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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Developing Component-Specific Prior Distributions for Common Cause Failure Alpha Factors

This report presents the development of component-specific common cause failure (CCF) prior distributions for five component categories: pump, valve, strainer, generator, and other. For ease in comparing these component-specific CCF priors with the 2015 generic CCF priors, the same method used to develop the 2015 generic CCF priors was also employed in this report, along with the same set of failure data (1997–2015) featured in INL/EXT-21-43723. For selected CCF templates, this report also evaluates the effects of applying component-specific priors to CCF parameters.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Causal CCF Parameter Estimations 2020

This report documents the quantitative results of the causal common-cause failure (CCF) parameter estimations for the failure cause groups “component,” “design,” “environment,” “human,” and “other,” based on CCF data through 2020 in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CCF database: https://rads.inl.gov/Pages/CCF.aspx. This report utilizes the same data period (2006–2020) and CCF templates as INL/EXT-21-62940, Revision 1, CCF Parameter Estimations, 2020 Update. The 2015 causal CCF prior distributions for the specific failure cause groups (instead of the 2015 generic CCF prior distributions) were used in this report to estimate the associated causal CCF parameters. All the 2015 causal CCF prior distributions and generic CCF prior distributions were developed in INL/EXT-21-43723, Developing Generic Prior Distributions for Common Cause Failure Alpha Factors and Causal Alpha Factors, using CCF data from 1997 to 2015. These quantitative results were developed to support the causal alpha factor model and should be used as appropriate in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies such as the NRC Significance Determination Process for commercial nuclear power plants in the United States.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demonstration of machine-learning-enhanced Bayesian quantum state estimation

Machine learning (ML) has found broad applicability in quantum information science in topics as diverse as experimental design, state classification, and even studies on quantum foundations. Here, we experimentally realize an approach for defining custom prior distributions that are automatically tuned using ML for Bayesian quantum state estimation methods that generally better conform to the physical properties of the underlying system than standard fixed prior distributions. Previously, researchers have looked to Bayesian quantum state tomography for advantages like uncertainty quantification, the return of reliable estimates under any measurement condition, and minimal mean-squared error. However, practical challenges related to long computation times and conceptual issues concerning how to incorporate prior knowledge most suitably can overshadow these benefits. Using both simulated and experimental measurement results, we demonstrate that ML-defined prior distributions reduce net convergence times and provide a natural way to incorporate both implicit and explicit information directly into the prior distribution. These results constitute a promising path toward practical implementations of Bayesian quantum state tomography.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1975

Bayesian estimation - A sensitivity analysis

The robustness of the assigned prior distribution in a Bayesian estimation problem is examined. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic intensity parameter of a Poisson distribution is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by assuming the existence of a true prior which is different in form from that of the assigned prior distribution. By using mean-squared error as a measure of performance, the ensuing Bayes decision function is compared to the corresponding minimum variance unbiased estimator. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator is largely robust to deviations from the assigned prior and remains squared-error superior to the MVU type within a broad region.

Canavos, G. C.↗

NASA NTRS1974

On the robustness of a Bayes estimate

This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.

Canavos, G. C.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Li-Ion Battery Capacity Fade Using Early-Life Data and a Hybrid Data-Driven Gaussian Process-Bayesian Regression Approach

