SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Probability and statistics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Review of Particle Physics

The Review summarizes much of particle physics and cosmology. Using data from previous editions, plus 3,200 new measurements from 903 papers, we list, evaluate, and average measured properties of gauge bosons and the recently discovered Higgs boson, leptons, quarks, mesons, and baryons. We summarize searches for hypothetical particles such as supersymmetric particles, heavy bosons, axions, dark photons, etc. Particle properties and search limits are listed in Summary Tables. We give numerous tables, figures, formulae, and reviews of topics such as Higgs Boson Physics, Supersymmetry, Grand Unified Theories, Neutrino Mixing, Dark Energy, Dark Matter, Cosmology, Particle Detectors, Colliders, Probability and Statistics. Most of the 118 reviews are updated, including many that are heavily revised.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Review of Particle Physics - Scalar Mesons below 1 GeV

The summarizes much of particle physics and cosmology. Using data from previous editions, plus 2,717 new measurements from 869 papers, we list, evaluate, and average measured properties of gauge bosons and the recently discovered Higgs boson, leptons, quarks, mesons, and baryons. We summarize searches for hypothetical particles such as supersymmetric particles, heavy bosons, axions, dark photons, etc. Particle properties and search limits are listed in Summary Tables. We give numerous tables, figures, formulae, and reviews of topics such as Higgs Boson Physics, Supersymmetry, Grand Unified Theories, Neutrino Mixing, Dark Energy, Dark Matter, Cosmology, Particle Detectors, Colliders, Probability and Statistics. Most of the 120 reviews are updated, including many that are heavily revised. The is divided into two volumes. Volume 1 includes the Summary Tables and 97 review articles. Volume 2 consists of the Particle Listings and contains also 23 reviews that address specific aspects of the data presented in the Listings. The complete (both volumes) is published online on the website of the Particle Data Group () and in a journal. Volume 1 is available in print as the . A with the Summary Tables and essential tables, figures, and equations from selected review articles is available in print, as a web version optimized for use on phones, and as an Android app. The 2024 edition of the Review of Particle Physics should be cited as: S. Navas et al. (Particle Data Group), Phys. Rev. D 110, 030001 (2024)© 20242024

Navas, S. [Universidad de Granada]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reference Site Condition Datasets for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States

Floating offshore wind farm design is highly site-specific, requiring detailed information about the specific conditions of a project area for realistic design studies. Unfortunately, publicly available site condition data for potential floating offshore wind project sites in the United States is scarce. To support U.S. offshore wind research, we developed reference site condition datasets, including metocean and seabed information, for four potential floating wind project areas in the U.S.: Humboldt Bay, Morro Bay, the Gulf of Maine, and the Gulf of Mexico. These datasets were compiled using publicly available data. Our metocean analysis, covering wind, waves, and surface currents, utilized measurement data from 2000 to 2020. Sources included the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s National Offshore Wind Dataset for wind data, National Data Buoy Center buoys for wave data, and the High Frequency Radar Network for surface currents. These data were integrated into hourly time series used to compute extreme return periods up to 500 years, monthly statistics, and joint probability clusters for fatigue analysis. Soil conditions were evaluated using the usSEABED database and bathymetry grids were interpolated from the NCEI Digital Elevation Model Global Mosaic. Further information on the datasets and how they were created can be found in: Biglu, M., M. Hall, E. Lozon, S. Housner. 2024. Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). NREL/TP-5000-89897. The data are also available at: https://github.com/FloatingArrayDesign/SiteConditions The content of each dataset is as follows: _NOW23_wind.txt: Hourly NOW-23 wind data up to a height of 400 meter. _metocean_1hr.txt: Hourly time series including wind, wave, surface current and temperature data. _Summary.xlsx: Metocean data, including extreme values, joint probability distributions and monthly statistics. _usSEABED_soil.csv: Extract of the usSEABED database for this specific site. _bathymetry_200m.txt (and 500m, 1000m): Gridded seabed depth data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

A comparative analysis of YOLOv8 and U-Net image segmentation approaches for transmission electron micrographs of polycrystalline thin films

