Gradient-Enhanced Polynomial Chaos Methods for Circuit Simulation.
Abstract not provided.
Keiter, Eric R.↗
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Results for “Polynomial chaos”
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Bayesian Adaptive Polynomial Chaos Expansions
Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully Bayesian formulations remain rare—especially with implementations in R. Motivated by the success of adaptive Bayesian machine learning models such as BART, BASS and BPPR, we develop a new fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with an efficient and accessible R implementation: khaos. Our approach includes a novel proposal distribution that enables data-driven interaction selection and supports a modified g-prior tailored to PCE structure. Through simulation studies and real-world UQ applications, we demonstrate that the Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for surrogate modeling, global sensitivity analysis and ordinal regression tasks.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Compressive Sensing with Cross-Validation and Stop-Sampling for Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansions
Here, compressive sensing is a powerful technique for recovering sparse solutions of underdetermined linear systems, which is often encountered in uncertainty quantification analysis of expensive and high-dimensional physical models. We perform numerical investigations employing several compressive sensing solvers that target the unconstrained LASSO formulation, with a focus on linear systems that arise in the construction of polynomial chaos expansions. With core solvers l1_ls, SpaRSA, CGIST, FPC_AS, and ADMM, we develop techniques to mitigate overfitting through an automated selection of regularization constant based on cross-validation, and a heuristic strategy to guide the stop-sampling decision. Practical recommendations on parameter settings for these techniques are provided and discussed. The overall method is applied to a series of numerical examples of increasing complexity, including large eddy simulations of supersonic turbulent jet-in-crossflow involving a 24-dimensional input. Through empirical phase-transition diagrams and convergence plots, we illustrate sparse recovery performance under structures induced by polynomial chaos, accuracy, and computational trade-offs between polynomial bases of different degrees, and practicability of conducting compressive sensing for a realistic, high-dimensional physical application. Across test cases studied in this paper, we find ADMM to have demonstrated empirical advantages through consistent lower errors and faster computational times.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A robust and efficient stepwise regression method for building sparse polynomial chaos expansions
Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions are widely used in various engineering fields for quantifying uncertainties arising from uncertain parameters. The computational cost of classical PC solution schemes is unaffordable as the number of deterministic simulations to be calculated grows dramatically with the number of stochastic dimension. This considerably restricts the practical use of PC at the industrial level. A common approach to address such problems is to make use of sparse PC expansions. This paper presents a non-intrusive regression-based method for building sparse PC expansions. The most important PC contributions are detected sequentially through an automatic search procedure. The variable selection criterion is based on efficient tools relevant to probabilistic method. Two benchmark analytical functions are used to validate the proposed algorithm. The computational efficiency of the method is then illustrated by a more realistic CFD application, consisting of the non-deterministic flow around a transonic airfoil subject to geometrical uncertainties. To assess the performance of the developed methodology, a detailed comparison is made with the well established LAR-based selection technique. The results show that the developed sparse regression technique is able to identify the most significant PC contributions describing the problem. Moreover, the most important stochastic features are captured at a reduced computational cost compared to the LAR method. The results also demonstrate the superior robustness of the method by repeating the analyses using random experimental designs.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Least squares polynomial chaos expansion: A review of sampling strategies
Not Available
Hadigol, Mohammad↗
Multi-model polynomial chaos surrogate dictionary for Bayesian inference in elasticity problems
Not provided.
