Machine Learning-Based Composite Power System Reliability Assessment
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Nguyen, Nga↗
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Optimization Model and Algorithm for Capacity Planning and Operation of Reliable and Carbon-neutral Power Systems with High Penetration of Renewable Generation
In this work, we propose a Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) model that optimizes both long-term capacity planning (such as the number and size of dispatchable/renewable generators, batteries, and transmission lines) and hourly operation (such as on/off schedules of dispatchable generators, power output from each generator, and power flow) to maximize power system reliability while minimizing total cost and CO2 emissions.
Cho, Seolhee↗
Resilient Energy Transition Planning for Ouzinkie, Alaska
This report documents an energy system planning study for the village of Ouzinkie, Alaska, conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP). Ouzinkie is a small remote community located on Spruce Island, Alaska, in the Kodiak Archipelago. The Ouzinkie community is served by a local electrical system powered by a combination of diesel generators and a hydroelectric turbine. Due to aging assets, however, the power system reliability has declined in recent years, while the cost of operating the diesel generators has increased significantly. To address these problems, Ouzinkie asked ETIPP to provide technical assistance to develop an updated integrated plan for improvements to the Ouzinkie power system, in order to transition to a more reliable and resilient system powered by renewable energy resources.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
A Methodology to Evaluate the Grid Reliability Impact of Oscillations Induced by Large Loads
The rapid growth of hyperscale AI data centers is bringing renewed attention to the reliability risk that sustained forced oscillations pose to bulk power systems, with cyclic computational workloads emerging as a new forcing source. Unlike the broadband, stochastic disturbances from traditional industrial loads such as arc furnaces, AI training and inference facilities can inject large active power swings concentrated at specific frequencies over extended durations - characteristics that existing grid planning practices do not account for. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized this gap and called for system-level studies of large load interconnections, no standardized methodology exists to screen, simulate, and quantify these risks at the planning stage. This report presents the Risk Assessment Tool for Large Load-induced Events (RATLLE), a Python-based, publicly available script suite developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate bulk power system reliability risks from data center-induced oscillations. RATLLE implements a three-module workflow: a screening module that identifies vulnerable interconnection locations and excitable system modes; a simulation module that models cyclic data center load behavior using a commercial positive sequence simulation platform; and an analysis module that computes risk metrics and generates interactive visualization dashboards. The risk metrics, formulated around simulation observables, map oscillation impacts to a three-stage severity scale spanning latent equipment fatigue through imminent cascading failure. The methodology is demonstrated on two Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system models: a publicly available 240-bus reduced representation and a detailed 2031 Heavy Winter planning case. Case studies illustrate that even modest 50 MW forced oscillations at resonant frequencies can produce wide-area power swings, N-1 security constraint violations, and cascading generator trips through protection actions - outcomes that would not occur under normal operating conditions without oscillations present. The results underscore the need for standardized oscillation impact assessment in large load interconnection studies and provide a reproducible, extensible framework for utilities to adopt or customize within their existing planning workflows.
Biswas, Shuchismita↗
Impacts of Regional Coordination on Transmission Needs for Power System Resource Adequacy [Slides]
Resource adequacy (RA) is an important component of bulk power system reliability that addresses whether there are sufficient resources available to meet electricity demand at all times. RA analysis is used to assess whether the planned power system will provide reliable electricity to consumers while accounting for equipment outages, weather variability, and load uncertainty. Coordination between regions can enable resource sharing to meet RA needs if sufficient transmission capacity exists. Transmission's role in RA coordination can be particularly pronounced for large power systems like the U.S. electricity grid which contains geographically diverse demand and weather-dependent resources. Depending on the level of coordination desired, existing inter-regional transmission capacity may not be sufficient. This study is designed to assess optimal pathways for the development of inter-regional transmission in the U.S. under varying levels of RA coordination. Results can inform long-term grid infrastructure planning and provide insights into potential benefits of greater coordination for generation and transmission planning between regional U.S. power systems.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Representation and Impact of Water Head on Power System Planning and Operation
Representing water head information in power system model files, can provide a more realistic model of the system and thereby inform operation and planning personnel in the decision-making process. This article describes a procedure for modifying the power system model files (steady-state and dynamic) to represent water head information. Additionally, the impact of representing the water head on power system reliability studies including contingency analysis, cascading failure analysis and dynamic frequency response analysis has been investigated, using the modified power system models. This paper considers the detailed Western Electricity Coordination Council model during summer and winter conditions as the test system for the impact analysis. Results show that under reduced water head: 1) the number of critical voltage and branch flow violations increases; 2) chances of cascading failure and island formation increases; and 3) frequency nadir decreases as compared to those of the base cases where the water head information is not represented.