Metallic thin films offer a platform to experimentally study the dynamics of microstructural evolution, but the required transmission electron microscopy (TEM)-based imaging generates complex images that are challenging to segment and quantify. This work provides a comparative analysis of a new YOLOv8 model and an established U-Net model for bright-field TEM images of polycrystals, employing a framework leveraging physical observables to evaluate performance against two hand-traced benchmark datasets. This methodology obviates the comparison of large, diversely structured, and manually labeled datasets that are required to assess performance on a per-image/per-pixel basis. It is found that the YOLOv8 model, adapted for real-time instance segmentation, has up to 43× faster inferencing (NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4090) compared to U-Net and reconstructs hand-traced grain size distributions (GSDs) with excellent fidelity, finding mean diameter within 3% for grains near an optimal magnification; for grains that deviate from the optimal pixel-diameter, the size of small- (large)-diameter grains is systematically over- (under)-estimated. This is partially mitigated by including scale-aware augmentations during training. Moreover, when the bias is corrected post-inference by a rigid shift in distribution, the YOLOv8 model reproduces ground truth GSDs with exceptional fidelity, with statistical tests indicating <5% probability that the distributions are distinct. Based on ground truth data, calibration curves pertaining to this shift can be constructed for a given model. This issue is not present in the U-Net model’s results, indicating that for quantitative measurements where the true size of objects is of interest, special procedures must be implemented for YOLO-based models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for the Optimization of Water Treatment Processes Under Uncertainty Assessed through Process Operability

Conference presentation conveying work conducted on developing a framework for the optimization of water treatment processes after applying robust optimization and process operability tools. The objective of this framework is to optimize treatment processes under the uncertainty of source water conditions. This work contributes to robust optimization and process operability methodologies, allowing for the extension of probability from statistical models to operability calculations.

Barber, Hunter↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Error Bounds for Low-Rank Tensor Decompositions Used in Large-Scale Data Analysis Applications (LDRD Final Report)

This report documents a research project on analyzing low-rank tensor models for data analysis that took place at Sandia National Laboratories from October 2023–September 2025. The focus of this work was to extend theoretical frameworks from statistics and probability theory for use with models for scalar, vector, and matrix data to models with tensor, or general multi-dimensional array, data. Through this work, we have provided a new set of tools for bounding errors on low-rank tensor models of both complete and sampled data. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In Section 1, we describe the proposed work at the start of the project. Section 2 describes the research advances made as part of the project. Other research contributions in the form of conference presentations and software development is provided in Section 3. Workforce development at Sandia and Florida Atlantic University (via a subcontract on this project) is provided in Section 4.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

V-HAMSTeR v1.0.0

V-HAMSTeR is a bioinformatics software tool designed to predict the hosts of viruses directly from genomic sequences. It can be used by researchers to predict animal, prokaryotic, plant, protist or fungal viral hosts including viruses that may be fragmented or discovered in environmental metagenomic datasets. Features & Uses: The software employs a novel dual-stream deep learning architecture that dynamically fuses implicit sequence embeddings from a genomic foundation model with 13 explicit, handcrafted biological features (e.g., coding density and strand switch rates). To ensure maximum reliability, V=HAMSTeR deploys a 5-fold deep ensemble calibrated via Joint Temperature Scaling, providing users with statistically rigorous confidence probabilities. It also features an automated sequence chunking and mean-pooling module to seamlessly process variable-length contigs. Advantages Over Similar Technologies: Existing tools (e.g., IPEV, RNAVirHost) typically rely on either basic k-mers or isolated neural networks. V-HAMSTeR's hybrid architecture captures both broad genomic context and specific biological motifs that standalone foundation models often miss. Furthermore, unlike competitor tools that struggle with incomplete data or exhibit extreme overconfidence, V-HAMSTeR is explicitly benchmarked and mathematically calibrated for fragmented assemblies (1kb–10kb). This makes it uniquely robust, accurate, and trustworthy for the messy reality of real-world environmental viromics.

Grigson, Susie [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rare events and Griffiths phases in topological quantum error correction

