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Results for “Parameter Identifiability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Uncertainty Analysis of Runoff Simulations and Parameter Identifiability in the Community Land Model – Evidence from MOPEX Basins

With the emergence of earth system models as important tools for understanding and predicting climate change and implications to mitigation and adaptation, it has become increasingly important to assess the fidelity of the land component within earth system models to capture realistic hydrological processes and their response to the changing climate and quantify the associated uncertainties. This study investigates the sensitivity of runoff simulations to major hydrologic parameters in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4) by integrating CLM4 with a stochastic exploratory sensitivity analysis framework at 20 selected watersheds from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) spanning a wide range of climate and site conditions. We found that for runoff simulations, the most significant parameters are those related to the subsurface runoff parameterizations. Soil texture related parameters and surface runoff parameters are of secondary significance. Moreover, climate and soil conditions play important roles in the parameter sensitivity. In general, site conditions within water-limited hydrologic regimes and with finer soil texture result in stronger sensitivity of output variables, such as runoff and its surface and subsurface components, to the input parameters in CLM4. This study demonstrated the feasibility of parameter inversion for CLM4 using streamflow observations to improve runoff simulations. By ranking the significance of the input parameters, we showed that the parameter set dimensionality could be reduced for CLM4 parameter calibration under different hydrologic and climatic regimes so that the inverse problem is less ill posed.

analysis↗
DOE OSTI2019

Identifying Parameter Space for Robust Stability in Nonlinear Networks: A Microgrid Application

As modern engineering systems grow in complexity, attitudes toward a modular design approach become increasingly more favorable. A key challenge to a modular design approach is the certification of robust stability under uncertainties in the rest of the network. In this paper, we consider the problem of identifying the parametric region, which guarantees stability of the connected module in the robust sense under uncertainties. We derive the conditions under which the robust stability of the connected module is guaranteed for some values of the design parameters, and present a sum-of-squares (SOS) optimization-based algorithm to identify such a parametric region for polynomial systems. Using the example of an inverter-based microgrid, we show how this parametric region changes with variations in the level of uncertainties in the network.

Kundu, Soumya↗
DOE OSTI2023

PINNSTRIPES (Physics-Informed Neural Network SurrogaTe for Rapidly Identifying Parameters in Energy Systems) [SWR-22-12]

Energy systems models typically take the form of complex partial differential equations which make multiple forward calculations prohibitively expensive. Fast and data-efficient construction of surrogate models is of utmost importance for applications that require parameter exploration such as design optimization and Bayesian calibration. In presence of a large number of parameters, surrogate models that capture correct dependencies may be difficult to construct with traditional techniques. The issue is addressed here with the formulation of the surrogate model constructed via Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINN) which capture the dependence with respect to the parameters to estimate, while using a limited amount of data. Since forward evaluations of the surrogate model are cheap, parameter exploration is made inexpensive, even when considering a large number of parameters.

Hassanaly, Malik↗
DOE OSTI2014

Utilizing Soize's Approach to Identify Parameter and Model Uncertainties

Quantifying uncertainty in model parameters is a challenging task for analysts. Soize has derived a method that is able to characterize both model and parameter uncertainty independently. This method is explained with the assumption that some experimental data is available, and is divided into seven steps. Monte Carlo analyses are performed to select the optimal dispersion variable to match the experimental data. Along with the nominal approach, an alternative distribution can be used along with corrections that can be utilized to expand the scope of this method. This method is one of a very few methods that can quantify uncertainty in the model form independently of the input parameters. Two examples are provided to illustrate the methodology, and example code is provided in the Appendix.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are “sparse”. The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Repairing polycrystalline IN 100 using additive manufacturing (CRADA NFE-17-06791 Final Report)

