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At least 19 records

Population Count on Intel® CPU, GPU, and FPGA

Population count is a primitive used in many applications. Commodity processors have dedicated instructions for achieving high-performance population count. Motivated by the productivity of high-level synthesis and the importance of population count, in this paper we investigated the OpenCL implementations of population count algorithms, and evaluated their performance and resource utilizations on an FPGA. Based on the results, we select the most efficient implementation. Then we derived a reduction pattern from a representative application of population count. We parallelized the reduction with atomic functions, and optimized it with vectorized memory accesses, tree reduction, and compute-unit duplication. We evaluated the performance of the reduction kernel on an Intel (R) Xeon (R) CPU and an Intel (R) IrisT Pro integrated GPU, and an FPGA card that features an Intel (R) Arria (R) 10 FPGA. When DRAM memory bandwidth is comparable on the three computing platforms, the FPGA can achieve the highest kernel performance for large workload. On the other hand, we described performance bottlenecks on the FPGA. To make FPGAs more competitive in raw performance compared to high-performant CPU and GPU platforms, it is important to increase external memory bandwidth, minimize data movement between a host and a device, and reduce OpenCL runtime overhead on an FPGA.

heterogeneous computing↗

A Comparison of Infectious Disease Forecasting Methods across Locations, Diseases, and Time

Accurate infectious disease forecasting can inform efforts to prevent outbreaks and mitigate adverse impacts. This study compares the performance of statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) approaches in forecasting infectious disease incidences across different countries and time intervals. We forecasted three diverse diseases: campylobacteriosis, typhoid, and Q-fever, using a wide variety of features (n = 46) from public datasets, e.g., landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. We compared autoregressive statistical models to two tree-based ML models (extreme gradient boosted trees [XGB] and random forest [RF]) and two DL models (multi-layer perceptron and encoder–decoder model). The disease models were trained on data from seven different countries at the region-level between 2009–2017. Forecasting performance of all models was assessed using mean absolute error, root mean square error, and Poisson deviance across Australia, Israel, and the United States for the months of January through August of 2018. The overall model results were compared across diseases as well as various data splits, including country, regions with highest and lowest cases, and the forecasted months out (i.e., nowcasting, short-term, and long-term forecasting). Overall, the XGB models performed the best for all diseases and, in general, tree-based ML models performed the best when looking at data splits. There were a few instances where the statistical or DL models had minutely smaller error metrics for specific subsets of typhoid, which is a disease with very low case counts. Feature importance per disease was measured by using four tree-based ML models (i.e., XGB and RF with and without region name as a feature). The most important feature groups included previous case counts, region name, population counts and density, mortality causes of neonatal to under 5 years of age, sanitation factors, and elevation. This study demonstrates the power of ML approaches to incorporate a wide range of factors to forecast various diseases, regardless of location, more accurately than traditional statistical approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Dasymetric-Based Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to the Probabilistic Analysis of Spatial Variables

Monte Carlo simulation is a popular numerical experimentation technique used in a range of scientific fields to obtain the statistics of unknown random output variables. Despite its widespread applicability, it can be difficult to infer required input probability distributions when they are related to population counts unknown at desired spatial resolutions. To overcome this challenge, we propose a framework that uses a dasymetric model to infer the probability distributions needed for a specific class of Monte Carlo simulations which depend on population counts.

Morton, April↗

LandCast Mosaic: Reconstructing Global Population Distributions, 1975-2025

LandCast Mosaic (LCM) provides a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset spanning 1975–2025, representing annual, scenario-consistent estimates of daytime, nighttime, and ambient population distributions. LCM builds on the 2025 LandScan Mosaic (LSM) population data by backcasting to earlier years using historical changes in built-surface area derived from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) and authoritative population counts from international datasets. The workflow scales 2025 building-informed gridded population estimates according to observed changes in built surface, applies linear interpolation for intermediate years, and normalizes estimates to match administrative- and country-level totals. The resulting dataset offers consistent, globally gridded population estimates over fifty years, suitable for temporal analyses of population dynamics, disaster risk modeling, and urban planning applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗

Complexity of bioindicator selection for ecological, human, and cultural health: Chinook salmon and red knot as case studies

There is considerable interest in developing bioindicators of ecological health that are also useful indicators for human health. Yet, human health assessment usually encompasses physical/chemical exposures and not cultural well-being. In this paper, we propose that bioindicators can be selected for all three purposes. We use Chinook or king salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and red knot (Calidris canutus rufa, a sandpiper) as examples of indicators that can be used to assess human, ecological, and cultural health. Even so, selecting endpoints or metrics for each indicator species is complex and is explored in this paper. Here, we suggest that there are several endpoint types to examine for a given species, including physical environment, environmental stressors, habitat, life history, demography, population counts, and cultural/societal aspects. Usually cultural endpoints are economic indicators (e.g., number of days fished, number of hunting licenses), rather than the importance of a fishing culture. Development of cultural/societal endpoints must include the perceptions of local communities, cultural groups, and tribal nations, as well as governmental and regulatory communities (although not usually so defined, the latter have cultures as well). Endpoint selection in this category is difficult because the underlying issues need to be identified and used to develop endpoints that tribes and stakeholders themselves see as reasonable surrogates of the qualities they value. We describe several endpoints for salmon and knots that can be used for ecological, human, and cultural/societal health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SIGNAL Game Manual

SIGNAL is a first of its kind experimental wargame developed as part of the Project on Nuclear Gaming (PoNG). In this document we describe the rules and game mechanics associated with the online version of SIGNAL created by team members from the University of California, Berkeley, Sandia National Laboratories, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. The game was developed as part of a larger research project to develop the experimental wargaming methodology and explore its use on a model scenario: the impact of various military capabilities on conflict escalation dynamics. We discuss the results of this research in a forthcoming paper that will include this manual as an appendix. It is our hope that this manual will both contribute to our players' understanding of the game prior to play and that it will allow for replication of the SIGNAL game environment for future research purposes. The manual begins by introducing the terminology used throughout the document. It then outlines the technical requirements required to run SIGNAL. The following section provides a description of the map, resources, infrastructure, tokens, and action cards used in the game environment. The manual then describes the user interface including the chat functions, trade mechanism, currency and population counts necessary for players to plan their actions. It then turns to the sequence of player actions in the game describing the signaling, action, and upkeep phases that comprise each round of play. It then outlines the use of diplomacy including alliances with minor states and trade between players. The manual also describes the process for scoring the game and determining the winner. The manual concludes with tips for players to remember as they embark upon playing the game.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Spatio-temporal Estimates of Disease Transmission Parameters for COVID-19 with a Fully-Coupled, County-Level Model of the United States

Sandia National Laboratories has developed a capability to estimate parameters of epidemiological models from case reporting data to support responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. A differentiating feature of this work is the ability to simultaneously estimate county-specific disease transmission parameters in a nation-wide model that considers mobility between counties. The approach is focused on estimating parameters in a stochastic SEIR model that considers mobility between model patches (i.e., counties) as well as additional infectious compartments. The inference engine developed by Sandia includes (1) reconstruction and (2) transmission parameter inference. Reconstruction involves estimating current population counts within each of the compartments in a modified SEIR model from reported case data. Reconstruction produces input for the inference formulations, and it provides initial conditions that can be used in other modeling and planning efforts. Inference involves the solution of a large-scale optimization problem to estimate the time profiles for the transmission parameters in each county. These provide quantification of changes in the transmission parameter over time (e.g., due to impact of intervention strategies). This capability has been implemented in a Python-based software package, epi_inference, that makes extensive use of Pyomo [5] and IPOPT [10] to formulate and solve the inference formulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The spatial allocation of population: a review of large-scale gridded population data products and their fitness for use