The performance of quantum error correcting (QEC) codes is often studied under the assumption of spatiotemporally uniform error rates. On the other hand, experimental implementations almost always produce heterogeneous error rates, in either space or time, as a result of effects such as imperfect fabrication and/or cosmic rays. It is therefore important to understand if and how their presence can affect the performance of QEC in qualitative ways. Here, in this work, we study the effects of nonuniform error rates in the representative examples of the 1D repetition code and the 2D toric code, focusing on when they have extended spatiotemporal correlations; these may arise, for instance, from rare events (such as cosmic rays) that temporarily elevate error rates over the entire code patch. These effects can be described in the corresponding statistical mechanics models for decoding, where long-range correlations in the error rates lead to extended rare regions of weaker coupling. For the 1D repetition code where the rare regions are linear, we find two distinct decodable phases: a conventional ordered phase in which logical failure rates decay exponentially with the code distance, and a rare-region dominated Griffiths phase in which failure rates are parametrically larger and decay as a stretched exponential. In particular, the latter phase is present when the error rates in the rare regions are above the bulk threshold. For the 2D toric code where the rare regions are planar, we find no decodable Griffiths phase: rare events which boost error rates above the bulk threshold lead to an asymptotic loss of threshold and failure to decode. Unpacking the failure mechanism implies that techniques for suppressing extended sequences of repeated rare events (which, without intervention, will be statistically present with high probability) will be crucial for QEC with the toric code.

classical statistical mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transient anisotropic kernel for probabilistic learning on manifolds

PLoM (Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds) is a method introduced in 2016 for handling small training datasets by projecting an Itô equation from a stochastic dissipative Hamiltonian dynamical system, acting as the MCMC generator, for which the KDE-estimated probability measure with the training dataset is the invariant measure. PLoM performs a projection on a reduced-order vector basis related to the training dataset, using the diffusion maps (DMAPS) basis constructed with a time-independent isotropic kernel. In this paper, we propose a new ISDE projection vector basis built from a transient anisotropic kernel, providing an alternative to the DMAPS basis to improve statistical surrogates for stochastic manifolds with heterogeneous data. The construction ensures that for times near the initial time, the DMAPS basis coincides with the transient basis. For larger times, the differences between the two bases are characterized by the angle of their spanned vector subspaces. The optimal instant yielding the optimal transient basis is determined using an estimation of mutual information from Information Theory, which is normalized by the entropy estimation to account for the effects of the number of realizations used in the estimations. Consequently, this new vector basis better represents statistical dependencies in the learned probability measure for any dimension. Three applications with varying levels of statistical complexity and data heterogeneity validate the proposed theory, showing that the transient anisotropic kernel improves the learned probability measure.

Diffusion maps↗

DOE OSTI2025

TPCpp-10M: Simulated proton-proton collisions in a time projection chamber for AI foundation models

Scientific foundation models hold great promise for advancing nuclear and particle physics by improving analysis precision and accelerating discovery. Yet, progress in this field is often limited by the lack of openly available large scale datasets, as well as standardized evaluation tasks and metrics. Furthermore, the specialized knowledge and software typically required to process particle physics data pose significant barriers to interdisciplinary collaboration with the broader machine learning community. This work introduces a large, openly accessible dataset of 10 million simulated proton-proton collisions, designed to support self-supervised training of foundation models. To facilitate ease of use, the dataset is provided in a common NumPy format. In addition, it includes 70,000 labeled examples spanning three well defined downstream tasks: track finding, particle identification, and noise tagging, to enable systematic evaluation of the foundation model's adaptability. The simulated data are generated using the Pythia Monte Carlo event generator at a center of mass energy of $\sqrt{s}$ = 200 GeV and processed with Geant4 to include realistic detector conditions and signal emulation in the sPHENIX Time Projection Chamber at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider, located at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This dataset resource establishes a common ground for interdisciplinary research, enabling machine learning scientists and physicists alike to explore scaling behaviors, assess transferability, and accelerate progress toward foundation models in nuclear and high energy physics. The complete simulation and reconstruction chain is reproducible with the sPHENIX software stack. All data and code locations are provided under Data Accessibility.

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

A comparison of probabilistic generative frameworks for molecular simulations

Generative artificial intelligence is now a widely used tool in molecular science. Despite the popularity of probabilistic generative models, numerical experiments benchmarking their performance on molecular data are lacking. Here, in this work, we introduce and explain several classes of generative models, broadly sorted into two categories: flow-based models and diffusion models. We select three representative models: neural spline flows, conditional flow matching, and denoising diffusion probabilistic models, and examine their accuracy, computational cost, and generation speed across datasets with tunable dimensionality, complexity, and modal asymmetry. Our findings are varied, with no one framework being the best for all purposes. In a nutshell, (i) neural spline flows do best at capturing mode asymmetry present in low-dimensional data, (ii) conditional flow matching outperforms other models for high-dimensional data with low complexity, and (iii) denoising diffusion probabilistic models appear the best for low-dimensional data with high complexity. Our datasets include a Gaussian mixture model and the dihedral torsion angle distribution of the Aib9 peptide, generated via a molecular dynamics simulation. We hope our taxonomy of probabilistic generative frameworks and numerical results may guide model selection for a wide range of molecular tasks.

Artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid neural architecture: Online attosecond x-ray characterization

The emergence of high-repetition-rate x-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs), such as SLAC’s LCLS-II, serves as our canonical example for autonomous controls that necessitate high-throughput diagnostics paired with streaming computational pipelines capable of single-shot analysis with extremely low latency. We present the deterministic characterization with an integrated parallelizable hybrid resolver architecture, a hybrid machine learning framework designed for fast, accurate analysis of XFEL diagnostics using angular streaking-based sinogram images. This architecture integrates convolutional neural networks and bidirectional long short-term memory models to denoise input, identify x-ray sub-spike features, and extract sub-spike relative delays with sub-30 attosecond temporal resolution. Deployed on low-latency hardware, it achieves over 10 kHz throughput with 168.3 μs inference latency, indicating scalability to 14 kHz with field-programmable gate array integration. By transforming regression tasks into classification problems and leveraging optimized error encoding, we achieve high precision with low-latency performance that is critical for real-time streaming event selection and experimental control feedback signals. This represents a key development in real-time control pipelines for next-generation autonomous science, generally, and high repetition-rate x-ray experiments in particular.

Accelerator Physics (physics.acc-ph)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predictive models of the genetic bases underlying budding yeast fitness in multiple environments

Abstract The ability of organisms to adapt and survive depends on the effects of genes and the environment on fitness. However, the multigenic nature of fitness and genotype-by-environment interactions hinder our understanding of the genetic basis of fitness. Here, we established fitness prediction models for 35 environments using machine learning and existing fitness data and different genetic variant types for a Saccharomyces cerevisiae population. Models revealed that the predictive ability of genetic variants varied across environments, with copy number variants explaining the majority of fitness variation in most cases. Model interpretation showed that different variant types identified distinct gene sets associated with predictive variants. These gene sets were significantly enriched in experimentally validated genes affecting fitness in only a subset of environments, indicating that many genes influencing fitness remain unexplored. Notably, non-experimentally validated genes were more important than validated ones for fitness predictions. Gene contributions to predictions were both isolate- and environment-dependent, pointing to gene-by-gene and gene-by-environment interactions. Furthermore, models uncovered experimentally validated and novel candidate genetic interactions for a well-characterized stress, the fungicide benomyl. These findings highlight the feasibility of identifying the genetic basis of fitness by using different genetic variant types and offer novel targets for future functional analysis.

DNA copy number variations↗

DOE OSTI2025

Algorithm to extract direction in 2D discrete distributions and a continuous Frobenius norm

In this study, we present a novel algorithm for determining directionality in 2D distributions of discrete data. We compare a reference dataset with a known direction to a measured dataset with an unknown direction by the Frobenius norm of the difference (FND) to find the unknown direction. To generalize this concept, we develop a continuous Frobenius norm of the difference (CFND) as a continuous analog of the FND and derive its analytical expression. By relating fitted and normalized 2D Gaussian distributions, we show that the CFND approximates the FND, and we validate this relationship with computer simulations. We find that a first-order approximation of the CFND between two similar Gaussian distributions takes the form of an absolute sine function, offering a simple analytical form with potential for specialized applications in segmented inverse beta decay (IBD) neutrino detectors, astronomy, machine learning, and more. Although this method may easily extend to 3D scalar fields, our focus here is on 2D real-valued fields as it directly applies to directionality. Our methodology consists of modeling a 2D Gaussian distribution, binning the data into a histogram, and encoding it as a square matrix. Rotating this matrix around its geometric center and comparing it to a measured dataset using the FND gives us rotational data that we fit with an absolute sine function. The location of the minimum of this fit is the angle closest to the true angle of the direction in the measured dataset. We present the derivation and discuss initial applications of the CFND in our novel algorithm, demonstrating its success in approximating directionality in 2D distributions.

