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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway Technical Program Plan

Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of nuclear power plants (NPPs). As the current Light Water Reactor (LWR) NPPs age beyond 60 years, there are possibilities for increased frequency of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) degradations or failures that initiate safety-significant events, reduce existing accident mitigation capabilities, or create new failure modes. Plant designers commonly “over-design” portions of NPPs and provide robustness in the form of redundant and diverse engineered safety features to ensure that, even in the case of well-beyond design basis scenarios, public health and safety will be protected with a very high degree of assurance. This form of defense-in-depth is a reasoned response to uncertainties and is often referred to generically as “safety margin.” Historically, specific safety margin provisions have been formulated, primarily based on “engineering judgment.” The ability to better characterize (i.e., describe and quantify) safety margin is important to improved decision making about LWR design and long-term operation. A systematic approach to characterizing safety margins and the subsequent risk informed margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development (R&D) in the LWRS Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs (and concurrently support technological advances in nuclear reactor fuels and plant instrumentation and control systems), needs and opportunities to better optimize plant safety, economics, and performance will become known. The purpose of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway R&D is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs over periods of extended plant operations. The goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method that is coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of risk-informed margin management strategies; (2) create an advanced RISMC Toolkit that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margins. The methods and tools provided by RISMC are essential to a comprehensive and integrated risk-informed margin management approach that supports effective preservation of margin for both active and passive SSCs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

R&D Plan for RISMC Industry Application #1: ECCS/LOCA Cladding Acceptance Criteria

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is finalizing a rulemaking change that would revise the requirements in 10 CFR 50.46. In the proposed new rulemaking, designated as 10 CFR 50.46c, the NRC proposes a fuel performance-based equivalent cladding reacted (ECR) criterion as a function of cladding hydrogen content before the accident (pre-transient) in order to include the effects of higher burnup on cladding performance as well as to address other technical issues. A loss of operational margin may result due to the more restrictive cladding embrittlement criteria. Initial and future compliance with the rule may significantly increase vendor workload and licensee costs as a spectrum of fuel rod initial burnup states may need to be analyzed to demonstrate compliance. The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has initiated a project, as part of the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program (LWRS), to develop analytical capabilities to support the industry in the transition to the new rule. This project is called the Industry Application 1 (IA1) within the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway of LWRS. The general idea behind the initiative is the development of an Integrated Evaluation Model (IEM). The motivation is to develop a multiphysics framework to analyze how uncertainties are propagated across the stream of physical disciplines and data involved, as well as how risks are evaluated in a LOCA safety analysis as regulated under 10 CFR 50.46c. This IEM is called LOTUS which stands for LOCA Toolkit for US, and it represents the LWRS Program’s response to the proposed new rule making. The focus of this report is to complete an R&D plan to describe the demonstration of the LOCA/ECCS RISMC Industry Application # 1 using the advanced RISMC Toolkit and methodologies. This report includes the description and development plan for a RISMC LOCA tool that fully couples advanced MOOSE tools already in development in order to characterize and optimize plant safety and operational margins. Advanced MOOSE tools that are needed to complete this integrated evaluation model are: RAVEN, RELAP-7, BISON, and MAMMOTH.

10CFR50.46C↗
DOE OSTI2016

BWR station blackout: A RISMC analysis using RAVEN and RELAP5-3D

The existing fleet of nuclear power plants is in the process of extending its lifetime and increasing the power generated from these plants via power uprates and improved operations. In order to evaluate the impact of these factors on the safety of the plant, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) project aims to provide insights to decision makers through a series of simulations of the plant dynamics for different initial conditions and accident scenarios. This paper presents a case study in order to show the capabilities of the RISMC methodology to assess impact of power uprate of a Boiling Water Reactor system during a Station Black-Out accident scenario. We employ a system simulator code, RELAP5-3D, coupled with RAVEN which perform the stochastic analysis. Lastly, our analysis is performed by: 1) sampling values from a set of parameters from the uncertainty space of interest, 2) simulating the system behavior for that specific set of parameter values and 3) analyzing the outcomes from the set of simulation runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Quantifying Safety Margin Using the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC)

The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC), developed by Idaho National Laboratory as part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability Project, utilizes a probabilistic safety margin comparison between a load and capacity distribution, rather than a deterministic comparison between two values, as is usually done in best-estimate plus uncertainty analyses. The goal is to determine the failure probability, or in other words, the probability of the system load equaling or exceeding the system capacity. While this method has been used in pilot studies, there has been little work conducted investigating the statistical significance of the resulting failure probability. In particular, it is difficult to determine how many simulations are necessary to properly characterize the failure probability. This work uses classical (frequentist) statistics and confidence intervals to examine the impact in statistical accuracy when the number of simulations is varied. Two methods are proposed to establish confidence intervals related to the failure probability established using a RISMC analysis. The confidence interval provides information about the statistical accuracy of the method utilized to explore the uncertainty space, and offers a quantitative method to gauge the increase in statistical accuracy due to performing additional simulations.

