Rare Event Sampling Improves Mercury Instability Statistics
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Dorian S. Abbot↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Rare events”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Investigation of a rare event where the polar ionospheric reverse convection potential does not saturate during a period of extreme northward IMF solar wind driving
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C. Robert Clauer↗
Chance and necessity in the selection of nucleic acid catalysts
In Tom Stoppard's famous play [Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead], the ill-fated heroes toss a coin 101 times. The first 100 times they do so the coin lands heads up. The chance of this happening is approximately 1 in 10(30), a sequence of events so rare that one might argue that it could only happen in such a delightful fiction. Similarly rare events, however, may underlie the origins of biological catalysis. What is the probability that an RNA, DNA, or protein molecule of a given random sequence will display a particular catalytic activity? The answer to this question determines whether a collection of such sequences, such as might result from prebiotic chemistry on the early earth, is extremely likely or unlikely to contain catalytically active molecules, and hence whether the origin of life itself is a virtually inevitable consequence of chemical laws or merely a bizarre fluke. The fact that a priori estimates of this probability, given by otherwise informed chemists and biologists, ranged from 10(-5) to 10(-50), inspired us to begin to address the question experimentally. As it turns out, the chance that a given random sequence RNA molecule will be able to catalyze an RNA polymerase-like phosphoryl transfer reaction is close to 1 in 10(13), rare enough, to be sure, but nevertheless in a range that is comfortably accessible by experiment. It is the purpose of this Account to describe the recent advances in combinatorial biochemistry that have made it possible for us to explore the abundance and diversity of catalysts existing in nucleic acid sequence space.
Review, Tutorial↗
Better, Cheaper, Faster Molecular Dynamics
Recent, revolutionary progress in genomics and structural, molecular and cellular biology has created new opportunities for molecular-level computer simulations of biological systems by providing vast amounts of data that require interpretation. These opportunities are further enhanced by the increasing availability of massively parallel computers. For many problems, the method of choice is classical molecular dynamics (iterative solving of Newton's equations of motion). It focuses on two main objectives. One is to calculate the relative stability of different states of the system. A typical problem that has' such an objective is computer-aided drug design. Another common objective is to describe evolution of the system towards a low energy (possibly the global minimum energy), "native" state. Perhaps the best example of such a problem is protein folding. Both types of problems share the same difficulty. Often, different states of the system are separated by high energy barriers, which implies that transitions between these states are rare events. This, in turn, can greatly impede exploration of phase space. In some instances this can lead to "quasi non-ergodicity", whereby a part of phase space is inaccessible on time scales of the simulation. To overcome this difficulty and to extend molecular dynamics to "biological" time scales (millisecond or longer) new physical formulations and new algorithmic developments are required. To be efficient they should account for natural limitations of multi-processor computer architecture. I will present work along these lines done in my group. In particular, I will focus on a new approach to calculating the free energies (stability) of different states and to overcoming "the curse of rare events". I will also discuss algorithmic improvements to multiple time step methods and to the treatment of slowly decaying, log-ranged, electrostatic effects.
Pohorille, Andrew↗
Assessing the Likelihood of Rare Medical Events in Astronauts
Despite over half a century of manned space flight, the space flight community is only now coming to fully assess the short and long term medical dangers of exposure to reduced gravity environments. Further, as new manned spacecraft are designed and with the advent of commercial flight capabilities to the general public, a full understanding of medical risk becomes even more critical for maintaining and understanding mission safety and crew health. To address these critical issues, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Human Research Program (HRP) has begun to address the medical hazards with a formalized risk management approach by effectively identifying and attempting to mitigate acute and chronic medical risks to manned space flight. This paper describes NASA Glenn Research Center?s (GRC) efforts to develop a systematic methodology to assess the likelihood of in-flight medical conditions. Using a probabilistic approach, medical risks are assessed using well established and accepted biomedical and human performance models in combination with fundamentally observed data that defines the astronauts? physical conditions, environment and activity levels. Two different examples of space flight risk are used to show the versatility of our approach and how it successfully integrates disparate information to provide HRP decision makers with a valuable source of information which is otherwise lacking.
Myers, Jerry G., Jr.↗
Dust Storms in Space?
Primarily from the Pioneer 8 and 9 results, it is concluded that the flux of picogram sized dust particles near the earth's orbit has been constant to within the observational limits over three years of observation. In particular, since dust streams are not observed, they cannot explain microphone detected events. However, the possibility of rare events due to dust blown directly off a cometary nucleus (such as that reported for Comet Bennett) cannot be completely ruled out.
