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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

The relatively young and rural population may limit the spread and severity of COVID-19 in Africa: a modelling study

A novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to all regions of the world. There is great uncertainty regarding how countries’ characteristics will affect the spread of the epidemic; to date, there are few studies that attempt to predict the spread of the epidemic in African countries. In this paper, we investigate the role of demographic patterns, urbanisation and comorbidities on the possible trajectories of COVID-19 in Ghana, Kenya and Senegal. We use an augmented deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to predict the true spread of the disease, under the containment measures taken so far. We disaggregate the infected compartment into asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic and severely symptomatic to match observed clinical development of COVID-19. We also account for age structures, urbanisation and comorbidities (HIV, tuberculosis, anaemia). In our baseline model, we project that the peak of active cases will occur in July, subject to the effectiveness of policy measures. When accounting for the urbanisation, and factoring in comorbidities, the peak may occur between 2 June and 17 June (Ghana), 22 July and 29 August (Kenya) and, finally, 28 May and 15 June (Senegal). Successful containment policies could lead to lower rates of severe infections. While most cases will be mild, we project in the absence of policies further containing the spread, that between 0.78% and 1.03%, 0.61% and 1.22%, and 0.60% and 0.84% of individuals in Ghana, Kenya and Senegal, respectively, may develop severe symptoms at the time of the peak of the epidemic. Compared with Europe, Africa’s younger and rural population may modify the severity of the epidemic. The large youth population may lead to more infections but most of these infections will be asymptomatic or mild, and will probably go undetected. The higher prevalence of underlying conditions must be considered.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Travel Patterns and Characteristics of Population in Rural Areas of New York State

Travel activities in rural communities tend to be reliant on personal vehicles due to limited public transportation options and long distances to essential services, with demographic factors such as age and income level influencing travel patterns. Addressing transportation challenges in rural New York State (NYS) necessitates an understanding of demographic trends and travel behaviors. This study examines rural households and populations by studying their demographics, mobility patterns, perspectives on transportation services, and how COVID-19 has influenced their transportation-related behaviors.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa faces unique barriers to electricity development due to the large proportion of the population that is un-electrified and the prevalence of rural populations. Typically, power system expansion planning models assume all potential consumers can be immediately electrified. This assumption is unrealistic in sub-Saharan Africa, where electrification will likely be a gradual process over a number of years. Furthermore, since a large proportion of the population in sub-Saharan Africa is located in rural regions, the prioritization of these regions may impact how the grid develops. In this research, we develop a multi-period optimization model for power generation and transmission system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast to existing models, which assume full electrification, we consider a variety of electrification policies and analyze the impact of varying the electrification rate and policy on the cost and resources selected for power system expansion. We test our model on a case study of Rwanda. We find that varying the year in which full electrification is reached has a larger impact on cost and generation capacity than varying the electrification policy does, although, when urban and rural regions are considered equitably, more rooftop solar is built. Varying the electrification policies has a larger impact on transmission expansion than on generation expansion and this impact is amplified when starting from zero initial system capacity rather than the original Rwanda system. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis shows that tightening the bounds on CO 2eq emissions has a large impact on the generation portfolio and cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drivers and energy justice implications of renewable energy project siting in the United States

The rapid expansion of solar and wind energy projects is raising questions of energy justice. Some scholars argue that solar and wind project development could burden under-resourced communities with negative impacts such as environmental harm and reduced access to resources. Conversely, other scholars argue that project development could be a boon to under-resourced communities, providing local economic and cultural benefits. Here, we analyze the drivers of solar and wind project siting patterns in the United States and explore their potential energy justice implications. We find that siting patterns are driven primarily by technoeconomic factors, especially resource quality and access to open undeveloped spaces. These technoeconomic factors channel projects into sparsely populated rural areas and, to a lesser extent, areas with lower income levels. Here, we avoid simplifying assumptions about the broad justice implications of these siting patterns and explore our results from multiple perspectives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Human papillomavirus–associated anal squamous cell carcinoma: sociodemographic, geographic, and county-level economic trends in incidence rates—United States, 2001-2019