13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗
A sequential Attacker-Defender game for distribution systems resilience enhancement against extreme weather events
Improving distribution system resilience against frequent extreme weather events is important for reliable power system operations. Especially when dealing with events such as hurricanes that have short-term predictions, proactive pre-event preparedness plays a vital role in system resilience performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to construct pre-event resource allocation plans for system operators to cope with upcoming threats through a sequential attacker-defender game framework. The sequential attacker-defender game is designed to model the interaction between the extreme weather and the system operator. In each round of the game, the attacker and the defender sequentially update their current strategies by accounting for the opponent’s action set. The attacker model is formulated as a bi-level problem to identify the severe outage scenarios, and the defender model is formulated as a two-stage optimization problem to determine the allocation of restoration resources including mobile responsive resources and repair crews. Two scale-reduction strategies are proposed to ensure the scalability of the game scheme. Finally, case studies on the IEEE 33-bus and a 7149-node practical utility system validate the effectiveness of the proposed sequential game and the efficiency of the scale-reduction strategies.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
An Integrated Paradigm for the Management of Delivery Risk in Electricity Markets: From Batteries to Insurance and Beyond
If power systems transition to integrate higher amounts of variable renewable energy sources, storage technologies, and distributed energy resources (DERs), new risk management frameworks are necessary to ensure cost-effective and reliable power system operations. Projects funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) program aim to contribute new risk management frameworks by developing methods to quantify and manage risk at grid asset and system levels. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) led a PERFORM project in collaboration with the Johns Hopkins University, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), kWh Analytics, Packetized Energy, and Imperial Consultants (ICON). The project addressed two challenges related to risk management in electricity markets: managing net load imbalances and flexibility from DERs. This final technical report presents a list of project accomplishments, activities, and outputs.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Lower Snake River Dams Contribution to Grid Services
Hydroelectric generation and water storage have long been components of the clean energy mix, providing both reliable steady output and operational flexibility. As variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar increasingly replace traditional generation, the role of all flexible resources—including hydropower—in balancing supply and demand continues to evolve. This study examined the contribution of the Lower Snake River (LSR) Dam plants to Bonneville Power Administration grid services in maintaining power system reliability within the Western Interconnection. By analyzing publicly available data, the study evaluated various reliability services through performance metrics including energy capacity, balancing and ramping, voltage and reactive power support, frequency response, and transmission impact. Results indicated that the LSR plants deliver services as expected based on their size, contributing to the balancing process, ramping capabilities, and operational reserves, particularly during peak load conditions and weather events, while also providing measurable frequency and voltage support to the grid.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Demonstration of Grid Services Using Mixed Grid-Forming and Grid-Following Technologies at the Wheatridge Renewable Energy Facility (Final Technical Report)
This Final Technical Report summarizes the analytical, modeling, and engineering work performed to evaluate grid-forming (GFM) inverter capabilities within a large hybrid renewable energy facility. The project focused on assessing the ability of advanced inverter-based resources to provide essential reliability services through coordinated operation of grid-forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) technologies. During Budget Period 1, the project developed a comprehensive framework of GFM performance metrics, including angle support, voltage regulation, frequency response, damping behavior, and current-limiting performance. Extensive electromagnetic transient (EMT) studies and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing were conducted to validate GFM behavior under a range of operating conditions, including weak-grid scenarios, voltage disturbances, and multi-resource interactions. The project also established validated modeling approaches, plant-level control integration strategies, commissioning frameworks, and high-speed measurement infrastructure to support future field demonstration. Although the project concluded prior to field demonstration, the results provide a utility-scale foundation for evaluating, modeling, and deploying grid-forming technologies. The methodologies and tools developed contribute to industry understanding of inverter-based resource behavior and support future power system reliability under increasing renewable penetration.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Into the Grid: Key Issues
To foster sustainable, low-emission development, many countries are establishing ambitious renewable energy targets for their electricity supply. The variability of solar and wind compared to traditional sources, coupled with growing demand for electricity, requires changes to power system planning and operations to meet these targets. Grid integration is the practice of developing efficient ways to deliver variable renewable energy (VRE), primarily wind and solar, to the grid. Good integration methods maximize the cost-effectiveness of incorporating VRE while maintaining or increasing system stability and reliability. To inform decarbonization strategies, policymakers, regulators, and system operators consider a variety of costs and opportunities associated with VRE integration, which can be organized into five topics: New renewable energy generation and transmission; Power system reliability; Transmission and distribution coordination; Cross-sectoral decarbonization opportunities; Energy equity and justice.
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Digital Assurance for Grid Reliability in the Era of Large Load Growth
The rapid expansion of large electric loads is reshaping the operational and regulatory landscape of the U.S. electric grid. These facilities are reaching new scales of expansion, now exceeding a gigawatt per site, and their highly sensitive, digitally driven behaviors introduce new reliability risks. Recent grid events, including large load losses following routine transmission disturbances, highlight the consequences of limited ride-through capability, inconsistent protection settings, inadequate modeling, and lack of behind-the-meter visibility. Parallels to earlier integration challenges of new grid technologies suggest that the grid’s existing processes, standards, and interconnection frameworks are no longer adequate for emerging large loads. This brief synthesizes lessons from the evolution of inverter-based resource regulation and applies them to large-load integration. It identifies critical gaps in modeling accuracy, interconnection processes, performance standards, and compliance mechanisms. Technical recommendations emphasize advanced monitoring, improved modeling, coordinated communication protocols, modernized substations, and structured behind-the-meter control schemes. Collectively, these measures provide a roadmap to maintain bulk power system reliability while enabling the continued growth of large, electrified digital infrastructure.