Engineering↗
SAMBA: Sparse Approximation of Moment-Based Arbitrary Polynomial Chaos
A new arbitrary Polynomial Chaos (aPC) method is presented for moderately high-dimensional problems characterised by limited input data availability. The proposed methodology improves the algorithm of aPC and extends the method, that was previously only introduced as tensor product expansion, to moderately high-dimensional stochastic problems. The fundamental idea of aPC is to use the statistical moments of the input random variables to develop the polynomial chaos expansion. This approach provides the possibility to propagate continuous or discrete probability density functions and also histograms (data sets) as long as their moments exist, are finite and the determinant of the moment matrix is strictly positive. For cases with limited data availability, this approach avoids bias and fitting errors caused by wrong assumptions. In this work, an alternative way to calculate the aPC is suggested, which provides the optimal polynomials, Gaussian quadrature collocation points and weights from the moments using only a handful of matrix operations on the Hankel matrix of moments. It can therefore be implemented without requiring prior knowledge about statistical data analysis or a detailed understanding of the mathematics of polynomial chaos expansions. The extension to more input variables suggested in this work, is an anisotropic and adaptive version of Smolyak's algorithm that is solely based on the moments of the input probability distributions. It is referred to as SAMBA (PC), which is short for Sparse Approximation of Moment-Based Arbitrary Polynomial Chaos. It is illustrated that for moderately high-dimensional problems (up to 20 different input variables or histograms) SAMBA can significantly simplify the calculation of sparse Gaussian quadrature rules. SAMBA's efficiency for multivariate functions with regard to data availability is further demonstrated by analysing higher order convergence and accuracy for a set of nonlinear test functions with 2, 5 and 10 different input distributions or histograms.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Topology optimization under uncertainty via non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion
This paper presents a systematic approach for topology optimization under uncertainty that integrates non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion with design sensitivity analysis for reliability-based and robust topology optimization. Uncertainty is introduced in loading and in geometry to address the manufacturing variability. The manufacturing variability is modeled via a thresholding technique in which the threshold field is represented by a reduced dimensional random field. Response metrics such as compliance and volume are characterized as polynomial chaos expansions of the underlying uncertain parameters thus allowing accurate and efficient estimation of statistical moments, failure probabilities and their sensitivities. The number of simulations is reduced for linear structures under loading uncertainty by means of superposition. Efficiency of the non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach is highlighted by comparison with the Monte Carlo method in terms of the number of simulations. To demonstrate the effect of uncertainty, optimized designs that consider uncertainty are compared to those that do not. Finally, comparisons of polynomial chaos expansion to existing analytical methods on a benchmark numerical example are also provided for reliability-based and worst case designs.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Polynomial chaos representation of databases on manifolds
Characterizing the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) of a vector-valued random variable with probability distribution concentrated on a manifold is a relevant problem in data-driven settings. The probability distribution of such random vectors is multimodal in general, leading to potentially very slow convergence of the PCE. In this paper, we build on a recent development for estimating and sampling from probabilities concentrated on a diffusion manifold. The proposed methodology constructs a PCE of the random vector together with an associated generator that samples from the target probability distribution which is estimated from data concentrated in the neighborhood of the manifold. The method is robust and remains efficient for high dimension and large datasets. The resulting polynomial chaos construction on manifolds permits the adaptation of many uncertainty quantification and statistical tools to emerging questions motivated by data-driven queries.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Polynomial chaos expansions for dependent random variables
Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) are well-suited to quantifying uncertainty in models parameterized by independent random variables. The assumption of independence leads to simple strategies for building multivariate orthonormal bases and for sampling strategies to evaluate PCE coefficients. In contrast, the application of PCE to models of dependent variables is much more challenging. Three approaches can be used to construct PCE of models of dependent variables. The first approach uses mapping methods where measure transformations, such as the Nataf and Rosenblatt transformation, can be used to map dependent random variables to independent ones; however we show that this can significantly degrade performance since the Jacobian of the map must be approximated. A second strategy is the class of dominating support methods. In these approaches a PCE is built using independent random variables whose distributional support dominates the support of the true dependent joint density; we provide evidence that this approach appears to produce approximations with suboptimal accuracy. A third approach, the novel method proposed here, uses Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization (GSO) to numerically compute orthonormal polynomials for the dependent random variables. This approach has been used successfully when solving differential equations using the intrusive stochastic Galerkin method, and in this paper we use GSO to build PCE using a non-intrusive stochastic collocation method. The stochastic collocation method treats the model as a black box and builds approximations of the input-output map from a set of samples. Building PCE from samples can introduce ill-conditioning which does not plague stochastic Galerkin methods. To mitigate this ill-conditioning we generate weighted Leja sequences, which are nested sample sets, to build accurate polynomial interpolants. We show that our proposed approach, GSO with weighted Leja sequences, produces PCE which are orders of magnitude more accurate than PCE constructed using mapping or dominating support methods.