Abstract Background Incidence of anal squamous cell carcinoma is increasing, but vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) and removal of precancerous anal lesions could prevent new cases. The overall HPV-associated cancer incidence is reported to be higher in rural populations and in counties with lower economic status. We assessed these differences specifically for HPV-associated anal squamous cell carcinoma and described the geographic, county-level economic, and sociodemographic variations in incidence rates and trends. Methods We analyzed data from the US Cancer Statistics to assess age-standardized incidence rates of HPV-associated squamous cell carcinomas among adults aged 18 years and older from 2001 to 2019. We calculated rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals to examine differences in incidence rates. We also quantified changes in incidence rates over time using joinpoint regression. Results From 2001 to 2019, 72 421 new cases of HPV-associated anal squamous cell carcinoma were diagnosed among women (2.8 per 100 000) and 37 147 among men (1.7 per 100 000). Age-standardized incidence rates were higher in the South compared with other census regions and in counties ranked in the bottom 25% and 25%-75% economically than in the top 25%. The overall incidence rate increased in women but remained stable in men during 2009-2019. Incidence rates increased in adults aged 50 years and older but decreased among those aged 40-44 years from 2001 to 2019 in women and from 2007 to 2019 in men. Conclusions There were inequities in HPV-associated anal squamous cell carcinoma incidence by geographic and county-level economic characteristics. Failure to improve vaccine and treatment equity may widen existing disparities.

Oncology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geographic disparities of cardiovascular and cancer mortality in the USA: 1981–2019

Background: Cardiovascular and cancer mortality are the two leading causes of death in the developed world including the USA. However, mortality trends for these diseases are highly dynamic, and the geographic landscape is in transition. We analyze patterns of mortality improvement at county level during recent decades focusing on mortality decline and geographic diversity. Methods: We grouped age-adjusted mortality rates of cardiovascular and cancer diseases from CDC WONDER for 2959 US counties into 3-year time periods to improve reliability. We calculated percent mortality decrease between 1981–83 and 2016–19 for both causes to quantify mortality improvements for counties. Results: Using standard deviation as an index of disparities, place-based cancer mortalities were 68% larger than cardiovascular disparities. Significantly, 566 US counties had same or higher rates of cancer mortality in 2019 as in 1981. The geographic distribution of mortality improvement in either cause tends to favor largely populated areas along coasts. Less-populated, rural places in the interior and southeastern regions were experiencing less improvement. Conclusions: At the county level, large place-based disparities exist for both causes of death with the magnitude of disparities being substantially larger for the reduction in cancer deaths. Put differently, place matters, more for cancer than cardiovascular mortality.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adapting Agrivoltaics for Solar Mini-Grids in Haiti

With less than 2% of the rural population with access to electricity and almost half the population facing acute hunger, Haiti faces interconnected challenges of energy poverty and food insecurity. One solution to help address energy poverty in Haiti has been the development of distributed solar, particularly solar mini-grids. However, often the land best suited for deploying solar generation is also best suited for agriculture by smallholder farmers, thereby creating a potentially complicated tension between energy access and food security. To address this tension, solar developers, agricultural specialists, and researchers are jointly examining a novel solution called "agrivoltaics." Agrivoltaics is a shared land-use solution that is rapidly expanding in established solar markets like the United States, Europe, and Asia that pairs solar with agriculture, producing electricity and providing space for crops and animal grazing under and between panels. As part of the Energy Access Partnership for Haiti with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) performed an initial feasibility analysis and stakeholder engagement project to evaluate the potential for agrivoltaics in mini-grid contexts in Haiti. The analysis considered typical 100-kW and larger 1-MW mini-grids in towns across Haiti and developed two example agrivoltaic archetypes based on key local inputs, including solar irradiance, production data from the agricultural census, market prices, stakeholder interviews, and existing agrivoltaic research. See NREL/TP-7A40-89399 for the Haitian Creole translation of this document.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Klickitat Valley Health Central Utility Plant Modernization

This project replaced legacy heating and cooling equipment at Klickitat Valley Health (KVH), a rural hospital in Goldendale, Washington. Work included constructing a new chiller building, installing modern hydronic piping systems, replacing the main Emergency Department air handler (Air Handlining Unit (AHU-1)), upgrading electrical systems, and converting the Emergency Department wing from electric reheat to hydronic heating and cooling. Commissioning, testing, adjusting, and balancing were completed under this grant. These upgrades improve energy efficiency, operational resilience, and system reliability while preparing the campus for future electrification and renewable energy integration. They also support growth in healthcare services for a rural population. The project directly reduces energy costs and provides a foundation for future decarbonization measures, including a FEMA-funded microgrid and a large-scale ground source heat pump (GSHP) project. These follow-on initiatives would not have been possible without the hydronic backbone built through this project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

