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At least 19 records

The Power Curve Working Group's Assessment of Wind Turbine Power Performance Prediction Methods

A wind turbine power curve is often only strictly valid for a subset of all atmospheric conditions (i.e., the inner range), while wind turbines also operate in other scenarios (i.e., the outer range). Hence, modeling the power output in real-world conditions is a fundamental challenge. For example, the power deviation matrix (PDM) in Figure 1 displays an overprediction of power production using a reference power curve when wind speed (WS) and turbulence intensity (TI) are both low. Many experts use the PDM approach to observe any systematic bias in power curves and correct this in energy yield models. The mission of the Power Curve Working Group (PCWG) is to bring together wind industry stakeholders to help identify, validate, and develop ways to improve modeling of wind turbine performance in all atmospheric conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Power Curve Working Group's assessment of wind turbine power performance prediction methods

Wind turbine power production deviates from the reference power curve in real-world atmospheric conditions. Correctly predicting turbine power performance requires models to be validated for a wide range of wind turbines using inflow in different locations. The Share-3 exercise is the most recent intelligence-sharing exercise of the Power Curve Working Group, which aims to advance the modeling of turbine performance. The goal of the exercise is to search for modeling methods that reduce error and uncertainty in power prediction when wind shear and turbulence digress from design conditions. Herein, we analyze data from 55 wind turbine power performance tests from nine contributing organizations with statistical tests to quantify the skills of the prediction-correction methods. We assess the accuracy and precision of four proposed trial methods against the baseline method, which uses the conventional definition of a power curve with wind speed and air density at hub height. The trial methods reduce power-production prediction errors compared to the baseline method at high wind speeds, which contribute heavily to power production; however, the trial methods fail to significantly reduce prediction uncertainty in most meteorological conditions. For the meteorological conditions when a wind turbine produces less than the power its reference power curve suggests, using power deviation matrices leads to more accurate power prediction. We also determine that for more than half of the submissions, the data set has a large influence on the effectiveness of a trial method. Overall, this work affirms the value of data-sharing efforts in advancing power curve modeling and establishes the groundwork for future collaborations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Implementing Machine Learning in the PCWG Tool

The Power Curve Working Group (www.pcwg.org) is an ad-hoc industry-led group to investigate the performance of wind turbines in real-world conditions. As part of ongoing experience-sharing exercises, machine learning has been proposed as a possible way to predict turbine performance. This presentation provides some background information about machine learning and how it might be implemented in the PCWG exercises.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Integral Full Core Multi-Physics PWR Benchmark with Measured Data

In recent years, the importance of modeling and simulation has been highlighted extensively in the DOE research portfolio with concrete examples in nuclear engineering with the CASL and NEAMS programs. These research efforts and similar efforts worldwide aim at the development of high-fidelity multi-physics analysis tools for the simulation of current and next-generation nuclear power reactors. Like all analysis tools, verification and validation is essential to guarantee proper functioning of the software and methods employed. The current approach relies mainly on the validation of single physic phenomena (e.g. critical experiment, flow loops, etc.) and there is a lack of relevant multiphysics benchmark measurements that are necessary to validate high-fidelity methods being developed today. This work introduces a new multi-cycle full-core Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) depletion benchmark based on two operational cycles of a commercial nuclear power plant that provides a detailed description of fuel assemblies, burnable absorbers, in-core fission detectors, core loading and re-loading patterns. This benchmark enables analysts to develop extremely detailed reactor core models that can be used for testing and validation of coupled neutron transport, thermal-hydraulics, and fuel isotopic depletion. The benchmark also provides measured reactor data for Hot Zero Power (HZP) physics tests, boron letdown curves, and three-dimensional in-core flux maps from 58 instrumented assemblies. The benchmark description is now available online and has been used by many groups. However, much work remains to be done on the quantification of uncertainties and modeling sensitivities. This work aims to address these deficiencies and make this benchmark a true non-proprietary international benchmark for the validation of high-fidelity tools. This report details the BEAVRS uncertainty quantification for the first two cycle of operations and serves as the final report of the project.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