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deriving the Landauer Principle From the Quantum Shannon Entropy

We derive an expression to determine the equilibrium probability distribution of a quantum state in contact with a noisy thermal environment that formally separates contributions from quantum and classical forms of probabilistic uncertainty. A statistical mechanical interpretation of this probability distribution enables us to derive an expression for the minimum free energy costs for arbitrary (reversible or irreversible) quantum state changes. In conclusion, based on this derivation, we demonstrate that–in contrast to classical systems–the free energy required to erase or reset a qubit depends sensitively on both the fidelity of the target state and on the physical properties of the environment, such as the number of quantum bath states, due primarily to the entropic effects of system-bath entanglement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Hazard Assessment for Tornadoes, Straight-Line Wind, and Extreme Precipitation at the Savannah River Site

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities – tornadoes, straight-line winds, and heavy precipitation – are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate the occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 2013 by Werth et al. (W2013) are given. Using tornado statistics for i) the combined states of Georgia and South Carolina, and ii) a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS, we calculated the probability per year of any location at SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probability that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 7.04E-4 (1 chance in 1420) per year and tornadic wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years (corresponding to wind design category 3 (WDC-3), and 125,000 years (meeting WDC-4) (USDOE, 2016) were estimated to be 132 mph and 147 mph, respectively. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years and 173 mph every 125,000 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS and the SRS evaluation used the same basic model (Ramsdell and Rishel, 2007), the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight-line wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a GEV1 distribution and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight-line winds of 117 mph every 2500 years (the required WDC-3 standard) and 125 mph every 6250 years (WDC-4) at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the ANS-2.3-2011 report, which has wind speeds of 125mph and 133 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation, we compared the fits of two different theoretical extreme-value distributions and applied the one that fit the data best for each of several accumulation periods. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 10,000 years (corresponding to precipitation design category 3 (PDC-3) and 25,000 years (PDC-4) were estimated as 9.1 inches and 10.1 inches, respectively. For the 24-hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 12.02 inches and 13.17 inches, respectively, higher than comparable values provided in the W2013 report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamics and its prediction and CALPHAD modeling: Review, state of the art, and perspectives

Thermodynamics is a science concerning the state of a system, whether it is stable, metastable, or unstable, when interacting with its surroundings. The combined law of thermodynamics derived by Gibbs about 150 years ago laid the foundation of thermodynamics. In Gibbs combined law, the entropy production due to internal processes was not included, and the 2nd law was thus practically removed from the Gibbs combined law, so it is only applicable to systems under equilibrium, thus commonly termed as equilibrium or Gibbs thermodynamics. Gibbs further derived the classical statistical thermodynamics in terms of the probability of configurations in a system in the later 1800's and early 1900's. With the quantum mechanics (QM) developed in 1920's, the QM-based statistical thermodynamics was established and connected to classical statistical thermodynamics at the classical limit as shown by Landau in the 1940's. In 1960's the development of density functional theory (DFT) by Kohn and co-workers enabled the QM prediction of properties of the ground state of a system. On the other hand, the entropy production due to internal processes in non-equilibrium systems was studied separately by Onsager in 1930's and Prigogine and co-workers in the 1950's. In 1960's to 1970's the digitization of thermodynamics was developed by Kaufman in the framework of the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling of individual phases with internal degrees of freedom. CALPHAD modeling of thermodynamics and atomic transport properties has enabled computational design of complex materials in the last 50 years. Our recently termed zentropy theory integrates DFT and statistical mechanics through the replacement of the internal energy of each individual configuration by its DFT-predicted free energy. The zentropy theory is capable of accurately predicting the free energy of individual phases, transition temperatures and properties of magnetic and ferroelectric materials with free energies of individual configurations solely from DFT-based calculations and without fitting parameters, and is being tested for other phenomena including superconductivity, quantum criticality, and black holes. Those predictions include the singularity at critical points with divergence of physical properties, negative thermal expansion, and the strongly correlated physics. Furthermore, those individual configurations may thus be considered as the genomic building blocks of individual phases in the spirit of the materials genome®. This has the potential to shift the paradigm of CALPHAD modeling from being heavily dependent on experimental inputs to becoming fully predictive with inputs solely from DFT-based calculations and machine learning models built on those calculations and existing experimental data through newly developed and future open-source tools. Furthermore, through the combined law of thermodynamics including the internal entropy production, it is shown that the kinetic coefficient matrix of independent internal processes is diagonal with respect to the conjugate potentials in the combined law, and the cross phenomena that the phenomenological Onsager flux and reciprocal relationships are due to the dependence of the conjugate potential of a molar quantity on nonconjugate molar quantities and other potentials, which can be predicted by the zentropy theory and CALPHAD modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