Roosen, R. G.↗
Predicting Pilot Performance in Off-Nominal Conditions: A Meta-Analysis and Model Validation
Pilot response to off-nominal (very rare) events represents a critical component to understanding the safety of next generation airspace technology and procedures. We describe a meta-analysis designed to integrate the existing data regarding pilot accuracy of detecting rare, unexpected events such as runway incursions in realistic flight simulations. Thirty-five studies were identified and pilot responses were categorized by expectancy, event location, and whether the pilot was flying with a highway-in-the-sky display. All three dichotomies produced large, significant effects on event miss rate. A model of human attention and noticing, N-SEEV, was then used to predict event noticing performance as a function of event salience and expectancy, and retinal eccentricity. Eccentricity is predicted from steady state scanning by the SEEV model of attention allocation. The model was used to predict miss rates for the expectancy, location and highway-in-the-sky (HITS) effects identified in the meta-analysis. The correlation between model-predicted results and data from the meta-analysis was 0.72.
Wickens, C.D.↗
An all sky study of fast X-ray transients
In the HEAO 1 A-2 survey of fast X-ray transients, a search of 2 to 20 keV scanning data was made for brief increases in flux, greater than 4 millicrabs, on timescales approximately 1 to 10 to the 4th s above a 12-hour average. The search was divided into two regions, and all-sky survey of the Galaxy, and a survey of the Magellanic Clouds. In the latter, 37 events were found and identified with 4 of the 5 brighest sources in the LMC, plus 2 as flares from a foreground star. Np X-ray bursts, no gamma-ray bursts, and no events from the SMC were found. In the all-sky survey, after excluding well-known variable sources, out of the equivalent of approximately 104 days of data, 15 events were found which falling into 2 broad categories: flares from coronal sources, roughly isotropically distributed, with optically thin thermal spectra; and harder fast transients apparently distributed near the Galactic plane. The first were identified as flares from ubiquitous active cool dwarf stars. It was hypothesized that the second may have been from distant Be-neutron star binaries. However, at least two of the harder, more luminous events remained unidentified. Future research should examine the nature of these rare events, and how they may fit into a hierarchy of hard fast transients from gamma-ray bursts to outbursts from pulsar systems.
Connors, Alanna↗
Bio-, Magneto- and event-stratigraphy across the K-T boundary
Determining the time and the time structure of rare events in geology can be accomplished by applying three different and independent stratigraphic methods: Biostratigraphy, magneto-stratigraphy and event-stratigraphy. The optimal time resolution of the two former methods is about 1000 years, while by means of event-stratigraphy a resolution of approximately one year can be achieved. For biostratigraphy across the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary micro- and nannofossils have been found best suited. The qualitative and quantitative analyses of minerals and trace elements across the K-T boundary show anomalies on a millimeter scale and permit conclusions regarding the time structure of the K-T event itself. The results of the analyses find a most consistent explanation by the assumption of an extraterrestrial impact. The main portion of the material rain from the atmosphere evidently was deposited within a short time. The long-time components consist of the finest portion of the material rain from the atmosphere and the transported and redeposited fall-out.
Preisinger, A.↗
Simulated Performance of the Orbiting Wide-angle Light Collectors (OWL) Experiment
The Orbiting Wide-angle Light collectors (OWL) experiment is in NASA's mid-term strategic plan and will stereoscopically image, from equatorial orbit, the air fluorescence signal generated by airshowers induced by the ultrahigh energy (E greater than few x 10(exp 19) eV) component of the cosmic radiation. The use of a space-based platform enables an extremely large event acceptance aperture and thus will allow a high statistics measurement of these rare events. Detailed Monte Carlo simulations are required to quantify the physics potential of the mission as well as optimize the instrumental parameters. This paper reports on the results of the GSFC Monte Carlo simulation for two different, OWL instrument baseline designs. These results indicate that, assuming a continuation of the cosmic ray spectrum (theta approximately E(exp -2.75), OWL could have an event rate of 4000 events/year with E greater than or equal to 10(exp 20) eV. Preliminary results, based upon these Monte Carlo simulations, indicate that events can be accurately reconstructed in the detector focal plane arrays for the OWL instrument baseline designs under consideration.
Krizmanic, J. F.↗
Strangelove ocean at era boundaries, terrestrial or extraterrestrial cause
Negative perturbations in carbon-isotope value of calcite in pelagic sediments were found at times of biotic crisis, marking horizons which are, or were proposed as era boundaries: Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T), Permian/Triassic (P/T), and Precambrian/Cambrian (PreC/C). The anomaly was also found at several other mass-extinction horizons, such as terminal Ordovician, Frasnian-Famenian, etc. Studies of K/T boundary indicate that only the planktic fraction of the sediments has the negative isotope anomaly, whereas the benthic fraction has the same value across the boundary. This geochemical signal is thus considered a record of strangelove ocean, or an ocean where isotope fractionation of dissolved carbonate ions in surface waters (by biotic function of planktic organisms) has been significantly reduced because of the drastic reduction of the biomass in the oceans. The reduction of marine biomass at each of the era boundaries was related to chemical pollution of the oceans as a consequence of a catastrophic event; a pH decrease of 0.5 could inhibit the fertility of planktons. Studies of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and meteorite-impact occurrences have indicated a linearly inverse log/log relationship between the magnitude and frequency of events. The frequency of era boundaries in geologic history supports the postulate that the rare events causing those biotic crises were large bolide-impacts.