Population data represent an essential component in studies focusing on human–nature interrelationships, disaster risk assessment and environmental health. Several recent efforts have produced global- and continental-extent gridded population data which are becoming increasingly popular among various research communities. However, these data products, which are of very different characteristics and based on different modeling assumptions, have never been systematically reviewed and compared, which may impede their appropriate use. This article fills this gap and presents, compares and discusses a set of large-scale (global and continental) gridded datasets representing population counts or densities. It focuses on data properties, methodological approaches and relative quality aspects that are important to fully understand the characteristics of the data with regard to the intended uses. Written by the data producers and members of the user community, through the lens of the “fitness for use” concept, the aim of this paper is to provide potential data users with the knowledge base needed to make informed decisions about the appropriateness of the data products available in relation to the target application and for critical analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Terra-Populus v0.1: A Python Library for LandScan High-Definition Population Analysis and Modeling

The terra-populus library is designed for use by the LandScan HD technical team, offering a streamlined set of tools for generating and updating LandScan HD datasets from foundational building-level data, referred to as 'molecules,' provided by the building-level attribution team. This document serves as the primary technical documentation for terra-populus. Version 0.1 of the library includes the core modeling components necessary for LandScan HD production. It enables the generation of the LandScan HD Baseline dataset as well as corresponding confidence measures for the occupancy rates used. Parameters have been included for incorporating damaged building indicators and changes in population, to faciliate the creation of rapid updates for LandScan HD. Future iterations of terra-populus will introduce tools for creating a confidence index, and quantifying and propagating uncertainty, facilitating the creation of probabilistic LandScan HD outputs. This report provides an overview of the tools available in the library and the corresponding code implementations. One of the key advancements implemented in terra-populus is a redefinition of the atomic modeling unit for LandScan HD. Traditionally, the LandScan HD vector analytical framework has generated population estimates at the building sub-component (molecule) level. However, terra-populus adopts a building-level modeling approach. This shift is an operational decision aimed at aligning LandScan HD outputs with confidence measures, which are computed and validated at the building level (confidence measures are not included in this version of terra-populus, aside from those associated with the occupancy rates). Additional advancements to the LandScan HD modeling, as implemented by terra-populus, include a minimum population value parameter and an auto assignment of building floor counts. The population minimum value was implemented to prevent buildings and subsequent LandScan HD pixels that contained small values that may not rasterize in production. An 'auto' value has been included as a method for dealing with buildings lacking floor count information, where it is the average floor count of all other buildings with a residential building use type tag. The logic behind this is to remain consistent with the current logic employed for dealing with building use type null instances, where a null use type is defaulted to residential since it is the most common building type. The auto logic is intended to apply the most common building floor count of the most common type of buildings. The tools provided in terra-populus represent a significant step forward in improving the efficiency, reproducibility, and transparency of the LandScan HD modeling process. As the library evolves, it will continue to serve as a foundational resource for high-resolution population modeling.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Weather conditions and date influence male Sage Grouse attendance rates at leks

For lek‐breeding birds, lek attendance can be correlated with mating success. Variability in lek attendance could confound interpretation of male reproductive effort and complicate the use of lek counts as an index to monitor abundance. We assessed the daily probability of male Sage Grouse Centrocercus urophasianus lek attendance and explored implications of attendance on lek counts. We fitted 145 males with global positioning system ( GPS ) transmitters over 4 years in Carbon County, Wyoming. We evaluated influences of lek size and topography, date, weather, and bird characteristics such as age on daily morning lek attendance. The daily probability of attendance ranged considerably each year, from 0.120 ( , 95% CI 0.051–0.259) in 2012 to 0.917 (95% CI 0.844–0.957) in 2013 with peak attendance dates ranging from 8 April (2012) to 11 May (2011). Attendance decreased with increasing precipitation on the observation day. Only 44–79% of lek counts occurred on days without precipitation and with high attendance (i.e. within 0.1 probability of peak predicted attendance). Although lek counts and population abundance, predicted using attendance rates, followed a similar trend, the relationship was not significantly correlated. We provide empirical evidence supporting current lek‐count protocols: managers should avoid counting leks on days with precipitation because attendance is reduced. Although managers sometimes only complete one to two lek counts per year on active leks, completing at least three lek counts as recommended in protocols increases chances for higher male counts and improves the relationship between counts and abundance. Attendance varies annually, making it challenging to use lek counts to assess regional population trends over short time periods unless attendance is accounted for.

