Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Poisson regression”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

Zero-truncated Poisson regression for sparse multiway count data corrupted by false zeros

Abstract We propose a novel statistical inference methodology for multiway count data that is corrupted by false zeros that are indistinguishable from true zero counts. Our approach consists of zero-truncating the Poisson distribution to neglect all zero values. This simple truncated approach dispenses with the need to distinguish between true and false zero counts and reduces the amount of data to be processed. Inference is accomplished via tensor completion that imposes low-rank tensor structure on the Poisson parameter space. Our main result shows that an $N$-way rank-$R$ parametric tensor $\boldsymbol{\mathscr{M}}\in (0,\infty )^{I\times \cdots \times I}$ generating Poisson observations can be accurately estimated by zero-truncated Poisson regression from approximately $IR^2\log _2^2(I)$ non-zero counts under the nonnegative canonical polyadic decomposition. Our result also quantifies the error made by zero-truncating the Poisson distribution when the parameter is uniformly bounded from below. Therefore, under a low-rank multiparameter model, we propose an implementable approach guaranteed to achieve accurate regression in under-determined scenarios with substantial corruption by false zeros. Several numerical experiments are presented to explore the theoretical results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluating county-level lung cancer incidence from environmental radiation exposure, PM 2.5 , and other exposures with regression and machine learning models

Characterizing the interplay between exposures shaping the human exposome is vital for uncovering the etiology of complex diseases. For example, cancer risk is modified by a range of multifactorial external environmental exposures. Environmental, socioeconomic, and lifestyle factors all shape lung cancer risk. However, epidemiological studies of radon aimed at identifying populations at high risk for lung cancer often fail to consider multiple exposures simultaneously. For example, moderating factors, such as PM 2.5 , may affect the transport of radon progeny to lung tissue. This ecological analysis leveraged a population-level dataset from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results data (2013–17) to simultaneously investigate the effect of multiple sources of low-dose radiation (gross γ activity and indoor radon) and PM 2.5 on lung cancer incidence rates in the USA. County-level factors (environmental, sociodemographic, lifestyle) were controlled for, and Poisson regression and random forest models were used to assess the association between radon exposure and lung and bronchus cancer incidence rates. Tree-based machine learning (ML) method perform better than traditional regression: Poisson regression: 6.29/7.13 (mean absolute percentage error, MAPE), 12.70/12.77 (root mean square error, RMSE); Poisson random forest regression: 1.22/1.16 (MAPE), 8.01/8.15 (RMSE). The effect of PM 2.5 increased with the concentration of environmental radon, thereby confirming findings from previous studies that investigated the possible synergistic effect of radon and PM 2.5 on health outcomes. In summary, the results demonstrated (1) a need to consider multiple environmental exposures when assessing radon exposure’s association with lung cancer risk, thereby highlighting (1) the importance of an exposomics framework and (2) that employing ML models may capture the complex interplay between environmental exposures and health, as in the case of indoor radon exposure and lung cancer incidence.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Prescribed fires, smoke exposure, and hospital utilization among heart failure patients

Abstract Background Prescribed fires often have ecological benefits, but their environmental health risks have been infrequently studied. We investigated associations between residing near a prescribed fire, wildfire smoke exposure, and heart failure (HF) patients’ hospital utilization. Methods We used electronic health records from January 2014 to December 2016 in a North Carolina hospital-based cohort to determine HF diagnoses, primary residence, and hospital utilization. Using a cross-sectional study design, we associated the prescribed fire occurrences within 1, 2, and 5 km of the patients’ primary residence with the number of hospital visits and 7- and 30-day readmissions. To compare prescribed fire associations with those observed for wildfire smoke, we also associated zip code-level smoke density data designed to capture wildfire smoke emissions with hospital utilization amongst HF patients. Quasi-Poisson regression models were used for the number of hospital visits, while zero-inflated Poisson regression models were used for readmissions. All models were adjusted for age, sex, race, and neighborhood socioeconomic status and included an offset for follow-up time. The results are the percent change and the 95% confidence interval (CI). Results Associations between prescribed fire occurrences and hospital visits were generally null, with the few associations observed being with prescribed fires within 5 and 2 km of the primary residence in the negative direction but not the more restrictive 1 km radius. However, exposure to medium or heavy smoke (primarily from wildfires) at the zip code level was associated with both 7-day (8.5% increase; 95% CI = 1.5%, 16.0%) and 30-day readmissions (5.4%; 95% CI = 2.3%, 8.5%), and to a lesser degree, hospital visits (1.5%; 95% CI: 0.0%, 3.0%) matching previous studies. Conclusions Area-level smoke exposure driven by wildfires is positively associated with hospital utilization but not proximity to prescribed fires.

