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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Estimating Spatially-distributed Surface Fluxes in a Semi-arid Great Basin Desert Using Landsat TM Thermal Data

The research described in this chapter demonstrates a method for using Landsat Thematic Mapper data to estimate instantaneous regional-scale energy fluxes over an arid valley in eastern Nevada, U.S.A. Here point-based models of surface energy and water balance fluxes were applied to individual pixels of a Landsat Thematic Mapper scene over the study area. Although the method used to estimate these instantaneous fluxes requires certain assumptions be made about the spatial distribution of several physical parameters, the results from this analysis and modeling suggest that it is possible to scale from point measurements of environmental state variables (i.e., net radiation flux, surface heat flux, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux) to regional estimates of energy exchange to obtain an understanding of the spatial relationship between these fluxes and landscape variables.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

Zhao, Chuang↗

Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink

Abstract Ecosystem connectivity tends to increase the resilience and function of ecosystems responding to stressors. Coastal ecosystems sequester disproportionately large amounts of carbon, but rapid exchange of water, nutrients, and sediment makes them vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Individual components of the coastal landscape (i.e., marsh, forest, bay) have contrasting responses to sea level rise, making it difficult to forecast the response of the integrated coastal carbon sink. Here we couple a spatially-explicit geomorphic model with a point-based carbon accumulation model, and show that landscape connectivity, in-situ carbon accumulation rates, and the size of the landscape-scale coastal carbon stock all peak at intermediate sea level rise rates despite divergent responses of individual components. Progressive loss of forest biomass under increasing sea level rise leads to a shift from a system dominated by forest biomass carbon towards one dominated by marsh soil carbon that is maintained by substantial recycling of organic carbon between marshes and bays. These results suggest that climate change strengthens connectivity between adjacent coastal ecosystems, but with tradeoffs that include a shift towards more labile carbon, smaller marsh and forest extents, and the accumulation of carbon in portions of the landscape more vulnerable to sea level rise and erosion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wassersplines for Neural Vector Field-Controlled Animation

Much of computer-generated animation is created by manipulating meshes with rigs. While this approach works well for animating articulated objects like animals, it has limited flexibility for animating less structured free-form objects. Here we introduce Wassersplines, a novel trajectory inference method for animating unstructured densities based on recent advances in continuous normalizing flows and optimal transport. The key idea is to train a neurally-parameterized velocity field that represents the motion between keyframes. Trajectories are then computed by advecting keyframes through the velocity field. We solve an additional Wasserstein barycenter interpolation problem to guarantee strict adherence to keyframes. Our tool can stylize trajectories through a variety of PDE-based regularizers to create different visual effects. We demonstrate our tool on various keyframe interpolation problems to produce temporally-coherent animations without meshing or rigging.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) Activity for Continental Shallow Convection

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility recently initiated the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity focused on shallow convection at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory in Oklahoma. LASSO is designed to overcome an oft-shared difficulty of bridging the gap from point-based measurements to scales relevant for model parameterization development, and it provides an approach to add value to observations through modeling. LASSO is envisioned to be useful to modelers, theoreticians, and observationalists needing information relevant to cloud processes. LASSO does so by combining a suite of observations, LES inputs and outputs, diagnostics, and skill scores into data bundles that are freely available, and by simplifying user access to the data to speed scientific inquiry. The combination of relevant observations with observationally constrained LES output provides detail that gives context to the observations by showing physically consistent connections between processes based on the simulated state. A unique approach for LASSO is the generation of a library of cases for days with shallow convection combined with an ensemble of LES for each case. The library enables researchers to move beyond the single-case-study approach typical of LES research. The ensemble members are produced using a selection of different large-scale forcing sources and spatial scales. Since large-scale forcing is one of the most uncertain aspects of generating the LES, the ensemble informs users about potential uncertainty for each date and increases the probability of having an accurate forcing for each case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TRITON

TRITON is a 2D hydraulic, digital elevation model (DEM)-based model that accepts a variety of flow inputs including point-based inflow hydrographs, external boundary conditions, and runoff (i.e., excess rainfall). It provides information of flood maps and temporal evolution of water depth at each grid cell point at user-specified output time. Its unique feature is that TRITON can run on single or multiple CPUs and GPUs, proving to be very flexible in terms of system architecture.