Fremgen, Aleshia L.↗

A Search for Neutrino Point-source Populations in 7 yr of IceCube Data with Neutrino-count Statistics

The presence of a population of point sources in a data set modifies the underlying neutrino-count statistics from the Poisson distribution. This deviation can be exactly quantified using the non-Poissonian template fitting technique, and in this work we present the first application of this approach to the IceCube high-energy neutrino data set. Using this method, we search in 7 yr of IceCube data for point-source populations correlated with the disk of the Milky Way, the Fermi bubbles, the Schlegel, Finkbeiner, and Davis dust map, or with the isotropic extragalactic sky. No evidence for such a population is found in the data using this technique, and in the absence of a signal, we establish constraints on population models with source-count distribution functions that can be described by a power law with a single break. Here, the derived limits can be interpreted in the context of many possible source classes. In order to enhance the flexibility of the results, we publish the full posterior from our analysis, which can be used to establish limits on specific population models that would contribute to the observed IceCube neutrino flux.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Axenisation of oleaginous microalgal cultures via anoxic photosensitisation

Growing interest in sustainable food and biofuel research has necessitated high quality axenic oleaginous microalgal strains. Unfortunately, most strains available in culture banks contain commensal microbes such as bacteria and the default decontamination method involves antibiotic treatment which has begun to exacerbate the emergence of antibiotic resistance. To overcome this problem, anoxic photosensitisation was investigated as an alternate approach. Four oleaginous microalgal species (Tetradesmus obliquus, Desmodesmus armatus, Chlorella vulgaris and Nannochloropsis limnetica) were incubated in varying concentrations of Rose Bengal (0 μM, 1 μM, 3 μM or 9 μM) either in normal (oxic) or anoxic conditions, for 72 h under light (8.85 ± 0.4 W/m 2 ) in a specially designed heterotrophic growth complex (HGC) medium, followed by 72 h in standard Bold's Basal Medium (BBM). Commonly used antibiotics-based protocol was used as the control method. Post treatment, cell numbers and percentage populations were counted with Flow Cytometry, and viability was tested using standard plating methods using BBM and LB. Additionally, the contaminating microbes in the cultures were profiled using 16Ss rRNA sequencing. Anoxic conditions were able to significantly decrease bacterial content, albeit with an equally detrimental effect on the microalgal population. Although the responses differed between the microalgae, anoxic incubation along with Rose Bengal at 3 μM was able to completely decontaminate N. limnetica and C. vulgaris, while D. armatus and T. obliquus could be decontaminated with an additional streak-plating step. None of the cultures could be decontaminated using antibiotics treatment. These results suggest that axenisation of microalgal cultures was largely due to anoxy, that was synergistically enhanced by Rose Bengal at a concentration of ≥3 μM.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

LandScan HD

Research in geographic information science and technology at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is addressing the need for improved human settlement detection and characterization at the world scale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparison of Approach-to-Critical Results in Current and Pulse Mode for Systems with High Starter Neutron Rates

Reactors and critical assemblies use a variety of detection systems to monitor the neutron population. The count rate is proportional to the neutron flux present at the location of the detector. When such systems are placed external to an assembly, it is often assumed that the relative leakage multiplication will be proportional to the detector count rate (assuming that the source term, system geometry, and detector placement have not changed). Such systems are often used in an approach-to-critical during reactor startup to ensure that the critical configuration is well predicted. Various types of detectors have been used during an approach-to-critical. These include 3 He, BF 3 , ion chambers, fission chambers, and fission foils. Any of these types of systems (or others) should work well when adequate counting statistics are available. These detector systems can be operated in either pulse or current mode. The National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) has two detection systems that are commonly used in critical assembly operations. The start-up (referred to as "SU" in this work) system is made up of 3 He proportional counters in pulse mode and the linear counter system (referred to as "LC" in this work) consists of compensated ion-chambers in current mode. Typically the SU system is used for approach-to-critical operations and the LC system is only used at/above delayed critical ( k eff = 1). This work investigates the use of the LC system for an approach-to-critical. It has been long hypothesized that such an approach would be feasible for systems with high starter neutron rates.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗

Male greater sage‐grouse movements among leks

ABSTRACT Movements among leks by breeding birds (i.e., interlek movements) could affect the population's genetic flow, complicate use of lek counts as a population index, and indicate a change in breeding behavior following a disturbance. We used a Bayesian multi‐state mark‐recapture model to assess the daily probability of male greater sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) interlek movements and estimate factors influencing movements among leks. We fitted 145 males with solar Argos global positioning systems platform transmitter terminals over 4 years (2011–2014) in Carbon County, Wyoming, USA. The daily probability of a male sage‐grouse moving among leks ranged 0.003 (95% CI = 0.000–0.010) in 2011 to 0.010 (95% CI = 0.001–0.021) in 2013, indicating high daily lek fidelity throughout the season, although there was a 5–42% chance annually a male would move at least once to another lek throughout the season ( days analyzed/M = 55 ± 3.3 days [SE]). Interlek movement probabilities were strongly affected by day of year, peaking early in the lek season. Interlek movements were positively associated with elevation. Seasonal interlek movements occurred more frequently than previously reported, and can bias lek counts in early spring as males move from low to high elevation leks, which reinforces interlek movements as a critical component of lek ecology. © 2016 The Wildlife Society.

Fremgen, Aleshia L.↗

Integrated Component-Specific Measurements to Develop Emission Factors for Compressors and Gas Gathering Lines

The Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and other critical stakeholders (e.g., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), state regulators, and industry) seek to more accurately characterize and quantify methane emissions from compressors and gathering lines within the Gathering and Boosting (G&B) segment of the natural gas system network. These efforts will reduce uncertainties in emissions estimates in USEPA’s current Green House Gas Inventory (GHGI) under their Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP). For this study, four G&B stations in the Gulf Coast Area were visited four times over the course of one year. Components were classified according to equipment and component type and emissions from select components were measured using multiple measurement technologies. The following major equipment types were considered: i) compressors, ii) separators, iii) dehydrators, iv) coalescers, v) slug catchers, vi) yard piping, vii) tanks, and viii) gathering lines. Individual components on each equipment type were further divided into the following main categories: i) connectors, ii) valves, iii) pressure relief valves (PRV), iv) meters, v) gauges, vi) regulators, vii) pneumatic device vents, and viii) compressor vents (e.g., distance piece vents [DPVs] and rod packing vents [RPVs]). Components were screened for the presence of leaks and venting emissions with an optical gas imaging (OGI) camera, and methane emission rates were measured using a microdilution high volume sampler. Downwind emissions were measured using an Open Path Fourier Transform Infrared (OP-FTIR) Spectrometer. Data were evaluated to assess correlation with site, equipment, time, and operational variables. Key findings and recommendations from the study include: A) Different counting methodologies can result in vastly different component counts, thus influencing total emissions calculations using Subpart W population EFs. A standard methodology should be adopted for classifying and counting components in order to minimize inconsistencies across studies and instruct stakeholders responsible for GHGI reporting. B) Results support current component subcategories listed in USEPA Subpart W, including the subdivision of connectors (flanged and “other”) and pneumatic device vents (intermittent, continuous low bleed, and continuous high bleed). C) Emission rates vary across sites and a relationship between higher emissions and compressor age was observed for some components. D) Component emission rates varied between field campaigns. The type of components contributing to overall measured emissions also varied among field campaigns. However, the emission rate variability was larger between different components (of the same category) than the variability in one component over the four field campaigns. Therefore, when calculating emission factors, it is not necessary to take repeat measurements to capture component variability. E) Measuring the emission rate of a sample for an extended period of time is not necessary to capture the average component emission rate. F) For reporting purposes, excluding liquid lines from site-wide screening may have a negligible effect on component-related emissions. However, from a site management perspective, malfunctioning components were not uncommon on liquid lines and contributed substantially to fugitive emissions at some sites. G) Population EFs, whether including or excluding liquid lines, were a conservative estimate of fugitive emissions. Leaker EFs consistently underestimated emissions at the field sites. Measurements at more sites, particularity sites in other areas of the country, need to be completed before determining the accuracy of EFs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