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
An extended polynomial chaos expansion for PDF characterization and variation with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
This paper presents an extended polynomial chaos formalism for epistemic uncertainties and a new framework for evaluating sensitivities and variations of output probability density functions (PDF) to uncertainty in probabilistic models of input variables. An ”extended” polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) approach is developed that accounts for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, modeled as random variables, thus allowing a unified treatment of both types of uncertainty. We explore in particular epistemic uncertainty associated with the choice of prior probabilistic models for input parameters. A PCE-based Kernel Density (KDE) construction provides a composite map from the PCE coefficients and germ to the PDF of quantities of interest (QoI). Here, the sensitivities of these PDF with respect to the input parameters are then evaluated. Input parameters of the probabilistic models are considered. By sampling over the epistemic random variable, a family of PDFs is generated and the failure probability is itself estimated as a random variable with its own PCE. Integrating epistemic uncertainties within the PCE framework results in a computationally efficient paradigm for propagation and sensitivity evaluation. Two typical illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.
Aleatory uncertainty↗
A dynamical polynomial chaos approach for long-time evolution of SPDEs
We propose a Dynamical generalized Polynomial Chaos (DgPC) method to solve time-dependent stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) with white noise forcing. The long-time simulation of SPDE solutions by Polynomial Chaos (PC) methods is notoriously difficult as the dimension of the stochastic variables increases linearly with time. Exploiting the Markovian property of white noise, DgPC implements a restart procedure that allows us to expand solutions at future times in terms of orthogonal polynomials of the measure describing the solution at a given time and the future white noise. The dimension of the representation is kept minimal by application of a Karhunen–Loeve (KL) expansion. Using frequent restarts and low degree polynomials on sparse multi-index sets, the method allows us to perform long time simulations, including the calculation of invariant measures for systems which possess one. We apply the method to the numerical simulation of stochastic Burgers and Navier–Stokes equations with white noise forcing. Our method also allows us to incorporate time-independent random coefficients such as a random viscosity. We propose several numerical simulations and show that the algorithm compares favorably with standard Monte Carlo methods.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Inverse Modeling of Hydrologic Parameters in CLM4 via Generalized Polynomial Chaos in the Bayesian Framework
In this work, generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion for land surface model parameter estimation is evaluated. We perform inverse modeling and compute the posterior distribution of the critical hydrological parameters that are subject to great uncertainty in the Community Land Model (CLM) for a given value of the output LH. The unknown parameters include those that have been identified as the most influential factors on the simulations of surface and subsurface runoff, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and soil moisture in CLM4.0. We set up the inversion problem in the Bayesian framework in two steps: (i) building a surrogate model expressing the input–output mapping, and (ii) performing inverse modeling and computing the posterior distributions of the input parameters using observation data for a given value of the output LH. The development of the surrogate model is carried out with a Bayesian procedure based on the variable selection methods that use gPC expansions. Our approach accounts for bases selection uncertainty and quantifies the importance of the gPC terms, and, hence, all of the input parameters, via the associated posterior probabilities.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Application of polynomial chaos expansion in inverse transport problems with neutron multiplication measurements and multiple unknowns - 25623
The polynomial chaos expansion technique is used to build surrogate models of the dependences of gamma-ray fluxes and neutron multiplication to unknown physical parameters in radiological source/shield systems. These surrogate models are used with the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM), a method to solve and quantify uncertainty in inverse transport problems. Measured data in the inverse problems includes both passive gamma rays and neutron multiplication. The polynomial chaos expansion approach is shown to increase the speed of DREAM by factors of greater than 60 while not degrading the accuracy of the solution. (authors)
61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