Hsue, Kenneth J.↗
Changing Characteristics of Tropical Extreme Precipitation-Cloud Regimes in Warmer Climates
In this paper, we have investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by a) control experiment with present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration, b) P4K, same as in a) but with uniform increase by 4K in SST globally, and c) same as in a), but with imposed SST and CO 2 concentration from outputs of coupled E3SM forced by 4xCO 2 concentration. We find that as the surface warms under P4K and 4xCO 2 , both convective and stratiform rain increase. Importantly, there is increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than ocean, more so under 4xCO 2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation is facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation-cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation-cloud-circulation organization from control, P4K to 4xCO 2 . Results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, i.e., P4K, is the primary cause contributing to organization structure resembling the well-known Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) for increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO 2 atmospheric radiative heating, and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplifies the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increase in surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO 2 is the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, the fast and large increase in land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture result in strong reduction in land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, more so under 4xCO 2 , are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, i.e., the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when eventually occur, due to the release of large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.
climate-scale extreme tropical precipitation↗
The Voyager Cosmic Ray Experiment
The Voyager Cosmic Ray Experiment includes seven dE/dx-E telescopes to measure the energy and charge of particles with atomic numbers from 1 to 26 in the energy range 1-500 MeV/nucleon and to measure electron energy in the range from 3 to 110 MeV. Isotopic composition of hydrogen through sulfur in the range up to 75 Mev/nucleon can also be resolved. The electronic systems include a dual-gain, charge sensitive preamplifier, 4096-channel pulse height analyzers for three parameter analysis of selected events, and an event type readout polling scheme to maximize the use of available telemetry space and to enhance the occurrence of rare events in the data. Details of the detector, electronic and mechanical design are presented.
Stilwell, D. E.↗
The Legacy of Episodic Climatic Events in Shaping Temperate, Broadleaf Forests
In humid, broadleaf-dominated forests where gap dynamics and partial canopy mortality appears to dominate the disturbance regime at local scales, paleoecological evidence shows alteration at regional-scales associated with climatic change. Yet, little evidence of these broad-scale events exists in extant forests. To evaluate the potential for the occurrence of large-scale disturbance, we used 76 tree-ring collections spanning approx. 840 000 sq km and 5327 tree recruitment dates spanning approx. 1.4 million sq km across the humid eastern United States. Rotated principal component analysis indicated a common growth pattern of a simultaneous reduction in competition in 22 populations across 61 000 km2. Growth-release analysis of these populations reveals an intense and coherent canopy disturbance from 1775 to 1780, peaking in 1776. The resulting time series of canopy disturbance is so poorly described by a Gaussian distribution that it can be described as ''heavy tailed,'' with most of the years from 1775 to 1780 comprising the heavy-tail portion of the distribution. Historical documents provide no evidence that hurricanes or ice storms triggered the 1775-1780 event. Instead, we identify a significant relationship between prior drought and years with elevated rates of disturbance with an intense drought occurring from 1772 to 1775. We further find that years with high rates of canopy disturbance have a propensity to create larger canopy gaps indicating repeated opportunities for rapid change in species composition beyond the landscape scale. Evidence of elevated, regional-scale disturbance reveals how rare events can potentially alter system trajectory: a substantial portion of old-growth forests examined here originated or were substantially altered more than two centuries ago following events lasting just a few years. Our recruitment data, comprised of at least 21 species and several shade-intolerant species, document a pulse of tree recruitment at the subcontinental scale during the late-1600s suggesting that this event was severe enough to open large canopy gaps. These disturbances and their climatic drivers support the hypothesis that punctuated, episodic, climatic events impart a legacy in broadleaf-dominated forests centuries after their occurrence. Given projections of future drought, these results also reveal the potential for abrupt, meso- to large-scale forest change in broadleaf-dominated forests over future decades.
Climatology↗
Can Machine Learning Reveal Precursors of Reversals of the Geomagnetic Axial Dipole Field?