Raab, Henry↗

Zero-Truncated Poisson Tensor Decomposition for Sparse Count Data

We propose a novel statistical inference paradigm for zero-inflated multiway count data that dispenses with the need to distinguish between true and false zero counts. Our approach ignores all zero entries and applies zero-truncated Poisson regression on the positive counts. Inference is accomplished via tensor completion that imposes low-rank structure on the Poisson parameter space. Our main result shows that an $\textit{N}$-way rank-R parametric tensor 𝓜 ϵ (0, ∞) $I$Χ∙∙∙Χ$I$ generating Poisson observations can be accurately estimated from approximately $IR^2 \text{log}^2_2(I)$ non-zero counts for a nonnegative canonical polyadic decomposition. Several numerical experiments are presented demonstrating that our zero-truncated paradigm is comparable to the ideal scenario where the locations of false zero counts are known $\textit{a priori}$.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tensor Decompositions for Count Data that Leverage Stochastic and Deterministic Optimization

There is growing interest to extend low-rank matrix decompositions to multi-way arrays, or tensors. One fundamental low-rank tensor decomposition is the canonical polyadic decomposition (CPD). The challenge of fitting a low-rank, nonnegative CPD model to Poisson-distributed count data is of particular interest. Several popular algorithms use local search methods to approximate the global maximum likelihood estimator from local minima. Simultaneously, a recent trend in theoretical computer science and numerical linear algebra leverages randomization to solve very large, hard problems. The typical approach is to use randomization for a fast approximation and determinism for refinement to yield effective algorithms with theoretical guarantees. Two popular algorithms for Poisson CPD reflect that emergent dichotomy: CP Alternating Poisson Regression is a deterministic algorithm and Generalized Canonical Polyadic decomposition makes use of stochastic algorithms in several variants. This work extends recent work to develop two new methods that leverage randomized and deterministic algorithms for improved accuracy and performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tensor decompositions for count data that leverage stochastic and deterministic optimization

There is growing interest to extend low-rank matrix decompositions to multi-way arrays, or tensors. One fundamental low-rank tensor decomposition is the canonical polyadic decomposition (CPD). The challenge of fitting a low-rank, nonnegative CPD model to Poisson-distributed count data is of particular interest. Several popular algorithms use local search methods to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the Poisson CPD model. Here, this work presents two new algorithms that extend state-of-the-art local methods for Poisson CPD. Hybrid GCP-CPAPR combines Generalized Canonical Decomposition (GCP) with stochastic optimization and CP Alternating Poisson Regression (CPAPR), a deterministic algorithm, to increase the probability of converging to the MLE over either method used alone. Restarted CPAPR with SVDrop uses a heuristic based on the singular values of the CPD model unfoldings to identify convergence toward optimizers that are not the MLE and restarts within the feasible domain of the optimization problem, thus reducing overall computational cost when using a multi-start strategy. We provide empirical evidence that indicates our approaches outperform existing methods with respect to converging to the Poisson CPD MLE.

CPAPR↗

Associations between cumulative environmental quality and ten selected birth defects in Texas

Abstract Background Causes of most birth defects are largely unknown. Genetics, maternal factors (e.g., age, smoking) and environmental exposures have all been linked to some birth defects, including neural tube, oral cleft, limb reduction, and gastroschisis; however, the contribution of cumulative exposures across several environmental domains in association with these defects is not well understood. Methods The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) and its domains (air, water, land, sociodemographic, built) were used to estimate county‐level cumulative environmental exposures from 2006–2010 and matched to birth defects identified from Texas Birth Defects Registry and live birth records from births in years 2007–2010 ( N = 1,610,709). Poisson regression models estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between 10 birth defects and the EQI. Results We observed some positive associations between worst environmental quality and neural tube, anencephaly, spina bifida, oral cleft, cleft palate, cleft lip with and without cleft palate, and gastroschisis [PR range: 1.12–1.55], but near null associations with limb reduction defects. Among domain specific results, we observed the strongest positive associations with the sociodemographic domain across birth defects but varied positive associations among the air and water domains, and negative or null associations with the land and built domains. Overall, few exposure‐response patterns were evident. Conclusions Our results highlight the complexities of cumulative, simultaneous environmental exposures in the prevalence rates of 10 selected birth defects. We were able to explore the impact of overall and domain specific environmental quality on birth defects and identify potential domain specific drivers of these associations.

