrate the influence of communication latency on system dynamics and validate reachable sets can bound a system's all dynamic trajectories subject to latency changes. The test results also offer an insight into designing and managing the communication network for enhancing the system's resilience.

Li, Yan↗

DOE OSTI2024

MFANS 2024 - Formally Proving Characteristics of Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems (CPS) are engineered systems that rely on the smooth integration of computational algorithms and physical elements. This integration presents new challenges for verifying that systems will behave as expected. The goal of this presentation is to present current challenges and potential solutions for the formal verification of cyber-physical systems. For cyber systems, formal methods refer to systematically rigorous mathematical techniques employed in the specification, development, analysis, and verification of both software and hardware systems. Recent advancements in computer science have yielded sophisticated tools specifically designed to address challenges associated with formal methods in complex systems. These tools leverage various foundational concepts such as logic, formal languages, program semantics, type systems, type theory, and automata theory. A notable achievement in the application of formal methods is the seL4 microkernel, claimed to be the first general-purpose operating-system kernel to be verified. Its proof implies the absence of bugs and guarantees that the kernel meets specifications. For physical systems, dynamic and control theory has a history of using rigorous analytic techniques to prove functional correctness. Lyapunov, optimal, classical, modern, and robust control theories all provide rigorous mathematical methods both to analyze system performance and to design controller that can be guaranteed to meet certain objectives. Recent computational techniques like level set theory and reachability analysis provide assertions that a system's state will avoid unsafe regions. Even though success has been independently achieved for cyber systems and physical systems, the integration of such systems creates new challenges. In particular, there is an obvious discrepancy between finite-state machines and infinite-state systems, resulting in different approaches for modeling and analyzing these system. While it is possible to simulate hybrid systems, this provides only a demonstration of a performance and not proof. For hybrid systems, current formal methods and system analysis approaches typically require a workarounds to work on hybrid systems like CPS. This paper will outline the state of the art and limits of current practice for formally verifying CPS and will identify possible research directions that require attention.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Safe Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Dynamics and Control

This tutorial paper focuses on safe physics-informed machine learning in the context of dynamics and control, providing a comprehensive overview of how to integrate physical models and safety guarantees. As machine learning techniques enhance the modeling and control of complex dynamical systems, ensuring safety and stability remains a critical challenge, especially in safety-critical applications like autonomous vehicles, robotics, medical decision-making, and energy systems. We explore various approaches for embedding and ensuring safety constraints, including structural priors, Lyapunov and Control Barrier Functions, predictive control, projections, and robust optimization techniques. Additionally, we delve into methods for uncertainty quantification and safety verification, including reachability analysis and neural network verification tools, which help validate that control policies remain within safe operating bounds even in uncertain environments. The paper includes illustrative examples demonstrating the implementation aspects of safe learning frameworks that combine the strengths of data-driven approaches with the rigor of physical principles, offering a path toward the safe control of complex dynamical systems.

Drgona, Jan↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Data Processing Pipeline for Socio-Technical Network Analysis [Slides]

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Data Processing Pipeline for Adversarial Socio-Technical Network Analysis

With the rapid adoption of emerging technologies, there is a need to catalog and model sociotechnical interdependencies that have been historically used to influence the operation of Critical Infrastructure networks including the impacts of mergers and acquisitions, hostile takeovers, and foreign investment. Our research intends to address this need with two primary contributions. First, we have developed a data curation and processing pipeline to generate sociotechnical networks extracted from a variety of data sources including SEC filings and infrastructure asset databases. The pipeline, implemented in Apache Airflow, extracts and normalizes the representation of entities and relations, specified within ontologies. Our intent is to provide an extensible, machine-actionable approach to quickly communicate such models, reproduce previous results, and adapt them to new, unanticipated situations. Second, networks produced by our pipeline enable the development of graph-theoretic metrics that consider the properties of network components in addition to its topology. Metadata associated with network components---whether semantic, temporal, or geospatial---affects the alignment of generated networks with assumptions underlying complexity metrics. Validation of generated networks relative to component types defined by an ontology, may allow the research community to adapt metrics to the semantics of the domains being studied. Generated networks may be processed as knowledge, dynamic, or spatial graphs and enables a variety of analyses including automated reasoning and measures of network complexity. Automated reasoning views extracted entities and relations as a knowledge graph; this enables application of inference rules that represent historically-attested adversarial business methods and applies that behavior to a specific geographic context. Measures of network complexity, including degree distribution, reachability analyses, temporal analysis, and community detection can be adapted to indicate adversarial organizational influence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

GPS Spoofing Mitigation and Timing Risk Analysis in Networked Phasor Measurement Units via Stochastic Reachability

