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At least 19 records

Debunking common myths in coastal circulation modeling

Despite tremendous progress in algorithm development, computational efficiency and transition into operations over the past two decades, coastal modeling still lacks scientific rigor due to proliferation of many ‘gray’ areas related to various modeling choices made by modelers. Here, in this paper, we propose some guiding principles for the modeling community to improve performance, and we also debunk commonly held myths that make the coastal modeling lack rigor. Using our own experience in developing seamless cross-scale unstructured-grid based models for the past two decades, we describe in unprecedented detail the end-to-end modeling process (i.e., from digital elevation models (DEMs) to mesh generation to post analysis), and demonstrate that defensible modeling is within reach for any end user by following three guiding principles: (1) Bathymetry is a first order forcing in coastal domains and thus should be respected in all aspects of modeling; (2) Oceanographic processes are driven across multiple spatial scales and so models should enable appropriate resolution as needed; and (3) Model assessment should focus on physical processes. Through qualitative and quantitative model assessments, we demonstrate the fundamental role played by bathymetry/topography as embedded in DEMs in making the results defensible, which is unfortunately glossed over in many modeling studies. Focusing on process-based assessment simplifies the calibration process. A major conclusion of this work is that model developers and operators should maximize the scientific rigor for in silico oceanography by avoiding some common pitfalls that rely on error compensation at the expense of representation of physical system processes. We present some best practice procedures for defensive and trustworthy numerical modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evidence-Based Process for Assessing Teamwork Competencies in Applicant Performance in High-Risk, Operational Occupations

In this work, we provide a detailed look at how behavioral competencies necessary for high-risk, operational jobs, including task- and person-oriented aspects of teamwork, leadership, and followership, should be defined and operationalized in context. These competencies are thought to positively predict performance in aerospace professions. Indeed, the assessments applied in high stakes selection contexts and the way associated behavioral competencies are evaluated must be carefully considered to ensure that optimal applicants are selected. We provide insight into the behavioral competency development and measurement process, elaborating upon particularly critical competencies (i.e., team orientation) and describing challenges to measurement.

Isabel Bilotta↗

Process-based climate change assessment for European winds using EURO-CORDEX and global models

Wind energy is an important pillar of decarbonization strategies and potentially vulnerable to climate change. Existing wind climate change assessments rely on climate models but a systematic investigation of the global-to-regional climate modeling chain is missing. In this study, I highlight key limitations, namely (a) the differing representation of land use change in global and regional climate models which compromises comparability, and (b) the consistency of large-scale features along the global-to-regional climate modeling chain. To this end, I analyze the large European Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble (rcp85: N = 49; rcp45: N= 18; rcp26: N = 22) along with the driving global models (rcp85: N = 7; rcp45: N = 5; rcp26: N = 7), finding evidence that climate change reduces mean wind speeds by up to -0.8 ms -1 (offshore) and -0.3 ms -1 (onshore). I provide physical explanations for these changes by identifying two key drivers. First, onshore wind speeds drop in the driving global models in regions and scenarios with strong land use change but show no drop in EURO-CORDEX where land use is held constant. Second, offshore wind reductions follow decreases in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient remarkably well with correlations reaching around 0.9 in resource-rich European countries like Ireland, the United Kingdom and Norway, implying that arctic amplification is a severe risk for European offshore wind energy. My results suggest that earlier conclusions of negligible climate change impacts on wind energy might be premature if either land use changes strongly or polar amplification is at or above the range sampled in global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessing Multi-Dimensional Impacts of Achieving Sustainability Goals by Projecting the Sustainable Agriculture Matrix Into the Future