Morales-Hernandez, Mario↗

Impact of Time-Dependent Reactor and Sensor Physics on Core Power Synthesis (Rev.1)

Online synthesis of power distribution is critical in the operation and control of nuclear power reactors to ensure that the core is operating within safety margins and to provide essential knowledge associated with the burnup of the fuel. In light-water reactors, power synthesis is achieved by using some a priori knowledge of the state of the reactor core and updating based on the signals coming from in-core sensors—namely, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs). This report examines the effects of fuel burnup and sensor degradation on the ability to accurately synthesize the power distribution in a pressurized water reactor (PWR), considering the typical low-enriched uranium (LEU, 3%-5% enrichment) fuel cycle as well as the higher enrichment LEU+ (5%-8% enrichment) fuel cycle. Several modeling tools were used to simulate power synthesis based on the responses of SPNDs, with emitters made out of Rh or V. A representative PWR LEU core was modeled using the Polaris/Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) approach. The Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport 6 (MCNP6) code was used as well to calculate response functions between different segments of fuel to individual SPNDs; this is a crucial parameter for power synthesis. The Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) package in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code was used to model the time-dependent isotopic transmutation in the SPND emitters. All these data were fed into a custom code that enacted the point-based iterative method to simulate power synthesis. Developmental work was also performed on high-fidelity SPND models in the GEometry ANd Tracking 4 (Geant4) code, which enables higher-accuracy modeling of the current responses from SPNDs. In this work, five sets of time-dependent power synthesis test cases were conducted. In these test cases, systematic changes in the input conditions enabled an analysis of the effect of (1) slightly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup, (2) highly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup (such that burnup is not included in the a priori assumed distribution), and (3) differences between Rh and V SPNDs in terms of downstream consequences of the transmutation in the emitters and the extended nature of the LEU+ fuel cycle in comparison with LEU. The authors discovered that one may permissibly have slightly inaccurate a priori assumptions of the fuel burnup (such that the level of burnup may be slightly underapproximated or overapproximated by the accumulated burnup in approximately 9.3 full power days), but to not account for burnup at all in the a priori assumptions leads to severe levels of error, approaching 25% at maximum (for LEU). The authors also discovered that V SPNDs are extraordinarily robust in both the LEU and LEU+ fuel cycles considered in this modeling work, whereas Rh SPNDs undergo significant transmutation that can result in large errors in the synthesized power distribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Impact of Time Dependent Reactor and Sensor Physics on Core Power Synthesis

