MULTIVARIATE WIDE-SENSE MARKOV PROCESSES AND PREDICTION THEORY
Multivariate wide-sense markov processes and prediction theory
MARKOV↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity
The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.
Schatten, Kenneth H.↗
A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22 - Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km
Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.
Schatten, K. H.↗
A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km
Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.
Schatten, K. H.↗
Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application
A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg- Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application.
Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗
Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application
A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg-Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. (The use of ISO 281:2007 with a fatigue limit in these calculations would result in a bearing life approaching infinity.) Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application. Rules had been developed to distinguish and compare predicted lives with those actually obtained. Based upon field and test results of 51 ball and roller bearing sets, 98 percent of these bearing sets had acceptable life results using the Lundberg- Palmgren equations with life adjustment factors to predict bearing life. That is, they had lives equal to or greater than that predicted. The Lundberg-Palmgren model was used to predict the life of a commercial turboprop gearbox. The life prediction was compared with the field lives of 64 gearboxes. From these results, the roller bearing lives exhibited a load-life exponent of 5.2, which correlated with the Zaretsky model. The use of the ANSI/ABMA and ISO standards load-life exponent of 10/3 to predict roller bearing life is not reflective of modern roller bearings and will underpredict bearing lives.
Life prediction↗
Nuclear–Electronic Orbital General Rate Theory: Predicting Hydrogen Kinetic Isotope Effects in the Deep Tunneling Regime
Hydrogen transfer is a critical component of many chemical and biological processes. The ratio of rate constants for hydrogen and deuterium transfer defines the H/D kinetic isotope effect (KIE), which is a powerful tool for elucidating hydrogen transfer mechanisms. Interpretation of experimental H/D KIEs relies on accurate and affordable computational methods. However, due to their light mass, hydrogen and deuterium can undergo tunneling, which is challenging to describe in multidimensional molecular systems. Herein, we introduce the nuclear–electronic orbital general rate theory (NEO-GRT), which enables the efficient prediction of H/D KIEs based on full-dimensional molecular quantum chemistry calculations. The NEO-GRT approach describes the hydrogen transfer rate constant with a general expression that spans the vibrationally adiabatic and nonadiabatic hydrogen tunneling regimes. The input quantities are computed using NEO density functional theory, which treats the transferring hydrogen or deuterium nucleus quantum mechanically on the same level as the electrons. We investigate two intramolecular proton transfer reactions in organic molecules at temperatures down to 50 K to evaluate the performance of NEO-GRT by comparison to transition state theory and ring-polymer instanton theory. The KIEs computed with NEO-GRT agree with those calculated using ring-polymer instanton theory for the full-dimensional molecular systems at the same level of electronic structure theory. This agreement indicates that NEO-GRT captures the deep hydrogen tunneling effects, in contrast to transition state theory, which neglects such effects. Given its relatively low computational cost, NEO-GRT is a promising approach for predicting H/D KIEs in large organic and organometallic systems.
Hydrogen↗
Investigation of the Jet Noise Prediction Theory and Application Utilizing the PAO Formulation
Application of the Phillips theory to engineering calculations of rocket and high speed jet noise radiation is reported. Presented are a detailed derivation of the theory, the composition of the numerical scheme, and discussions of the practical problems arising in the application of the present noise prediction method. The present method still contains some empirical elements, yet it provides a unified approach in the prediction of sound power, spectrum, and directivity.
Source record↗
The unified acoustic and aerodynamic prediction theory of advanced propellers in the time domain
This paper presents some numerical results for the noise of an advanced supersonic propeller based on a formulation published last year. This formulation was derived to overcome some of the practical numerical difficulties associated with other acoustic formulations. The approach is based on the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equation and time domain analysis is used. To illustrate the method of solution, a model problem in three dimensions and based on the Laplace equation is solved. A brief sketch of derivation of the acoustic formula is then given. Another model problem is used to verify validity of the acoustic formulation. A recent singular integral equation for aerodynamic applications derived from the acoustic formula is also presented here.
Farassat, F.↗
Volcanic processes and landforms on Venus - Theory, predictions, and observations
The ascent and eruption of magma on Venus in the current Venusian environment is modeled, taking into account the influence of extreme surface temperatures and pressures. Comparison of present predictions with observations obtained from Pioneer Venus, Arecibo, and Venera data support a picture of regional pyroclastic deposits being very rare, magma contents not usually exceeding about 4 wt pct, and the atmospheric pressure having been about the same as the present value over a time period equivalent to the average age of the northern areas of the northern hemisphere. Data suggest that numerous eruptions had effusion rates exceeding common terrestrial rates, and that shield volcanoes are often wide, but are low relative to those on Mars and earth. Implications of the proposed Venusian reduction of the driving density contrast include dike intrusion being very common, and large minimum magma volumes being required to ensure surface eruptions.