THE PROPERTIES OF THE 2175 A EXTINCTION FEATURE DISCOVERED IN GRB AFTERGLOWS

The unequivocal, spectroscopic detection of the 2175 A bump in extinction curves outside the Local Group is rare. To date, the properties of the bump have been examined in only two gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows (GRB 070802 and GRB 080607). In this work, we analyze in detail the detections of the 2175 Angstrom-Sign extinction bump in the optical spectra of two further GRB afterglows: GRB 080605 and 080805. We gather all available optical/near-infrared photometric, spectroscopic, and X-ray data to construct multi-epoch spectral energy distributions (SEDs) for both GRB afterglows. We fit the SEDs with the Fitzpatrick and Massa model with a single or broken power law. We also fit a sample of 38 GRB afterglows, known to prefer a Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC)-type extinction curve, with the same model. We find that the SEDs of GRB 080605 and GRB 080805 at two epochs are fit well with a single power law with a derived extinction of A{sub V} = 0.52{sup +0.13}{sub -0.16} and 0.50{sup +0.13}{sub -0.10}, and 2.1{sup +0.7}{sub -0.6} and 1.5 {+-} 0.2, respectively. While the slope of the extinction curve of GRB 080805 is not well constrained, the extinction curve of GRB 080605 has an unusual very steep far-UV rise together with the 2175 A bump. Such an extinction curve has previously been found in only a small handful of sightlines in the Milky Way. One possible explanation of such an extinction curve may be dust arising from two different regions with two separate grain populations, however we cannot distinguish the origin of the curve. We finally compare the four 2175 A bump sightlines to the larger GRB afterglow sample and to Local Group sightlines. We find that while the width and central positions of the bumps are consistent with what is observed in the Local Group, the relative strength of the detected bump (A{sub bump}) for GRB afterglows is weaker for a given A{sub V} than for almost any Local Group sightline. Such dilution of the bump strength may offer tentative support to a dual dust-population scenario.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Development and Applications of a Stage Stacking Procedure

The preliminary design of multistage axial compressors in gas turbine engines is typically accomplished with mean-line methods. These methods, which rely on empirical correlations, estimate compressor performance well near the design point, but may become less reliable off-design. For land-based applications of gas turbine engines, off-design performance estimates are becoming increasingly important, as turbine plant operators desire peaking or load-following capabilities and hot-day operability. The current work develops a one-dimensional stage stacking procedure, including a newly defined blockage term, which is used to estimate the off-design performance and operability range of a 13-stage axial compressor used in a power generating gas turbine engine. The new blockage term is defined to give mathematical closure on static pressure, and values of blockage are shown to collapse to curves as a function of stage inlet flow coefficient and corrected shaft speed. In addition to these blockage curves, the stage stacking procedure utilizes stage characteristics of ideal work coefficient and adiabatic efficiency. These curves are constructed using flow information extracted from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of groups of stages within the compressor. Performance estimates resulting from the stage stacking procedure are shown to match the results of CFD simulations of the entire compressor to within 1.6% in overall total pressure ratio and within 0.3 points in overall adiabatic efficiency. Utility of the stage stacking procedure is demonstrated by estimation of the minimum corrected speed which allows stable operation of the compressor. Further utility of the stage stacking procedure is demonstrated with a bleed sensitivity study, which estimates a bleed schedule to expand the compressors operating range.

Kulkarni, Sameer↗

Analysis of Localized Deformation Processes in Highly Irradiated Austenitic Stainless Steel through In Situ Techniques

This report describes new experimental results obtained during in situ mechanical tests with neutron-irradiated (10.7 dpa) austenitic 304L steel specimens. The in situ tensile tests inside a scanning electron microscope (SEM) were accompanied by modern high-resolution electron backscatter diffraction (HR-EBSD) analysis. The HR-EBSD approach allowed for investigating and quantifying internal stresses and dislocation structures in nondeformed and deformed steels, materials used in light water reactor internal components. The literature regarding the HR-EBSD analysis of metals and alloys is very limited, and practically no publications on the HR-EBSD analysis coupled with in situ tests are available. Experimental work, performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Low Activation Materials Development and Analysis facility, is detailed in this report. Section 1 briefly describes strain and stress localization processes and underlines their importance and role in irradiated materials, materials used in nuclear power plants. The section demonstrates that very limited quantitative data exist regarding localized stresses and strains in the irradiated materials at the meso-level (i.e., inside the grain, for a group of interacting grains, or for channel–grain boundary [GB] interaction) whereas local stresses at GBs are key contributors to the stress corrosion crack initiation.Section 2 documents the key methods used to conduct the experimental work: the SEM/EBSD system, miniature tensile frame, and irradiated material. Irradiated specimen manufacturing is described, as this option may be of special interest for other projects. Section 3 provides details of the HR-EBSD in situ tests (e.g., tensile curves, geometry, dimensions of regions of interest, load, and deformation steps). Section 4 discusses the results related to the evolution of geometrically necessary dislocations (GNDs) and their density, spatial, and statistical distributions.Section 5 focuses on the HR-EBSD analysis with respect to a channel–GB interaction. Two aspects are discussed in detail: mapping and analyzing the GND fields before and after loading, and the possibility of investigating local stresses and elastic strains at the channel–GB interaction. The present work results are beneficial for understanding strain and stress localization processes leading to crack initiation, for analyzing the material after long-term in-service life, and for developing predictive models. Section 6 summarizes the work performed and discusses future activities within this research direction.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The differing magnitude distributions of the two Jupiter Trojan color populations

