Engineering PapersSearch

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Random geological model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

Generation of random geological models using multi-randomization for machine learning

Generating high-fidelity geological models is essential for advancing machine learning (ML) methods in automated seismic interpretation. For instance, seismic images paired with corresponding fault labels are foundational for ML-based fault detection from seismic migration sections. While several open-access datasets of random geological models exist, open-source tools specifically designed to produce large volumes of such models for ML applications remain scarce. To address this gap, we present RGM (Random Geological Model), an open-source software package for efficiently generating 2D and 3D synthetic geological models tailored for ML workflows. RGM supports the creation of diverse model components, including medium property distributions (P-/S-wave velocities and density), seismic reflectivity images (i.e., synthetic migration sections), relative geological time, and discrete fault attributes such as probability, dip, strike, rake, and displacement. It also accommodates the creation of complex geological features such as salt bodies and unconformities. The model generation algorithm employs a multi-randomization strategy, yielding an effectively infinite-dimensional model space that encompasses a wide range of geological scenarios and associated seismic features. Furthermore, RGM incorporates a method to generate synthetic elastic migration images using analytical elastic reflection coefficients combined with frequency-dependent scaling. This functionality enables the creation of training datasets for ML models that leverage elastic seismic images. RGM is implemented in modern object-oriented Fortran, allowing users to flexibly control statistical parameters governing model variability. We demonstrate the capability, performance, and geological realism of the package through comprehensive 2D and 3D examples.

58 GEOSCIENCES

RGM: Random Geological Model Generation Package

This Fortran code is to accompany a manuscript to be submitted to Computers & Geosciences, a high-impact, peer-reviewed journal in computer methods for geosciences research. This Fortran code focuses on generation of synthetic geological models using a multi-randomization strategy. Generating high-fidelity synthetic geological models, including realistic seismic reflector migration images, faults, salt bodies, and relative geological time images, is the key for many supervised machine learning methods that aim to delineate faults and other geological properties of interest from seismic migration images. Our package contains two major functionalities: generating 2D synthetic random geological models and generating 3D synthetic random geological models. In each step of the generation process, we set random values for key properties of a geological model to improve the fidelity of the resulting geological model. The package also includes example codes on how to use the random geological model generation subroutines. We name this package RGM – Random Geological Model generation package.

Gao, Kai

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Lunar crater arcs

An analysis has been made of the tendency of large lunar craters to lie along circles. A catalog of the craters at least 50 km in diameter was prepared first, noting position, diameter, rim sharpness and completion, nature of underlying surface, and geological age. The subset of those craters 50-400 km in diameter was then used as input to computer programs which identified each 'family' of four or more craters of selected geological age lying on a circular arc. For comparison, families were also identified for randomized crater models in which the crater spatial density was matched to that on the moon, either overall or separately for mare and highland areas. The observed frequency of lunar arcuate families was statistically highly significantly greater than for the randomized models, for craters classified as either late-pre-Imbrian (Nectarian), middle pre-Imbrian, or early pre-Imbrian, as well as for a number of larger age-classes. The lunar families tend to center in specific areas of the moon; these lie in highlands rather than maria and are different for families of Nectarian craters than for pre-Nectarian. The origin of the arcuate crater groupings is not understood.

Jaffe, L. D.