The concept of sustainability inherently spans multiple spatial scales, sectors, variables, and time horizons. This study links a recently developed method of assessing present-day agricultural sustainability across environmental, economic, and social dimensions with a process-based integrated assessment model, in order to allow forward-looking analysis of sustainability by region and scenario. The sustainable agriculture matrix estimates present-day agricultural sustainability at the national level using 18 indicator variables, of which this study estimates nine to the year 2100, using an enhanced version of the Global Change Analysis Model. Scenarios include a reference scenario, and scenarios that apply the following measures, both individually and in combination, that are thought to improve sustainability: yield intensification, transition toward more plant-based (“flexitarian”) diets, and economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. The scenarios illustrate considerable complexity and tradeoffs inherent to efforts to improve agricultural sustainability in all regions globally. For example, yield intensification typically increases nitrogen pollution, flexitarian diets can reduce agricultural output, and greenhouse gas mitigation efforts may either increase deforestation or crowd out crop and livestock production due to consequent bioenergy demands. However, there is considerable inter-regional heterogeneity in the responses, and the importance of such secondary responses also differs by region. The analysis and post-processing methods developed in this study allow quantification and visualization of the absolute and relative magnitude of the tradeoffs between agricultural sustainability indicator variables across regions, time periods, and scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary two-page assessment representing the state of knowledge/evidence of that risk, available risk mitigations, traceability to the Space Flight Human System Standards (SFHSS) and program requirements, and future work required. These data then can drive coordinated budgets across the Human Research Program, the International Space Station, Crew Health and Safety and Advanced Exploration System budgets to provide the most economical and timely mitigations. The risk assessments were completed for the 6 DRMs and serve as the baseline for which subsequent research and technology development and crew health care portfolios can be assessed. The HSRB reviews each risk at least annually or when new evidence/information is available that adds to the body of evidence. The current status of each risk can be reported to program management for operations, budget reviews and general oversight of the human system risk management program.

Francisco, D.↗

Process-based cost estimation framework for assessing economic viability of environmentally and socially sustainable rare earth element feedstocks

Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are critical raw material inputs that are required to enable the energy transition. Constraints on the U.S. supply of conventional REE feedstocks and the desire to diversify U.S. reliance on foreign supply chains have motivated the pursuit of REE recovery from unconventional feedstocks including waste products. Recovery of REEs from unconventional sources is also motivated by environmental and social considerations, including the potential to offset new mining activity and subsidize the remediation of REE-containing wastes from coal, natural gas, and other mineral extraction activities. Sourcing REEs from unconventional feedstocks would reduce supply chain constraints and minimize the environmental impacts of REE extraction, but current processes to exploit these feedstocks have uncertain technical and economic performance and the processes have not been demonstrated at scale. This work aims to reduce uncertainty in evaluating the performance of new REE production pathways. A database of operating and capital expenses for REE recovery and establish consistent process unit costs for common stages in the conventional supply chain are developed. Market prices are used to develop well-defined methods for determining product values for a diverse set of products that can be generated (e.g. oxalates, alloys, end-use products such as magnets) but are not typically considered in technoeconomic analyses. Finally, to provide insight on the effects of economies of scale and feedstock purity on capital and operating costs, process unit level cost functions relating total costs per kilogram of REE produced are reported. These tools can be applied to assess and facilitate scale-up of REE production from diverse sources of REEs.

Fritz, Alison↗

Treatment of Lagoon Dairy Manure Wastewater via Iron Electrocoagulation, Microfiltration, and Adsorption

Dairy manure wastewater generated by flushing barn cow waste contains nutrients, pathogens, and organic and inorganic contaminants. This study utilized a process consisting of iron electrocoagulation (Fe-EC), microfiltration (MF), and activated carbon (AC) adsorption to treat farm wastewater and explore the reclamation of clean water for irrigation and livestock consumption. Significant removal (>99.9%) of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total organic carbon (TOC), phosphorus (P), turbidity, and microorganisms, as well as ions including magnesium, calcium, sulfur, and silica was achieved by the combined EC-MF-AC process. Specifically, a charge loading of ∼37,500 C/L in a continuous-flow EC configuration, followed by MF, achieved more than 95% removal of TOC and COD. Characterization of produced flocs and foam via scanning-electron microscopy with energy-dispersal spectroscopy and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy confirmed the removal of ions, including calcium, sulfur, and silica. A key finding was the electrocatalytic conversion of nitrogen species to ammonia gas through the intermediate reduction of nitrate/nitrite, which led to ∼60% total nitrogen (TN) removal. AC treatment further improved TN removal to ∼70%. The Fe-EC process also eradicated >99.9% of bacteria. Preliminary process cost assessment, based on recycled materials for EC electrodes, showed significant cost savings (∼2 times) compared to commercial electrodes.

