Reference priors and model inference
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MODEL INFERENCE↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Experimental Studies of Elementary Particle Interactions at High Energies
This is the final report of a program of research on "Experimental Studies of Elementary Particle Interactions at High Energies'' of the High Energy Physics (HEP) group of The Rockefeller University. The research was carried out using the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) and the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. Three faculty members, two research associates, and two postdoctoral associates participated in this project. At CDF, we studied proton-antiproton collisions at an energy of 1.96 TeV. We focused on diffractive interactions, in which the colliding antiproton loses a small fraction of its momentum, typically less than 1%, while the proton is excited into a high mass state retaining its quantum numbers. The study of such collisions provides insight into the nature of the diffractive exchange, conventionally referred to as Pomeron exchange. In studies of W and Z production, we found results that point to a QCD-based interpretation of the diffractive exchange, as predicted in a data-driven phenomenology developed within the Rockefeller HEP group. At CMS, we worked on diffraction, supersymmetry (SUSY), dark matter, large extra dimensions, and statistical applications to data analysis projects. In diffraction, we extended our CDF studies to higher energies working on two fronts: measurement of the single/double diffraction and of the rapidity gap cross sections at 7 TeV, and development of a simulation of diffractive processes along the lines of our successful model used at CDF. Working with the PYTHIA8 Monte Carlo simulation authors, we implemented our model as a PYTHIA8-MBR option in PYTHIA8 and used it in our data analysis. Preliminary results indicate good agreement. We searched for SUSY by measuring parameters in the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (CMSSM) and found results which, combined with other experimental constraints and theoretical considerations, indicate that the CMSSM is not a viable model. Expressing our results in terms of simple topologies, we exclude squark masses below 0.75 TeV and gluino masses below 1.1 TeV. Astrophysical measurements suggest that about 80% of the matter density of the Universe is non-luminous. One of the theories on dark matter attributes it to Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs). We searched for WIMPs in 7 TeV and 8 TeV collisions at CMS and set limits on WIMP production rates, which are competitive and complementary to those of direct detection experiments. Searching for monojets (events with only one jet), which in a popular model could be produced by a jet paired by a gravitino that escapes into extra dimensions, we significantly improved the previously set limit. Our results have been used to set limits on Higgs decay to invisible particles and on production of top squarks in compressed SUSY scenarios. Statistics. We computed Bayesian reference priors for several types of measurement and used them in the analysis of CMS data; investigated the applicability of bootstrap methods to HEP measurements; studied several issues associated with simple-versus-simple hypothesis testing and applied the resulting methods to the measurement of some properties of the top quark and Higgs boson.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Time Disciplined Non-PLL Active Synchronization for Grid Forming Inverters
Two major issues facing grid-forming inverters are synchronism and phase reference inaccuracies. Prior literature has addressed these problems with solutions such as disciplining the phase reference using GPS and active synchronization modes but these methods have not yet been integrated together. This paper serves to unite solutions and develop a means for an inverter to remain synchronized and grid-forming without phase reference inaccuracies through a novel time-disciplined active synchronization phase reference. Further, this work expands upon prior literature on active synchronization to include black-start capabilities. Finally, the time disciplined phase reference is evaluated in Simulink as a grid-forming inverter capable of any synchronization circumstance and assessed by key metrics from modern standards.
