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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

The 2016 Perseids

The Perseid meteor shower has been observed since ancient times. One of the most prolific annual showers, the Perseids have also been known to outburst. At least two spacecraft have suffered anomalies potentially caused by meteoroid impacts during Perseid outbursts. Olympus, an ESA telecommunications satellite, was likely impacted by a Perseid meteoroid during the 1993 outburst that ultimately led to the termination of the spacecraft's mission. Landsat-5, an imaging satellite jointly managed by NASA and the USGS, lost gyro stability during the peak of the Perseids in 2009. The Perseid meteor shower is expected to outburst again in 2016. Stream model predictions place the peak activity on the night of August 11-12 (UT) as the Earth passes through several old debris trails from parent comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle. Observing geometry favors Europe at the onset, but increased activity for about half a day means that North America is also well-placed for observations. A call for observations to characterize the stream and constrain numerical models is made. Modeling results, observing geometry, and spacecraft risk during the 2016 Perseids will be discussed.

Moser, D. E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PersEIDS: A Biomedical Decision Support System for Extravehicular Operations Under Significant Communication Latency

Humanity hopes to perform extravehicular activities (EVAs) on the surface of Mars; however, several technical and operational challenges must first be overcome. Foremost among these challenges is managing a significant communication latency between Earth and Mars. Current and historical paradigms of EVA operations have required near-real-time communication between the crewmember(s) and Earth-based mission control. Nextgeneration operational paradigms for supporting deep space exploration will necessitate a distributed decision authority system, including delayed Earth-based mission control, the onplanet extravehicular crewmember(s), and intermediate mission support from intravehicular (IV) crewmember(s) within real-time communication range. This latter group is of particular interest: they must provide operations support without the plentiful resources available to mission control on Earth. Thus, NASA is developing the Personalized EVA Informatics and Decision Support (PersEIDS) software platform. PersEIDS is designed to bolster operator situational awareness and offload operator workload by automatically tracking and projecting consumables usage over an EVA timeline, providing real-time probabilistic safety assessments and recommending alternative EVA timeline(s) when the active timeline is not expected to be completed under consumables limits. The PersEIDS concept of operations, use cases, and models will be presented. A limited version of PersEIDS was demonstrated during a three-day-long study where each day a roughly four-hour-long simulated Martian EVA was performed in virtual reality at the NASA Johnson Space Center. The first day was a control trial without PersEIDS support; the second and third days represented different levels of decision support provided by PersEIDS to the IV crewmember acting as mission control. With PersEIDS support, the IV crewmember was able to manage the mission to completion faster and with more remaining consumables; however, additional testing is required to understand confounding factors, e.g., training bias.

Mars↗
NASA NTRS2016

Spacecraft Risk Posed by the 2016 Perseid Outburst

The Perseids are one of the more prolific annual showers, known for high rates and for producing bright meteors. Outbursts of this shower have been noted in the 1860s, the early 1990s, 2004, and 2009, with the 1993 outburst being especially active (peak ZHR above 300). The 1993 Perseids also affected the space-faring nations, as the launch of the STS-51 mission was delayed by NASA until after the shower maximum due to an inability to predict the shower intensity, and the ESA telecommunications satellite Olympus suffered a mission-ending anomaly attributed to a static discharge caused by a Perseid impact [1]. Rates were again high (peak ZHR around 200) in 2009, when the NASA/USGS imaging satellite Landsat-5 experienced a gyro anomaly just before the shower peak; however in this case, the satellite was recovered and normal operations resumed one week later [2]. It is interesting to note that both spacecraft anomalies were not what is typically expected from meteoroid strikes, i.e., physical damage or an attitude displacement due to transfer of momentum. It would appear that the very fast Perseids (59 km s(sup -1) have a marked ability to produce plasma upon impact, which can then serve as a conductive path for discharge currents. The shower is expected to outburst again in 2016, and we present the results from the MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model [4], which predicts enhanced activity on a level similar to that of 2009 as the Earth passes through several debris trails on the night of August 11-12 (UT). We then compare our results to those of other modelers.