Krajewski, Alison K.↗

Misclassification of primary liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors

Primary liver cancer is difficult to diagnose accurately at death, due to metastases from nearby organs and to concomitant diseases, such as chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Trends in diagnostic accuracy could affect radiation risk estimates for incident liver cancer by altering background rates or by impacting risk modification by sex and age. We quantified the potential impact of death‐certificate inaccuracies on radiation risk estimates for liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors. True‐positive and false‐negative rates were obtained from a previous study that compared death‐certificate causes of death with those based on pathological review, from 1958 to 1987. We assumed various scenarios for misclassification rates after 1987. We obtained estimated true positives and estimated false negatives by stratified sampling from binomial distributions with probabilities given by the true‐positive and false‐negative rates, respectively. Poisson regression methods were applied to highly stratified person‐year tables of corrected case counts and accrued person years. During the study period (1958–2009), there were 1,885 cases of liver cancer, which included 383 death‐certificate‐only (DCO) cases; 1,283 cases with chronic liver disease as the underlying cause of death; and 150 DCO cases of pancreatic cancer among 105,444 study participants. Across the range of scenarios considered, radiation risk estimates based on corrected case counts were attenuated, on average, by 13–30%. Our results indicated that radiation risk estimates for liver cancer were potentially sensitive to death‐certificate inaccuracies. Additional data are needed to inform misclassification rates in recent years.

French, Benjamin↗

Mortality among individuals exposed to atomic bomb radiation in utero: 1950–2012

We examined the mortality risks among 2463 individuals who were exposed in utero to atomic bomb radiation in Hiroshima or Nagasaki in August 1945 and were followed from October 1950 through 2012. Individual estimates of mother’s weighted absorbed uterine dose (DS02R1) were used. Poisson regression method was used to estimate the radiation-associated excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for cause-specific mortality. Head size, birth weight, and parents’ survival status were evaluated as potential mediators of radiation effect. There were 339 deaths (216 males and 123 females) including deaths from solid cancer (n = 137), lymphohematopoietic cancer (n = 8), noncancer disease (n = 134), external cause (n = 56), and unknown cause (n = 4). Among males, the unadjusted ERR/Gy (95% CI) was increased for noncancer disease mortality (1.22, 0.10–3.14), but not for solid cancer mortality (-0.18,< -0.77–0.95); the unadjusted ERR/Gy for external cause mortality was not statistically significant (0.28, < -0.60–2.36). Among females, the unadjusted ERRs/Gy were increased for solid cancer (2.24, 0.44–5.58), noncancer (2.86, 0.56–7.64), and external cause mortality (2.57, 0.20–9.19). The ERRs/Gy adjusted for potential mediators did not change appreciably for solid cancer mortality, but decreased notably for noncancer mortality (0.39, < -0.43–1.91 for males; 1.48, - 0.046–4.55 for females) and external cause mortality (0.10, < -0.57–1.96 for males; 1.38, < -0.46–5.95 for females). In conclusion, antenatal radiation exposure is a consistent risk factor for increased solid cancer mortality among females, but not among males. The effect of exposure to atomic bomb radiation on noncancer disease and external cause mortality among individuals exposed in utero was mediated through small head size, low birth weight, and parental loss.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗

HIV drug resistance during antiretroviral therapy scale-up in Uganda, 2012–19: a population-based, longitudinal study