Head, James W., III↗
Transient Growth Theory Prediction of Optimal Placing of Passive and Active Flow Control Devices for Separation Delay in LPT Airfoils
An analysis of the non-modal growth of perturbations in a boundary layer in the presence of a streamwise pressure gradient is presented. The analysis is based on PSE equations for an incompressible fluid. Examples with Falkner-Skan profiles indicate that a favorable pressure gradient decreases the non-modal growth while an unfavorable pressure gradient leads to an increase of the amplification. It is suggested that the transient growth mechanism be utilized to choose optimal parameters of tripping elements on a low-pressure turbine (LPT) airfoil. As an example, a boundary layer flow with a streamwise pressure gradient corresponding to the pressure distribution over a LPT airfoil is considered. It is shown that there is an optimal spacing of the tripping elements and that the transient growth effect depends on the starting point. At very low Reynolds numbers, there is a possibility to enhance the transient energy growth by means of wall cooling.
Tumin, Anatoli↗
A Microgravity Experiment to Test Scaling Theory Predictions Near the (sup 3)He Liquid-Gas Critical Point
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critical phenomena liquid-gas critical point↗
A Predictive Theory for Heat Transport Into Ice Shelf Cavities
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G. Finucane↗
Building bridges between nuclear structure and reactions
The past couple of decades have seen tremendous advances in nuclear structure and reaction theory. Innovative theory frameworks for describing the nuclear many-body system, increasingly powerful computers, and opportunities for confronting theory predictions with data on unstable nuclei, have been driving the field. An important goal is to move from phenomenological ingredients in reaction calculations to predictive theories based on microscopic frameworks. We discuss ongoing efforts aimed at integrating microscopic descriptions of nuclear structure into reaction predictions for medium-mass and heavy nuclei. This contribution highlights areas where Eric Bauge, a champion for building bridges, has made important contributions by encouraging and enabling collaborations between communities with complementary expertise.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
On Theoretical Broadband Shock-Associated Noise Near-Field Cross-Spectra
The cross-spectral acoustic analogy is used to predict auto-spectra and cross-spectra of broadband shock-associated noise in the near-field and far-field from a range of heated and unheated supersonic off-design jets. A single equivalent source model is proposed for the near-field, mid-field, and far-field terms, that contains flow-field statistics of the shock wave shear layer interactions. Flow-field statistics are modeled based upon experimental observation and computational fluid dynamics solutions. An axisymmetric assumption is used to reduce the model to a closed-form equation involving a double summation over the equivalent source at each shock wave shear layer interaction. Predictions are compared with a wide variety of measurements at numerous jet Mach numbers and temperature ratios from multiple facilities. Auto-spectral predictions of broadband shock-associated noise in the near-field and far-field capture trends observed in measurement and other prediction theories. Predictions of spatial coherence of broadband shock-associated noise accurately capture the peak coherent intensity, frequency, and spectral width.
Miller, Steven A. E.↗
An approximate theory of prediction for data compression.
Prediction-comparison system for data compression, noting nonlinear error feedback and advantage of closed-loop predictor
PREDICTION THEORY↗
Orbit prediction accuracy theory
Equations for estimating orbit prediction accuracy theory, with partial derivatives calculated from two-body elliptical orbit theory
ORBIT EQUATION↗
Layered synthetic microstructures as Bragg diffractors for X rays and extreme ultraviolet - Theory and predicted performance
The theory of X-ray diffraction by periodic structures is applied to the layered synthetic microstructures (LSMs) made possible by recent developments in thin film technology, and approximate formulas for estimating their performance are presented. A more complete computation scheme based on optical multilayer theory is also described, and it is shown that the diffracting properties may be tailored to specific applications by adjusting the refractive indices and thicknesses of the component layers. The theory may be modified to take account of imperfections in the LMS structure, and the properties of nonperiodic structures thereby computed. Structures with high integrated reflectivity constructed according to the methods defined have potential application in many areas of X-ray or EUV research and instrumentation.
Underwood, J. H.↗