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A baroclinic quasigeostrophic open ocean model

A baroclinic quasigeostrophic open ocean model is presented, calibrated by a series of test problems, and demonstrated to be feasible and efficient for application to realistic mid-oceanic mesoscale eddy flow regimes. Two methods of treating the depth dependence of the flow, a finite difference method and a collocation method, are tested and intercompared. Sample Rossby wave calculations with and without advection are performed with constant stratification and two levels of nonlinearity, one weaker than and one typical of real ocean flows. Using exact analytical solutions for comparison, the accuracy and efficiency of the model is tabulated as a function of the computational parameters and stability limits set; typically, errors were controlled between 1 percent and 10 percent RMS after two wave periods. Further Rossby wave tests with realistic stratification and wave parameters chosen to mimic real ocean conditions were performed to determine computational parameters for use with real and simulated data. Finally, a prototype calculation with quasiturbulent simulated data was performed successfully, which demonstrates the practicality of the model for scientific use.

Miller, R. N.

Sudden stratospheric warmings forced by mountains

A global, quasigeostrophic model of planetary wave interaction with the mean zonal flow has been used to simulate sudden stratospheric warmings forced by mean tropospheric zonal winds interacting with orography. Planetary waves m = 1 and 2 are simultaneously computed and interact with each other only through the mean zonal flow. An increase in the jet stream maximum from 36 to 48 m/sec is sufficient to initiate repeated major warmings with an approximate 80 day cycle. These results are in agreement with the observed anticorrelation of the annual variation of the winter monthly averaged jet stream strength and polar night jet strength.

Schoeberl, M. R.

Nonlinear Ensemble Filtering with Diffusion Models: Application to the Surface Quasigeostrophic Dynamics

The intersection between classical data assimilation methods and novel machine learning techniques has attracted significant interest in recent years. Here, we explore another promising solution in which diffusion models are used to formulate a robust nonlinear ensemble filter for sequential data assimilation. Unlike standard machine learning methods, the proposed ensemble score filter (EnSF) is completely training free and can efficiently generate a set of analysis ensemble members. Here, in this study, we apply the EnSF to a surface quasigeostrophic model and compare its performance against the popular local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), which makes Gaussian assumptions in the analysis step. Numerical tests demonstrate that EnSF maintains stable performance in the absence of localization and for a variety of experimental settings. We find that while LETKF maintains optimal performance in the case of linear observations of the entire state and a perfect model, EnSF shows improvements over LETKF when nonlinear observations are assimilated and the system is subject to unexpected model errors. A spectral decomposition of the analysis results in this nonlinear observation regime shows that the largest improvements over LETKF occur at large scales (small wavenumbers), where LETKF lacks sufficient ensemble spread. Overall, this initial application of EnSF to a geophysical model of intermediate complexity motivates further development of the algorithm for more realistic problems.

Artificial intelligence

Maintenance of quasi-stationary waves in a two-level quasi-geostrophic spectral model with topography

A study of the maintenance of the quasistationary waves forced by topography using a truncated two-level quasigeostrophic spectral model in a zonal channel on a beta-plane is presented. The model's motion contains wavenumbers 0, n, and 2n in the zonal direction, where n is the lowest eddy wavenumber and also the wavenumber of the topography. The study covered the two cases defined by n=2 and n=3; the spectral mode was integrated by initially perturbing the stationary solution of the equations governing the spectral coefficients, and a detailed energetics study was made of the quasiequilibrium state to study the maintenance of the quasistationary waves. The energy conversions required for maintaining these waves when n=3 imply that they are generated mainly by baroclinic stability of the forced waves; this type of baroclinic wave tends to become stationary to draw efficiently on the available energy of the forced wave.

Yao, M.-S.

The zonally averaged circulation of the middle atmosphere

The steady-state, zonally averaged circulation of the middle atmosphere (15-125 km) is studied with a quasigeostrophic, numerical model that explicitly includes a self-consistent calculation of solar radiative heating due to O2 and O3 absorption, Newtonian cooling, Rayleigh friction, tropopause boundary conditions based on climatological averages, and the effects of vertically propagating planetary waves. It is found that the direct, radiatively driven pole-to-pole circulation at solstice is sufficient to account for the cold summer mesopause and warm isothermal winter mesosphere with associated zonal jets of realistic magnitude. The climatological heat and momentum fluxes associated with planetary wavenumber 2 have a negligible effect on the mean circulation. With planetary wavenumber 1, no steady-state solution could be obtained due to the formation of easterlies and hence critical layers in the winter mesosphere. The radiative heating associated with secondary peaks in the O3 density at the mesopause could render the polar mesopause region convectively unstable.

Schoeberl, M. R.

Eddy heat fluxes and stability of planetary waves. I, II

The stability of baroclinic Rossby waves in a zonal shear flow was analyzed by a linear, quasigeostrophic, two-level, adiabatic, and frictionless midlatitude beta-plane model. The ratio of the basic wave scale and the radius of deformation together with two nondimensional parameters which describe the amplitudes of the barotropic and baroclinic components of the basic wave constitute the three parameters of the stability problem. The parameter space is partitioned according to the dominant energy source for instability; the Lorenz and Kim conditions are characterized by significant horizontal and vertical shears of the basic wave, while the Phillips regime has a strong zonal flow. The stability analysis is then applied to the atmosphere, with the primary motivation being to examine the midlatitude planetary scale (zonal wavenumbers 1, 2, 3) transient waves that transport heat. It is found that the most unstable mode consists of a spectrum of waves, with a maximum amplitude at wavenumber 3; the response is thus maximum at a zonal scale intermediate between the basic wave scale and the radius of deformation.

Lin, C. A.

Baroclinic instability with variable gravity: A perturbation analysis

Solutions for a quasigeostrophic baroclinic stability problem in which gravity is a function of height were obtained. Curvature and horizontal shear of the basic state flow were omitted and the vertical and horizontal temperature gradients of the basic state were taken as constant. The effect of a variable dielectric body force, analogous to gravity, on baroclinic instability for the design of a spherical, baroclinic model for Spacelab was determined. Such modeling could not be performed in a laboratory on the Earth's surface because the body force could not be made strong enough to dominate terrestrial gravity. A consequence of the body force variation and the preceding assumptions was that the potential vorticity gradient of the basic state vanished. The problem was solved using a perturbation method. The solution gives results which are qualitatively similar to Eady's results for constant gravity; a short wavelength cutoff and a wavelength of maximum growth rate were observed. The averaged values of the basic state indicate that both the wavelength range of the instability and the growth rate at maximum instability are increased. Results indicate that the presence of the variable body force will not significantly alter the dynamics of the Spacelab experiment. The solutions are also relevant to other geophysical fluid flows where gravity is constant but the static stability or Brunt-Vaisala frequency is a function of height.

Giere, A. C.