Background With scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, increasing pretreatment HIV drug resistance has been reported; however, the broader effect of ART expansion on population-level resistance patterns remains insufficiently quantified. We aimed to estimate the longitudinal prevalence of drug resistance and resistance-conferring mutations. Methods This study used data collected as part of the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), an open population-based census and cohort study conducted in southern Uganda. At each survey round, residents aged 15–49 years are invited to participate and receive a structured questionnaire that obtains sociodemographic, behavioural, and health information, including self-reported past and current ART use. Voluntary HIV testing is conducted using a rapid test algorithm and a venous blood sample. People with HIV provide samples for viral load quantification and deep sequencing. We analysed RCCS survey, HIV viral load, and deep sequencing (which was used to predict resistance) data from five survey rounds. The key outcomes were the population prevalence of viraemic people with HIV with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), protease inhibitor, or multiclass resistance among all participants (regardless of HIV serostatus) in the 2015 and 2017 surveys. Prevalence of class-specific resistance and resistance-conferring substitutions were estimated using robust log-Poisson regression. Findings Between Aug 10, 2011, and Nov 4, 2020, there were 43 361 participants in the RCCS and 7923 (18·27%) people with HIV. Over five survey rounds, 93 622 participant visits occurred, among which 17 460 (18·65%) were from people with HIV. Over the analysis period, the median age of study participants remained similar (28 years [22–35] in 2012 and 29 years [21–38] in 2019). Sufficient data were available to reliably genotype 4072 (90·03%) of 4523 participant visits from 3407 people with HIV for at least one drug. Overall population prevalence of resistance contributed by viraemic pretreatment people with HIV decreased between 2012 and 2017 from 0·56% (95% CI 0·42–0·75) to 0·25% (0·18–0·33) for NNRTI and from 0·24% (0·15–0·37) to 0·05% (0·02–0·10) for NRTI (prevalence ratio 0·44 [0·29–0·68] for NNRTI and 0·21 [0·09–0·47] for NRTI). Between 2012 and 2017, NNRTI resistance among viraemic pretreatment people with HIV increased from 4·86% (3·69–6·42) to 9·61% (7·27–12·7; prevalence ratio 1·98 [1·34–2·91]). The prevalence of NNRTI and NRTI resistance was substantially higher among viraemic treatment-experienced people with HIV (51·49% [46·24–57·34] for NNRTI and 36·46% [30·06–44·22] for NRTI in 2017) than among pretreatment people with HIV. NNRTI and NRTI resistance was predominantly attributable to rtK103N and rtM184V. inT97A was observed at a similar prevalence among viraemic treatment-experienced (9·96% [6·41–15·48]) and viraemic pretreatment (10·56% [8·01–13·93]) people with HIV; no major dolutegravir resistance mutations were observed. Interpretation Despite rising NNRTI resistance among pretreatment people with HIV, overall population prevalence of pretreatment HIV drug-resistant viraemia decreased due to increasing ART uptake and viral suppression. This finding underscores the crucial role of achieving and maintaining high ART coverage in reducing transmission of drug-resistant HIV. The high prevalence of mutations conferring resistance to components of first-line ART regimens among viraemic people with HIV is potentially concerning. Funding National Institutes of Health, Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Recent evolution of risk analyses in atomic bomb survivor studies: new methods and applications

Abstract Several decades ago a dramatic leap forward occurred in the development and application of statistical methods for modeling radiation risk at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF). Poisson regression analysis for grouped person-year cohort data and the linear excess relative risk model were introduced, and subsequently a devoted software system, Epicure® (https://www.hirosoft.com), was developed by researchers at RERF and at the U.S. National Cancer Institute. Numerous advancements in understanding radiation effects on humans were made possible with these methods, which are still the state-of-the-art for risk assessment at RERF and have remained part of the standard toolbox for radiation—and other environmental—epidemiological studies worldwide. Nevertheless, as our understanding of radiation risk has increased, so have the breadth and depth of questions that require answers based on emerging data that are not amenable to these conventional methods. This overview briefly recounts the conventional methods and then describes our recent diversification into the use or development of new statistical approaches to meet the challenges of burgeoning biological data and emerging mechanistic information. We briefly discuss the development and application of new methods, current and planned, that are part of the RERF Statistics Department’s role in supporting institution-wide research, especially in our collaborations involving the Life Span Study, Adult Health Study, and First-generation Offspring Clinical Study. Some approaches to modeling and assessing radiation risk with newer methods mentioned herein have already been published, while some are still in development or are only beginning at the proposal stage.

Oncology↗

Excess deaths reveal the true spatial, temporal and demographic impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Ecuador

Accepted Background In early 2020, Ecuador reported one of the highest surges of per capita deaths across the globe. Methods We collected a comprehensive dataset containing individual death records between 2015 and 2020, from the Ecuadorian National Institute of Statistics and Census and the Ecuadorian Ministry of Government. We computed the number of excess deaths across time, geographical locations and demographic groups using Poisson regression methods. Results Between 1 January and 23 September 2020, the number of excess deaths in Ecuador was 36 402 [95% confidence interval (CI): 35 762–36 827] or 208 per 100 000 people, which is 171% of the expected deaths in that period in a typical year. Only 20% of the excess deaths are attributable to confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Strikingly, in provinces that were most affected by COVID-19 such as Guayas and Santa Elena, the all-cause deaths are more than double the expected number of deaths that would have occurred in a normal year. The extent of excess deaths in men is higher than in women, and the number of excess deaths increases with age. Indigenous populations had the highest level of excess deaths among all ethnic groups. Conclusions Overall, the exceptionally high level of excess deaths in Ecuador highlights the enormous burden and heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on mortality, especially in older age groups and Indigenous populations in Ecuador, which was not fully revealed by COVID-19 death counts. Together with the limited testing in Ecuador, our results suggest that the majority of the excess deaths were likely to be undocumented COVID-19 deaths.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reproductive intentions among HIV-negative gay and bisexual men initiating pre-exposure prophylaxis in the Sustainable Health Center Implementation pre-exposure prophylaxis pilot study, 2014–2016