blackstart↗
SU-F-T-139: Meeting the Challenges of Quality Control in the TOPAS Monte Carlo Simulation Toolkit for Proton Therapy
Purpose: Monte Carlo particle transport simulation (MC) codes have become important tools in proton therapy and biology, both for research and practice. TOPAS is an MC toolkit serving users worldwide (213 licensed users at 95 institutions in 21 countries). It provides unprecedented ease in 4D placement of geometry components, beam sources and scoring through its user-friendly and reproducible parameter file interface. Quality control (QC) of stochastic simulation software is inherently difficult, and the versatility of TOPAS introduces additional challenges. But QC is vital as the TOPAS development team implements new features, addresses user feedback and reacts to upgrades of underlying software (i.e. Geant4). Methods: Whenever code is committed to our repository, over 50 separate module tests are automatically triggered via a continuous integration service. They check that the various module options execute successfully and that their results are statistically consistent with previous reference values. Prior to each software release, longer end-to-end tests automatically validate TOPAS against experimental data and a TOPAS benchmark. These include simulating multiple properties of spread-out Bragg peaks, validating nuclear models, and searching for differences in patient simulations. Results: Continuous integration has proven effective in catching regressions at the time they are introduced, particularly when implementing new features that involve refactoring code (e.g. multithreading and ntuple output). Code coverage statistics highlight untested portions of code and guide development of new tests. The various end-to-end tests demonstrate that TOPAS accurately describes the physics of proton therapy within clinical tolerances. Conclusion: The TOPAS QC strategy of frequent short tests and pre-release long tests has led to a more reliable tool. However, the versatility of TOPAS makes it difficult to predict how users might combine different modules, and so QC ultimately remains a partnership between the developer and the user. This work was funded by National Cancer Institute grant R01 CA 140735.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
MO-FG-CAMPUS-JeP3-03: Detection of Unpredictable Patient Movement During SBRT Using a Single KV Projection of An On-Board CBCT System: Simulation Study
Purpose: An unpredictable movement of a patient can occur during SBRT even when immobilization devices are applied. In the SBRT treatments using a conventional linear accelerator detection of such movements relies heavily on human interaction and monitoring. This study aims to detect such positional abnormalities in real-time by assessing intra-fractional gantry mounted kV projection images of a patient’s spine. Methods: We propose a self-CBCT image based spine tracking method consisting of the following steps: (1)Acquire a pre-treatment CBCT image; (2)Transform the CBCT volume according to the couch correction; (3)Acquire kV projections during treatment beam delivery; (4)Simultaneously with each acquisition generate a DRR from the CBCT volume based-on the current projection geometry; (5)Perform an intensity gradient-based 2D registration between spine ROI images of the projection and the DRR images; (6)Report an alarm if the detected 2D displacement is beyond a threshold value. To demonstrate the feasibility, retrospective simulations were performed on 1,896 projections from nine CBCT sessions of three patients who received lung SBRT. The unpredictable movements were simulated by applying random rotations and translations to the reference CBCT prior to each DRR generation. As the ground truth, the 3D translations and/or rotations causing >3 mm displacement of the midpoint of the thoracic spine were regarded as abnormal. In the measurements, different threshold values of 2D displacement were tested to investigate sensitivity and specificity of the proposed method. Results: A linear relationship between the ground truth 3D displacement and the detected 2D displacement was observed (R{sup 2} = 0.44). When the 2D displacement threshold was set to 3.6 mm the overall sensitivity and specificity were 77.7±5.7% and 77.9±3.5% respectively. Conclusion: In this simulation study, it was demonstrated that intrafractional kV projections from an on-board CBCT system have a potential to detect unpredictable patient movement during SBRT. This research is funded by Interfractional Imaging Research Grant from Elekta.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns
The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Monte Carlo Techniques for Nuclear Systems - Theory Lectures
These are lecture notes for a Monte Carlo class given at the University of New Mexico. The following topics are covered: course information; nuclear eng. review & MC; random numbers and sampling; computational geometry; collision physics; tallies and statistics; eigenvalue calculations I; eigenvalue calculations II; eigenvalue calculations III; variance reduction; parallel Monte Carlo; parameter studies; fission matrix and higher eigenmodes; doppler broadening; Monte Carlo depletion; HTGR modeling; coupled MC and T/H calculations; fission energy deposition. Solving particle transport problems with the Monte Carlo method is simple - just simulate the particle behavior. The devil is in the details, however. These lectures provide a balanced approach to the theory and practice of Monte Carlo simulation codes. The first lectures provide an overview of Monte Carlo simulation methods, covering the transport equation, random sampling, computational geometry, collision physics, and statistics. The next lectures focus on the state-of-the-art in Monte Carlo criticality simulations, covering the theory of eigenvalue calculations, convergence analysis, dominance ratio calculations, bias in Keff and tallies, bias in uncertainties, a case study of a realistic calculation, and Wielandt acceleration techniques. The remaining lectures cover advanced topics, including HTGR modeling and stochastic geometry, temperature dependence, fission energy deposition, depletion calculations, parallel calculations, and parameter studies. This portion of the class focuses on using MCNP to perform criticality calculations for reactor physics and criticality safety applications. It is an intermediate level class, intended for those with at least some familiarity with MCNP. Class examples provide hands-on experience at running the code, plotting both geometry and results, and understanding the code output. The class includes lectures & hands-on computer use for a variety of Monte Carlo calculations. Beginning MCNP users are encouraged to review LA-UR-09-00380, "Criticality Calculations with MCNP: A Primer (3nd Edition)" (available at http:// mcnp.lanl.gov under "Reference Collection") prior to the class. No Monte Carlo class can be complete without having students write their own simple Monte Carlo routines for basic random sampling, use of the random number generator, and simplified particle transport simulation.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