Accurately predicting Li-ion battery capacity trajectories using early-life data can dramatically improve battery-life understandings and be used to rapidly evaluate design/cost/performance trade-offs when developing new battery materials. Accurate early-life predictions enable researchers to quickly iterate over cell designs and material precursor properties without consistently cycling cells to failure. To this end, we present a toolbox that uses a combined Gaussian Process and Bayesian regression approach that capitalizes on signals other than just capacity (e.g., dQ/dV, voltage drops) to rapidly predict capacity-fade trajectories. The prediction tool uses Bayesian regression to fit functional forms, e.g., power law, sigmoids, etc., to predict capacity-fade dynamics. By fitting functional forms, the capacity fade can be interrogated at any point in the future, allowing for early cell-failure prediction. Additionally, Bayesian regression allows for accurate uncertainty estimates that account for cell-to-cell variability (aleatoric uncertainty) and the lack of observation data (epistemic uncertainty). By only using early cycle data to predict the capacity fade trajectory, uncertainty bounds at end-of-life can be extremely large. The large uncertainty bounds are further exacerbated because there is no systematic way to define the prior distribution of the functional forms' parameters. We improve our the predicted trajectory confidence interval of our predicted trajectory using two methods. First, we shows that a small amount of held-out cycling data is sufficientuse some train cells, that have been cycled to failure to derive information regarding the appropriate prior distributions for the functional forms' parameters of the functional form, effectively leading to data-driven priors.. We propose constructing the data-driven priors by first running a Bayesian regression starting with uninformed priors to generate intermediate cell-specific posterior parameter distributions. These posterior distributions are combined using a Ggaussian mixture model for each parameter to create the data-driven priors. These mixture models serve as the data-driven prior distributions for the parameters for. Second, we derive multiple features, e.g., C_dchg 0.5 DoD 0.5, log (|mean(dQ/dV_(w_3-w_0 ) (V)|), etc., from the train cellsheld-out cycling data, identify which the features are that best predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles, and then create Ggaussian process regression models that are used for predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles for the test cells (see blue dots with error bars in Fig 1b). Finally, these predicted data-points are used in addition to the actual early cycle data capacity fade to construct the Bayesian regression trajectory for the test cell s. Notably. We note that these two methods are complementary and can be combined with each other. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on an testing open-source dataset from Iowa State University and Iowa Lakes Community College (ISU-ILCC). This dataset comprises of 251 nickel-manganese-cobalt/graphite Lithium-ion cells that are cycled under 63 different conditions. We compute the mean average percentage error (MAPE) and negative log predictive density (NLPD) to quantify the efficacy of our method. Our initial findings suggest that, when only few observations are available, for test cells, when using only Bayesian regression with uninformed priors, a power law functional provides the most accurate predictions. with very few data points. However, asHowever, a the number of data points increases, a twin sigmoidal function becomes more accurate as the number of observations further increases. We also find that using as little as 10% of the data set towards generating data-driven priors can lead to significant improvement in prediction accuracy when using early cycle data. Lastly, we found that augmenting early-cycle data with Gaussian process-predicted capacity data for Bayesian regression greatly improves the prediction accuracy. We will present a comprehensive comparison of our methods to other methods available in the literature and apply this method to additional battery datasets.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2015

Data Applicability of Heritage and New Hardware For Launch Vehicle Reliability Models

Bayesian reliability requires the development of a prior distribution to represent degree of belief about the value of a parameter (such as a component's failure rate) before system specific data become available from testing or operations. Generic failure data are often provided in reliability databases as point estimates (mean or median). A component's failure rate is considered a random variable where all possible values are represented by a probability distribution. The applicability of the generic data source is a significant source of uncertainty that affects the spread of the distribution. This presentation discusses heuristic guidelines for quantifying uncertainty due to generic data applicability when developing prior distributions mainly from reliability predictions.

Al Hassan, Mohammad↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian quantum state reconstruction with a learning-based tuned prior

We demonstrate machine-learning-enhanced Bayesian quantum state tomography on near-term intermediate-scale quantum hardware. Our approach to selecting prior distributions leverages pre-trained neural networks incorporating measurement data and enables improved inference times over standard prior distributions.

Regmi, Sangita↗

DOE OSTI2024

Magnetic dipole γ-ray strength functions in the crossover from spherical to deformed neodymium isotopes

We calculate the magnetic dipole $\gamma$-ray strength functions in a chain of even-mass neodymium isotopes $^{144-152}$Nd in the framework of the configuration-interaction (CI) shell model. We infer the strength function by applying the maximum entropy method (MEM) to the exact imaginary-time response function calculated with the shell-model Monte Carlo (SMMC) method. The success of the MEM depends on the choice of a good strength function as a prior distribution. We investigate two choices for the prior strength function: the static path approximation (SPA) and the quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA). We find that the QRPA is a better approximation at low temperatures (i.e., near the ground state), while the SPA is a better choice at finite temperatures. We identify a low-energy enhancement (LEE) in the MEM deexcitation $M1$ strength functions of the even-mass neodymium isotopes and compare with recent experimental results for the total deexcitation $\gamma$-ray strength functions. The LEE is already seen in the SPA strength function but not in the QRPA strength function, indicating the importance of large-amplitude static fluctuations around the mean field in reproducing the LEE. Our method is currently the only one which can reproduce LEE in heavy open-shell nuclei where conventional CI shell model calculations are prohibited. With the onset of deformation as number of neutrons increases along the chain of neodymium isotopes, we observe that some of the LEE strength transfers to a low-energy excitation, which we interpret as a finite-temperature ``scissors'' mode. Here, we also observe a finite-temperature spin-flip mode.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2022

Optimal Estimation Framework for Ocean Color Atmospheric Correction and Pixel-level Uncertainty Quantification