Introduction We assessed reproductive intentions and associated characteristics among men enrolled in the Sustainable Health Center Implementation pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) Pilot (SHIPP) Study. Methods We analyzed baseline data from 1275 men who self-identified as gay or bisexual and participated in the SHIPP study. SHIPP was a cohort study of PrEP implementation in five community health centers in Chicago, Jackson, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. conducted from 2014 to 2016. Participants completed audio computer-assisted self-interviews querying intentions to have a child in the future. We estimated the association between participants’ reproductive intentions and their characteristics using Poisson regression models. Results Approximately 47% of participants indicated their intentions to have a child. Black/non-Hispanic (aPR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.10–1.78) and other/non-Hispanic participants (aPR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.01–1.93) were more likely to report intentions to have a child than white/non-Hispanic participants. Participants were less likely to report intentions to have children as age increased (18–29 years, reference group; 30–39 years, aPR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.64–0.99; 40–49 years, aPR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.33–0.72; 50+ years, aPR = 0.07, 95% CI: 0.02–0.21). Conclusions Clinicians offering PrEP to black and other/non-Hispanic gay and bisexual men should assess their reproductive intentions as family-planning counseling may be an opportunity to introduce PrEP to HIV-negative gay and bisexual men.

Immunology↗

Hip Abductor Strength Asymmetry: Relationship to Upper Extremity Injury in Professional Baseball Players

Background: Hip strength is an important factor for control of the lumbo-pelvic-hip complex. Deficits in hip strength may affect throwing performance and contribute to upper extremity injuries. Hypothesis: Deficits in hip abduction isometric strength would be greater in those who sustained an upper extremity injury and hip strength would predict injury incidence. Study Design: Prospective cohort study. Level of Evidence: Level 3. Methods: Minor League baseball players (n = 188, age = 21.5 ± 2.2 years; n = 98 pitchers; n = 90 position players) volunteered. Hip abduction isometric strength was assessed bilaterally with a handheld dynamometer in side-lying position, expressed as torque using leg length (N·m). Hip abduction strength asymmetry was represented by [(trail leg/lead leg) × 100]. Overuse or nontraumatic throwing arm injuries were prospectively tracked. Poisson regression models were used to estimate relative risk ratios associated with hip asymmetry; confounders, including history of prior overuse injury in the past year, were included. Results: Hip abduction asymmetry ranged from 0.05% to 57.5%. During the first 2 months of the season, 18 players (n = 12 pitchers) sustained an upper extremity injury. In pitchers, for every 5% increase in hip abduction asymmetry, there was a 1.24 increased risk of sustaining a shoulder or elbow injury. No relationship between hip abduction strength and injury was observed for position players. Conclusion: Hip abduction asymmetry in pitchers was related to subsequent upper extremity injuries. The observed risk ratio indicates that hip abduction asymmetry may contribute a significant but small increased risk of injury. Clinical Relevance: Hip abduction muscle deficits may affect pitching mechanics and increase arm stress. Addressing hip asymmetry deficits that exceed 5% may be beneficial in reducing upper extremity injury rates in pitchers.

Sport Sciences↗

Sociodemographic effects on pandemic fatigue are multifaceted and context-specific: A longitudinal analysis of physical distancing adherence

Pandemic fatigue emerged early during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains a concern as new variants emerge and ongoing public health measures are needed to control them. A wide range of factors can affect pandemic fatigue, but empiric research indicating which may be most important to adherence in specific populations is lacking. We conducted a longitudinal study of changes in physical distancing in two cohorts: adults living with children <18 years and adults ≥50 years old. Six types of non-work, non-household contacts were ascertained at six times from April to October 2020. We used generalized estimating equations Poisson regression to estimate the one-week change in contact rate and how this differed based on sociodemographic characteristics. The rate of all contact types increased during the middle of the study period and decreased toward the end. Changes in contact rates over time differed according to several sociodemographic characteristics, including age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, household composition, and access to transportation. Furthermore, the factors influencing the rate of change in contact rates differed by the type or setting of the contact, for example contacts as a result of visiting another person’s home versus during a retail outing. These results provide evidence for potential mechanisms by which pandemic fatigue has resulted in lower physical distancing adherence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