TASTI-GRID: An Overview of West Virginia’s Grid Resilience Challenges

West Virginia’s legacy as a top power producer with a legacy of mining and natural gas is well-known across the country. A state with historic underinvestment, vulnerability to natural hazards, and a large rural population – much of West Virginia’s critical energy infrastructure is beyond its recommended lifecycle at 75+ years old. West Virginian’s are feeling the effects of neighboring Virginia’s data center growth, as its grid interconnectedness with neighboring states have impacted energy affordability as power supply has not kept up with demand. The state aims to attract data centers to improve economic development, however, the age of infrastructure, utility reliability, weather-induced major outages, and cost of proposed improvements compound West Virginia’s resilience challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Alaska's Rural Building Stock: a Validation Study Using ResStock and Field Data

The availability of accurate national data on demographics, building stock, and energy use is vital for modeling residential buildings and evaluating decarbonization strategies. However, rural and Indigenous populations, including those in rural Alaska, are typically underrepresented in these datasets. These communities face unique challenges due to their remote locations, severe weather conditions, and limited access to resources, resulting in high energy burden. This report examines how rural Alaskan communities are underrepresented in the ResStock housing model and highlights the need for improved data to address their unique housing and energy challenges. Thus, this report examines the representation of rural Alaskan communities within the national housing stock model, ResStock. A validation study was conducted, considering ResStock, Field Data and Aerial and 3D-view data collection (A3DDC) datasets. The validation process started by using the down selecting approach on the ResStock building stock dataset. For the purpose of this study, only the rural Alaska Boroughs and Census areas located in ASHRAE IECC Climate Zone 8 were considered to ensure a more accurate and fair comparison with the field data, which was collected in rural areas located in climate zone 8, specifically within the Nome Census area. While ResStock may accurately represent several characteristics of the building stock for rural Alaska, some differences between modeled, field data, and aerial and 3D-view data collection datasets were identified. The following building characteristics have a high impact on modeled energy consumption and demonstrated large differences: Revisit heating setpoints and consider a substantially higher setpoint distribution, it could potentially address "missing loads" if this is the case. Develop and include Toyo heating in future modeling for ResStock and EnergyPlus. Remove natural gas as a water heater fuel type outside of North Slope County. Foundation type updated to have more crawlspaces rather than basements. Infiltration rates need reexamination for a larger distribution toward higher infiltration rates. Include more vinyl and less brick in exterior wall type and revise wall color for greater proportion of light rather than dark color. Roof material revised from majority shingles to majority metal. Update number of occupants to higher number of occupant count. Building orientation represents a higher proportion of south facing buildings rather than relatively equal. The findings suggest that updating ResStock's probability logic could better represent rural Alaskan buildings. ResStock can be utilized to identify the best upgrades or energy efficiency and energy efficiency improvements, helping community leaders in making more informed decisions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of sustainable waste management: An analysis of techno-economic and life cycle assessments of municipal solid waste sorting and decontamination

This study evaluates the economic and environmental feasibility of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) sorting and decontamination technologies across urban, suburban, and rural areas. Using Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), the research assesses cost-effectiveness and environmental impacts, with a focus on cost variability analyzed through Monte Carlo simulations. Findings indicate significant cost differences based on population density: rural areas incur high costs up to $$764/ton due to low waste volumes and limited infrastructure, whereas suburban and urban areas have more feasible costs ranging from $36.3 to $142.5/ton. Environmental impacts also vary, with greenhouse gas emissions at 171 kg CO 2 eq/ton for copy paper and 118.6 kg CO 2 eq/ton for plastics. PM2.5 levels are 9.1 g/ton for copy paper and 6.3 g/ton for plastics, with sorting lines being the main contributors. Monte Carlo simulations reveal a 50% probability of costs being below $$102.26/ton for copy paper and $115.8/ton for plastics in suburban settings. Further, the study underscores the importance of customized waste management strategies to improve economic viability and sustainability based on local conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Human fatalities resulting from wild pig attacks worldwide – 2000-2019