Grabaskas, David↗
DOE OSTI2019

RISMC industry application #1 (ECCS/LOCA). Core characterization automation: Lattice codes interface for PHISICS/RELAP5-3D

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC) is currently proposing rule-making “10 CFR 50.46c” to revise the loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) and emergency core cooling system (ECCS) acceptance criteria to include the effects of higher burn-up on cladding performance. The key implications of this proposition are that the cladding performance cannot be evaluated anymore as separated from other disciplines, but needs to be evaluated in a coupled manner with other physics. The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway initiated several programs at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to support the industry in the transition to the new rule. One of these programs is the Industry Application #1 (IA1). IA1’s goal is to develop an Integrated Evaluation Model (IEM) called LOCA Toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This tool connects five major disciplines involved in LOCA analysis, among them is (automated) core design (CD-A). Here, this paper focuses solely on the design of LOTUS' CD-A module as well as a demonstration application of the CD-A module to a generic Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The demonstration of the other LOTUS disciplines together with a demonstration example of the final risk-informed safety margin analysis is published in a separate paper. LOTUS is meant to provide the methodology framework into which the user can plug his established tools and codes. With the CD-A, the plant owner/operator will characterize his core design with the tools he has. He will then integrate his tools/methods into the LOTUS framework for the downstream safety analysis. For the current CD-A demonstration, the tools used are the already coupled codes PHISICS and RELAP5-3D, while cross section generation is done using the Studsvik lattice code HELIOS-2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

A flooding induced station blackout analysis for a pressurized water reactor using the RISMC toolkit

In this paper we evaluate the impact of a power uprate on a pressurized water reactor (PWR) for a tsunami-induced flooding test case. This analysis is performed using the RISMC toolkit: the RELAP-7 and RAVEN codes. RELAP-7 is the new generation of system analysis codes that is responsible for simulating the thermal-hydraulic dynamics of PWR and boiling water reactor systems. RAVEN has two capabilities: to act as a controller of the RELAP-7 simulation (e.g., component/system activation) and to perform statistical analyses. In our case, the simulation of the flooding is performed by using an advanced smooth particle hydrodynamics code called NEUTRINO. The obtained results allow the user to investigate and quantify the impact of timing and sequencing of events on system safety. The impact of power uprate is determined in terms of both core damage probability and safety margins.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2018

STP/TAMU/INL Collaboration Update: LWRS Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Lead

Present a preliminary RISMC model, including plant model interfaces for Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty Loss-Of-Coolant Accident analysis using riskinformed analysis tools. Analysis results for a coupled core design, fuel/clad and systems analysis framework (LOTUS) will be presented for existing baseline codes (RELAP5-3D, FRAPCON) to Large Break Loss-Of-Coolant Accident scenarios

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

RISMC Industry Application no. 1 (ECCS/LOCA) - Core Characterization Automation: Lattice Codes Interface for PHISICS/RELAP5-3D