To address phasor measurement unit (PMU) vulnerability to spoofing, we propose the use of a set-valued state estimation technique known as stochastic reachability (SR)-based distributed Kalman filter (DKF) that computes secure global positioning system (GPS) timing across a network of receivers. Utilizing SR, we estimate not only GPS time but also its stochastic reachable set, which is parameterized by probabilistic zonotope (p-Zonotope). While requiring known measurement error bounds in only non-spoofed conditions, we designed a two-tiered approach. We first performed measurement-level spoofing mitigation via deviation of a measurement innovation from its expected p-Zonotope. We then performed state-level timing risk analysis via a determination of the intersection probability of the estimated p-Zonotope with an unsafe set that violates IEEE C37.118.1a-2014 standards. Finally, we validated our SR-DKF algorithm by subjecting it to a simulated receiver network to coordinate signal-level spoofing. We demonstrate improved timing accuracy and successful spoofing mitigation via the use of our SR-DKF algorithm. We also validated the robustness of the estimated timing risk as the number of receivers were varied.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving Cyber Situational Understanding

Effective cybersecurity operations require the ability to analyze large amounts of information to assess security risks and formulate defensive strategies against adversaries. This has become more complex in recent years as the sprawl and interconnectivity of devices grows through implementation of virtualization, cloud computing, and Internet of Things (IoT). The amount of data and analysis required for effective cybersecurity command and control decisions far exceeds humans’ capacity to perform manually. We characterize the analysis problem as cyber situational understanding. The research presented to improve cyber situational understanding focuses on vulnerability analysis and threat intelligence. Regarding vulnerabilities, entities must analyze and plan work for between thousands and tens of thousands of software vulnerabilities annually. Entities heavily use network firewalls to limit vulnerability exposure. As a result, some of these vulnerabilities permit exposure to adversarial exploitation, whereas others are inaccessible and therefore present negligible risk of exploitation. Distinguishing between high and low risk software vulnerabilities requires a deep understanding of the vulnerability, network firewall protection, and characteristics of the targeted device. This problem is solved by extracting network service features from vulnerability data features using both machine-learning and natural language processing. Then, the network firewall topology is parsed to determine which vulnerabilities are reachable by adversaries. Ultimately, a state-based safety analysis ascertains which vulnerabilities are unsafe. A related vulnerability analysis problem occurs in cybersecurity operations when associating an entity’s hardware and software assets to public vulnerability databases. Assets often reveal hardware and software through installation artifacts and network service identification, and entities store these artifacts in inventory databases. However, software and hardware vendors apply a standard Common Platform Enumeration (CPE) naming convention when publicly reporting vulnerabilities. Associating these two datasets often requires many hours to days of manual inspection. The proposed solution automates the mapping approach of human analysts using fuzzy matching techniques, natural language processing, and, ultimately, machine learning to present a small set of recommendations for mapping the two datasets. The result significantly reduces human analysis time and reduces the occurrence of false positives in vulnerability notifications. Finally, cyber threat intelligence (CTI) requires associating cyber observable artifacts, such as IP addresses, URIs, and file hashes, with cyber threat tactics, techniques, and procedures. Unfortunately, most CTI data is compartmentalized across multiple organizations and cannot be shared due to the legal and reputational risk with cyber threat being associated with the entity. The approach to solving this problem inovlves using a distributed ledger with anonymous token spending and authentication. This allows a consortium of semi-trusted entities to share the workload of curating CTI for a threat sharing community’s cooperative benefit.

Huff, Philip↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust trajectory-constrained frequency control for microgrids considering model linearization error

Grid supportive modes integrated within inverter-based resources can improve the frequency response of renewable-rich microgrids. The synthesis of grid supportive modes to guarantee frequency trajectory constraints under a predefined disturbance set is challenging but essential. To tackle this challenge, a numerical optimal control (NOC)-based control synthesis methodology is proposed. Without loss of generality, a wind-diesel fed microgrid is studied, where we aim to design grid supportive functions in the wind turbine. In the control design, linearized models are used, and the linearization-induced errors are quantitatively analyzed by reachability and interval arithmetics and represented in the form of interval uncertainties. Then, the NOC problem can be formulated into a robust mixed-integer linear program. The control structure is strategically configured into two levels to realize online deployment. The proposed control is verified on the modified 33-node microgrid with a full-order three-phase nonlinear model in Simulink. In conclusion, the simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed control paradigm and the necessity of considering linearization-induced uncertainty.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unraveling trace anomaly of supradense matter via neutron star compactness scaling