The overall goal of this Manufacturing Demonstration Facility (MDF) technical collaboration project is to extend the use of the laser blown powder additive manufacturing process to enable the repair of polycrystalline high γ' Ni base super alloys, and to qualify the repaired parts for end use. The goal of phase 1 of this project was to evaluate the cracking susceptibility of Inconel 100 samples, and to identify parameters that would yield crack free repair deposits on representative geometries using a surrogate material as a substrate. A detailed design of experiments was performed in conjunction with thermomechanical modeling to determine processing conditions. A set of process parameters were identified which yielded minimal cracking. Further modeling was used to identify the preheat condition necessary to obtain crack free deposits. Following identification of the preheat, a furnace was integrated within the chamber of the blown powder Direct Energy Deposition (DED) system, and deposits were fabricated with on a preheated furnace. The results show that crack free deposits with dimensions 35x15x0.5 mm 3 can be fabricated. With this success obtained in phase 1 the goal of phase 2, if awarded, would be to fabricate the deposit on the actual IN 100 substrates develop heat treatment procedures and qualify the repair procedures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the parameter combinations that matter and on those that do not: data-driven studies of parameter (non)identifiability

Abstract We present a data-driven approach to characterizing nonidentifiability of a model’s parameters and illustrate it through dynamic as well as steady kinetic models. By employing Diffusion Maps and their extensions, we discover the minimal combinations of parameters required to characterize the output behavior of a chemical system: a set of effective parameters for the model. Furthermore, we introduce and use a Conformal Autoencoder Neural Network technique, as well as a kernel-based Jointly Smooth Function technique, to disentangle the redundant parameter combinations that do not affect the output behavior from the ones that do. We discuss the interpretability of our data-driven effective parameters, and demonstrate the utility of the approach both for behavior prediction and parameter estimation. In the latter task, it becomes important to describe level sets in parameter space that are consistent with a particular output behavior. We validate our approach on a model of multisite phosphorylation, where a reduced set of effective parameters (nonlinear combinations of the physical ones) has previously been established analytically.

Evangelou, Nikolaos↗
DOE OSTI2018

Identifying arbitrary parameter zonation using multiple level set functions

In this paper, we extended the analytical level set method [1, 2] for identifying a piece-wisely heterogeneous (zonation) binary system to the case with an arbitrary number of materials with unknown material properties. In the developed level set approach, starting from an initial guess, the material interfaces are propagated through iterations such that the residuals between the simulated and observed state variables (hydraulic head) is minimized. We derived an expression for the propagation velocity of the interface between any two materials, which is related to the permeability contrast between the materials on two sides of the interface, the sensitivity of the head to permeability, and the head residual. We also formulated an expression for updating the permeability of all materials, which is consistent with the steepest descent of the objective function. The developed approach has been demonstrated through many examples, ranging from totally synthetic cases to a case where the flow conditions are representative of a groundwater contaminant site at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. These examples indicate that the level set method can successfully identify zonation structures, even if the number of materials in the model domain is not exactly known in advance. Although the evolution of the material zonation depends on the initial guess field, inverse modeling runs starting with different initial guesses fields may converge to the similar final zonation structure. These examples also suggest that identifying interfaces of spatially distributed heterogeneities is more important than estimating their permeability values.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Derivation of Monitoring Parameters based on the Long-term Safety Assessment - 19529

This paper discusses monitoring in the context of the Swiss geological disposal programme and presents a methodology to identify parameters that would be both useful from the point of view of demonstrating long-term safety and technically feasible to monitor. The methodology also serves as a contribution to the EC project on Development and Demonstration of monitoring strategies and technologies for geological disposal - Modern2020. The methodology consists of the following five steps: - STEP 1: Identify key, safety-relevant parameters, - STEP 2: Consider (without consideration of technical feasibility) whether monitoring of these parameters would be of interest, and set priorities, - STEP 3: Consider the technical practicability of monitoring those parameters identified as being of first and secondary priority, - STEP 4: Identify whether models exist for the evolution of those parameters that can be monitored and whether safety-relevant criteria exist that the parameters should meet, - STEP 5: Assess the overall rationale for monitoring those parameters identified in Steps 1 through 4. Key candidate parameters for monitoring, provisionally identified by applying the methodology and that have associated safety-relevant criteria include: - Temperature in the Opalinus Clay host rock and, - Fluid pressure, also in the Opalinus Clay host rock. A number of other high priority parameters not associated with safety-relevant criteria, as well as parameters with lower priority (with and without associated safety relevant criteria), have also been identified. The methodology, as well as its trial application, are to be considered as first iterations, and are likely to be refined over the forthcoming years as experience is gained. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Approach to fitting parameters and clustering for characterising measured voltage dips based on two-dimensional polarisation ellipses