Although reported to be rare, human fatalities resulting from wild pig (Sus scrofa) attacks do occur. Toward a better understanding of patterns in fatal wild pig attacks, we synthesized worldwide reports of wild pig attacks on humans between 2000 and 2019. We documented 163 separate reports of fatal wild pig attacks that resulted in 172 human deaths. On average, 8.6 human deaths occurred annually due to wild pig attacks during those 2 decades. The majority of fatal attacks resulted in a single human death; however, there were 6 cases in which an individual fatal attack resulted in 2–4 human deaths. These fatal wild pig attacks occurred in 29 countries, mostly within the wild pig’s native global range. Fatal attacks primarily occurred under non-hunting circumstances and involved seemingly unprovoked wild pigs. Under hunting circumstances, fatal attacks primarily involved provoked or wounded wild pigs. Fatal attacks typically involved a solitary wild pig, with 12% involving multiple pigs. Solitary pigs involved in fatal attacks were typically large boars that in most attacks exhibited defensive behaviors, although we discovered 7 attacks during which the pig’s behaviors appeared to be predatory. Three fatal attacks were initially investigated as homicides. Overall, victims of fatal wild pig attacks were between 3 and 85 years old and were traveling on foot when the attack occurred. The majority of victims of fatal attacks were adult (20–59 years old), male, traveling on foot, and working in isolation. Among all fatal attacks, 50% identified the cause of death, which included exsanguination/hemorrhagic shock, severe injury, heart attack, craniocerebral injury, severe injury/disembowelment/intestinal prolapse, and toxemia/septicemia. Fatal wild pig attacks occurred primarily in rural areas, with fatal attacks 390% more likely to occur in rural areas with large populations and at least 45% forested and agricultural cover. The greater the rural human population size within a country is, the greater the number of fatal wild pig attacks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The gut mycobiota of rural and urban individuals is shaped by geography

Understanding the structure and drivers of gut microbiota remains a major ecological endeavour. Recent studies have shown that several factors including diet, lifestyle and geography may substantially shape the human gut microbiota. However, most of these studies have focused on the more abundant bacterial component and comparatively less is known regarding fungi in the human gut. This knowledge deficit is especially true for rural and urban African populations. Therefore, we assessed the structure and drivers of rural and urban gut mycobiota. Results Our participants (n=100) were balanced by geography and sex. The mycobiota of these geographically separated cohorts was characterized using amplicon analysis of the Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) gene. We further assessed biomarker species specific to rural and urban cohorts. In addition to phyla which have been shown to be ubiquitous constituents of gut microbiota, Pichia were key constituents of the mycobiota. We found that several factors including geographic location and lifestyle factors such as the smoking status were major drivers of gut mycobiota. Linear discriminant and the linear discriminant analysis effect size analysis revealed several distinct urban and rural biomarkers. Conclusions Together, our analysis reveals distinct community structure in urban and rural South African individuals. Geography and lifestyle related factors were shown to be key drivers of rural and urban gut microbiota.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A data-driven mobility–energy typology framework for New York State

Exploring multidimensional aspects of differences in technology adoption, travel, and vehicle ownership across settlement types can help inform energy-efficient and affordable mobility system goals. Concurrently, mapping key enablers, barriers, and risks for successfully meeting ambitious goals and targets (e.g. by geography, age, income, education, population density) offer important explanatory power as to context-specific challenges and opportunities. This paper explores how a highly geographically resolved understanding of social, economic, techno-infrastructural, environmental, and governance (SET EG) factors shape variations in technology adoption and associated mobility and energy outcomes in diverse communities of New York State, in terms of electric vehicle adoption rates, alternative commute mode choices, vehicles per household, and vehicle fuel economy. Results indicate the range of two to three times higher adoption rates for electric vehicles by more highly educated, wealthier, “Core Urban” populations relative to the other identified typologies, given the labels “Rural”, “Suburban”, and “Urban” populations. Additionally, commute mode choice is closely linked with population and employment density—more than 89% of Core Urbanites use transit or active modes, compared with just 26% and 18% of Suburban and Rural residents, respectively. Household vehicle ownership varies from approximately 1.9 vehicles per household in Rural areas to only 0.6 in Core Urban settings. Findings on differences among the four settlement types, which go beyond simply rural to urban contexts, suggest an important need to explore how best to manage and anticipate very different types of services that may be supportive in achieving energy-efficient and affordable mobility systems statewide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) Model: Overview and Validation of V1.0 [Slides]