Cooke, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The auroral green line in Perseid spectra near sunspot maximum

Thirty-one spectra photographed during the Perseid showers of 1969 and 1970 are found to exhibit greater ionization and stronger, more frequent appearance of the forbidden oxygen line at 5577 A than Perseid spectra obtained with the same instrument in 1961. Data from 13 Perseid showers indicate a relationship between the frequency of occurrence of the oxygen line and solar activity. In 1969-70, near sunspot maximum, the strength of this auroral green line is greatest near shower maximum, as though the nature of the meteoroids were a function of their distance from the core of the stream, or, alternatively, the strength of the green line were a function of the altitude of the radiant.

Russell, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1980

The luminosity functions of the 1969 Perseid and Orionid meteor showers

Observations of the 1969 Perseid and Orionid meteor showers are presented and used to derive luminosity functions for the 288 Perseids and 56 Orionids detected. Visual counts were performed under very good to excellent seeing conditions at the times of peak activities, and the brightnesses of the meteors were estimated to the nearest magnitude by comparison with the magnitudes of known objects. Maximum likelihood estimates of the power law index of the luminosity function of 1.56 + or - 0.06 for the Perseids and of 1.85 + or - 0.1 for the Orionids are obtained which are lower than the values found by other investigators. Under the assumption that the luminosity of visual meteors is proportional to their mass, the luminosity function power law may also be used to characterize the mass function.

Krisciunas, K.↗
NASA NTRS1987

On the spatial structure of the Perseids meteor stream

The analysis of radar observations of the Perseid meteor stream conducted in an ionospherical laboratory in the period from 1964 to 1981 is presented. The Perseids meteor rates were determined by the fluctuation method. Analysis of their hourly distributions showed that the stream maximum position is different for different years, i.e., the stream nodal position is constantly changing. The results of the analysis are presented and discussed.

Andreev, G. V.↗
NASA NTRS2004

MSFC Stream Model Preliminary Results: Modeling the 1998-2002 Leonid Encounters and the 1993,1994, and 2004 Perseid Encounters

The cometary meteoroid ejection models of Jones (1996) and Crifo (1997) were used to simulate ejection from comets 55P/Tempel-Tuttle during the last 12 revolutions, and the 1862, 1737, and 161 0 apparitions of 1 OSP/Swift-Tuttle. Using cometary ephemerides generated by the JPL HORIZONS Solar System Data and Ephemeris Computation Service, ejection was simulated in 1 hour time steps while the comet was within 2.5 AU of the Sun. Also simulated was ejection occurring at the hour of perihelion passage. An RK4 variable step integrator was then used to integrate meteoroid position and velocity forward in time, accounting for the effects of radiation pressure, Poynting-Robertson drag, and the gravitational forces of the planets, which were computed using JPL's DE406 planetary ephemerides. An impact parameter is computed for each particle approaching the Earth, and the results are compared to observations of the 1998-2002 Leonid showers, and the 1993-1 994 Perseids. A prediction for Earth's encounter with the Perseid stream in 2004 is also presented.

Moser, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing the 2016 Perseid Meteor Shower Outburst

The Perseid meteor shower has been observed for millennia and is known for its visually spectacular meteors and occasional outbursts. Normal activity displays Zenithal Hourly Rates (ZHRs) of approximately100. The Perseids were expected to outburst in 2016, primarily due to particles released during the 1862 and 1479 revolutions of parent Comet Swift-Tuttle. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office predicted the timing, strength and duration of the outburst for spacecraft risk using the MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model [1]. A double peak was predicted, with an outburst displaying a ZHR of 210 +/- 50 at 00:30 UTC Aug 12 (139.5deg Solar Longitude), and a traditional peak ~12 hours later with rates still heightened from the outburst [2]. Video, visual, and radar observations taken worldwide by various entities were used to characterize the shower and compare to predictions.

Blaauw, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing the 2016 Perseid Meteor Shower Outburst

The Perseid meteor shower has been observed for millennia and known for its visually spectacular meteors and occasional outbursts. The Perseids were expected to outburst in 2016, primarily due to particles released during the 1862 and 1479 revolutions of Comet Swift-Tuttle. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office predicted the timing, strength and duration of the outburst for spacecraft risk using the MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model. A double peak was predicted, with an outburst displaying a ZHR of 210 +/- 50 at 00:30 UTC Aug 12, and a traditional peak approximately 12 hours later with rates still heightened from the outburst. Video, visual, and radar observations taken worldwide by various entities were used to characterize the shower and compare to predictions.

