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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

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NASA NTRS1985

Effect of accuracy of wind power prediction on power system operator

This research project proposed a modified unit commitment that schedules connection and disconnection of generating units in response to load. A modified generation control is also proposed that controls steam units under automatic generation control, fast responding diesels, gas turbines and hydro units under a feedforward control, and wind turbine array output under a closed loop array control. This modified generation control and unit commitment require prediction of trend wind power variation one hour ahead and the prediction of error in this trend wind power prediction one half hour ahead. An improved meter for predicting trend wind speed variation is developed. Methods for accurately simulating the wind array power from a limited number of wind speed prediction records was developed. Finally, two methods for predicting the error in the trend wind power prediction were developed. This research provides a foundation for testing and evaluating the modified unit commitment and generation control that was developed to maintain operating reliability at a greatly reduced overall production cost for utilities with wind generation capacity.

Schlueter, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Wind power prediction models

Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

Levy, R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Maximum predictive power and the superposition principle

In quantum physics the direct observables are probabilities of events. We ask how observed probabilities must be combined to achieve what we call maximum predictive power. According to this concept the accuracy of a prediction must only depend on the number of runs whose data serve as input for the prediction. We transform each probability to an associated variable whose uncertainty interval depends only on the amount of data and strictly decreases with it. We find that for a probability which is a function of two other probabilities maximum predictive power is achieved when linearly summing their associated variables and transforming back to a probability. This recovers the quantum mechanical superposition principle.

Summhammer, Johann↗

NASA NTRS1986

The honeymoon effect in job performance - Temporal increases in the predictive power of achievement motivation

Correlations between a job performance criterion and personality measures reflecting achievement motivation and an interpersonal orientation were examined at three points in time after completion of job training for a sample of airline reservations agents. Although correlations between the personality predictors and performance were small and nonsignificant for the 3-month period after beginning the job, by the end of six and eight months a number of significant relationships had emerged. Implications for the utility of personality measures in selection and performance prediction are discussed.

Helmreich, Robert L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Comet Enflow and VA One Acoustic-to-Structure Power Flow Predictions

Comet Enflow is a commercially available, high frequency vibroacoustic analysis software based on the Energy Finite Element Analysis (EFEA). In this method the same finite element mesh used for structural and acoustic analysis can be employed for the high frequency solutions. Comet Enflow is being validated for a floor-equipped composite cylinder by comparing the EFEA vibroacoustic response predictions with Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) results from the commercial software program VA One from ESI Group. Early in this program a number of discrepancies became apparent in the Enflow predicted response for the power flow from an acoustic space to a structural subsystem. The power flow anomalies were studied for a simple cubic, a rectangular and a cylindrical structural model connected to an acoustic cavity. The current investigation focuses on three specific discrepancies between the Comet Enflow and the VA One predictions: the Enflow power transmission coefficient relative to the VA One coupling loss factor; the importance of the accuracy of the acoustic modal density formulation used within Enflow; and the recommended use of fast solvers in Comet Enflow. The frequency region of interest for this study covers the one-third octave bands with center frequencies from 16 Hz to 4000 Hz.

Grosveld, Ferdinand W.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Improved techniques for predicting spacecraft power

Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are going to supply power for the NASA Galileo and Ulysses spacecraft now scheduled to be launched in 1989 and 1990. The duration of the Galileo mission is expected to be over 8 years. This brings the total RTG lifetime to 13 years. In 13 years, the RTG power drops more than 20 percent leaving a very small power margin over what is consumed by the spacecraft. Thus it is very important to accurately predict the RTG performance and be able to assess the magnitude of errors involved. The paper lists all the error sources involved in the RTG power predictions and describes a statistical method for calculating the tolerance.

Chmielewski, A. B.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Horizontal axis wind turbine post stall airfoil characteristics synthesization

Blade-element/momentum performance prediction codes are routinely used for wind turbine design and analysis. A weakness of these codes is their inability to consistently predict peak power upon which the machine structural design and cost are strongly dependent. The purpose of this study was to compare post-stall airfoil characteristics synthesization theory to a systematically acquired wind tunnel data set in which the effects of aspect ratio, airfoil thickness, and Reynolds number were investigated. The results of this comparison identified discrepancies between current theory and the wind tunnel data which could not be resolved. Other factors not previously investigated may account for these discrepancies and have a significant effect on peak power prediction.