U.S. Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi - November 2022 Meeting Notes and Information Request Status
Information obtained from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi) is required to inform future Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This information also has important implications for the safety and operation of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This document summarizes results from the Fiscal Year 2023 (FY2023) U.S. effort to review Daiichi information and extract insights to enhance the safety of existing and future nuclear power plant designs. This U.S. effort, which was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, is completed by a group of experts in reactor safety and plant operations that identify examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. Fukushima-related information and associated discussions during these meetings benefit operating, new, and advanced reactors. Significant safety insights have been and are continuing to be obtained in several areas: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties related to severe accident modeling progression, these insights have and continue to be used to update guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Furthermore, Daiichi-related activities, such as code modeling improvements and analysis, testing, and new technology deployment efforts, have the potential to offer additional benefits to the operating fleet and new LWR and non-LWR designs. U.S. evaluations of obtained examination information and input regarding future Daiichi examinations are of interest to several organizations within Japan. Since its inception, the U.S. has provided consensus input for high priority time-sequenced examination tasks and supporting research activities. In their Mid-to-Long-term Examination Plan for 1F investigations, TEPCO included all remaining U.S. consensus information requests and additional information requests they identified. TEPCO periodically provides reports on the status of these requests (reflecting D&D priorities, new insights from investigations, and new technologies that become available). Hence, U.S. experts agreed that it was appropriate for TEPCO to track and prioritize these information requests as D&D progresses. U.S. experts will continue to review and comment on the information obtained from examinations and, as needed, provide additional details and relevant background material to support future examinations. As documented in this report, several other items, such as additional details on information requests pertaining to ex-vessel examinations, relevant references from prior research, additional documents to provide insights regarding recent investigation findings, and reviews of recently released documents, were agreed to during the FY2023 meeting.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Determining the slag fraction, water/binder ratio and degree of hydration in hardened cement pastes
A method for determining the original mix composition of hardened slag-blended cement-based materials based on analysis of backscattered electron images combined with loss on ignition measurements is presented. The method does not require comparison to reference standards or prior knowledge of the composition of the binders used. Therefore, it is well-suited for application to real structures. The method is also able to calculate the degrees of reaction of slag and cement. Results obtained from an experimental study involving sixty samples with a wide range of water/binder (w/b) ratios (0.30 to 0.50), slag/binder ratios (0 to 0.6) and curing ages (3 days to 1 year) show that the method is very promising. The mean absolute errors for the estimated slag, water and cement contents (kg/m{sup 3}), w/b and s/b ratios were 9.1%, 1.5%, 2.5%, 4.7% and 8.7%, respectively. 91% of the estimated w/b ratios were within 0.036 of the actual values. -- Highlights: •A new method for estimating w/b ratio and slag content in cement pastes is proposed. •The method is also able to calculate the degrees of reaction of slag and cement. •Reference standards or prior knowledge of the binder composition are not required. •The method was tested on samples with varying w/b ratios and slag content.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Video-Game-Like Engine for Depicting Spacecraft Trajectories
GoView is a video-game-like software engine, written in the C and C++ computing languages, that enables real-time, three-dimensional (3D)-appearing visual representation of spacecraft and trajectories (1) from any perspective; (2) at any spatial scale from spacecraft to Solar-system dimensions; (3) in user-selectable time scales; (4) in the past, present, and/or future; (5) with varying speeds; and (6) forward or backward in time. GoView constructs an interactive 3D world by use of spacecraft-mission data from pre-existing engineering software tools. GoView can also be used to produce distributable application programs for depicting NASA orbital missions on personal computers running the Windows XP, Mac OsX, and Linux operating systems. GoView enables seamless rendering of Cartesian coordinate spaces with programmable graphics hardware, whereas prior programs for depicting spacecraft trajectories variously require non-Cartesian coordinates and/or are not compatible with programmable hardware. GoView incorporates an algorithm for nonlinear interpolation between arbitrary reference frames, whereas the prior programs are restricted to special classes of inertial and non-inertial reference frames. Finally, whereas the prior programs present complex user interfaces requiring hours of training, the GoView interface provides guidance, enabling use without any training.