Dutta, Swapnamoy [ORNL]↗

The surprisingly inexpensive cost of state-driven emission control strategies

Traditionally, analysis of the costs of cutting greenhouse gas emissions has assumed that governments would implement idealized, optimal policies such as uniform economy-wide carbon taxes. Yet actual policies in the real world, especially in large federal governments, are often highly heterogeneous and vary in political support and administrative capabilities within a country. While the benefits of heterogeneous action have been discussed widely for experimentation and leadership, little is known about its costs. Focusing on the United States, we represent plausible variation (by more than a factor of 3) in the stringency of state-led climate policy in a process-based integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA). For a wide array of national decarbonization targets, we find that the nationwide cost from heterogeneous subnational policies is only one-tenth higher than nationally uniform policies. Such results hinge on two critical technologies (advanced biofuels and electricity) for which inter-state trade ameliorates the economic efficiencies that might arise with heterogeneous action.

Peng, Wei↗

A Constitutive Structural Parameter for the Work Hardening Behavior of Additively Manufactured Ti-6Al-4V

The mechanical behavior of Ti-6Al-4V produced by additive manufacturing processes is assessed based on a formulation developed from the Kocks-Mecking relationship. A constitutive parameter derived for the microstructure is characteristic of the work hardening behavior determined by the plastic strain between the proportional limit and the strength at the instability point. The varied plasticity behavior associated with surface and build direction effects can be evaluated with this approach as presented for the case of Ti-6Al-4V under uniaxial tension.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Strategy to Integrate Probabilistic Risk Assessment into Design and Development Processes for Aerospace Based pon Mars Exploration Rover Experiences

This paper will discuss the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) effort and its involvement with related activities during the development of the Mars Exploration Rover (MER). The Rovers were launched 2003.June.10 (Spirit) and 2003.July.7 (Opportunity), and both have proven very successful. Although designed for a 90-day mission, the Rovers have been operating for over two earth years. This paper will review aspects of how the MER project integrated PRA into the design and development process. A companion paper (Development of the Mars Exploration Rover PRA) will describe the MER PRA and design changes from those results.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)↗

The experience factory: Can it make you a 5? or what is its relationship to other quality and improvement concepts?

The concepts of quality improvements have permeated many businesses. It is clear that the nineties will be the quality era for software and there is a growing need to develop or adapt quality improvement approaches to the software business. Thus we must understand software as an artifact and software as a business. Since the business we are dealing with is software, we must understand the nature of software and software development. The software discipline is evolutionary and experimental; it is a laboratory science. Software is development not production. The technologies of the discipline are human based. There is a lack of models that allow us to reason about the process and the product. All software is not the same; process is a variable, goals are variable, etc. Packaged, reusable, experiences require additional resources in the form of organization, processes, people, etc. There have been a variety of organizational frameworks proposed to improve quality for various businesses. The ones discussed in this presentation include: Plan-Do-Check-Act, a quality improvement process based upon a feedback cycle for optimizing a single process model/production line; the Experience Factory/Quality Improvement Paradigm, continuous improvements through the experimentation, packaging, and reuse of experiences based upon a business's needs; Total Quality Management, a management approach to long term success through customer satisfaction based on the participation of all members of an organization; the SEI capability maturity model, a staged process improvement based upon assessment with regard to a set of key process areas until you reach a level 5 which represents a continuous process improvement; and Lean (software) Development, a principle supporting the concentration of the production on 'value added' activities and the elimination of reduction of 'not value added' activities.