Tectonic resurfacing of Venus

Impact crater distributions and morphologies have traditionally played an important role in unraveling the geologic histories of terrestrial objects, and Venus has proved no exception. The key observations are: mean crater retention age about 500 Ma; apparently random spatial distribution; modest proportion (17 percent) of modified craters; and preferential association of modified craters with areas of low crater density. The simplest interpretation of these data alone is that Venus experienced global resurfacing (assumed to be largely volcanic) prior to 500 Ma, after which time resurfacing rates decreased dramatically. This scenario does not totally exclude present geological activity: some resurfacing and crater obliteration is occurring on part of the planet, but at rates much smaller than on Earth. An alternative endmember model holds that resurfacing is also spatially randomly distributed. Resurfacing of about 1 sq km/yr eliminates craters such that a typical portion of the surface has an age of 500 Ma, but actual ages range from zero to about 1000 Ma. Monte Carlo simulation indicates that the typical resurfacing 'patch' cannot exceed about 500 km in diameter without producing a crater distribution more heterogeneous than observed. Volcanic or tectonic processes within these patches must be locally intense to be able to obliterate craters completely and leave few modified. In this abstract, we describe how global geologic mapping may be used to test resurfacing hypotheses. We present preliminary evidence that the dominant mode of resurfacing on Venus is tectonism, not volcanism, and that this process must be ongoing today. Lastly, we outline a conceptual model in which to understand the relationship between global tectonics and crater distribution and preservation.

Malin, Michael C.

Exploring Flooded Fraction Prediction through Machine Learning Models Focusing on Medical Infrastructure in the Southeast U.S. Coastal Areas

Rising sea levels due to climate change increasingly threaten medical infrastructure through flooding. This study develops machine learning models to predict flood exposure for 11,508 medical facilities in the southeastern coastal regions of the United States by integrating datasets including meteorological, hydrological, topographic, and geological data, the Natural Risk Index, and historical flood records from NASA, HIFLD, and FEMA. Six regression models, namely Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbors, XGBoost, and Artificial Neural Networks, are trained using 16 explanatory variables identified through literature review and correlation analysis. Data preprocessing employs the SMOGN for class imbalance and Winsorization for outliers. Model performance is evaluated using MAE, MSE, and RMSE, with Random Forest and XGBoost models achieving the highest performance (MSE of 2.58e-5 and 3.69e-5, respectively). This multifactorial approach allows the models to capture complex flood-influencing relationships, enhancing adaptability and performance across geographic regions. Future work focuses on expanding across the U.S. and developing a near real-time flood monitoring system.

Jihoon Chung

Global stratigraphy of Venus: Analysis of a random sample of thirty-six test areas

The age relations between 36 impact craters with dark paraboloids and other geologic units and structures at these localities have been studied through photogeologic analysis of Magellan SAR images of the surface of Venus. Geologic settings in all 36 sites, about 1000 x 1000 km each, could be characterized using only 10 different terrain units and six types of structures. Mapping of such units and structures in 36 randomly distributed large regions shows evidence for a distinctive regional and global stratigraphic and geologic sequence. On the basis of this sequence we have developed a model that illustrates several major themes in the history of Venus. Most of the history of Venus (that of its first 80% or so) is not preserved in the surface geomorphological record. The major deformation associated with tessera formation in the period sometime between 0.5-1.0 b.y. ago (Ivanov and Basilevsky, 1993) is the earliest event detected. Our stratigraphic analyses suggest that following tessera formation, extensive volcanic flooding resurfaced at least 85% of the planet in the form of the presently-ridged and fractured plains. Several lines of evidence favor a high flux in the post-tessera period but we have no independent evidence for the absolute duration of ridged plains emplacement. During this time, the net state of stress in the lithosphere apparently changed from extensional to compressional, first in the form of extensive ridge belt development, followed by the formation of extensive wrinkle ridges on the flow units. Subsequently, there occurred local emplacement of smooth and lobate plains units which are presently essentially undeformed. The major events in the latest 10% of the presently preserved history of Venus are continued rifting and some associated volcanism, and the redistribution of eolian material largely derived from impact crater deposits. Detailed geologic mapping and stratigraphic synthesis are necessary to test this sequence and to address many of the outstanding problems raised by this analysis.

Basilevsky, Alexander T.

