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Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at about 3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching about 4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid's diameter at 60 +/- 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 's potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. We cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid Disruption

Legacy of the Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission (ARRM)

NASA’s proposed Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission (ARRM) began with the recognition in a 2010 NASA study that emerging high-power solar electric propulsion technology could be used to rendezvous with, capture, and return an entire, very small (~10,000 kg), near Earth asteroids to the International Space Station. A 2011 workshop by the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) extended the earlier NASA study to asteroid masses of order 500,000 kg by returning them to cislunar space. Subsequent detailed NASA studies in 2013-2014 confirmed the feasibility of this concept. This led to the establishment of the Asteroid Redirect Mission program that consisted of a robotic mission to return multiple tons of asteroid material to cislunar space and a crewed mission to rendezvous with the robotic vehicle, perform two extra vehicular activities (EVAs), collect samples of the asteroid material, and return this material to Earth. Implementation of ARRM got midway through Phase B before being cancelled in April 2017. Although ARRM was cancelled, it has left a near-term legacy of positive impacts to the human spaceflight community, the planetary defense community, the deep space science community, and asteroid mining interests.

John R Brophy

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXIV

The 34th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference was held March 17-21, 2003. Topics included planetary exploration, crater research on Mars, Earth, Moon, and other planets or satellites, imaging techniques and image analysis, age determination, albedo studies, petrographic studies, isotope composition studies, instrument design, sampling methods, landform analysis, asteroids, impact analysis, impact melts, and related research.

Lunar and Planetary Institute

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Asteroids, Meteors, Comets

Session 13 of the Thirty-Fifth Lunar and Planetary Science Conference that took place on Tuesday, March 16, 2004. This session includes reports on asteroids, meteors, and comets. The attached document is a listing of all reports included in this session. The full text documents for each report is available in the Related Records section.

Lunar and Planetary Institute

Organic Inventory - Planetary Protection on the Moon

All spacecraft generate and carry contaminants, i.e., unwanted and potentially harmful material. When a spacecraft lands and operates in vacuum, as onto Earth’s Moon, it introduces contaminants into its environment that may compromise mission science objectives and engineering performance. Contamination may degrade sites of unique value to planetary science or in situ resource utilization. This presentation will identify and compare source terms and transport vectors for contaminants – in particular, organic material – generated by landed spacecraft. An integrated modeling framework for the organic contamination footprint of spacecraft missions will be described and presented.

Planetary Protection

Lunar and Planetary X-Ray Diffraction Program: Progress Report of Research and Instrument Development, July 1964 to March 1965

The Lunar and Planetary X-Ray Diffraction Program consists of three concurrent efforts aimed at rapid development of a first-generation flight-instrument system, evaluation of potential advances in diffractometer components for a possible second-generation instrument, and full investigation of the capabilities and limitations of rock analysis by X-ray diffraction. More complete descriptions of each of these studies are given below; the papers which follow are grouped according to these subjects in Sections II through V.

PETROLOGY

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXVI, Part II

Some topics covered: Implications of internal fragmentation on the structure of comets; Atmospheric excitation of mars polar motion; Dunite viscosity dependence on oxygen fugacity; Cross profile and volume analysis of bahram valles on mars; Calculations of the fluxes of 10-250 kV lunar leakage gamma rays; Alluvian fans on mars; Investigating the sources of the apollo 14 high-Al mare basalts; Relationship of coronae, regional plains and rift zones on venus; and Chemical differentiation and internal structure of europa and callisto.

Lunar and Planetary Science

Reports of Planetary Geology and Geophysics Program, 1984

Topics include outer planets and satellites; asteroids and comets; Venus; lunar origin and solar dynamics; cratering process; planetary interiors, petrology, and geochemistry; volcanic processes; aeolian processes and landforms; fluvial processes; geomorphology; periglacial and permafrost processes; remote sensing and regolith studies; structure, tectonics, and stratigraphy; geological mapping, cartography, and geodesy; and radar applications.

Henry E Holt

Space Telescope Optical Telescope Assembly/Scientific Instruments: Phase B - Preliminary Design and Program Definition Study: Volume 2A - Planetary Camera

Development of the F/48, F/96 Planetary Camera for the Large Space Telescope is discussed. Instrument characteristics, optical design, and CCD camera submodule thermal design are considered along with structural subsystem and thermal control subsystem. Weight, electrical subsystem, and support equipment requirements are also included.

Itek Optical Systems

Twenty-Third Lunar and Planetary Science Conference

Presented here is a collection of papers from the Twenty-Third Lunar and Planetary Science Conference that were chosen for having the greatest potential interest for the general reading public. The presentations avoid jargon and unnecessarily complex terms. Topics covered include electron microscopy studies of a circumstellar rock, the fractal analysis of lava flows, volcanic activity on Venus, the isotopic signature of recent solar wind nitrogen, and the implications of impact crater distribution on Venus.