An alternative approach to characterise real voltage dips is proposed and evaluated in this study. The proposed methodology is based on voltage-space vector solutions, identifying parameters for ellipses trajectories by using the least-squares algorithm applied on a sliding window along the disturbance. The most likely patterns are then estimated through a clustering process based on the k-means algorithm. The objective is to offer an efficient and easily implemented alternative to characterise faults and visualise the most likely instantaneous phase-voltage evolution during events through their corresponding voltage-space vector trajectories. This novel solution minimises the data to be stored but maintains extensive information about the dips including starting and ending transients. The proposed methodology has been applied satisfactorily to real voltage dips obtained from intensive field-measurement campaigns carried out in a Spanish wind power plant up to a time period of several years. A comparison to traditional minimum root mean square-voltage and time-duration classifications is also included in this study.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification and assignment of rotational spectra using artificial neural networks

A method of identifying molecular parameters may include receiving observed transition frequencies, generating transition frequency sets and a spectral parameter sets, training one or more artificial neural networks by analyzing the transition frequency sets and the spectral parameter sets, analyzing the observed transition frequencies using the one or more trained artificial neural networks to predict estimated spectral parameters, and identifying molecular parameters by analyzing the estimated spectral parameters. A molecular parameter identification system may include a rotational spectrometer, a user interface, and a spectrum analysis application that may retrieve observed transition frequencies, identify a Hamiltonian type by a neural network analyzing the observed transition frequencies, select a second trained artificial neural network based on the identified Hamiltonian type, analyze observed transition frequencies using the second artificial neural network to identify estimated spectral parameters, and identify molecular parameters.

Prozuments, Kirills↗
DOE OSTI2020

The 1 H T 1 dispersion curve of fentanyl citrate to identify NQR parameters

We report the 1 H T 1 dispersion curve between 0 and 5 MHz for the synthetic opioid fentanyl citrate (C 28 H 36 N 2 O 8 ). The structures in the curve can be used to estimate the 14 N nuclear quadrupole resonance (NQR) frequencies of the material. Density functional theory predictions of the NQR parameters of several fentanyl citrate compounds are also reported. The predictions for the aniline nitrogen are consistent with structures in the observed T 1 data. To help interpret the fentanyl citrate results the T 1 dispersion curve for the explosive ammonium nitrate is also presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Unsupervised Deep Learning Can Identify Physical Parameters

Parametrizing a problem is one of the biggest obstacles toward the application of physical methods to novel systems. In this research, we show that deep learning methods can be used to accelerate this parametrization process. We use an unsupervised learning algorithm, a variational autoencoder, to extract meaningful physical parameters from unlabeled time-series generated from classical physical systems. For example, given time series data of projectile motion and the instruction to represent the data in a small number of unspecified parameters, the model can discover, without further direction, the concepts of velocity and gravity. Using this method, one can uncover information about the physics of a system, even when the relevant physical parameters are unknown to the experimenter. This has obvious applications to novel systems in which parameters are not known a priori. Moreover, errors in the reconstruction of the parameters can be used to reveal meaningful info rmation about state transitions, which can be conceptualized as a generalization of similar unsupervised learning methods used to detect phase transitions in the thermodynamics of particle systems to systems that evolve in the time domain. While our proof-of-concept applications are modest, this method shows potential for making progress in a wide array of problems both in physics and outside of the field.