Basili, Victor R.↗

Assessment of Edge-Based Viscous Method for Corner-Flow Solutions on Graphics Processing Units

A highly efficient, edge-based viscous (EBV) discretization method has been recently implemented in a practical, unstructured-grid, node-centered, finite-volume flow solver and evaluated for Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) formulations. In comparison to a well-established cell-based viscous (CBV) method, the EBV method has demonstrated multifold acceleration of all viscous-kernel computations on general unstructured mixed-element grids. The viscous kernels include evaluation of viscous fluxes, diffusion terms in turbulence models, and the corresponding Jacobian terms. In this paper, an EBV implementation of a nonlinear extension of the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model, SA-neg-QCR2000, is presented and verified. The SA-neg-QCR2000 model is used for simulating turbulent corner flows. Previously reported EBV computations have been conducted on traditional computing architectures based on central processing units (CPU). This paper assesses benefits of the EBV method on modern high-performance computing architectures based on graphics processing units (GPU). The GPU implementations of the CBV and EBV methods are verified by comparing solutions and iterative convergence with those observed in CPU computations on the same grids. A comprehensive assessment of the EBV speedup on CPU and GPU architectures is presented for established benchmark corner flows, namely, a supersonic flow through a long square duct and a subsonic flow around a NASA juncture flow model.

CFD↗

Assessment of Edge-Based Viscous Method for Corner-Flow Solutions on Graphics Processing Units

A highly efficient, edge-based viscous (EBV) discretization method has been recently implemented in a practical, unstructured-grid, node-centered, finite-volume flow solver and evaluated for Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) formulations. In comparison to a well-established cell-based viscous (CBV) method, the EBV method has demonstrated multifold acceleration of all viscous-kernel computations on general unstructured mixed-element grids. The viscous kernels include evaluation of viscous fluxes, diffusion terms in turbulence models, and the corresponding Jacobian terms. In this paper, an EBV implementation of a nonlinear extension of the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model, SA-neg-QCR2000, is presented and verified. The SA-neg-QCR2000 model is used for simulating turbulent corner flows. Previously reported EBV computations have been conducted on traditional computing architectures based on central processing units (CPU). This paper assesses benefits of the EBV method on modern high-performance computing architectures based on graphics processing units (GPU). The GPU implementations of the CBV and EBV methods are verified by comparing solutions and iterative convergence with those observed in CPU computations on the same grids. A comprehensive assessment of the EBV speedup on CPU and GPU architectures is presented for established benchmark corner flows, namely, a supersonic flow through a long square duct and a subsonic flow around a NASA juncture flow model.

CFD↗

A unified process for systems identification based on performance assessment

Many modern spacecraft are complex multi-body dynamic systems where the bodies are connected by several active control systems for pointing and isolation. Mission requirements indicate that many structural modes and possibly some nonlinear effects will require characterization. Thus, even characterization at the subsystem level will become more difficult than usual. System level characterization difficulties will be compounded by the fact that only limited ground testing will be possible on the full up system, and flight testing will be restricted by an extremely limited measurements set. The object of the present discussion is the application of matrix majorant theory to the problem of assessing dynamic system performance when knowledge of the system is uncertain. We show how majorants provide an effective tool to relate required performance output to system identification test quality in terms of residual uncertainty in input-output relations, parameter values, nonlinearities, and interactions. The underlying machinery consists of the block-norm matrix which is a nonnegative matrix each of whose elements is the norm of a block of a suitably partitioned matrix. A matrix which bounds the block-norm matrix in the sense of nonnegative matrices, i.e., element by element is known as a majorant.

Hyland, C.↗

Measurement Acceptance Region (MAR) Assessment Results Based On Sludge Batch 10 Projections from December 2021, February 2022 and August 2022