Source record

NASA Planetary Rover Program

The NASA Planetary Rover Project was initiated in 1989. The emphasis of the work to date has been on development of autonomous navigation technology within the context of a high mobility wheeled vehicle at the JPL and an innovative legged locomotion concept at Carnegie Mellon University. The status and accomplishments of these two efforts are discussed. First, however, background information is given on the three rover types required for the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) whose objective is a manned mission to Mars.

David Lavery

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXVI, Part 2

Topics covered include: Ringwoodite-olivine assemblages in Dhofar L6 melt veins; Amorphization of forsterite grains due to high energy heavy ion irradiation: Implications for grain processing in ISM; Validation of AUTODYN in replicating large-scale planetary impact events; A network of geophysical observatories for mars; Modelling catastrophic floods on the surface of mars; Impact into coarse grained spheres; The diderot meteorite: The second chassignite; Galileo global color mosaics of Io; Ganymede's sulci on global and regional scales; and The cold traps near the south pole of the moon.

Source record

Planning for Execution Monitoring on A Planetary Rover

A planetary rover will be traversing largely unknown and often unknowable terrain. In addition to geometric obstacles such as cliffs, rocks, and holes, it may also have to deal with non-geometric hazards such as soft soil and surface breakthroughs which often cannot be detected until rover is in imminent danger. Therefore, the rover must monitor its progress throughout a traverse, making sure to stay on course and to detect and act on any previously unseen hazards. Its onboard planning system must decide what sensors to monitor, what landmarks to take position readings from, and what actions to take if something should go wrong. The planning systems being developed for the Pathfinder Planetary Rover to perform these execution monitoring tasks are discussed. This system includes a network of planners to perform path planning, expectation generation, path analysis, sensor and reaction selection, and resource allocation.

Erann Gat

Preliminary Study of a Nuclear Rocket System for Manned Planetary Missions

The primary purpose of the NERVA nuclear rocket currently under development Once developed, is to demonstrate the feasibility of nuclear rocket propulsion. Once developed, it may have application in missions such as a manned lunar landing or space station supply. Unfortunately, it is too small for manned interplanetary missions. This being the case, it was decided to examine a second-generation nuclear rocket suitable for manned interplanetary flight in order to get an idea of component characteristics and problem areas. This examination is, in general, based on current technology and includes the graphite reactor concept, a nozzle fabricated from Inconel X tubing, and conventional turbopump blading and bearings. Some of the preliminary results of this examination are reported herein.

John H Povolny

The Real-Time Control of Planetary Rovers Through Behavior Modification

It is not yet clear of what type, and how much, intelligence is needed for a planetary rover to function semi-autonomously on a planetary surface. Current designs assume an advanced AI system that maintains a detailed map of its journeys and the surroundings, and that carefully calculates and tests every move in advance. To achieve these abilities, and because of the limitations of space-qualified electronics, the supporting rover is quite sizable, massing a large fraction of a ton, and requiring technology advances in everything from power to ground operations. An alternative approach is to use a behavior driven control scheme. Recent research has shown that many complex tasks may be achieved by programming a robot with a set of behaviors and activation or deactivating a subset of those behaviors as required by the specific situation in which the robot finds itself. Behavior control requires much less computation than is required by tradition AI planning techniques. The reduced computation requirements allows the entire rover to be scaled down as appropriate (only down-link communications and payload do not scale under these circumstances). The missions that can be handled by the real-time control and operation of a set of small, semi-autonomous, interacting, behavior-controlled planetary rovers are discussed.

David P Miller

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Icy Worlds: Moving and Grooving

Reports from the conference session entitled Icy Worlds: Moving and Grooving, include:Mass Anomalies on Ganymede; Europan Chaos and Lenticulae: A Synthesis of Size, Spacing, and Areal Density Analyses; Thermal and Topographic Tests of Europa Chaos Formation Models; Flexure of Europa s Lithosphere Due to Ridge-Loading; Ridges on Europa: Origin by Incremental Ice-Wedging ; Convergent Boundaries on Europa: a Numerical Approach to Euler Pole Analysis and Its' Implications for Plate Reconstruction; Numerical Simulations of Subsolidus Convection in the Ice Shell of Europa: Implications for the Thermal Evolution and Present State; Effects of Plasticity on Convection in an Ice Shell: Implications for Europa; Non-Newtonian Convection and Compositional Buoyancy: Advances in Modeling Convection and Dome Formation on Europa; Convective Instability in Ice I: Application to Callisto and Ganymede; Crater Size Distributions on Callisto: A Galileo SSI Summary; Neutron Diffraction Studies of Planetary Ices; and H2O2 Synthesis Induced by Irradiation of H2O with Energetic H+ and Ar+ Ions at Various Temperatures.

Source record