Ocean color remote sensing requires compensation for atmospheric scattering and absorption (aerosol, Rayleigh, and trace gases), referred to as atmospheric correction (AC). AC allows inference of parameters such as spectrally resolved remote sensing reflectance ( R rs )(λ) ; sr 1 ) at the ocean surface from the top-of-atmosphere reflectance. Often, the uncertainty of this process is not fully explored. Bayesian inference techniques provide a simultaneous AC and uncertainty assessment via a full posterior distribution of the relevant variables, given the prior distribution of those variables and the radiative transfer (RT) likelihood function. Given uncertainties in the algorithm inputs, the Bayesian framework enables better constraints on the AC process by using the complete spectral information compared to traditional approaches that use only a subset of bands for AC. This paper investigates a Bayesian inference research method (Optimal Estimation, OE) for ocean color AC by simultaneously retrieving atmospheric and ocean properties using all visible and near-infrared spectral bands. The OE algorithm analytically approximates the posterior distribution of parameters based on normality assumptions and provides a potentially viable operational algorithm with a reduced computational expense. We developed a Neural Network (NN) RT forward model look-up-table-based emulator to increase algorithm efficiency further and thus speed up the likelihood computations. We then applied the OE algorithm to synthetic data and observations from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua spacecraft. We compared the R rs )(λ) retrieval and its uncertainty estimates from the OE method with in-situ validation data from the SeaWiFS Bio-optical Archive and Storage System (SeaBASS) and Aerosol Robotic Network Ocean Color (AERONET-OC) datasets. The OE algorithm improved R rs )(λ) estimates relative to the NASA standard operational algorithm by improving all statistical metrics at 443, 555, and 667 nm. Unphysical negative R rs )(λ) , which often appear in complex water conditions, was reduced by a factor of 3. The OE-derived pixel-level R rs )(λ) uncertainty estimates were also assessed relative to in-situ data and were shown to have skill.

Atmospheric correction↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional Waveforms and Teleseismic- P Polarities with a Data-Derived Distribution of Velocity Models and Source Locations

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used in the transfer function that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedure often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. Here, we incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a data-derived distribution of velocity models based on complementary geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface-wave group velocities, and regional body-wave travel times. The data-derived distribution of velocity models is then used as a prior distribution of Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of the most probable source type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of Inducer Natural Frequency using Conditional Assessment of Modeling and Modal Testing of Simpler Systems

The low pressure fuel pump inducer of the new Space Launch System RS25 core stage engine operates in a highly complex environment that substantially affects its modal characteristics. Some of the more important effects are fluid-added mass resulting from operation within a light liquid (Hydrogen), and the magnification of this effect due to tight tip clearance. Since higher order cavitation has been identified as a significant harmonic driver, knowledge of the natural frequency of potentially excitable modes is critical for safe operation, but this frequency cannot be measured during the severe operational environment. A comprehensive testing and analysis program has therefore been performed over the last four years to identify the nominal value and uncertainty of the frequency by modeling and testing four simpler structures which share some of the characteristics of the operational inducer. This testing was used to assess and adjust modeling techniques and excellent correlation was achieved. Identification of the uncertainty in the inducer frequency itself was still problematic, however. This difficulty led to an investigation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification techniques, and to the application of the relatively simple technique of Multi-Variate Normal conditional distributions to calculate the inducer natural frequency uncertainty. Assumptions on prior distributions of uncertainty of the fluid-added mass and tip clearance effect are initially applied to models of each of the simple structures and the inducer itself, and these uncertainties are propagated to generate natural frequencies using design of experiments. Simple response surfaces are then created from this data in order to calculate a Covariance Matrix relating all of these natural frequencies. Finally, the results from modal test of the simple structures are considered to be observations and used to calculate the conditional variance of the desired inducer frequencies. As this method is less rigorous than more complicated Bayesian methods reported in the literature, a conservative factor is applied to the result, but the resulting uncertainty is still significantly less than originally estimated and will greatly assist certification of the inducer for use in the engine.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of Inducer Eigenvalues using Conditional Assessment of Models and Modal Test of Simpler Systems

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRS2011

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks

Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

Goodrich, Michael S.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-assisted generative adversarial network for X-ray tomography

X-ray tomography is capable of imaging the interior of objects in three dimensions non-invasively, with applications in biomedical imaging, materials science, electronic inspection, and other fields. The reconstruction process can be an ill-conditioned inverse problem, requiring regularization to obtain satisfactory results. Recently, deep learning has been adopted for tomographic reconstruction. Unlike iterative algorithms which require a distribution that is known a priori , deep reconstruction networks can learn a prior distribution through sampling the training distributions. In this work, we develop a Physics-assisted Generative Adversarial Network (PGAN), a two-step algorithm for tomographic reconstruction. In contrast to previous efforts, our PGAN utilizes maximum-likelihood estimates derived from the measurements to regularize the reconstruction with both known physics and the learned prior. Compared with methods with less physics assisting in training, PGAN can reduce the photon requirement with limited projection angles to achieve a given error rate. The advantages of using a physics-assisted learned prior in X-ray tomography may further enable low-photon nanoscale imaging.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-head physics-informed neural networks for learning functional priors and uncertainty quantification