Southern Wyoming Ecological Forecasting: Monitoring Cheatgrass in Southern Wyoming and Northern Colorado to Inform Management Efforts Post-Mullen Fire

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is a prominent invasive species in the Intermountain West that has the potential to out-compete native plant species, reduce biodiversity, and reduce the quality of habitat for ungulates. Furthermore, because cheatgrass readily establishes in disturbed landscapes, it can potentially increase fuel loads and exacerbate wildfire risk. In 2020, the Mullen Fire burned 176,878 acres in Carbon and Albany Counties, Wyoming and Jackson County, Colorado. Large fires such as this one raise concern for partners at the United States Forest Service and the United States Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center, who are tasked with rapidly detecting and controlling invasive species in the post-fire environment. We developed a Random Forest model trained by in-situ field data and spectral indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index, and Enhanced Vegetation Index derived from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission to detect and map cheatgrass presence during the 2021 growing season. The team successfully created a spectral cheatgrass detection map in the study area (RMSE = 13.71, R2 = 0.34). We also produced a NDVI time-series derived from Sentinel-2 MSI to analyze vegetation recovery patterns.

Dahlia Shahin

Quantifying mean, variability, and uncertainty in indoor radon exposure in Pennsylvania using random forest and quantile regression forest models

Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas that poses a serious health risk as the primary cause of lung cancer in non-smokers. Despite the well-known adverse association with health outcomes, current radon exposure assessments are limited to county-level or average-level estimates, which fail to capture regional variability. This study uses Machine Learning models, including Random Forest (RF) and Quantile Regression Forest (QRF), to estimate the indoor radon concentrations at the ZCTA (Zip code tabulation area)-level and characterize uncertainties in model estimates. Incorporating geological, meteorological, and building-specific data, the models aim to improve radon risk assessment by capturing mean exposure, variability, and extreme concentration levels. Processed radon test data (n = 718,111) were analyzed using average, variability, and quantile prediction methods. Models that estimate the average radon exposure at the ZCTA-level can yield promising model-fit results, but they do not capture the underlying variability of indoor radon exposure within a ZCTA. We utilize volatility analyses to identify characteristics indicative of high variability of indoor radon exposure. We also show that a QRF model can be used to estimate upper quantiles of residential radon exposure, thereby uncovering localized areas of elevated exposure that were not apparent in mean estimates. The results highlighted the need for a deep characterization of exposure risk and show that regions with moderate average exposure levels could still harbor extreme outliers with implications for evaluating health risks. Utilizing multiple radon exposure models allows for a deeper characterization of radon risk within a geographic area and can better identify high-risk areas. The results from this study provide a foundation for developing mitigation strategies and examining associations between radon exposure and health outcomes at fine scales. Future research should extend the geographic scope and incorporate additional environmental risk factors to establish a comprehensive framework for risk assessment.

Lee, Heechan [ORNL]

The NASA environmental models of Mars

NASA environmental models are discussed with particular attention given to the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) and the Mars Terrain simulator. The Mars-GRAM model takes into account seasonal, diurnal, and surface topography and dust storm effects upon the atmosphere. It is also capable of simulating appropriate random density perturbations along any trajectory path through the atmosphere. The Mars Terrain Simulator is a software program that builds pseudo-Martian terrains by layering the effects of geological processes upon one another. Output pictures of the constructed surfaces can be viewed from any vantage point under any illumination conditions. Attention is also given to the document 'Environment of Mars, 1988' in which scientific models of the Martian atmosphere and Martian surface are presented.

Kaplan, D. I.

Global Stratigraphy of Venus: Analysis of a Random Sample of Thirty-Six Test Areas