The U.S. NRC is currently proposing rulemaking '10 CFR 50.46c' to revise the loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) and emergency core cooling system (ECCS) acceptance criteria to include the effects of higher burn-up on cladding performance. The key implications of this proposition are that the cladding performance cannot be evaluated in isolation anymore. Both cladding and ECCS performance need to be considered in a coupled manner. This also implies that models for cladding performance as well as LOCA methodologies will need to be updated for regulatory purposes. Furthermore, efforts need to be made to find the limiting case within the regulatory input space. The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway, as part of the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) research and development program initialed several programs at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to support the industry in the transition to the new rule and to offer potential solutions to this LOCA/ECCS analysis. One of these programs is the Industry Application no. 1 (IA1). Its purpose is to provide to the plant owner/operator a vehicle to inform decisions to manage margins related to compliance with the proposed 10 CFR 50.46c rule. IA1's goal is to develop an Integrated Evaluation Model (IEM) to revisit how uncertainties are propagated across the physical disciplines and data involved, as well as well as how risks are evaluated in a LOCA under 10 CFR 50.46c. This IEM is called LOCA Tool-kit for the US (LOTUS) and it connects five major disciplines involved in LOCA analysis. The focus of LOTUS is to establish the automation interfaces among the five disciplines. LOTUS will utilize in a first step existing computer codes. The risk-informed margins management approach for IA1 will provide a means of quantifying the impact on the key LOCA analysis figures-of-merit like peak cladding temperature (PCT), equivalent cladding reacted (ECR), etc. of a change in LOCA analysis inputs. The information that the risk analysis and associated tools provide can then be used for decision-making and margin management. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

RISMC Industry Application no. 1 (ECCS/LOCA) Core characterization automation: Reference PWR designs for IA no. 1

The U.S. NRC is currently proposing rulemaking '10 CFR 50.46c' to revise the loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) and emergency core cooling system (ECCS) acceptance criteria to include the effects of higher burn-up on cladding performance. The key implications of this proposition are that both cladding and ECCS performance need to be considered in a coupled manner. This implies that LOCA methodologies will need to be updated for regulatory purposes. The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway, as part of the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) research and development program initialed several programs at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to support the industry by offering potential solutions to this new LOCA/ECCS analysis. One of these programs is the Industry Application no. 1 (IA1). It's goal is to develop an integrated evaluation model called LOCA Toolkit for the US (LOTUS) to revisit how risks are evaluated in a LOCA under 10 CFR 50.46c. The focus of LOTUS is to establish the automation interfaces among the physics disciplines involved, namely the core design automation, the fuels/clad performance, the system analysis, the risk assessment and the core design optimization. The risk-informed margins management approach for IA1 will provide a means of quantifying the impact on the key LOCA analysis figures-of-merit like peak cladding temperature (PCT), equivalent cladding reacted (ECR), etc. of a change in LOCA analysis inputs. The information obtained can then be used for decision-making and margin management. The modular approach for LOTUS will enable plant owners/vendors to further customize the LOTUS framework for use within their established codes and methods. One of the LOTUS modules deals with the core design automation (CD-A). The purpose of this module is to supply the LOCA analysis with initial conditions, i.e. assembly/pin power histories, power shapes, etc. to be employed by the Fuels/Clad Performance (EP) and System Analysis (SA) modules. In the CD-A module, the plant owner/operator will characterize his core design with the tools he has. For the current LOTUS demonstration, the tools used are the already coupled codes PHISICS and RELAP5-3D2,3. Cross section generation will be done using the Studsvik lattice code HELIOS-2.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway Technical Program Plan

Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). As the current Light Water Reactor (LWR) NPPs age beyond 60 years, there are possibilities for increased frequency of Systems, Structures, and Components (SSCs) degradations or failures that initiate safety-significant events, reduce existing accident mitigation capabilities, or create new failure modes. Plant designers commonly “over-design” portions of NPPs and provide robustness in the form of redundant and diverse engineered safety features to ensure that, even in the case of well-beyond design basis scenarios, public health and safety will be protected with a very high degree of assurance. This form of defense-in-depth is a reasoned response to uncertainties and is often referred to generically as “safety margin.” Historically, specific safety margin provisions have been formulated, primarily based on “engineering judgment.”

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

3D Simulation of External Flooding Events for the RISMC Pathway

Incorporating 3D simulations as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMIC) Toolkit allows analysts to obtain a more complete picture of complex system behavior for events including external plant hazards. External events such as flooding have become more important recently – however these can be analyzed with existing and validated simulated physics toolkits. In this report, we describe these approaches specific to flooding-based analysis using an approach called Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. The theory, validation, and example applications of the 3D flooding simulation are described. Integrating these 3D simulation methods into computational risk analysis provides a spatial/visual aspect to the design, improves the realism of results, and can prove visual understanding to validate the analysis of flooding.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program External review of Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) software for RISMC applications

The aim of this report is to describe the outcomes and findings of the review of the Risk Analysis and Virtual ENviroment (RAVEN) code performed by two external entities. In order to assess the code capabilities and maturity level from different prospective, a university (The Ohio State University) and a private company (FPoliSolutions LLC) have been identified for this review. These two groups provided an in-depth review of the RAVEN code – the resulting reviews were positive and included suggestions for potential enhancements to the code.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Systematic Enterprise Risk Management by Integrating the RISMC Toolkit and Cost-Benefit Analysis (Final Report)