In numerous applications, the integration of prior knowledge and historical information is essential, particularly for tasks requiring the solution of ordinary or partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs) in data-sparse or noisy environments. For instance, achieving accurate solutions to time-dependent PDEs with limited initial condition measurements necessitates an effective strategy for embedding prior knowledge. Hard-parameter sharing architectures in neural networks (NNs) have demonstrated success in both traditional and scientific machine learning domains, facilitating the learning of informative representations. Here, in this study, we introduce a novel, yet efficient, method to enhance physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) by incorporating a multi-head structure that enables the learning of functional priors from both empirical data and governing physical laws. This prior information can then be used to address data sparsity and high-level noise in solving ODE/PDE problems with uncertainty quantification (UQ). The approach, termed Multi-Head PINN (MH-PINN), consists of a shared body NN and multiple head NNs, each corresponding to an individual PINN instance. Our framework for functional prior learning is carried out in two stages: (1) training the MH-PINNs to develop a shared body NN alongside multiple head NNs, and (2) employing these trained head NNs to estimate a prior distribution through a normalizing flow-based density estimator. The learned functional prior can then be applied as a regularization mechanism in deterministic contexts or as an informative prior within a Bayesian inference framework, aiding in the resolution of subsequent ODE/PDE tasks. We evaluate the efficacy of MH-PINNs across five benchmark problems, including a high-dimensional parametric PDE, all characterized by data sparsity or substantial noise levels. Our findings reveal that MH-PINNs deliver accurate solutions and robust UQ, demonstrating adaptability across a range of complex and challenging scenarios.

Bayesian inference↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection via Quantum-Compatible Variational Segmentation from Remotely-sensed Data

Over the last decade, the incidence of wildfires has surged, causing widespread destruction globally. To better comprehend and manage these incidents, remote sensing and aerial missions have been implemented in recent efforts. However, this has resulted in an exponential rise in the amount of remote sensing data utilization, leading to a need for intelligent automation of data extraction in wildfire studies. Machine learning provides an accurate automated approach for detecting these natural anomalies and facilitates decision-makers to take prompt actions. To make insightful decisions in wildfire management, it is imperative to move beyond simple detection and explore the potential of probabilistic generative machine learning for creating "what-if" scenarios for various wildfire conditions. Such models offer improved representation of the stochastic nature of wildfire events. However, the optimization of these models can be computationally expensive, especially when using classical computers. Quantum computers have recently emerged as a promising solution to reduce the computational cost of training such models and improve their performance. In this study, we aim to utilize quantum-compatible machine learning techniques to implement our probabilistic generative approach. To that end, we propose a supervised probabilistic variational model consisting of a U-NET-based image-to-image component along with encoder and decoder networks which work as a variational autoencoder (VAE) component. Additionally, we explore the type of latent distribution type in the VAE component and implement different means for modeling the prior distribution. We further investigate the quantum-compatible versions of the model compared to the classical counterpart and benchmark potential benefits of quantum compatibility over the classical model.

quantum machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Attribution of heterogeneous stress distributions in low-grain polycrystals under conditions leading to damage

In high-purity polycrystalline metallic materials, voids tend to favor grain boundaries as nucleation sites due to the elevated stress states produced by granular interactions and the weakened grain boundary from the relative atomic disorder. To quantify the key factors of this elevated stress state, simple compression of a small multi-grain cylinder of body-centered cubic tantalum was simulated using a single crystal plasticity model that incorporates non-Schmid effects. Four increasingly complex synthetic microstructures were created to tractably incorporate grain boundary interactions, and a statistically significant number of combinations were performed by varying the initial crystallographic orientations of the microstructure. Most of these simulations produce the maximum von Mises stress on a grain boundary and less frequently at the multi-grain junctions. To build a statistical model for the maximum von Mises stress at the grain boundary, physically based features that could contribute to the elevated stress state were selected. Then, a learning algorithm based on information theory was used to identify which of these features contributed the most information to the data set. The identified features include a grain’s propensity to accommodate both elastic and plastic deformations and their directional components. The misalignment of the direction of each grain’s mechanical response was found to be strongly correlated to the magnitude of the stress near the grain boundary. For all of the synthetic microstructures, the statistical models produce a residual distribution that is nearly Gaussian with a variance of, at most, 10% of the prior distribution. The successful performance of the statistical model implies the correct identification of the physical features that cause severe stress localization in polycrystalline materials. The statistical models constructed here can be used to formulate a physically motivated void nucleation model which is sensitive to a microstructure’s propensity to produce elevated stress states. As a result, these statistical models also enable the design of material microstructures, in which the crystallographic orientation is chosen to resist void nucleation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