This presentation documents the approaches and methods used in the Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options™ (TEMPO) model to evaluate passenger and freight demand for transportation and mobility services, project vehicle ownership and technology adoption decisions, and determine transport mode choices to derive scenarios of future energy use and emissions. TEMPO is an all-inclusive transportation demand model that covers the entire United States, with an implicit spatial resolution and an hourly temporal resolution that allows for generating time-resolved energy use profiles to assess multisectoral integration aspects. Key features of the TEMPO model include the ability to perform endogenous out-of-sample forecasting to extrapolate recent emerging trends and analyze impacts of disruptive technological breakthroughs and behavioral changes. TEMPO employs an innovative representation of passenger mobility demand stemming from household-level decisions that determine vehicle adoption, ownership, and use based on sociodemographics (e.g., income, household composition), technology attributes (e.g., travel cost, time), geography (e.g., urban, suburban, rural) and population-specific multiday mobility and travel requirements. This representation enables a more forward-looking perspective on the use of new mobility options and the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, as well as a more accurate representation of their energy usage profiles than previous modeling approaches. A comparison with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook showcases the ability of TEMPO to accurately replicate widely accepted projections by representing the key elements of the entire transportation sector at the appropriate level of resolution. TEMPO is intended to generate future scenarios of technology adoption, energy use, and emissions in the transportation sector to compare alternatives, inform decision makers, and assess integration with energy infrastructure and supply systems at an appropriate spatiotemporal resolution.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Divergent urbanization-induced impacts on global surface urban heat island trends since 1980s

Urbanization experiences different speeds and forms under diverse development stages across the globe. However, urbanization-induced impacts on long-term surface urban heat island intensity (I s ) trends across global cities and the regulators of such impacts remain understudied. Here we estimate interannual trends in daytime I s (i.e., urban-rural differences in surface temperatures) across 511 major cities for 1985 –2020 using annual averages calculated by using reconstructed land surface temperature data derived from more than >250,000 Landsat thermal images. Our study reveals that the global mean I s growth rate is 0.156 °C/decade. We further examine I s change associated with per 1% impervious land growth (denoted as ß) in each city throughout the research period and during different periods. The global mean ß is 0.018 ± 0.025 °C/% (mean ± 1 standard deviation) for the whole period, with greater values in humid than in arid climates; and the ß may change during different periods, e.g., it has more than tripled when urban impervious land exceeds 30%, indicating the spatiotemporally divergent impacts of urbanization on Is trends across global cities. The spatial variations in ß across global cities are well correlated with rural vegetation abundance and precipitation but not with urban population. Among these three factors, rural vegetation abundance possesses the greatest standardized regression coefficient of partial least-squares model, signifying the critical role of biome background in regulating ß. Furthermore, the finding implies that future urbanization over densely vegetated regions should be more carefully and strategically planned due to the greater urbanization-induced surface warming effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Determinants of rural-urban differences in health care provider visits among women of reproductive age in the United States

Background Rural health disparities and access gaps may contribute to higher maternal and infant morbidity and mortality. Understanding and addressing access barriers for specialty women’s health services is important in mitigating risks for adverse childbirth events. The objective of this study was to investigate rural-urban differences in health care access for women of reproductive age by examining differences in past-year provider visit rates by provider type, and quantifying the contributing factors to these findings. Methods and findings Using a nationally-representative sample of reproductive age women (n = 37,026) from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2010–2015) linked to the Area Health Resource File, rural-urban differences in past-year office visit rates with health care providers were examined. Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition analysis quantified the portion of disparities explained by individual- and county-level sociodemographic and provider supply characteristics. Overall, there were no rural-urban differences in past-year visits with women’s health providers collectively (65.0% vs 62.4%), however differences were observed by provider type. Rural women had lower past-year obstetrician-gynecologist (OB-GYN) visit rates than urban women (23.3% vs. 26.6%), and higher visit rates with family medicine physicians (24.3% vs. 20.9%) and nurse practitioners/physician assistants (NPs/PAs) (24.6% vs. 16.1%). Lower OB-GYN availability in rural versus urban counties (6.1 vs. 13.7 providers/100,000 population) explained most of the rural disadvantage in OB-GYN visit rates (83.8%), and much of the higher family physician (80.9%) and NP/PA (50.1%) visit rates. Other individual- and county-level characteristics had smaller effects on rural-urban differences. Conclusion Although there were no overall rural-urban differences in past-year visit rates, the lower OB-GYN availability in rural areas appears to affect the types of health care providers seen by women. Whether rural women are receiving adequate specialized women’s health care services, while seeing a different cadre of providers, warrants further investigation and has particular relevance for women experiencing high-risk pregnancies and deliveries.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