The age relations between 36 impact craters with dark paraboloids and other geologic units and structures at these localities have been studied through photogeologic analysis of Magellan SAR images of the surface of Venus. Geologic settings in all 36 sites, about 1000 x 1000 km each, could be characterized using only 10 different terrain units and six types of structures. These units and structures form a major stratigraphic and geologic sequence (from oldest to youngest): (1) tessera terrain; (2) densely fractured terrains associated with coronae and in the form of remnants among plains; (3) fractured and ridged plains and ridge belts; (4) plains with wrinkle ridges; (5) ridges associated with coronae annulae and ridges of arachnoid annulae which are contemporary with wrinkle ridges of the ridged plains; (6) smooth and lobate plains; (7) fractures of coronae annulae, and fractures not related to coronae annulae, which disrupt ridged and smooth plains; (8) rift-associated fractures; and (9) craters with associated dark paraboloids, which represent the youngest 1O% of the Venus impact crater population (Campbell et al.), and are on top of all volcanic and tectonic units except the youngest episodes of rift-associated fracturing and volcanism; surficial streaks and patches are approximately contemporary with dark-paraboloid craters. Mapping of such units and structures in 36 randomly distributed large regions (each approximately 10(exp 6) sq km) shows evidence for a distinctive regional and global stratigraphic and geologic sequence. On the basis of this sequence we have developed a model that illustrates several major themes in the history of Venus. Most of the history of Venus (that of its first 80% or so) is not preserved in the surface geomorphological record. The major deformation associated with tessera formation in the period sometime between 0.5-1.0 b.y. ago (Ivanov and Basilevsky) is the earliest event detected. In the terminal stages of tessera fon-nation, extensive parallel linear graben swarms representing a change in the style of deformation from shortening to extension were formed on the tessera and on some volcanic plains that were emplaced just after, and perhaps also during the latter stages of the major compressional phase of tessera emplacement. Our stratigraphic analyses suggest that following tessera formation, extensive volcanic flooding resurfaced at least 85% of the planet in the form of the presently-ridged and fractured plains. Several lines of evidence favor a high flux in the post-tessera period but we have no independent evidence for the absolute duration of ridged plains emplacement. During this time, the net state of stress in the lithosphere apparently changed from extensional to compressional, first in the form of extensive ridge belt development, followed by the formation of extensive wrinkle ridges on the flow units. Subsequently, there occurred local emplacement of smooth and lobate plains units which are presently essentially undefortned. The major events in the latest 10% of the presently preserved history of Venus (less than 50 m.y. ago) are continued rifting and some associated volcanism, and the redistribution of eolian material largely derived from impact crater deposits.

Basilevsky, Alexander T.

Impact cratering and regolith dynamics

The most recent models concerning mechanical aspects of lunar regolith dynamics related to impact cratering use probabilistic approaches to account for the randomness of the meteorite environment in both space and time. Accordingly the absolute regolith thickness is strictly a function of total bombardment intensity and absolute regolith growth rate in nonlinear through geologic time. Regoliths of increasing median thickness will have larger and larger proportions of more and more deep seated materials. An especially active zone of reworking on the lunar surface of about 1 mm depth has been established. With increasing depth, the probability of excavation and regolith turnover decreases very rapidly. Thus small scale stratigraphy - observable in lunar core materials - is perfectly compatible with regolith gardening, though it is also demonstrated that any such stratigraphy does not necessarily present a complete record of the regolith's depositional history. At present, the lifetimes of exposed lunar rocks against comminution by impact processes can be modeled; it appears that catastrophic rupture dominates over single particle abrasion.

Hoerz, F.

Limits to randomness in paleobiologic models: the case of Phanerozoic species diversity

The question of how random, or unconstrained, paleobiologic models should be is examined with a case study: Signor's (1982, 1985) inverse calculation of levels of marine species diversity through the Phanerozoic. His calculation involved an ingenious model that estimated species numbers and species abundances in the world oceans of the past by correcting known numbers of fossil species for variations in sedimentary rocks available for sampling and in effort paleontologists might devote to sampling. The model proves robust to changes in possible shapes of species-abundance distributions, but it is sensitive to alterations in the assumption that paleontologists collect fossils at random. If it is assumed that ease of collecting varies with age of sediment (with the Cenozoic offering easy sampling) or that paleontologists tend to seek out rarer fossils, results of the inverse calculation change. In particular, the magnitude of the calculated Cenozoic diversity increase always declines from the factor of about seven as originally reported to something considerably smaller. This leaves open the problem of the magnitude of Cenozoic increase in marine species diversity, awaiting better empirical data and, perhaps, more exacting models, random or otherwise.