Blaauw, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Metal ions and isotopes in sporadic E-layers during the Perseid meteor shower

The electron density and positive-ion composition above Wallops Island were measured on August 12, 1976, about 12 hours after the maximum of the Perseid shower. At launch time, 4.5 MHz was recorded for fbEs, corresponding to an electron density of 2.4 x 10 to the 5th power per cu cm. Electron profile and ion composition measurements confirmed the presence of a sporadic E-layer with two maxima at 101.3 and 105.4 km. The electron density was measured with a pair of boom-mounted probes at fixed potential. The positive ion composition above 77 km was measured with a magnetic mass spectrometer employing a liquid He cryopump. Some of the salient results of the (still incomplete) analysis are discussed.

Herrmann, U.↗
NASA NTRS2004

MSFC Stream Model Preliminary Results: Modeling Recent Leonid and Perseid Encounters

The cometary meteoroid ejection model of Jones and Brown (1996b) was used to simulate ejection from comets 55P/Tempel-Tuttle during the last 12 revolutions, and the last 9 apparitions of 109P/Swift-Tuttle. Using cometary ephemerides generated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory s (JPL) HORIZONS Solar System Data and Ephemeris Computation Service, two independent ejection schemes were simulated. In the first case, ejection was simulated in 1 hour time steps along the comet s orbit while it was within 2.5 AU of the Sun. In the second case, ejection was simulated to occur at the hour the comet reached perihelion. A 4th order variable step-size Runge-Kutta integrator was then used to integrate meteoroid position and velocity forward in time, accounting for the effects of radiation pressure, Poynting-Robertson drag, and the gravitational forces of the planets, which were computed using JPL s DE406 planetary ephemerides. An impact parameter was computed for each particle approaching the Earth to create a flux profile, and the results compared to observations of the 1998 and 1999 Leonid showers, and the 1993 and 2004 Perseids.

Cooke, William J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Decision Support System for Extravehicular Operations Under Significant Communication Latency

Within the next few decades, humanity hopes to perform extravehicular activities (EVAs) on the surface of Mars; however, several technical and operational challenges must first be overcome. Foremost among these challenges is managing a significant two-way communication latency between Earth and Mars. Current and historical paradigms of EVA operations have required near-real-time communication between the crewmember(s) performing an EVA and an Earth-based mission control. Next-generation operational paradigms for supporting deep space exploration will necessitate a distributed decision authority system, including delayed Earth-based mission control, the on-planet extravehicular crewmember(s), and intermediate mission support from intravehicular crewmember(s) within real-time communication range. This latter group is of particular interest: they must provide operations support without the plentiful resources available to mission control on Earth. For this purpose, NASA is developing the Personalized EVA Informatics and Decision Support (PersEIDS) software platform. PersEIDS is designed to bolster operator situational awareness and offload operator workload by automating the tracking and projection of consumables usage over an EVA timeline, providing real-time probabilistic safety assessments of an EVA timeline given consumables constraints, and recommending alternative EVA timeline(s) when the active timeline is not expected to be completed under consumables limits. The PersEIDS concept of operations, use cases, and models will be presented. A limited version of PersEIDS was demonstrated during a three-day-long study where each day a roughly four-hour-long simulated Martian EVA was performed in virtual reality at the NASA Johnson Space Center. The first day was a control trial without PersEIDS support; the second and third days represented different levels of decision support provided by PersEIDS to the intravehicular crewmember acting as mission control. With PersEIDS support, the IV crewmember was able to manage the mission to completion faster and with more remaining consumables; however, additional testing is required to understand confounding factors, e.g. training bias.