The Jupiter Trojans are a significant population of minor bodies in the middle solar system that have garnered substantial interest in recent years. Several spectroscopic studies of these objects have revealed notable bimodalities with respect to near-infrared spectra, infrared albedo, and color, which suggest the existence of two distinct groups among the Trojan population. In this paper, we analyze the magnitude distributions of these two groups, which we refer to as the red and less red color populations. By compiling spectral and photometric data from several previous works, we show that the observed bimodalities are self-consistent and categorize 221 of the 842 Trojans with absolute magnitudes in the range H<12.3 into the two color populations. We demonstrate that the magnitude distributions of the two color populations are distinct to a high confidence level (>95%) and fit them individually to a broken power law, with special attention given to evaluating and correcting for incompleteness in the Trojan catalog as well as incompleteness in our categorization of objects. A comparison of the best-fit curves shows that the faint-end power-law slopes are markedly different for the two color populations, which indicates that the red and less red Trojans likely formed in different locations. We propose a few hypotheses for the origin and evolution of the Trojan population based on the analyzed data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Estimation of the Thermal-Fluids and Thermal-Structural Performance of Helium-Cooled Modular Finger-Type Divertors

Over the past decade, our group has investigated the thermal-fluid performance of the helium-cooled modular divertor with multiple jets (HEMJ) and a simplified “flat” design of the HEMJ for long-pulse magnetic fusion energy (MFE) reactors. Experimental studies were performed in a helium (He) loop at the prototypical pressure of 10 MPa, nearly prototypical He temperatures and incident heat fluxes using test sections made from stainless steel and tungsten alloys. Correlations for average Nusselt numbers and pressure loss coefficients were developed from the data and are used to validate computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models. Here, this work presents updated thermal-fluids performance curves based on these correlations that estimate the maximum heat flux that can be accommodated by the plasma-facing surface and coolant pumping power requirements at prototypical operating conditions. Thermal-structural performance curves developed from ITER structural design criteria are introduced, which include protection against ductile and non-ductile failure, ratcheting fatigue, and creep fatigue. The performance design curves for these finger-type divertors demonstrate that the “flat” design, with a significantly less complicated geometry than the HEMJ, has thermal-fluid and thermal-structural performance comparable to the original HEMJ concept, and may be superior in terms of non-ductile failure criteria.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Repurposing of Batteries from Electric Vehicles

Energy storage for stationary use is gaining traction both at the grid scale and distributed level. As renewable energy generation increases, energy storage is needed to compensate for the volatility of renewable over various time scales. This requires energy storage that is tailored for various energy to power (E/P) ratios. Other applications for energy storage include peak shaving, time shifting, load leveling, VAR control, frequency regulation, spinning reserves and other ancillary applications. While the need for energy storage for stationary applications is obvious, the regulations that determine the economic value of adding storage are at various stages of development. This has created a reluctance on the part of energy storage manufacturers to develop a suite of storage systems that can address the myriad of applications associated with stationary applications. Deployment of battery energy storage systems in the transportation sector is ahead of the curve with respect to the stationary space. Batteries, along with battery management systems (BMS) have been deployed for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and electric vehicles (EVs). HEVs have now been deployed for 12 years, while PHEVs for 8 and EVs for 4 years. Some of the batteries are approaching end of life within the vehicle, and are ready to be taken off for recycling and disposal. Performance within a vehicle is non-negotiable in terms of miles traveled per charge, resulting in the batteries retaining a significant portion of their life. For stationary applications, the remaining energy and power of the battery can still be used by grouping together a few of these batteries. This enables getting the most of these batteries, while ensuring that performance is not compromised in either the automotive or stationary applications. This work summarizes the opportunities for such re-purposing of automotive batteries, along with the advantages and limitations

battery management systems↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Solar Energetic Particle Events