Upchurch, Paul R.↗
Multipath Curved Planar Reformations of Peripheral CT Angiography: Diagnostic Accuracy and Time Efficiency
ObjectivesTo compare diagnostic performance and time efficiency between 3D multipath curved planar reformations (mpCPRs) and axial images of CT angiography for the pre-interventional assessment of peripheral arterial disease (PAD), with digital subtraction angiography as the standard of reference.MethodsForty patients (10 females, mean age 72 years), referred to CTA prior to endovascular treatment of PAD, were prospectively included and underwent peripheral CT angiography. A semiautomated toolbox was used to render mpCPRs. Twenty-one arterial segments were defined in each leg; for each segment, the presence of stenosis > 70% was assessed on mpCPRs and axial images by two readers, independently, with digital subtraction angiography as gold standard.ResultsBoth readers reached lower sensitivity (Reader 1: 91 vs. 94%, p = 0.08; Reader 2: 89 vs. 93%, p = 0.03) but significantly higher specificity (Reader 1: 94 vs. 89%, p < 0.01; Reader 2: 96 vs. 95%, p = 0.01) with mpCPRs than with axial images. Reader 1 achieved significantly higher accuracy with mpCPRs (93 vs. 91%, p = 0.02), and Reader 2 had similar overall accuracy in both evaluations (94 vs. 94%, p = 0.96). Both readers read mpCPRs significantly faster than axial images (Reader 1: 5′45″ based on mpCPRs vs. 7′40″ based on axial images; Reader 2: 4′41″ based on mpCPRs vs. 6′57″ based on axial images; p < 0.01).ConclusionsmpCPRs are a promising 3D reformation technique that facilitates a fast assessment of PAD with high diagnostic accuracy.
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
Intelligent multi-zone residential HVAC control strategy based on deep reinforcement learning
Residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) has been considered as an important demand response resource. However, the optimization of residential HVAC control is no trivial task due to the complexity of the thermal dynamic models of buildings and uncertainty associated with both occupant-driven heat loads and weather forecasts. In this paper, we apply a novel model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL) method, known as the deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG), to generate an optimal control strategy for a multi-zone residential HVAC system with the goal of minimizing energy consumption cost while maintaining the users’ comfort. Here, the applied deep RL-based method learns through continuous interaction with a simulated building environment and without referring to any prior model knowledge. Simulation results show that compared with the state-of-art deep Q network (DQN), the DDPG-based HVAC control strategy can reduce the energy consumption cost by 15% and reduce the comfort violation by 79%; and when compared with a rule-based HVAC control strategy, the comfort violation can be reduced by 98%. In addition, experiments with different building models and retail price models demonstrate that the well-trained DDPG-based HVAC control strategy has high generalization and adaptability to unseen environments, which indicates its practicability for real-world implementation.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
On the helicity of open magnetic fields
We reconsider the topological interpretation of magnetic helicity for magnetic fields in open domains, and relate this to the relative helicity. Specifically, our domains stretch between two parallel planes, and each of these ends may be magnetically open. It is demonstrated that, while the magnetic helicity is gauge-dependent, its value in any gauge may be physically interpreted as the average winding number among all pairs of field lines with respect to some orthonormal frame field. In fact, the choice of gauge is equivalent to the choice of reference field in the relative helicity, meaning that the magnetic helicity is no less physically meaningful. We prove that a particular gauge always measures the winding with respect to a fixed frame, and propose that this is normally the best choice. For periodic fields, this choice is equivalent to measuring relative helicity with respect to a potential reference field. However, for aperiodic fields, we show that the potential field can be twisted. We prove by construction that there always exists a possible untwisted reference field.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Nuclear Data Dimension Reduction