Tangler, James L.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Spatial validation reveals poor predictive performance of large-scale ecological mapping models

Mapping aboveground forest biomass is central for assessing the global carbon balance. However, current large-scale maps show strong disparities, despite good validation statistics of their underlying models. Here, we attribute this contradiction to a flaw in the validation methods, which ignore spatial autocorrelation (SAC) in data, leading to overoptimistic assessment of model predictive power. To illustrate this issue, we reproduce the approach of large-scale mapping studies using a massive forest inventory dataset of 11.8 million trees in central Africa to train and validate a random forest model based on multispectral and environmental variables. A standard nonspatial validation method suggests that the model predicts more than half of the forest biomass variation, while spatial validation methods accounting for SAC reveal quasi-null predictive power. This study underscores how a common practice in big data mapping studies shows an apparent high predictive power, even when predictors have poor relationships with the ecological variable of interest, thus possibly leading to erroneous maps and interpretations.

biomass↗

NASA NTRS2017

Synergistic Use of Nighttime Satellite Data, Electric Utility Infrastructure, and Ambient Population to Improve Power Outage Detections in Urban Areas

Natural and anthropogenic hazards are frequently responsible for disaster events, leading to damaged physical infrastructure, which can result in loss of electrical power for affected locations. Remotely-sensed, nighttime satellite imagery from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) can monitor power outages in disaster-affected areas through the identification of missing city lights. When combined with locally-relevant geospatial information, these observations can be used to estimate power outages, defined as geographic locations requiring manual intervention to restore power. In this study, we produced a power outage product based on Suomi-NPP VIIRS DNB observations to estimate power outages following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This product, combined with known power outage data and ambient population estimates, was then used to predict power outages in a layered, feedforward neural network model. We believe this is the first attempt to synergistically combine such data sources to quantitatively estimate power outages. The VIIRS DNB power outage product was able to identify initial loss of light following Hurricane Sandy, as well as the gradual restoration of electrical power. The neural network model predicted power outages with reasonable spatial accuracy, achieving Pearson coefficients (r) between 0.48 and 0.58 across all folds. Our results show promise for producing a continental United States (CONUS)- or global-scale power outage monitoring network using satellite imagery and locally-relevant geospatial data.

da/night band↗

NASA NTRS2017

Towards a Universal Biology: Is the Origin and Evolution of Life Predictable?

The origin and evolution of life seems an unpredictable oddity, based on the quirks of contingency. Celebrated by the late Stephen Jay Gould in several books, "evolution by contingency" has all the adventure of a thriller, but lacks the predictive power of the physical sciences. Not necessarily so, replied Simon Conway Morris, for convergence reassures us that certain evolutionary responses are replicable. The outcome of this debate is critical to Astrobiology. How can we understand where we came from on Earth without prophesy? Further, we cannot design a rational strategy for the search for life elsewhere - or to understand what the future will hold for life on Earth and beyond - without extrapolating from pre-biotic chemistry and evolution. There are several indirect approaches to understanding, and thus describing, what life must be. These include philosophical approaches to defining life (is there even a satisfactory definition of life?), using what we know of physics, chemistry and life to imagine alternate scenarios, using different approaches that life takes as pseudoreplicates (e.g., ribosomal vs non-ribosomal protein synthesis), and experimental approaches to understand the art of the possible. Given that: (1) Life is a process based on physical components rather than simply an object; (2). Life is likely based on organic carbon and needs a solvent for chemistry, most likely water, and (3) Looking for convergence in terrestrial evolution we can predict certain tendencies, if not quite "laws", that provide predictive power. Biological history must obey the laws of physics and chemistry, the principles of natural selection, the constraints of an evolutionary past, genetics, and developmental biology. This amalgam creates a surprising amount of predictive power in the broad outline. Critical is the apparent prevalence of organic chemistry, and uniformity in the universe of the laws of chemistry and physics. Instructive is the widespread occurrence of convergent or parallel evolution, which suggests that under certain conditions similar solutions are arrived at independently.

Universal biology; life everywhere↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

Funk, Chris↗

NASA NTRS1986

Takeoff predictions for powered-lift aircraft

Takeoff predictions for powered lift short takeoff (STO) aircraft have been added to NASA Ames Research Center's aircraft synthesis (ACSYNT) code. The new computer code predicts the aircraft engine and nozzle settings required to achieve the minimum takeoff roll. As a test case, it predicted takeoff around rolls and nozzle settings for the YAV-8B Harrier that were close to the actual values. Analysis of takeoff performance for an ejector-augmentor design and a vectoring-nozzle design indicated that ground roll can be decreased, for either configuration, by horizontally moving the rear thrust vector closer to the center of gravity, by increasing the vertical position of the ram drag-vector, or by moving the rear thrust vector farther below the center of gravity.