Online synthesis of the power distribution is critical in the operation and control of nuclear power reactors to ensure that the core is operating within safety margins, and to provide essential knowledge associated with the burnup of the fuel. In light water reactors (LWRs), power synthesis is achieved by using some a priori knowledge of the state of the reactor core and updating based on the signals coming from in-core sensors—namely, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs). This report aims to study the effects of fuel burnup and sensor degradation on the ability to accurately synthesize the power distribution in a LWR. Several modeling tools were used to simulate power synthesis based on the responses of SPNDs, with emitters made out of Rh or V. A representative pressurized water reactor low-enriched uranium (LEU) core was modeled using the Polaris/Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) approach. The Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport 6 (MCNP6) code was used, as well, to calculate response functions between different segments of fuel to individual SPNDs; this is a crucial parameter for power synthesis. The Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) package in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code was used to model the time-dependent isotopic transmutation in the SPND emitters. All these data were fed into a custom code that enacted the point-based iterative (PBI) method to simulate power synthesis. Developmental work was also performed on high-fidelity SPND models in the GEometry ANd Tracking 4 (Geant4) code, which enables higher-accuracy modeling of the current responses from SPNDs. In this work, five sets of time-dependent power synthesis test cases were conducted. In these test cases, systematic changes in the input conditions enabled an analysis of the effect of (1) slightly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup, (2) highly inaccurate a priori assumptions with respect to fuel burnup (such that burnup is not included in the a priori assumed distribution), and (3) differences between Rh and V SPNDs in terms of downstream consequences of the transmutation in the emitters. The authors discovered that one may permissibly have slightly inaccurate a priori assumptions of the fuel burnup (such that the level of burnup may be slightly under- or over-approximated by the accumulated burnup in approximately 9.3 full power days), but to not account for burnup at all in the a priori assumption leads to severe levels of error, approaching 25% at maximum. The authors also discovered that V SPNDs are extraordinarily robust in the low-enriched uranium fuel cycle considered in this modeling work, whereas Rh SPNDs undergo significant transmutation that can result in large errors in the synthesized power distribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Intra-hour Solar Irradiance Forecast in Multiple Locations using Deep Transfer Learning

In recent years, solar power system installation imposes several challenges on the operations of local and regional power grids due to the inherent variability of ground-level solar irradiance. This work proposes a novel real-time solar forecast methodology for intra-hour solar irradiance based on deep transfer learning from ground-based sky imager for time horizons ranging from 5-15 min. There are three unique aspects of the proposed methodology: (1) a Deep Learning based algorithm development which is modeled as a classification approach rather than a traditional regression approach; (2) the use of the Transfer Learning technique to show generalization capability, robustness, and portability of baseline model in the newly deployed location where availability of enough data for training is typically scarce, and (3) redefinition of point-based irradiation forecast error estimation technique with a window-based one that is more intuitive and user-friendly. The system is developed using multiple years of irradiance and sky image recording in New Jersey and one-year data from Colorado, USA. The method is validated against ground telemetry from these two locations of diverse geographic and climatic conditions. Results show that the forecasting method proposed in this work is robust and highly accurate (8% MAPE error) for multiple locations deployment.

Deep Learning, Convolution Neural Networks, transf↗

A simulation study of the ability to detect power distribution perturbations in the texas A&M TRIGA reactor with self-powered neutron detectors

Given the variety of ways that nuclear reactor core power may be perturbed, reactor operators and developers are keen on understanding the accuracy and convergence time during which perturbations in reactor power distribution may be synthesized (i.e., inferred) from an array of in-core radiation detectors. A simulation study was conducted as described herein using a highly detailed model of the Texas A&M Training, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics Reactor, in which an array of self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs) was considered for input to the power synthesis methodology. The core power synthesis is conducted using a point-based iterative method with an iterative loop built in to ensure working equation consistency. The forward problem of SPND response to simulated perturbations in reactor power was solved for Gaussian peak-type perturbations in the reactor power distribution. These perturbations varied in variance, amplitude, and core location to assess their impact on synthesis error and to determine the number of iterations required for convergence. A relation between the unique resolvability limit and perturbation width was identified such that the maximum synthesis error increased rapidly when the peak width went beneath this limit (a width approximating half the reactor’s fuel pin-to-pin pitch); this resolvability limit is specific to the SPND configuration and fuel segmentation considered herein. The synthesis error increased linearly with perturbation peak amplitude, whereas the convergence time increased nonlinearly. Perturbations located closer to the center of the core were synthesized more accurately, albeit with a higher number of required iterations. These findings provide a qualitative and quantitative understanding of the accuracy and speed at which different types of spatial power perturbations can be resolved in light-water reactors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Particle trajectory representation learning with masked point modeling

Liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) offer millimeter-scale 3D images of particle trajectories, enabling precision studies of neutrino oscillation, detection of supernova and solar neutrinos, searches for exotic dark matter, and proton decay. Current approaches utilize supervised machine learning models, requiring extensive simulations of particle physics and detector response that can introduce bias. Self-supervised learning (SSL), a machine learning approach that learns useful representations of unlabeled data from the data itself, has significantly advanced how large datasets are utilized for representation learning; however, its potential for applications to sensory data in high precision particle physics experiments remains largely unexplored. We introduce the Point-based liquid argon masked autoencoder (PoLAr-MAE), a self-supervised framework that learns physically meaningful representations directly from unlabeled LArTPC images. PoLAr-MAE achieves remarkable data efficiency for a point-level segmentation task, outperforming fully supervised methods in low data regimes. Linear classifiers on model outputs demonstrate robust performance across multiple downstream tasks. Our results position sensor-level SSL as a practical foundation model strategy for LArTPCs.

Young, Samuel [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)]↗

Multiscale spatial analysis of fracture nodes in two dimensions

Spatial arrangement of fractures as a function of scale is an important component of fracture quantification for inferential and predictive modeling. Available methods that analyze fracture spatial arrangement are based on one-dimensional spacing data; therefore, they are limited to semi-parallel fractures. Such methods cannot be applied to fracture networks in higher dimensions, particularly when fractures have different orientations. Here to characterize fracture arrangements in two dimensions, we propose using Ripley’s K-function, as a method of point pattern analysis, to quantify spatial arrangement of fracture nodes. Fracture nodes, such as barycenters, intersection points, and tips, are point-based representations of fracture locations and connectivity within the fracture network. We introduce formulations for isotropic as well as directional analyses of spatial arrangement. In addition, we derive formulations for edge correction in circular and rectangular study domains. Finally, we demonstrate applications of Ripley’s K-function on two natural fracture datasets. Our proposed method supports quantification and characterization of fracture spatial arrangements that allow practitioners to build representative models of fractures in the subsurface.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Applying Infrared Thermography as a Method for Online Monitoring of Turbine Blade Coolant Flow

As gas turbine engine manufacturers strive to implement condition-based operation and maintenance, there is a need for blade monitoring strategies capable of early fault detection and root-cause determination. Given the importance of blade cooling flows to turbine blade health and longevity, there is a distinct lack of methodologies for coolant flowrate monitoring. The present study addresses this identified opportunity by applying an infrared thermography system on an engine-representative research turbine to generate data-driven models for prediction of blade coolant flowrate. Thermal images were used as inputs to a linear regression and regularization algorithm to relate blade surface temperature distribution with blade coolant flowrate. Additionally, this study investigates how coolant flowrate prediction accuracy is influenced by the number and breadth of diagnostic measurements. Here, the results of this study indicate that a source of high-fidelity training data can be used to predict blade coolant flowrate within about six percent error. Furthermore, identification of prioritized sensor placement supports application of this technique across multiple sensor technologies capable of measuring blade surface temperature in operating gas turbine engines, including spatially resolved and point-based measurement techniques.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Satellite-Based Solar Forecasting Including Maintenance of Computer and Storage Equipment at CSU/CIRA (CRADA Final Report)

The Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) at Colorado State University (CSU) proposes to continue its research partnership with the NREL in Golden, CO. The partnership resonates with the goals outlined in a Memorandum of Understanding between the Department of Energy and the Department of Commerce (with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)) signed in 2011. This CRADA will sustain the research partnership and provide an avenue and resources for ongoing collaborations, including the maintenance of NREL-furnished computer and storage equipment at CSU/CIRA. There is no formal exchange of funds in this CRADA; support above and beyond the in-kind items outlined in this document will come on a best-effort basis and/or in association with formal sponsored-research enabled collaborations. The research conducted under this CRADA continues to work toward enabling and improving short-term solar energy forecasting as developed under previous CIRA/CSU and NREL collaborations, with specific focus on point-based (e.g., solar farm) forecasting on the 1-3 hour timeframe. Under the best-effort actions during the CRADA period, technical maintenance of CIRA's existing satellite-based solar forecasting algorithm ("CIRACast"; Miller et al., 2017) was continued to maintain operability with evolving datasets. These efforts benefit the public by maintaining national capability for point solar forecasting using geostationary observation platforms, and laying the groundwork for future technical improvements as opportunities arise.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assessment of the Impact of Realistic Sensor Physics and the Integration of Ex-Core Sensors on Reactor Power Synthesis