The goal of this research is to theorize and quantify the relationships between safety and the financial performance of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The Socio-Technical Risk Analysis (SoTeRiA) theoretical framework, which connects the social aspects (e.g., safety culture) and structural features (e.g., safety practices) of an organization with organizational safety and financial risks, is used to theorize the direct and indirect relationships between safety and the financial performance of NPPs. An Integrated Enterprise Risk Management (I-ERM) methodological framework is developed to operationalize SoTeRiA to quantify NPP safety and financial performance in a unified platform where their underlying physical degradation mechanisms, coupled with maintenance performance (considering human and organizational factors), are explicitly incorporated to depict the interconnections and dependencies between safety and financial performance. In this study, NPP safety refers to both occupational safety and system safety (estimated from Probabilistic Risk Assessment, PRA), and financial performance refers to the monetary values associated with NPP operation and maintenance (O&M) strategies. This report covers a case study demonstrating the feasibility of the I-ERM methodological framework. More detailed development of one of the I-ERM modules, i.e., Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) analysis, and its connection with other I-ERM modules is demonstrated in a second case study. The outcome of this research will help NPP decision-makers create cost-saving maintenance strategies while maintaining safety by providing cost- and risk-informed recommendations regarding maintenance work processes and operational strategies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating static PRA information with risk informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) simulation methods

The overall objective of the project was to develop a computationally feasible and user-friendly mechanized process to integrate traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and dynamic PRA (DPRA) results. Starting with the systematic identification of items in an existing PRA that need dynamic augmentation, the project used a generic 4-loop pressurized reactor (PWR) and 3-loop PWR as example plants. Station blackout (SBO) and large break loss of coolant accident SBLOCA) were selected as the example initiating events. Using the traditional event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology augmented by dynamic evet tree approach, the potential consequences of the initiating events were simulated with RELAP-3D and MELCOR/RASCAL codes to cover Level 1 through Level 3 of PRA. RAVEN and ADAPT software were used to generate Level 1 simulations with RELAP-3D and Level 2/3 simulations with MELCOR (Level 2)/RASCAL (Level 3), respectively. Example branching conditions (BCs) for SBO included AC power recovery time, valve repair failure time, reactor coolant pump leak time/break size and emergency power supply duration to a total of 9. Example BCs for LOCA included off-site power recovery time, diesel generator power recovery time, auxiliary feed water system operation time, safety relief valve failure to open upon demand, reactor coolant pump seal break time and size to a total of 21. Each RELAP-3D simulation (9,587 scenarios) was labelled OK or Core Damage based on the maximum allowed peak clad temperature (2,100oF). Each MELCOR simulation (4610 scenarios) was labeled as Bin over 10rem or Bin 0-10rem based on the dose at the site boundary. The scenarios were clustered based on the criteria above using the mean shift methodology. Classical PRA (CPRA) and DPRA results were compared to identify the ET sequences that need DPRA augmentation. Several approaches were proposed for the incorporation of these sequences into CPRA using clustering with the mean shift methodology, restructuring the CPRA ETs by adding new BCs/sequences, and using the concept of a limit surface. Procedures for decision making regarding the possible consequences of an initiating event (e.g. core damage or not, site evacuation or not) were developed using a convolutional neural network (CNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and a transformer neural network (TNN). The project has led to two PhD degrees, three archival journal papers and five refereed conference proceedings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2016

RISMC Analysis Framework in Response to Proposed 10 CFR 50.46c Rulemaking

The results obtained from the demonstration calculations indicate that as an automation tool in LOCA analyses, LOTUS has the capability to provide integrated evaluation through seamless interfaces of the data stream in multiple disciplines. With further more development, LOTUS will provide a systematic way to perform uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis and risk assessment of the multiple physics involved in the LOCA analysis in response to the proposed 10 CFR 50.46c rulemaking. It can be used to obtain quantitative estimate of design or operational margin loss or gain as well as to assess the impact on LOCA analysis safety metrics associated with various combinations of changes in LOCA analysis inputs. It can also aid plant owners to make decision on evaluating design changes as well as resolving operational issues. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