It is well known that the axial dipole part of Earth’s magnetic field reverses polarity, so that the magnetic North Pole becomes the South Pole and vice versa. The timing of reversals is well documented for the past 160 Myr, but the conditions that lead to a reversal are still not well understood. It is not known if there are reliable ‘precursors’ of reversals (events that indicate that a reversal is upcoming) or what they might be. We investigate if machine learning (ML) techniques can reliably identify precursors of reversals based on time-series of the axial magnetic dipole field. The basic idea is to train a classifier using segments of time-series of the axial magnetic dipole. This training step requires modification of standard ML techniques to account for the fact that we are interested in rare events—a reversal is unusual, while a non-reversing field is the norm. Without our tweak, the ML classifiers lead to useless predictions. Perhaps even more importantly, the usable observational record is limited to 0–2 Ma and contains only five reversals, necessitating that we determine if the data are even sufficient to reliably train and validate an ML algorithm. To answer these questions we use several ML classifiers (linear/non-linear support vector machines and long short-term memory networks), invoke a hierarchy of numerical models (from simplified models to 3-D geodynamo simulations), and two palaeomagnetic reconstructions (PADM2M and Sint-2000). The performance of the ML classifiers varies across the models and the observational record and we provide evidence that this is not an artefact of the numerics, but rather reflects how ‘predictable’ a model or observational record is. Studying models of Earth’s magnetic field via ML classifiers thus can help with identifying shortcomings or advantages of the various models. For Earth’s magnetic field, we conclude that the ability of ML to identify precursors of reversals is limited, largely due to the small amount and low frequency resolution of data, which makes training and subsequent validation nearly impossible. Put simply: the ML techniques we tried are not currently capable of reliably identifying an axial dipole moment (ADM) precursor for geomagnetic reversals. This does not necessarily imply that such a precursor does not exist, and improvements in temporal resolution and length of ADM records may well offer better prospects in the future.
Kyle Gwirtz↗
Study of the Residual Background Events in Ground Data from the ASTRO-HSXS Microcalorimeter
The measured instrumental background of the XRS calorimeter spectrometer of Suzaku had several sources, including primary cosmic rays and secondary particles interacting with the pixels and with the silicon structure of the array. Prior to the launch of Suzaku, several data sets were taken without x-ray illumination to study the characteristics and timing of background signals produced in the array and anti-coincidence detector. Even though the source of the background in the laboratory was different from that in low-earth orbit (muons and environmental gamma-rays on the ground versus Galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) protons and alpha particles in space), the study of correlations and properties of populations of rare events was useful for establishing the preliminary screening parameters needed for selection of good science data. Sea-level muons are singly charged minimum-ionizing particles, like the GCR protons, and thus were good probes of the effectiveness of screening via the signals from the anti-coincidence detector. Here we present the first analysis of the on-ground background of the SXS calorimeter of Astro-H. On XRS, the background prior to screening was completely dominated by coincident events on many pixels resulting from the temperature pulse arising from each large energy deposition (greater than 200 keV) into the silicon frame around the array. The improved heat-sinking of the SXS array compared with XRS eliminated these thermal disturbances, greatly reducing the measured count rate in the absence of illumination. The removal of these events has made it easier to study the nature of the residual background and to look for additional event populations. We compare the SXS residual background to that measured in equivalent ground data for XRS and discuss these preliminary results.
ASTRO-H↗
Soft Decision Analyzer
The Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) is an instrument that combines hardware, firmware, and software to perform realtime closed-loop end-to-end statistical analysis of single- or dual- channel serial digital RF communications systems operating in very low signal-to-noise conditions. As an innovation, the unique SDA capabilities allow it to perform analysis of situations where the receiving communication system slips bits due to low signal-to-noise conditions or experiences constellation rotations resulting in channel polarity in versions or channel assignment swaps. SDA s closed-loop detection allows it to instrument a live system and correlate observations with frame, codeword, and packet losses, as well as Quality of Service (QoS) and Quality of Experience (QoE) events. The SDA s abilities are not confined to performing analysis in low signal-to-noise conditions. Its analysis provides in-depth insight of a communication system s receiver performance in a variety of operating conditions. The SDA incorporates two techniques for identifying slips. The first is an examination of content of the received data stream s relation to the transmitted data content and the second is a direct examination of the receiver s recovered clock signals relative to a reference. Both techniques provide benefits in different ways and allow the communication engineer evaluating test results increased confidence and understanding of receiver performance. Direct examination of data contents is performed by two different data techniques, power correlation or a modified Massey correlation, and can be applied to soft decision data widths 1 to 12 bits wide over a correlation depth ranging from 16 to 512 samples. The SDA detects receiver bit slips within a 4 bits window and can handle systems with up to four quadrants (QPSK, SQPSK, and BPSK systems). The SDA continuously monitors correlation results to characterize slips and quadrant change and is capable of performing analysis even when the receiver under test is subjected to conditions where its performance degrades to high error rates (30 percent or beyond). The design incorporates a number of features, such as watchdog triggers that permit the SDA system to recover from large receiver upsets automatically and continue accumulating performance analysis unaided by operator intervention. This accommodates tests that can last in the order of days in order to gain statistical confidence in results and is also useful for capturing snapshots of rare events.
Steele, Glen↗