In the work documented in this report, a weighting function–based core power synthesis method was applied to multiple Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) reactor models, which are informed based on simulated self-powered neutron detector (SPND) responses. The weighting function method used has been coined the point-based iterative (PBI) method. The goal of this application is to assess the impact of considering realistic sensor physics in the generation of the simulated SPND outputs as well as to consider how the synthesis is impacted based on the inclusion of ex-core detectors in the model. The NuScale small modular reactor (SMR) and Westinghouse AP1000 pressurized water reactor (PWR) are the models that served as the testbeds for the assessment of realistic sensor physics; this was achieved by using Geant4 SPND models in comparison with analytical models, such that the effect of electron transport in realistic SPND geometries in the Geant4 model can be understood in terms of synthesis error and convergence time. The comparison was considered for fuel burnup–induced perturbations, for a range of sensor string densities and synthesized power distribution axial fidelities. The Texas A&M Testing, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics Reactor (TAMU TRIGA) reactor MCNP model was used to assess the impact of ex-core sensors; this was done by performing synthesis with and without the ex-core detectors and by quantifying the synthesis error and number of iterations associated with Gaussian-type perturbations in many locations in the core. The TAMU TRIGA model was particularly pertinent for this study because of the interest in future experimental tests with SPNDs in this reactor, as well as the ease of modifying the MCNP model to include ex-core detectors with heterogeneously described response functions. Results from the comparison between the Geant4 and analytical SPND models indicate that similar average and maximum synthesis errors were obtained for burnup-induced perturbations in both the NuScale SMR and the AP1000. This was true for a range of sensor string densities and axial fidelities. However, there were marked differences between both the Geant4 and analytically informed models in terms of the iterations required to converge on the synthesized power distribution. Namely, the Geant4-informed models tended to lead to fewer iterations, except for a few sensor–core configurations that had particularly numerous iterations. Results from the ex-core sensor assessment with the TAMU TRIGA model indicate that the inclusion of ex-core sensors drastically reduces the synthesis error of Gaussian-type perturbations close to the edge of the core, and it slightly reduces synthesis errors for perturbations closer to the center of the core. This was achieved with a minimal increase in computational cost—that is, the number of iterations required for convergence. The errors were identified to be in the same location as the perturbation in the core, indicating that the methodology remains robust for unperturbed regions of the core. A secondary result from this study with the TAMU TRIGA was yielded by analysis of the neutron flux levels in the in-core and ex-core sensor locations of the core; these flux levels indicate that SPNDs could be used as both in-core and ex-core sensors, so long as the emitter material is sensitive to thermal neutrons. The results from these studies provide a quantitative understanding of the importance of considering realistic sensor physics and including ex-core sensors to perform accurate and timely power distribution synthesis of a reactor core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Structural stereo matching of Laplacian-of-Gaussian contour segments for 3D perception

The stereo correspondence problem is solved using Laplacian-of-Gaussian zero-crossing contours as a source of primitives for structural stereopsis, as opposed to traditional point-based algorithms. Up to 74 percent matching of candidate zero crossing points are being achieved on 240 x 246 images at small scales and large ranges of disparity, without coarse-to-fine tracking and without precise knowledge of the epipolar geometry. This approach should prove particularly useful in recovering the epipolar geometry automatically for stereo pairs for which it is unavailable a priori. Such situations occur in the extraction of terrain models from stereo aerial photographs.

Boyer, K. L.↗

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Climate impacts↗