Non-NASA Center

Seismicity-constrained fault detection and characterization with a multitask machine learning model

Geological fault detection and characterization are crucial for understanding subsurface dynamics across scales. While methods for fault delineation based on either seismicity location analysis or seismic image reflector discontinuity are well-established, a systematic approach that integrates both data types remains absent. We develop a novel machine learning model that unifies seismic reflector images and seismicity location information to automatically identify geological faults and characterize their geometrical properties. The model encodes a seismic image and a seismicity location image separately, and fuses the encoded features with a spatial-channel attention fusion module to improve the learning of important features in both inputs. We design an automated strategy to generate high-quality synthetic training data and labels. To improve the realism of the seismicity location image, we include random seismicity noise and missing seismicity location associated with some of the faults. We validate the model’s efficacy and accuracy using synthetic data examples and two field data examples. Moreover, we show that fine-tuning the trained model with a small, domain-specific dataset enhances its fidelity for field data applications. The results demonstrate that integrating seismicity location and seismic images into a unified framework allows the end-to-end neural network to achieve higher fidelity and accuracy in delineating subsurface faults and their geometrical properties compared with image-only fault detection methods. Our approach offers an adaptive data-driven tool for geological fault characterization and seismic hazard mitigation, bridging the gap between seismicity location and image-based fault detection methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Utilizing Earth Observations to Model Probable Coastal Wetland Extent, Sea-Level Rise Inundation Risk, and Assess Impacts on Historic Hawaiian Lands

Climate induced sea-level rise poses a risk to coastal areas on the Island of Hawai’i, and many of the island’s historic cultural lands are in danger of becoming overtaken by wetlands or inundation. In partnership with the County of Hawai’i, State of Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources, and Arizona State University, NASA DEVELOP mapped wetland extent and short-term sea-level rise inundation risk. We utilized Earth observations over a 10-year span (2013 – 2022) that included the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies and MEaSUREs Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature datasets, United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaii Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and in situ tidal gauge data. Flood risk index values were acquired for 5 known Hawai’i flood events between 2019 – 2021 from the Global Flood Mapper tool on Google Earth Engine. We used a random forest model to predict short-term sea-level rise inundation risk along the entire coast of Hawai’i. Current wetland extents and probabilistic locations of new wetlands were modeled with the most recently available data from PlanetScope Surface Reflectance optical imagery (2022), USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) 10m DEM (2020), temperature and precipitation data from the Hawai’i Climate Atlas, and soils data from the Hawai’i Soil Atlas (2014) using the Wetland Intrinsic Potential tool. Results indicated locations that had the highest probability of wetland creation. The end products aimed to help the partners prioritize efforts to meeting regulation requirements for wetlands protection, evaluate the inundation risk to historical features, and support decision-making for their Shoreline Setback and Climate Adaption plans.

Lisa Tanh

Toward Drilling the Perfect Geothermal Well: An International Research Coordination Network for Geothermal Drilling Optimization Supported by Deep Machine Learning and Cloud Based Data Aggregation