Veillette, John↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and optimization of precipitating hydrometeor parameters for winter precipitation in a cloud microphysics scheme

The precipitating hydrometeor parameters used in cloud microphysics schemes carry inherent uncertainties. The quantification of these uncertainties, together with parameter optimization, can significantly improve precipitation forecasts. This study investigates the effects of 13 parameters in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme, which define the hydrometeor characteristics such as fall velocity–diameter and mass–diameter relationships, as well as the shape parameter of the drop size distribution for precipitating particles such as rain, snow, and graupel on simulated winter precipitation. A comparison between the model's pre-defined parameters and observations from the International Collaborative Experiments for the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018) field campaign reveals that the fall velocity–diameter relationship for rain, the mass–diameter relationships for snow and graupel, and the shape parameters for all precipitating particles in the WDM6 scheme deviate from the median values observed by the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD). To quantify parameter sensitivities, a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of 256 simulations was conducted within parameter ranges constrained by 2DVD observations for three winter precipitation cases. Bayesian optimization was then applied to identify parameter sets that minimized the root mean square error (RMSE) for each case, achieving reductions of up to 30.2 %. These results demonstrate that ensemble-based uncertainty quantification and parameter optimization can help identify key parameters and provide a pathway to improving precipitation simulation performance. In addition, measurement sites can be strategically selected based on regions that show high sensitivity to variations in hydrometeor characteristic parameters.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Acoustic Tomography of the Atmosphere: A Large-Eddy Simulation Sensitivity Study

Accurate measurement of atmospheric turbulent fluctuations is critical for understanding environmental dynamics and improving models in applications such as wind energy. Advanced remote sensing technologies are essential for capturing instantaneous velocity and temperature fluctuations. Acoustic tomography (AT) offers a promising approach that utilizes sound travel times between an array of transducers to reconstruct turbulence fields. This study presents a systematic evaluation of the time-dependent stochastic inversion (TDSI) algorithm for AT using synthetic travel-time measurements derived from large-eddy simulation (LES) fields under both neutral and convective atmospheric boundary-layer conditions. Unlike prior work that relied on field observations or idealized fields, the LES framework provides a ground-truth atmospheric state, enabling quantitative assessment of TDSI retrieval reliability, sensitivity to travel-time measurement noise, and dependence on covariance model parameters and temporal data integration. A detailed sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the best-fit model parameters, identify the tolerance thresholds for parameter mismatch, and establish a maximum spatial resolution. The TDSI algorithm successfully reconstructed large-scale velocity and temperature fluctuations with root mean square errors ( RMSE s) below 0.35 m/s and 0.12 K, respectively. Spectral analysis established a maximum spatial resolution of approximately 1.4 m, and reconstructions remained robust for travel-time measurement uncertainties up to 0.002 s. These findings provide critical insights into the operational limits of TDSI and inform future applications of AT for atmospheric turbulence characterization and system design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Online Parameter Estimation Methods for Adaptive Cruise Control Systems

Modeling Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) vehicles enables the understanding of the impact of these vehicles on traffic flow. In this work, two online methods are used to provide real time system identification of ACC enabled vehicles. The first technique is a recursive least squares (RLS) approach, while the second method solves a nonlinear joint state and parameter estimation problem via particle filtering (PF). We provide a parameter identifiability analysis for both methods to analytically show that the model parameters are not identifiable using equilibrium driving. The accuracy and computational runtime of the online methods are compared to a commonly used offline simulation-based optimization (i.e., batch optimization) approach. The methods are tested on synthetic data as well as on empirical data collected directly from a 2019 model year ACC vehicle using data from sensors that are part of the stock ACC system. The online methods are scalable and provide comparable accuracy to the batch method. RLS runs in real time and is two orders of magnitude faster than the batch method for modest sized (e.g., 15 min) datasets. The particle filter also runs in real- time, and is also suitable in streaming applications in which the datasets can grow arbitrarily large.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