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region's magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region's rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region's present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region's expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region's recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

Energy Efficiency and Infrastructure Upgrades on Nuclear Clean-up Sites: The Hanford Experience - 18641

The Hanford site, located in southeastern Washington, produced much of our nation's weapons-grade plutonium for the Defense nuclear weapons program. This production lasted the better part of four decades with production ending in 1987. Since 1987, the focus of the Hanford site has turned to clean-up activities. Mission Support Alliance (MSA) is the integrator of the multi-contractor effort to clean up the Hanford site. MSA collaborates with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and all Hanford site contractors in finding and implementing new, cost-saving, safe and practical solutions to cleanup challenges with a continual focus on innovative processes and technologies that reduce costs, energy use and bring safety improvements to the site. Support Services include environmental integration and land management; fleet and road maintenance; water/electric and utilities; cyber security and information management as well as the preservation of the site's cultural artifacts. This paper describes the process, challenges, and focus on infrastructure upgrade and energy efficiency projects in the context of a multi-contractor nuclear clean-up site. Project development and new technology deployment at Hanford has long been plagued with economic challenges. For example, despite extensive auditing, analysis, and project development, most of the energy-related projects on the Hanford site have gone unfunded due to the low cost of electricity, the relatively high cost of labor, and costs associated with detailed safety and cultural reviews. - The Hanford site is a direct-service customer of the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and has a marginal electricity rate of $0.033/kWh. - Labor costs on the Hanford site track high because of the requirements associated with the safety and security necessary to operate a legacy nuclear weapons complex. - In partnership with three federally recognized and other affected Native American tribes (Yakama Nation, Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, the Nez Perce Tribe, and Wanapum People), most activities on the Hanford site are afforded in-depth cultural reviews. To work within these constraints, the MSA Energy Management team has embarked on a three-pronged approach to energy project development: Program Visibility: The MSA Energy Management team has promoted both project opportunities and requirements across the Hanford site. This information comes in the form of site-wide newsletters, group meetings, e-mails, success stories, and recognition of staff. Single-point Analysis: To by-pass the inevitable duplications of effort, learning curve issues, and to improve project consistency/delivery, the MSA Energy Management team serves as the single resource to the site for energy project analysis. This resource includes initial assessment, engineering analysis, efficiency calculation and project recommendations. Contractor/utility Interface: In addition to the infrastructure under its own purview, MSA provides all support services for the contractor/utility interface. These activities include formulation and submission of incentive-based efficiency projects, project tracking, and incentive awards. All incentive awards are forwarded to the relevant contractor and then highlighted in the visibility campaign. Successful energy efficiency projects at Hanford have included high efficiency heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) systems, interior and exterior lighting/lighting control systems, pump and motor systems, and the right-sizing of transformers and area-wide electrical distribution systems. Prior to the initiation of this program and structure (roughly 3 years ago) the average annual energy efficiency incentive applied for and received was under $10,000, with an annual energy savings of approximately 36,000 kilowatt hours (kWh). In fiscal year 2017, the annual incentive received was over $419,000, with identified energy savings of over 1.3 million kWh. Details and case studies of the major project accomplishments are included. The success of this program can be traced to an understanding of the constraints, the development of a program to address these constraints, and good communication/coordination across DOE and the multiple contractors serving the Hanford site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

TU-CD-BRB-09: Prediction of Chemo-Radiation Outcome for Rectal Cancer Based On Radiomics of Tumor Clinical Characteristics and Multi-Parametric MRI