Mars↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Decision Support System for Extravehicular Operations Under Significant Communication Latency

Humanity hopes to perform extravehicular activities (EVAs) on the surface of Mars; however, several technical and operational challenges must first be overcome. Foremost among these challenges is managing a significant communication latency between Earth and Mars. Current and historical paradigms of EVA operations have required near-real-time communication between the crewmember(s) and Earth-based mission control. Nextgeneration operational paradigms for supporting deep space exploration will necessitate a distributed decision authority system, including delayed Earth-based mission control, the onplanet extravehicular crewmember(s), and intermediate mission support from intravehicular (IV) crewmember(s) within real-time communication range. This latter group is of particular interest: they must provide operations support without the plentiful resources available to mission control on Earth. Thus, NASA is developing the Personalized EVA Informatics and Decision Support (PersEIDS) software platform. PersEIDS is designed to bolster operator situational awareness and offload operator workload by automatically tracking and projecting consumables usage over an EVA timeline, providing real-time probabilistic safety assessments and recommending alternative EVA timeline(s) when the active timeline is not expected to be completed under consumables limits. The PersEIDS concept of operations, use cases, and models will be presented. A limited version of PersEIDS was demonstrated during a three-day-long study where each day a roughly four-hour-long simulated Martian EVA was performed in virtual reality at the NASA Johnson Space Center. The first day was a control trial without PersEIDS support; the second and third days represented different levels of decision support provided by PersEIDS to the IV crewmember acting as mission control. With PersEIDS support, the IV crewmember was able to manage the mission to completion faster and with more remaining consumables; however, additional testing is required to understand confounding factors, e.g., training bias.

Mars↗
NASA NTRS2011

Constraining the Physical Properties of Meteor Stream Particles by Light Curve Shapes Using the Virtual Meteor Observatory

Different authors have produced models for the physical properties of meteoroids based on the shape of a meteor's light curve, typically from short observing campaigns. We here analyze the height profiles and light curves of approx.200 double-station meteors from the Leonids and Perseids using data from the Virtual Meteor Observatory, to demonstrate that with this web-based meteor database it is possible to analyze very large datasets from different authors in a consistent way. We compute the average heights for begin point, maximum luminosity, and end heights for Perseids and Leonids. We also compute the skew of the light curve, usually called the F-parameter. The results compare well with other author's data. We display the average light curve in a novel way to assess the light curve shape in addition to using the F-parameter. While the Perseids show a peaked light curve, the average Leonid light curve has a more flat peak. This indicates that the particle distribution of Leonid meteors can be described by a Gaussian distribution; the Perseids can be described with a power law. The skew for Leonids is smaller than for Perseids, indicating that the Leonids are more fragile than the Perseids.

Koschny, D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The 2017 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for Earth Orbit

Most meteor showers will display typical activity levels in 2017. Perseid activity is expected to be higher than normal but less than in 2016; rates may reach 80% of the peak ZHR in 2016. Despite this enhancement, the Perseids rank 4th in flux for 0.04-cm-equivalent meteoroids: the Geminids (GEM), Daytime Arietids (ARI), and Southern delta Aquariids (SDA) all produce higher fluxes. Aside from heightened Perseid activity, the 2017 forecast includes a number of changes. In 2016, the Meteoroid Environment Office used 14 years of shower flux data to revisit the activity profiles of meteor showers included in the annual forecast. Both the list of showers and the shape of certain major showers have been revised. The names and three-letter shower codes were updated to match those in the International Astronomical Union (IAU) Meteor Data Center, and a number of defunct or insignificant showers were removed. The most significant of these changes are the increased durations of the Daytime Arietid (ARI) and Geminid (GEM) meteor showers. This document is designed to supplement spacecraft risk assessments that incorporate an annual averaged meteor shower flux (as is the case with all NASA meteor models). Results are presented relative to this baseline and are weighted to a constant kinetic energy. Two showers - the Daytime Arietids (ARI) and the Geminids (GEM) - attain flux levels approaching that of the baseline meteoroid environment for 0.1-cm-equivalent meteoroids. This size is the threshold for structural damage. These two showers, along with the Quadrantids (QUA) and Perseids (PER), exceed the baseline flux for 0.3-cm-equivalent particles, which is near the limit for pressure vessel penetration. Please note, however, that meteor shower fluxes drop dramatically with increasing particle size. As an example, the Arietids contribute a flux of about 5x10(exp -6) meteoroids m(exp -2) hr-1 in the 0.04-cm-equivalent range, but only 1x10(exp -8) meteoroids m(sub -2) hr-1 for the 0.3-cmequivalent and larger size regime. Thus, a PNP risk assessment should use the flux and flux enhancements corresponding to the smallest particle capable of penetrating a component, because the flux at this size will be the dominant contributor to the risk.

Moorhead, Althea↗