The EDGE project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office under award DE-EE0008793, established a data-driven framework for improving the efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and reliability of geothermal well drilling. The project focused on developing scalable data infrastructure, advanced machine learning and probabilistic models, and integrated analytics tools to support continuous drilling optimization. A central objective was to reduce geothermal drilling costs by up to seventy percent while minimizing the risk of well failure through predictive diagnostics and adaptive planning. Over the project period, a comprehensive data repository was designed and deployed, incorporating records from over one hundred geothermal wells across varied geological settings. This repository supported both structured and unstructured data and adhered to FAIR data principles, enabling provenance tracking, quality control, and standardized metadata. The project introduced automated ingestion pipelines and a cloud-hosted platform that facilitated access to raw, processed, and derived datasets. This infrastructure served as the foundation for model development and analysis. Machine learning workflows were developed to predict key drilling metrics including rate of penetration, non-productive time, and total drilling costs. Self-organizing maps and dimensionality reduction methods were used to uncover operational patterns and outliers, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests and deep neural networks were applied to forecast performance outcomes. The models were validated on heterogeneous datasets from both U.S. and Icelandic fields, demonstrating variable but significant predictive accuracy. The results indicated that finer temporal resolution, inclusion of lithological data, and consistency in operational annotations could substantially improve model performance. The project also implemented process mining techniques to reconstruct state-transition models from drilling event logs. These models enabled the identification of deviations from optimal workflows and provided insights into recurring failure modes. Analysis of non-productive time highlighted the impact of equipment failures, geological challenges, and human factors, offering opportunities for targeted mitigation strategies. The EDGE Dashboard was developed as a web-based expert system integrating data visualization, model outputs, and user-driven queries. It provided an accessible interface for operators to explore historical data, evaluate predicted outcomes, and compare drilling scenarios. Initial feedback from project partners suggested that the dashboard could serve as a foundation for more advanced advisory and optimization tools. Overall, the EDGE project demonstrated the feasibility and value of applying modern data science techniques to geothermal drilling. It delivered a set of interoperable tools and models that can support more efficient, lower-risk well development. The findings point toward a viable path for transitioning from advisory analytics to semi-autonomous drilling systems, contingent on continued collaboration, expanded datasets, and field validation. The project results have immediate relevance for drilling operations, data management practices, and future geothermal R&D efforts aimed at achieving reliable, cost-competitive geothermal energy at scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Venus: Vertical accretion of crust and depleted mantle and implications for geological history and processes

Models for the vertical accretion of a basaltic crust and depleted mantle layer on Venus over geologic time predict the eventual development of a net negatively buoyant depleted mantle layer, its foundering and its remixing with the underlying mantle. The consequences of the development of this layer, its loss, and the aftermath are investigated and compared to the geologic record of Venus revealed by Magellan. The young average age of the surface of Venus (several hundred million years), the formation of the heavily deformed tessera regions, the subsequent emplacement of widespread volcanic plains, the presently low rate of volcanic activity, and impact crater population that cannot be distinguished from a completely spatially random distribution, and the small number of impact craters embayed by volcanism, are all consistent with the development of a depleted mantle layer, its relatively rapid loss followed by large-scale volcanic flooding, and its subsequent reestablishment. We outline a 'catastrophic' tectonic resurfacing model in which the foundering of the depleted mantle layer several hundred million years ago caused globally extensive tectonic deformation and obliteration of the cratering record, accompanied by upwelling of warm fertile mantle and its pressure-release melting to produce extensive surface volcanism in the following period. Venus presently appears to be characterized by a relatively thick depleted mantle layer and lithosphere reestablished over the last several hundred million years following the previous instability event inferred to have produced the tessera terrain.

Head, James W.

Evaluation of Drilling Performance at The Geysers with Machine Learning Methods Using Geologic Data

A recent well, GDC-36, was drilled in The Geysers Geothermal Field served in a Department of Energy-industry to demonstrate improved drilling performance with polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bits. Both PDC and roller cone drill bits were used to drill this well. Key challenges encountered during drilling included lost circulation in the mud-drilled section, and bit damage interfacial severity in the deeper, air-drilled section. The objective of this study is to evaluate the drilling performance in relation to the local geological characteristics using machine learning methods. By applying K-clustering to the sonic log data, we were able to identify areas correlated with measured lost circulation. Also, the boundaries defined by clustering of the mineralogical and lithological data from the mud logs correlate well with interfacial severity during drilling. A random forest model was employed to build correlation between drilling data and rock strength. The confined compressive strength (CCS) of the rock in the training of the machine learning model was inferred from the dipole sonic log. The R-squared of the testing data is 0.78, and the RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) is 0.06. The trained model was used to forecast rock strength for the section where sonic log data are not available. CCS could also be inferred from mud logs provided the relationship between mineralogy and rock strength is established through core testing data.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY