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DOE OSTI2024

Standards Guidance for Electric Two- and Three-Wheelers and Charging Infrastructure in Pakistan

Electric two-wheelers (E2Ws) and electric three-wheelers (E3Ws) have reached upfront cost price parity as compared to their conventional counterparts in many markets (IEA 2022). Therefore, Pakistan has embraced E2Ws and E3Ws in their National Electric Vehicle Policy (Government of Pakistan 2019b). Specifically, this policy targets 50% of new two- and three-wheeler sales to be electric by 2030. In the short term, this policy targets five times as many E2Ws and E3Ws as cars, vans, and pickups. In order to meet these goals in a safe, reliable, and efficient manner, Pakistan needs to develop and implement standards related to E2W and E3W vehicles and charging infrastructure, including battery swap stations. Without standards, E2Ws and E3Ws can be dangerous, unreliable, incompatible with charging stations, or diminish the grid’s electricity quality (Goel and Singh 2019; Sasidharan 2020). Fortunately, there are several global and local efforts to establish standards that Pakistan can learn from or adopt. This document explains the purpose and process of standards development and introduces the international standards development organizations involved and relevant classification and testing systems. It then introduces and lists many standards related to the vehicles, batteries, and charging equipment so that Pakistan can adopt or reference these standards when developing its own.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Genomic reconstruction of Bacillus anthracis from complex environmental samples enables high-throughput identification and lineage assignment in Pakistan

Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a highly virulent zoonotic pathogen primarily affecting domesticated and wild herbivores. Human exposure to B. anthracis is primarily through contact with infected animals or contaminated animal products. In Pakistan, where livestock vaccines are largely unavailable and infected carcasses are often disposed of improperly, the risk to humans, wildlife and livestock is significant. Currently, the diagnosis of anthrax infections and outbreak tracing necessitates the isolation and culturing of B. anthracis, a process that requires BSL-3 facilities. In this study, we show that positive identification, genome reconstruction and lineage assignment can be accomplished using bioinformatic analysis of DNA extracted directly from environmental samples that would otherwise provide the starting material for isolation and culturing. This approach does not require laboratory target enrichment as is necessary for other pathogens, due in part to the extremely high bacterial load in the bloodstream in the deceased animals. Using these methods, we greatly expand the knowledge of endemic B. anthracis in Pakistan. We provide the first reference B. anthracis genomes from Pakistan since the 1970s and identify A.Br.014 Aust94 as a minor circulating sublineage alongside the dominant A.Br.047 Vollum. Future work will focus on the limits of detection and will determine if this bioinformatic method can be expanded more broadly for B. anthracis or other pathogens to replace typical culture-based methods.

A.Br.047 Vollum↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effectiveness of Electric Vehicle Policies and Implications for Pakistan

This report explores evidence from several key countries regarding the impacts to electric vehicle (EV) market penetration from financial incentives, road access policies, EV mandates, fuel taxes, discounted electricity rates, charging infrastructure, and government investment in the domestic automotive industry. It reviews EV promotional policies in countries that have demonstrated success deploying EVs, focusing on Norway, China, the United States, India, and Korea. It also provides anecdotal examples from select ASEAN countries trying to promote domestic auto industry EV activity, such as Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam. It provides applicability to policy efforts for growing the EV industry in Pakistan.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Endemic Seroprevalence and Farmer Control Measures of Anthrax Among Ruminate Animals in Pakistan

Anthrax, caused by Bacillus anthracis (B. anthracis), is an important zoonotic disease of livestock that poses a threat to public safety. The present study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of Bacillus anthracis in sheep and cattle in endemic areas (Punjab and Balochistan provinces) of Pakistan by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Crosssectional survey was also done to assess the control measures of the farmers. Out of 401 serum samples from sheep and cattle, a total of 68 (16.9%) samples were seropositive for anti-PA antibodies; seroprevalence of B. anthracis in sheep and cattle was 22.11% (48/217) and 10.86% (20/184), respectively. Seroprevalence was significantly higher (p<0.05) in Baluchistan province (33.3%, 44/132) compared to Punjab province (8.92%, 24/269). Most farmers (65.90%, 29/44) were not disposing carcasses as recommended. Around 77.28%, 17/22 of the veterinary officials reported the nonavailability of vaccine against anthrax and 63.63% (14/22) stated the lack of cold chain for the vaccine storage and transportation. We concluded that seroprevalence of B. anthracis in unvaccinated sheep and cattle is evidence that the pathogen is circulating in Baluchistan and Punjab provinces. So must applied an active surveillance and, strengthened veterinary practices vaccination programs to control anthrax outbreaks in endemic areas.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling

Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. Furthermore, we also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Additionally, such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fossil fuel CO 2 emissions over metropolitan areas from space: A multi-model analysis of OCO-2 data over Lahore, Pakistan

Urban areas, where gathering more than 55% of the global population, alone contributed to more than 70% of anthropogenic fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO 2ff ) emissions. Accurate quantification of CO 2ff emissions from urban areas is of great importance to the formulation of global warming mitigation policies to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Satellite-based inversion techniques are unique among “top-down” approaches, potentially allowing us to track CO 2ff emission changes over cities globally. However, its accuracy is still limited by incomplete background information, cloud blockages, aerosol contaminations, and uncertainties in models and emission inventories used as prior. To evaluate the current potential of space-based quantification techniques, we present the first attempt to monitor long-term changes in CO 2ff emissions based on the OCO-2 satellite measurements of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO 2 (X CO2 ) over a fast-growing Asian metropolitan area: Lahore, Pakistan. We first examined the OCO-2 data availability at global scale. About 17% of OCO-2 soundings are marked as high-quality soundings by quality flags over the global 70 most populated cities over the period 2014-2019. Cloud blockage and aerosol contamination are the two main causes of data loss. As an attempt to recover additional soundings, we evaluated the effectiveness of OCO-2 quality flags at the city level by comparing three flux quantification methods (WRF-Chem, X-STILT, and flux cross-sectional integration method), all based on the Open-Data Inventory for Anthropogenic Carbon dioxide (ODIAC) product. The satellite/bottom-up emissions (OCO-2/ODIAC) ratios of the high-quality tracks better converged across the three methods compared to the all-data tracks with reduced uncertainties in emissions. Thus, OCO-2 quality flags are useful filters of low-quality OCO-2 retrievals at local scales, although originally designed for global-scale studies. All three methods consistently suggested that the ratio medians are greater than 1, which implies that the ODIAC slightly underestimated the CO2ff emissions over Lahore. Additionally, our estimation of the a posteriori CO2ff emission trend was about 734 kt C/year (i.e., an annual 6.7% increase). 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the Mann-Kendall upward trend test showed that less than 10% prior uncertainty for 8 tracks (or less than 20% prior uncertainty for 25 tracks) is required to achieve a greater-than-50% trend significant possibility at a 95% confidence level. It implies that the trend is driven by the prior and not due to the assimilation of OCO-2 retrievals. The key to improving the role of satellite data in CO 2 emission trend detection lies in collecting more frequent high-quality tracks near metropolitan areas to achieve significant constraints from X CO2 retrievals.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region’s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electrification of Pakistan's Transport System: Modeling Electric Vehicle Penetration and Energy Supply Chain Impacts

Initial analysis of the National Electric Vehicle Policy (NEVP) of Pakistan was undertaken by an integrated energy planning team from November 2019 through August 2020. This technical reference document seeks to present the background, inputs and assumptions, methodology, and results of the policy analysis in detail. The intended audience is the technical modeler, analyst, or reviewer who seeks to understand specifically the modeling effort within this initial analytical phase, with the end-goal of interpreting, re-producing, or modifying the simulations or extending the models to conduct follow-on studies subsequently. These studies may examine in greater detail the energy sector, impacts to emissions, charging station infrastructure needs, and overall benefits-cost trade of the policy, among other areas of interest.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

One Health Assessment of Bacillus anthracis Incidence and Detection in Anthrax-Endemic Areas of Pakistan

Anthrax, a severe zoonotic disease, is infrequently reported in anthrax-endemic regions of Pakistan. Despite clinical reports indicating its presence, particularly cutaneous anthrax, there is insufficient laboratory evidence regarding disease occurrence and environmental persistence. The present study aimed to confirm Bacillus anthracis presence, accountable for animal mortality and human infection, while exploring environmental transmission factors. Between March 2019 and July 2021, a total of 19 outbreaks were documented. Of these, 11 affected sheep/goats in Zhob district and 8 affected cattle/sheep in Bajour Agency. Clinical signs suggestive of Bacillus anthracis outbreak were observed in 11 animals. Blood and swab samples were collected for confirmation. The study followed a One Health approach, analyzing animal, environmental (soil/plant), and human samples. Of the 19 outbreaks, 11 were confirmed positive for anthrax based on growth characteristics, colony morphology, and PCR. Soil and plant root samples from the outbreak areas were collected and analyzed microscopically and molecularly. Cutaneous anthrax was observed in six humans, and swab samples were taken from the lesions. Human serum samples (n = 156) were tested for IgG antibodies against PA toxin and quantitative analysis of anthrax toxin receptor 1 (ANTXR1). Bacillus anthracis was detected in 65 out of 570 (11.40%) soil samples and 19 out of 190 (10%) plant root samples from the outbreak areas. Four out of six human samples from cutaneous anthrax lesions tested positive for Bacillus anthracis. Human anthrax seroprevalence was found to be 11% and 9% in two districts, with the highest rates among butchers and meat consumers. The highest ANTXR1 levels were observed in butchers, followed by meat consumers, farm employees, meat vendors, veterinarians, and farm owners. These findings highlight the persistence of anthrax in the region and emphasize the potential public health risks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrological projections over the Upper Indus Basin at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C temperature increase

We analyse an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) to investigate future water availability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of Pakistan for the time horizons when the global and/or regional warming levels cross Paris Agreement (PA) targets. The GCMs data is obtained from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Based on the five best performing GCMs, we note that global 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming thresholds are projected in 2026 and 2047 under RCP4.5 and 2022 and 3036 under RCP8.5 respectively while these thresholds are reached much earlier over Pakistan i.e. 2016 and 2030 under RCP4.5 and 2012 and 2025 under RCP8.5 respectively. Interestingly, the GCMs with the earliest emergence at the global scale are not necessarily the ones with the earliest emergence over Pakistan, highlighting spatial non-linearity in GCMs response. The emergence of 2.0 °C warming at global scale across 5 GCMs ranges from 2031 (CCSM4) to 2049 (NorESM) under RCP8.5. Precipitation generally exhibits a progressive increasing trend with stronger changes at higher warming or radiative forcing levels. Hydrological simulations representing the historical, 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global and region warming time horizons indicate a robust but seasonally varying increase in the inflows. The highest inflows in the baseline and future are witnessed in July. However, the highest future increase in inflows is projected in October under RCP4.5 (37.99% and 65.11% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C) and in April under RCP8.5 (37% and 62.05% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C). These hydrological changes are driven by increases in the snow and glacial melt contribution, which are more pronounced at 2.0 °C warming level. These findings should help for effective water management in Pakistan over the coming decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance Assessment of Pakistani Central Receiver Plant Case Study Using Aimpoint Strategy Optimization Tools

Pakistan has a high potential for both photovoltaic and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) deployment to meet its energy requirements. Previous feasibility studies have shown that a variety of CSP technologies are both technically and economically viable in the Pakistani climate and can significantly mitigate the country's current lack of grid reliability. This work aims to enhance the performance of a previously designed Central Receiver System (CRS) plant for Pakistan using state-of-the-art aimpoint optimization methods. Results from our case study show that optimized aiming strategies have increased practicality due to their adherence to flux limitations on the receiver, and offer ~2.4% more thermal energy delivered to the receiver for the Pakistani case study compared to modern performance characterization software, translating to up to 149 additional hours of nameplate-capacity production to address the shortfall in an electricity-starved market.

central receiver system↗
DOE OSTI2020

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Overview of Policies Influencing Air Pollution from the Electricity Sector in South Asia

The electricity sector is a substantial source of air pollution and associated health problems in South Asia and elsewhere. Fossil-fueled power plants emit a wide variety of harmful pollutants. Those with the greatest health impacts are particulate matter and ozone. Once released into the atmosphere, there is no practical way to remove air pollutants, which means that policies designed to improve air quality have to limit the pollutants before release. However, tackling such pollution is challenging because developing economies also need to provide electricity as a basic necessity for their citizens and as an engine of economic growth. This report provides examples of policies impacting air pollution from the fossil-fuel electricity sector in the South Asian countries of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Some of this information was difficult to locate, so this is not a comprehensive study, but rather an overview or "scan" of the sector that includes examples of (1) policies that directly regulate air quality by limiting emissions from specific point sources (by restricting operating hours, for instance), and (2) indirect policies that incentivize or disincentivize polluting activities, such as policies to encourage fuel switching, for example. The report shows (1) the great variation among the policy instruments used in each country, (2) that many countries, especially those that have a mismatch between seasonal demand and resource availability, could improve energy security and reduce air pollution through increased cross-border electricity trade, and (3) some countries have contradictory policies (promoting both coal and renewables, for instance).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Load Factor and Unserved Energy Webinar

This presentation consists of slides from a webinar given on October 25, 2019. The slides give an overview of load factor forecasting and how it can be incorporated into energy and power demand forecasts, with a special eye towards accounting for unserved energy. It includes case studies from other countries, highlighting how load factor is used in their individual load forecasts. The slides then review and compare various load forecasts for Pakistan's electricity grid.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of aerosol cloud interactions with a consistent signal of meteorology and other influencing parameters

Quantifying the impact of aerosols on cloud micro/macro physical properties and estimating the signature of Aerosol Cloud Interactions (ACI) is one of the challenging tasks in atmospheric sciences. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-5 reanalysis data are employed to systematically study the ACI over the monsoon region in Pakistan. Based on the monsoon occurrence and rainfall intensity, the whole region is divided into three sub-regions labeled as highly intensive (R1), moderately intensive (R2) and weak (R3) monsoon region. The results indicate that the monthly mean Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) peaks in the summer monsoon months (Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep). Here, the well-known Twomey effect whereby the Cloud Droplet Radius (CDR) decreases with increasing AOD holds only over R3; the opposite effects (Anti-Twomey effect) are found over R1 and R2, all passing the test of statistical significance (p<0.05). The multi-year AOD is found to be positively correlated with Cloud Liquid Water Path (CLWP) and Cloud Optical Depth (COD) over R1 and R2, suggesting that thicker clouds containing more water droplets are formed in polluted atmosphere. Over R3, decreases in CLWP and COD are found with increasing AOD only when AOD is less than~0.325. The analysis of ACI over R1 and R2 during the winter months shows similar but stronger responses of CDR, CLWP and COD to the variation in AOD. The weaker responses during the summer monsoon season may attributed to the occurrence of high level cloud and unstable atmospheric condition. Further investigation of the influences of Relative Humidity and pressure vertical velocity on the CDR-AOD relationships shows that although the magnitude of the CDR-AOD correlations change with meteorological conditions, the sign of correlations remain unchanged with meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bioconversion and quantification of humic substances from low rank coals using indigenous fungal isolates

The major portion of coals around the world belongs to lignitic origin, and burning of these Low Rank Coals (LRCs) not only produces energy, but also release harmful gases into the environment. On the other hand, coal is a mega source of fossilized carbon compounds that can be utilized in diverse range of carbon/organic industries. Biosolubilization is one of the safest and economical way to consume these LRCs for the harvest of humic and fulvic acids for industrial applications. Present studies deal with solubilization of coal samples from five different mines of Punjab, Pakistan by indigenously isolated fungus. From a number of indigenously isolated fungal isolates, an isolate NF-2 was selected based on its solubilization potential on solid Sabouraud medium. The intensity of coal biosolubilization was found maximum for coal sample B-1 (59%) and lowest for sample B-26 (17.2%) with 5% (w/v) pulp density at 28 ± 2°C. Humification index value (A 4 /A 6 ) for biosolubilized products of coal sample B-1 was found 6.18 which was much higher than the A 4 /A 6 value (4.27) of commercially available standard humic acid. Biosolubilized products from coal sample B-1 was found maximum with 8681 mg/L humic acid concentration as determined by standard curve method. FTIR and FE-SEM analyses of sample B-1 treated with NF-2 confirmed the structural break down and solubilization of coal. Molecular identification of fungal isolate NF-2 showed 100% similarity to Aspergillus flavus. Here, this work paves the way to utilize lignitic coals for the environment friendly and low-cost production of humic acids by fungal biosolubilization as an alternate to chemical methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