Wardwell, Douglas A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

NASA Lewis Stirling engine computer code evaluation

In support of the U.S. Department of Energy's Stirling Engine Highway Vehicle Systems program, the NASA Lewis Stirling engine performance code was evaluated by comparing code predictions without engine-specific calibration factors to GPU-3, P-40, and RE-1000 Stirling engine test data. The error in predicting power output was -11 percent for the P-40 and 12 percent for the Re-1000 at design conditions and 16 percent for the GPU-3 at near-design conditions (2000 rpm engine speed versus 3000 rpm at design). The efficiency and heat input predictions showed better agreement with engine test data than did the power predictions. Concerning all data points, the error in predicting the GPU-3 brake power was significantly larger than for the other engines and was mainly a result of inaccuracy in predicting the pressure phase angle. Analysis into this pressure phase angle prediction error suggested that improvements to the cylinder hysteresis loss model could have a significant effect on overall Stirling engine performance predictions.

Sullivan, Timothy J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Takeoff predictions for powered-lift aircraft

Takeoff predictions for powered-lift short takeoff (STO) and conventional takeoff (CTO) aircraft have been added to NASA Ames Research Center's Aircraft Synthesis (ACSYNT) code. The new computer code predicts the aircraft engine and nozzle settings required to achieve the minimum takeoff roll. As a test case, the code predicted takeoff ground rolls and nozzle settings for the YAV-8B Harrier that compared well with measured values. Brief analysis of takeoff performance for an Ejector, Remote Augmented Lift, Hybrid-Tandem Fan, and Vectored Thrust STO aircraft using the new routine will be presented.

Wardwell, Douglas A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Health Management Applications for International Space Station

Traditional mission and vehicle management involves teams of highly trained specialists monitoring vehicle status and crew activities, responding rapidly to any anomalies encountered during operations. These teams work from the Mission Control Center and have access to engineering support teams with specialized expertise in International Space Station (ISS) subsystems. Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) applications can significantly augment these capabilities by providing enhanced monitoring, prognostic and diagnostic tools for critical decision support and mission management. The Intelligent Systems Division of NASA Ames Research Center is developing many prototype applications using model-based reasoning, data mining and simulation, working with Mission Control through the ISHM Testbed and Prototypes Project. This paper will briefly describe information technology that supports current mission management practice, and will extend this to a vision for future mission control workflow incorporating new ISHM applications. It will describe ISHM applications currently under development at NASA and will define technical approaches for implementing our vision of future human exploration mission management incorporating artificial intelligence and distributed web service architectures using specific examples. Several prototypes are under development, each highlighting a different computational approach. The ISStrider application allows in-depth analysis of Caution and Warning (C&W) events by correlating real-time telemetry with the logical fault trees used to define off-nominal events. The application uses live telemetry data and the Livingstone diagnostic inference engine to display the specific parameters and fault trees that generated the C&W event, allowing a flight controller to identify the root cause of the event from thousands of possibilities by simply navigating animated fault tree models on their workstation. SimStation models the functional power flow for the ISS Electrical Power System and can predict power balance for nominal and off-nominal conditions. SimStation uses realtime telemetry data to keep detailed computational physics models synchronized with actual ISS power system state. In the event of failure, the application can then rapidly diagnose root cause, predict future resource levels and even correlate technical documents relevant to the specific failure. These advanced computational models will allow better insight and more precise control of ISS subsystems, increasing safety margins by speeding up anomaly resolution and reducing,engineering team effort and cost. This technology will make operating ISS more efficient and is directly applicable to next-generation exploration missions and Crew Exploration Vehicles.

Alena, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1988

Development and experimental test of an analytical model of the orifice pulse tube refrigerator

An analytical model for the orifice pulse tube is developed, in which the system is described in terms of average enthalpy flow with such simplifying assumptions as an ideal gas and sinusoidal pressure variation. Phasor analysis is used to represent temperature, pressure, and mass-flow rate waves in vector form. The model predictions, namely, that the refrigeration power of a pulse-tube refrigerator is proportional to the average pressure, the pulse frequency, the mass-flow ratio, and the square of the dynamic pressure ratio, were verified by experimental measurements. It was found that, as a result of the simplifying assumptions, the magnitudes of the refrigeration power predicted by the model were between three and five times greater than experimental values.

Storch, Peter J.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Analytical predictions of RTG power degradation

The DEGRA computer code that is based on a mathematical model which predicts performance and time-temperature dependent degradation of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator is discussed. The computer code has been used to predict performance and generator degradation for the selenide Ground Demonstration Unit (GDS-1) and the generator used in the Galileo Project. Results of parametric studies of load voltage vs generator output are examined as well as the I-V curve and the resulting predicted power vs voltage. The paper also discusses the increased capability features contained in DEGRA2 and future plans for expanding the computer code performance.

Noon, E. L.↗