Purpose: To evaluate the tumor clinical characteristics and quantitative multi-parametric MR imaging features for prediction of response to chemo-radiation treatment (CRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Methods: Forty-three consecutive patients (59.7±6.9 years, from 09/2013 – 06/2014) receiving neoadjuvant CRT followed by surgery were enrolled. All underwent MRI including anatomical T1/T2, Dynamic Contrast Enhanced (DCE)-MRI and Diffusion-Weighted MRI (DWI) prior to the treatment. A total of 151 quantitative features, including morphology/Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) texture from T1/T2, enhancement kinetics and the voxelized distribution from DCE-MRI, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) from DWI, along with clinical information (carcinoembryonic antigen CEA level, TNM staging etc.), were extracted for each patient. Response groups were separated based on down-staging, good response and pathological complete response (pCR) status. Logistic regression analysis (LRA) was used to select the best predictors to classify different groups and the predictive performance were calculated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results: Individual imaging category or clinical charateristics might yield certain level of power in assessing the response. However, the combined model outperformed than any category alone in prediction. With selected features as Volume, GLCM AutoCorrelation (T2), MaxEnhancementProbability (DCE-MRI), and MeanADC (DWI), the down-staging prediciton accuracy (area under the ROC curve, AUC) could be 0.95, better than individual tumor metrics with AUC from 0.53–0.85. While for the pCR prediction, the best set included CEA (clinical charateristics), Homogeneity (DCE-MRI) and MeanADC (DWI) with an AUC of 0.89, more favorable compared to conventional tumor metrics with an AUC ranging from 0.511–0.79. Conclusion: Through a systematic analysis of multi-parametric MR imaging features, we are able to build models with improved predictive value over conventional imaging or clinical metrics. This is encouraging, suggesting the wealth of imaging radiomics should be further explored to help tailor the treatment into the era of personalized medicine. This work is supported by the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC Grant No. 81201091), National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 program, Grant No. 2015AA020917), and Fund Project for Excellent Abroad Scholar Personnel in Science and Technology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Hierarchically Porous Carbons with Highly Curved Surfaces for Hosting Single Metal FeN 4 Sites as Outstanding Oxygen Reduction Catalysts

Iron–nitrogen–carbon (Fe₋N₋C) materials have emerged as a promising alternative to platinum-group metals for catalyzing the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in proton-exchange-membrane fuel cells. However, their low intrinsic activity and stability are major impediments. Herein, an Fe₋N–C electrocatalyst with dense FeN 4 sites on hierarchically porous carbons with highly curved surfaces (denoted as FeN 4 - hc C) is reported. The FeN 4 - hc C catalyst displays exceptional ORR activity in acidic media, with a high half-wave potential of 0.85 V (versus reversible hydrogen electrode) in 0.5 m H 2 SO 4 . When integrated into a membrane electrode assembly, the corresponding cathode displays a high maximum peak power density of 0.592 W cm -2 and demonstrates operating durability over 30 000 cycles under harsh H 2 /air conditions, outperforming previously reported Fe–N₋C electrocatalysts. These experimental and theoretical studies suggest that the curved carbon support fine-tunes the local coordination environment, lowers the energies of the Fe d-band centers, and inhibits the adsorption of oxygenated species, which can enhance the ORR activity and stability. This work provides new insight into the carbon nanostructure–activity correlation for ORR catalysis. It also offers a new approach to designing advanced single-metal-site catalysts for energy-conversion applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Photometric study on stellar magnetic activity. I. Flare variability of red dwarf stars in the open cluster M37

Based on one-month long MMT time-series observations of the open cluster M37, we monitored light variations of nearly 2500 red dwarfs and successfully identified 420 flare events from 312 cluster M dwarf stars. For each flare light curve, we derived observational and physical parameters, such as flare shape, peak amplitude, duration, energy, and peak luminosity. We show that cool stars produce serendipitous flares energetic enough to be observed in the r-band, and their temporal and peak characteristics are almost the same as those in traditional U-band observations. We also found many large-amplitude flares with inferred Δu>6 mag in the cluster sample which had been rarely reported in previous ground-based observations. Following the ergodic hypothesis, we investigate in detail statistical properties of flare parameters over a range of energy (E{sub r} ≃ 10{sup 31}–10{sup 34} erg). As expected, there are no statistical differences in the distributions of flare timescales, energies, and frequencies among stars of the same age and mass group. We note that our sample tend to have longer rise and decay timescales compared to those seen in field flare stars of the same spectral type and be more energetic. Flare frequency distributions follow power-law distributions with slopes β∼0.62–1.21 for all flare stars and β∼0.52–0.97 for stars with membership information (P{sub mem}⩾0.2). These are in general agreement with previous works on flare statistics of young open clusters and nearby field stars. Our results give further support to the classical age–activity relations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