Our nuclear data consist of 30 energy group cross sections as well as nubar and PFNS. They are sampled from a Gaussian distribution with correlations shown in Figure 1. A few of these samples are shown in Figure 2. The purpose of this section is to describe how we can reduce the dimension of the nuclear data for purposes of uncertainty quantification. Sections 2 and 3 describe why dimension reduction is useful, as well as our approach to dimension reduction. When using these nuclear data as inputs to the PARTISN code, some of the resulting $k_{eff}$ values are unrealistic. For instance, when PARTISN is simulating the Jezebel critical assembly, some of the nuclear data yield $k_{eff}$ far from one. We would like to weight the nuclear data combinations that yield more realistic output higher, while downweighting those that result in unrealistic output. Our approach to this is described in Section 4. Throughout the other sections, we will merely refer to a prior distribution of nuclear data, which is not constrained by the Jezebel experiment, and a posterior distribution of nuclear data, which is conditioned on satisfactory performance for the Jezebel experiment. For instance, the correlation matrix for the reweighted (posterior) nuclear data is shown in Figure 3, along with the difference from the prior correlation matrix. Finally, we will describe dimension reduction results in Section 5.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Research in the design of high-performance reconfigurable systems
An initial design for the Bit Processor (BP) referred to in prior reports as the Processing Element or PE has been completed. Eight BP's, together with their supporting random-access memory, a 64 k x 9 ROM to perform addition, routing logic, and some additional logic, constitute the components of a single stage. An initial stage design is given. Stages may be combined to perform high-speed fixed or floating point arithmetic. Stages can be configured into a range of arithmetic modules that includes bit-serial one or two-dimensional arrays; one or two dimensional arrays fixed or floating point processors; and specialized uniprocessors, such as long-word arithmetic units. One to eight BP's represent a likely initial chip level. The Stage would then correspond to a first-level pluggable module. As both this project and VLSI CAD/CAM progress, however, it is expected that the chip level would migrate upward to the stage and, perhaps, ultimately the box level. The BP RAM, consisting of two banks, holds only operands and indices. Programs are at the box (high-level function) and system level. At the system level initial effort has been concentrated on specifying the tools needed to evaluate design alternatives.
Slotnick, D. L.↗
Introduction to the World Wide Web and Mosaic
This tutorial provides an introduction to some of the terminology related to the use of the World Wide Web and Mosaic. It is assumed that the user has some prior computer experience. References are included to other sources of additional information.
Youngblood, Jim↗
Solar Arrays for Low-Irradiance Low-Temperature and High-Radiation Environments
This is the Base Period final report DRAFT for the JPL task 'Solar Arrays for Low-Irradiance Low-Temperature and High-Radiation Environments', under Task Plan 77-16518 TA # 21, for NASA's Extreme Environments Solar Power (EESP) project. This report covers the Base period of performance, 7/18/2016 through 5/2/2017.The goal of this project is to develop an ultra-high efficiency lightweight scalable solar array technology for low irradiance, low temperature and high-radiation (LILT/Rad) environments. The benefit this technology will bring to flight systems is a greater than 20 reduction in solar array surface area, and a six-fold reduction in solar array mass and volume. The EESP project objectives are summarized in the 'NRA Goal' column of Table 1. Throughout this report, low irradiance low temperature (LILT) refers to 5AU -125 C test conditions; beginning of life (BOL) refers to the cell state prior to radiation exposure; and end of life (EOL) refers to the test article condition after exposure to a radiation dose of 4e15 1MeV e(-)/cm(exp 2).
Boca, Andreea↗