The trace anomaly Δ ≡ 1/3 −𝑃/𝜖 =1/3 −𝜙 quantifies the possibly broken conformal symmetry in supradense matter under pressure 𝑃 at energy density 𝜖. Perturbative QCD (pQCD) predicts a vanishing Δ at extremely high energy or baryon densities when the conformal symmetry is realized but its behavior at intermediate densities reachable in neutron stars (NSs) is still very uncertain. The extraction of Δ from NS observations strongly depends on the employed model for nuclear equation of state (EOS). Using the IPAD-TOV method based on an intrinsic and perturbative analysis of the dimensionless (IPAD) Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff (TOV) equations that are further verified numerically by using 10 5 EOSs generated randomly with a metamodel in a very broad EOS parameter space constrained by terrestrial nuclear experiments and astrophysical observations, here we first show that the compactness 𝜉 ≡ 𝐺⁡𝑀 NS /𝑅⁢𝑐 2 ≡ 𝑀 NS /𝑅 of a NS with mass 𝑀 NS and radius 𝑅 scales very accurately with $\bar{Π}$ c ≡ $Π$ c · (1 +18⁢X/25) ≡ X/(1 +3⁢X 2 +4⁢X) · (1 +18⁢X/25) where X ≡ 𝜙 c = 𝑃 c /𝜖 c is the ratio of pressure over energy density at NS centers. The scaling of NS compactness thus enables one to readily read off the central trace anomaly Δ c = 1/3 −X directly from the observational data of either the mass-radius or red-shift measurements. Finally, we then demonstrate indeed that the available NS data themselves from recent X-ray and gravitational wave observations can determine model insensitively the trace anomaly as a function of energy density in NS cores, providing a stringent test of existing NS models and a clear guidance in a new direction for further understanding the nature and EOS of supradense matter.

nuclear astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards Automated Assessment of Vulnerability Exposures in Security Operations

Current approaches for risk analysis of software vulnerabilities using manual assessment and numeric scoring do not complete fast enough to keep pace with the maintenance work rate to patch and mitigate the vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new approach to modeling software vulnerability risk in the context of the network environment and firewall configuration. In the approach, vulnerability features are automatically matched up with networking, target asset, and adversary features to determine whether adversaries can exploit a vulnerability. The ability of adversaries to reach a vulnerability is modeled by automatically identifying the network services associated with vulnerabilities through a pipeline of machine learning and natural language processing and automatically analyzing network reachability. Our results show that the pipeline can identify network services accurately. We also find that only a small number of vulnerabilities pose real risks to a system. However, if left unmitigated, adversarial reach to vulnerabilities may extend to nullify the effect of firewall countermeasures.

Huff, Philip↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Control Behavior in Eco-Driving Speed Optimization Using Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle

The energy efficiency of autonomous vehicles can be improved by selecting an optimized speed profile. Energy savings can be maximized by performing control optimization with knowledge of the powertrain characteristics and future driving conditions. Previous studies have shown that Pontryagin’s minimum principle (PMP) performs well in vehicle speed optimization problems. Building on the methods proposed in previous studies, the contribution of this study is to derive meaningful observations from the concepts and results of PMP to enhance the understanding of the control problem. In particular, the switching behavior of the control mode is analyzed with supportive variables, such as ξ and mv, which dictates the changes in the control modes. Additionally, the existence of the singular control is analyzed, which helps in understanding the cruise driving in the control problem. Finally, we obtain several solutions that satisfy various boundary conditions along with a map of the reachable states, and discuss the impact of cruise driving. This is helpful for designing practical control concepts for real-world applications based on this map. Previous studies have contributed significantly to this control problem; however, this study provides a better understanding of the issue and offers guidance and inspiration for future real-world applications based on these meaningful observations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Iridium-Doped Nanosized Zn–Al Layered Double Hydroxides as Efficient Water Oxidation Catalysts

Layered double hydroxides (LDHs) are an ideal platform to host catalytic metal centers for water oxidation (WO) owing to the high accessibility of water to the interlayer region, which makes all centers potentially reachable and activated. In this paper, we report the syntheses of three iridium-doped zinc–aluminum LDHs (Ir-LDHs) nanomaterials (1–3, with about 80 nm of planar size and a thickness of 8 nm as derived by field emission scanning electron microscopy and powder X-ray diffraction studies, respectively), carried out in the confined aqueous environment of reverse micelles, through a very simple and versatile procedure. These materials exhibit excellent catalytic performances in WO driven by NaIO 4 at neutral pH and 25 °C, with an iridium content as low as 0.5 mol % (~0.8 wt %), leading to quantitative oxygen yields (based on utilized NaIO 4 , turnover number up to ~10,000). Nanomaterials 1–3 display the highest ever reported turnover frequency values (up to 402 min –1 ) for any heterogeneous and heterogenized catalyst, comparable only to those of the most efficient molecular iridium catalysts, tested under similar reaction conditions. The boost in activity can be traced to the increased surface area and pore volume (>5 times and 1 order of magnitude, respectively, higher than those of micrometric materials of size 0.3–1 μm) estimated for the nanosized particles, which guarantee higher noble metal accessibility. X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) studies suggest that 1–3 nanomaterials, as-prepared and after catalysis, contain a mixture of isolated, single octahedral Ir(III) sites, with no evidence of Ir–Ir scattering from second-nearest neighbors, excluding the presence of IrO 2 nanoparticles. The combination of the results obtained from XAS, elemental analysis, and ionic chromatography strongly suggests that iridium is embedded in the brucite-like structure of LDHs, having four hydroxyls and two chlorides as first neighbors. These results demonstrate that nanometric LDHs can be successfully exploited to engineer efficient WOCs, minimizing the amount of iridium used, consistent with the principle of the noble-metal atom economy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