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) is currently preparing to initiate processing of Sludge Batch 10 (SB10), which is comprised of material from Tanks 11H, 13H, 15H, and 26F, Alternate Feed Stock-2 and Sodium Reactor Experiment material from H-Canyon. Frit 473 (8B 2 O 3 -8Li 2 O-5Na 2 O-79SiO 2 , in weight percent) was recommended for sludge-only (SO) and coupled processing with the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) based on previous assessments of SB10 projections with the DWPF Product Composition Control System (PCCS) glass property models and their associated Measurement Acceptance Region (MAR) constraints. Due to the lower processing rate of Sludge Batch 9 (SB9), the heel in Tank 40 is anticipated to be greater than 40 inches at the projected start of SB10 processing to meet the upcoming Accelerated Basin Deinventory addition dates in Tank 51 for Sludge Batch 11. In December 2021 and February 2022, Savannah River Remediation System Planning provided updated SB10 Tank 40 blend projections based on heels of 74 inches, 84 inches, 94 inches and 103.4 inches. Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC) subsequently pursued Wash Cycle Y to further reduce the total sulfur in the sludge batch and increase processing flexibility at DWPF. In August 2022, SRMC System Planning provided an updated SB10 Tank 40 blend projection with a 76 inch-heel representing Decant Y2 and 60 kilogallons of bearing water inleakage that is anticipated during the Tank 51 to Tank 40 transfer. The objectives of this task were to: • Determine the impact on the operating windows for SO and coupled processing • Determine whether any composition gaps exist between the already completed SB10 variability study and the reprojected SB10 glass composition region • Compare the SB10 reprojected glass composition region to the DWPF PCCS model development and validation ranges to ensure that compositional gaps do not exist between the data sets. This report documents the results of these evaluations. Calculation-based frit assessments were performed using the DWPF PCCS glass property models and their associated MAR constraints. Evaluated parameters for coupled processing included the following transfer volumes per Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank batch: 5700 gallons of Tank 40 sludge, 2400-4500 gallons of the SWPF monosodium titanate (MST) and sludge solids stream, and 15,000 gallons of strip effluent. Based on these MAR assessment results, Frit 473 remains viable for SB10 processing. A target waste loading (WL) of 36% is possible for SO operation and single strike (0.4 g/L MST) coupled processing up to 600 mg/L of SB9 insoluble sludge solids at a nominal transfer volume of ~2800 gallons. Increasing the single strike transfer volume to 4500 gallons may reduce the maximum WL below 40%. Operating windows are 12 percentage points for SO processing and 14-16 percentage points for coupled processing. Frit 625 allows for a target WL of 36% and is acceptable for use during the SB9 to SB10 transition to deplete remaining inventory as needed. Operating windows are 8 percentage points for SO processing and 12-14 percentage points for coupled processing. Predictive PCCS evaluations performed at DWPF will provide insight into batch-specific acceptability at desired WLs for compositions having expected oxide ratios during processing versus the extreme vertices (corner points) evaluated in this study. The reprojected SB10 glass composition region generally overlaps the previously evaluated SB10 variability study composition region. Thus, the minor composition shift of these updated SB10 projections indicates that no additional glasses are necessary to demonstrate acceptability relative to the chemical durability of the Environmental Assessment benchmark glass and predictability using the current PCCS models for durability. Based on a comparison of the PCCS model development and validation data to the reprojected SB10 glass composition region, the viscosity and liquidus temperature models will reliably predict SB10 compositions. No additional glasses are necessary to demonstrate predictability of these models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Measurement Acceptance Region (MAR) Assessment Results Based on Confirmation Sample Sludge Batch 10 Projections

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) is currently preparing to initiate processing of Sludge Batch 10 (SB10), which is comprised of material from Tanks 11H, 13H, 15H, 26F, 40H (heel only), and Alternate Feed Stock-2 and Sodium Reactor Experiment material from H-Canyon. Frit 473 was recommended for sludge-only (SO) and coupled processing with the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) based on previous assessments of SB10 projections with the DWPF Product Composition Control System (PCCS) glass property models and their associated Measurement Acceptance Region (MAR) constraints. Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC) subsequently pursued Wash Cycle Y to further reduce the total sulfur in the sludge batch and increase processing flexibility at DWPF. In October 2022, SRMC System Planning provided an updated SB10 Tank 40H blend baseline projection based on the Tank 51 confirmation sample results. Due to the reduced Na concentration relative to previous SB10 projections, two additional projections based on the addition of 7,000 gallons of caustic were provided in November 2022.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