24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Two-stage Stochastic Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) Model for Proactive Planning and Reactive Operations of Resilient Power Systems under Disruptions
In this work, we propose a Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) model that optimizes both long-term capacity planning (such as the number and size of dispatchable/renewable generators, batteries, and transmission lines) and hourly operation (such as on/off schedules of dispatchable generators, power output from each generator, and power flow) to maximize power system reliability while minimizing total cost and CO2 emissions.
Cho, Seolhee↗
Measurement Adequacy for Monitoring Data Center Oscillations
Artificial intelligence (AI) training data centers with periodic load profiles can induce sustained grid oscillations across a wide frequency range, making accurate monitoring essential for reliable power system operation. This report evaluates the adequacy of existing measurement systems for monitoring such oscillations, focusing on phasor measurement units (PMUs) and point-on-wave (POW) measurement systems. The analysis shows that while PMUs are highly effective for monitoring low-frequency electromechanical oscillations, they have inherent limitations in accurately representing higher-frequency oscillations due to constraints imposed by reporting rates and the bandwidth of phasor estimation filters. Even when configured with higher reporting rates, the filtering inherent in the phasor estimation process can significantly attenuate oscillation magnitudes, potentially leading to underestimation of oscillatory behavior. This has important implications for compliance and performance monitoring of large loads. To address the limitations associated with PMU-based monitoring, the report examines the use of high-resolution POW measurements, which can capture oscillations across a broader frequency range. However, continuous POW monitoring introduces practical challenges related to large data volumes, communication bandwidth, and real-time data processing. For this reason, the report also discusses emerging approaches that use POW measurements as a complementary capability alongside PMUs to improve observability of oscillations from large data center loads.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
LAF-Net: A Deep Residual and Cross-Attention Framework for Day-Ahead Load Forecasting: Preprint
Accurate day-ahead load forecasting is essential for reliable power system operations and market efficiency. System operators such as the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) rely on forecasts from multiple vendors, yet combining them effectively remains a persistent challenge due to vendor-specific biases. This paper presents a novel LSTM-Attention Fusion Network with Error Representation (LAF-Net) that enhances day-ahead hourly load forecasting through deep residual learning and multi-modal cross-attention. The proposed model builds a historical error memory from past vendor performance and dynamically queries it with future hour context to generate adaptive, hour-specific trust weights for each vendor. A bounded residual correction further refines forecasts by mitigating systematic and temporally localized errors. Tested on real MISO LBA data with multi-vendor forecasts, LAF-Net consistently outperforms the best vendor baseline across all 38 LBAs, achieving more than a 40% reduction in system-level mean absolute error (MAE) during peak load hours relative to the best vendor baseline.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Deep Reinforcement Learning Based Control of Wind Turbines for Fast Frequency Response
In order to fulfill vital auxiliary grid services, such as load regulation, spin and non-spin reserve provision, and frequency support during emergencies, there is often a requirement for certain wind farms to operate in de-loaded modes. Leveraging the swift response capabilities of wind farms, this study demonstrates that reserving power in de-loaded modes can significantly enhance power grid stability and reliability during system contingencies. Controlling wind farms optimally for frequency support is intricate due to the nonlinearity of models and controllers and the complexity of wind farm interactions with power systems. Here, to address this challenge, this paper introduces a novel approach that integrates wind turbines into reinforcement learning-based solutions for frequency response. This innovative methodology utilizes the state-of-the-art reinforcement learning algorithm known as the surrogate-gradient-based evolutionary strategy. The proposed learning-based algorithm provides continuous control of wind farm output to rapidly stabilize system frequency and prevent unnecessary trips of under-frequency load shedding relays. To facilitate efficient training, parallel computing techniques are employed. The proposed methodology is evaluated on a modified IEEE-39 bus system, and simulation results reveal its efficacy in reliably supporting power system frequency and preventing the need for unnecessary load shedding.
Gao, Wei [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argon↗
Machine Learning-Based Composite Reliability Assessment of Power Systems
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Pandey, Ram Prasad↗
Data Center Power Systems: Architectures, Impact on Grid Reliability, Modeling Considerations, and Megawatt-Scale Hardware Testing [Slides]
This slide deck describes typical power systems of large datacenters along with reliability problems to bulk power systems from large-scale integration of datacenters. The slide deck covers the architecture of datacenter power systems, different power electronic converters used inside datacenters, their operation modes, and R&Dopportunities in maintaining grid stability.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